monty57

My worry is that now that it seems the Brewers may have finally realized that they may need to trade some guys away, most of the guys they'd be willing to trade are damaged. Ramirez has been sidelined twice with his knee, which still hasn't been repaired. He currently has to sit a couple of times a week, and I think there's a good chance he's going to need surgery to fix it and is simply hoping he can make it to the offseason before going under the knife. Best case is he plays 70-80% of the rest of the games this season. Worst case is he needs surgery and misses at least a few months (which would be a large part of the remainder of his contract). Hart insisted he'd be back early, and was only put on the 60-day DL because the team was in a pinch. The 60 days were up about a week ago, and he hasn't even started his rehab assignment. Prior to the season, the doctor who gave him a second opinion said he'd need a more invasive surgery to fix what was wrong, but that surgery would cost him the season, so he opted for the less invasive surgery. Gallardo has lost velocity, and I haven't heard any reason why. It seems obvious that this loss in velocity is why he's getting knocked around. What's not obvious is whether or not the loss in velocity is permanent. Without some type of assurance that he's going to return to his pre-2013 form, I think teams would be wise to steer clear of him lest they get stuck paying a lot of money for a back-of-the-rotation starter. This one's really sad, because they could get a ton of talent in return for a healthy Gallardo. Axford pitched himself out of the closer's role. He's pitched better since, but probably isn't bringing much back in return. Weeks has played so poorly that we'd probably have to pay most of his salary just get someone to take him off our hands. We probably won't trade Lucroy, and he'd still have value, but his play this year has diminished his value some. Meanwhile Maldonado (who many thought could be a big trade chip this offseason) probably has very little trade value at the moment. Estrada has pitched poorly and now has a bad hamstring (I'm assuming). No telling when he'll be back (or if he'll even miss time). If he's healthy and can turn things around over the next month+, he could bring back some value from a team looking for back-of-the-rotation help, but if he keeps pitching the way he has so far this year, he's not bringing anything back. Henderson has pitched well, but is on the DL with a bad hammy. Hopefully he'll be back soon and will hit the ground running when he returns. Now that he's a "proven closer," he could net a lot more than he could've as simply a "setup guy." Most of our minor leaguers have played bad enough that they wouldn't have as much value as a "throw in" in a bigger trade. Unfortunately, the guys who could bring back some type of "future altering" return are the guys no one wants to trade. My guess is that one of Aoki / Gomez will get dealt for a decent return, K-Rod will get dealt soon (when Henderson's back) for a high-floor/low-ceiling RP prospect, and we'll find a way to dump some salary but I won't expect a huge return in talent in the salary dumps.

bcd80, I agree with the comment "Considering how Gallardo has performed thus far, it makes no sense for the Dodgers to grab him at the Deadline." Unless Gallardo finds his lost velocity, I don't see anyone giving up a valuable package of prospects for him. That loss in velocity should scare off many would-be suitors. However, if he is shopped, I wouldn't rule out the Dodgers. Normally, I think you're correct that it doesn't make sense for a team who is out of contention to trade for a player. I don't think conventional logic applies to the new Dodgers' ownership. It seems that they're trying to prove that they're "L.A." and can outspend anyone and get whatever they want. I don't know that it makes sense for the Dodgers to trade for Gallardo (or anyone), but I wouldn't rule them out. In the grand scheme, it would just make things so much better for the Brewers if Gallardo would find his velocity and start looking like he's been throughout his career. If he does, the package we could receive by trading him could go a long way to turning things around and making the Brewers relevant again in the not-too-distant future. If the loss in velocity is permanent (which would seem to mean some sort of injury, because he's too young to lose that velocity otherwise), then we're stuck with an expensive back-of-the-rotation starter for the next couple of years. Really, things couldn't be going much worse for the Brewers. The team is playing worse than anyone expected, and most of the guys who we potentially would think of trading for something of value (Gallardo, Hart, Ramirez) all have some issue that is seriously hindering their trade value.

The "Attanasio got on him to make some moves" is fuel for the belief that this move is about getting butts in the seats, which I'm sure is a very, very big concern for the owners group when they look at the guaranteed obligations they're on the hook to pay. The "Melvin just said... Scooter would stay in AAA the entire season" is fuel for the belief that there is very little planning going on in this organization. I honestly don't know if I should be upset with Melvin for not planning or if I should feel sorry for him as he tries to put a plan together and Attanasio blows it up.

It would be nice to think that bringing up Gennett right now is to allow him to get over the initial jitters of being in the MLB for a short period before Weeks is traded. Unfortunately, the only way I see anyone taking Weeks is if we pay nearly all of his contract. Even then, I don't see us getting anything of value back in trade. If this is the case, then is it worth it to pay Weeks not to play for Milwaukee simply so that we can have Gennett play everyday? It would also be nice if they were bringing Gennett up because his play is forcing their hands, but it's not. Anything can happen in a small sample, but I think we should expect him to be around replacement level. TheCrew07's point that this move is being done to make sure Weeks' option doesn't vest makes some sense, but I'd prefer they just continue to give Bianchi starts at 2B while Gennett plays at AAA. I guess if this is really about Weeks' option, their best bet would be to cut him now, because if he gets hot, it'd be hard to justify sitting him just so he doesn't hit 600 PAs. I also think SoCal Brew Crew made a very valid point. This looks like a PR move to try to spur some excitement in the fan base, in hopes of keeping more fans in the stands. Attendance is dropping, and they have a lot of guaranteed payroll to come up with. If fans lose interest, the Brewers could be seriously in the red for a couple of years. When the reasoning for bringing up one of your top prospects is probably more about finances (keep Weeks' option from vesting) and public relations (keeping fans in the seats) than it is about baseball, then the franchise has some problems. Of course, when there are questions as to whether the guy who is arguably your top position prospect is going to be able to hit for a .700 OPS and whether he's going to be able to play adequate defense, there are some problems.

I think Hart is starting his minor league rehab soon, but he & Ramirez will probably both need days off to rest their knees. That probably accounts for 2-4 starts/week, so it's nice to have a semi-capable LH bat to do that. I hope those who are predicting Ramirez/Hart trades are correct, but I won't hold out hope.

I agree with you that Braun will not be traded, probably ever. However, people should prepare themselves that the last few years of his contract he is not going to be anywhere near where he is now. Braun was born on 11/17/83, and his contract goes through 2020, with a mutual option for 2021, so he'll be almost 37 when the contract is up. Prime years for most players end somewhere around age 30 or 31, so he's nearing the end of his prime. He should still be good for a while, but will probably start seeing the normal age regression. Now would probably be the time to trade Braun if it is ever going to happen, as he would bring back a king's ransom and the receiving team would get about another year of his "prime" and would be on the hook for his bad years at the end of the contract. But again, I agree that he will not be traded. There are too few "legendary Brewers," so the thought of adding one is probably too big for the Brewers to contemplate trading him.

So we can't assume that there were any other potential moves, and that he made every possible trade he could've made, so we can only analyze these moves. No thanks. There were an infinite number of "possibilities," so rather than re-hash every move and potential move, I'd rather just judge him on the state of the franchise which he has been charged with overseeing. He inherited a franchise that was well into a rebuild started under Dean Taylor. The farm system was much better than it had been a few years prior, he had some top draft picks early in his tenure, and he had a new owner who was allowing for huge spending/payroll increases. We had a poor MLB team, but he inherited a team with a promising future. From this promising future, we got two playoff years (one playoff series win) and now the MLB team has the third worst record in the league with one of the worst farm systems of any franchise. We have a lot of payroll obligations which will hamper our ability to make moves for at least another year, and possibly more, and we're already seeing a drop in attendance which could very well drop further heading into next year, when we're almost certainly going to have a $100MM+ payroll. So, let's not bicker over every move he did or did not make. Let's just look at the net result of all the moves the Brewers have made over the past decade or so and ask if we're satisfied. Some people simply look at making the playoffs after a 20-something year drought, and think that it was worth it. I remember the bright future we had and wish we hadn't taken such a "win now" approach. While I am not surprised at the current situation of the team, I am disappointed that they chose a strategy where this was the expected outcome. I think we're set to look a lot like the Brewer teams we remember during that 20-something year playoff drought, with a few good players like Sexson, Jenkins, Burnitz, Sheets, Cirillo, Vina, Loretta, etc surrounded by a bunch of average-ish guys, leading to teams that are not good enough to make a serious run at the playoffs, but not bad enough to get us high draft picks and now the extra "money" allowed to spend on draft picks and international FAs. I hope we don't get back to the putrid attendance we had during those years, we are likely to see attendance fall no matter what, so in my mind we might as well institute a strategy with the potential for a brighter future rather than playing the "safe" strategy that will likely mean an extended period of shooting for .500.

There was an article linked in another thread (heck, maybe it was earlier in this one), which stated that Attanasio agreed to sign Lohse over the objections of Doug Melvin. That along with things like Attanasio seeming to be the impetus behind offering potentially franchise-crippling contracts to Sabathia, Fielder and Greinke, the Suppan dinner, etc, is leading me in the direction that I believe Attanasio is at least "meddling." Melvin lost his job in Texas because he argued against the A-Rod signing. I wonder how much of our "all in, all the time" mentality comes from Attanasio and Melvin just shuts his mouth and signs the deals. Personally, I thought the Brewers were en route to building a sustainably good franchise until they decided that instead of trading Fielder and Hart for young talent, they'd trade young talent to obtain Marcum and Greinke. Instead of bringing in 3-4 good, young players to add to a young core, we traded the young core for two 2-year rentals. How much of this decision was on Melvin and how much was on Attanasio we may never know. I'd just always assumed Melvin was behind the decision, but now I'm leaning more toward believing that Attanasio has a lot to do with any big decision. As I mentioned above, if the Brewers were going to make the decision they did to go all in, they should've followed the Marlin model and blew it up after the 2011 season. Trade everyone and get boatloads of young talent back. The fans would've hated it, but we'd be in a much better spot right now. I'd much rather we'd have just went with the sustainably good franchise model, which would've meant trading Fielder and Hart and not trading for Greinke and Marcum, but if you're going to go "all in," you have to be ready to get "all out."

What frustrates me the most is that they weren't willing to complete the "going for it" mentality. They didn't win the Rafael Furcal sweepstakes and thought it was just fine to go with Yuni B at SS. They didn't see the problem with Wolf/Marcum and get another pitcher. Those 2 things would have really helped. If you are going to mortgage the future and go for it at least go all the way.... of course Roenicke might've screwed it all up anyways.... Arg!!!! The way I see it, if you are going to play the "window" strategy, you have to do it like the experts, the Florida/Miami Marlins. 1) Get a group of good prospects 2) Let them get their feet under them at the MLB level, showing patience and letting the young players make mistakes, even though the MLB team is bad. 3) Once the good young players gel, sign/trade for a bunch of good, expensive, veteran players to complement the young players. 4) Let them play together for one year when you're trying to win it all. 5) Trade everyone of value away for prospects in the offseason after the "go for it" year (or during the season if, like in 2012, the team doesn't hit the ground running). This is how they get back to step (1) above - get good prospects. If you try to play the "window" strategy, but aren't willing to blow the whole thing up and trade everyone away, you will look like the Brewers currently look, like the Cubs looked a few seasons ago, or like many teams who have attempted this have always ended up looking. At least the Marlins always end up with good prospects, giving them a shot at being good again in a few years. I don't see how the Brewers will be good in the foreseeable future.

ARGH!!!!! Now you’ve made me mad! This pretty much sums up my feelings when I try to comprehend the Brewers. It's been pretty easy to see where things were headed for a while now. There have been some moves that could've prevented it, but you just knew all along that those moves wouldn't be made, and now as TLB so nicely put it, the mortgaged future has arrived. I still watch every game I can, but it's with a dull feeling. After last year's bad start, at least I could hope the Brewers would see the light and trade Greinke, Hart, Ramirez, and Marcum (before Marcum got hurt), which could've netted them a lot of young talent. Now they don't even have anyone that they'll trade who will bring any decent talent back. Probably the worst thing that could happen is they get hot and make Attanasio believe that they're still a playoff team that just had a bad start, causing him to make another stupid offseason move. I guess I'll cheer for a salary dump and a high 2014 draft pick... yay!

I think I said as good as. If I did say "better than" my bad. To me they are both competent GM's who have shown they can build a winning team. I think when you find one who can do the job you keep him because continuity seems to be a factor in maintaining a good franchise. This may be a "chicken or egg" thing, but I don't think continuity is a factor in maintaining a good franchise, I think that if you are successful at maintaining a good franchise, you will be rewarded by keeping your job (i.e. "continuity"). In other words, continuity isn't the cause of the franchise being well maintained, it is the effect. I agree with you that Melvin is competent. He's certainly not dumb. I just think that at some point a few years back, he went from a long-term strategy to a short-term ("window") strategy. It could've been that he was planning on retiring and wanted a World Series ring before he went, it could be Attanasio, it could be a lot of things. But, the decision to "go for it" in a "window," ended up short of the end goal, and now are in the inevitable stage that comes from short-term thinking/playing the "window strategy." How long it lasts and how painful the process depends on what the team does about it. I'm not surprised we're here at all. While I didn't expect this year's team to be this bad, it seems pretty obvious the team is getting less-and-less talented every year and the trend should continue for a couple more years. My only question is when the Brewer brass will acknowledge this and do something meaningful about it.

I guess the thing I'd get from Arizona is that while you sometimes trade prospects for veteran pieces to help the MLB team, you can also trade veteran pieces for prospects without it being a "give up." While posters here often reference the prospects we gave up in trade, what's missing is that for years (between Sexson and Greinke), we never traded any veterans for prospects. Continually trading away prospects, while never trading for prospects is a big part of the reason we have such a bad system.

In his 21 appearances since April 13th he has a 2.84 ERA and 22 Ks (7 BB) in 19 innings, with 3 of the 6 ER coming in one outing. I'd say he's strung together some good outings. Thanks for compiling that. I knew he'd been pitching better, but hadn't put the numbers together. He'll probably get $7-8MM in arby next year, so it would be really helpful if he continues to pitch well enough to get teams interested in him. When the options are (1) trade him for something of value (2) pay him $7-8MM next year or (3) don't offer arby and let him become a free agent with the Brewers getting nothing in return, I think the best option is #1.

Both Greinke and Lee were in the final year of their contracts, and both had turned down franchise-crippling contracts prior to Attanasio approving their trades. With Lee, the demand in return was MLB-talent, so we got 2 years of a closer and Kevin Mench and only had to add Cruz to the deal. Fielder and Hart were both on the blocks entering their final year, but the Brewers didn't feel like they were being offered enough. Melvin said he wanted two young MLB-proven pitchers for Fielder. What are the odds any playoff team would be willing to give up two members of their rotation for one year of Fielder? We apparently were offered Daniel Hudson for Fielder from the White Sox, but turned it down. Who knows what ripple effects that trade would've had. Since he didn't find the return he wanted, instead Melvin/Attanasio abandoned any semblance of a long-term plan and instead decided to put all his chips on 2011. While we got a playoff win, we're now feeling the repercussions from that decision. But, the point you were arguing was about trading Gallardo, Lohse, Weeks, Ramirez, Axford, K-Rod, and Hart. Only Hart and K-Rod are in their final year, which is when Melvin/Attanasio seem to feel it's okay to trade a player. Of course, the point is probably moot, because I doubt Axford, Ramirez, Weeks, or Lohse would return anything of value, and neither will Gallardo unless he finds his lost velocity. It is, however, worth shopping these guys to at least test the market.

We could and have gone on and on about moves that were or were not made. While what happened in the past is the reason for the situation in the present, there is nothing anyone can do about that. Therefore, my concern is about where the team is today and where they will be going forward. While the current MLB team has more talent than they are showing, they are not a good MLB team, and while the minor league system has some talent, it is overall a bad system relative to other teams' systems. Because of the financial obligations we have for 2014, I don't think we can apply a "patch" this offseason, so without some trades, next year's team will basically be this year's team minus Hart and a few other minor pieces. It doesn't look like we're going to get a lot of help from the minors next year... at least not enough to turn us into legitimate playoff contenders. This is why I think we need to do something ASAP to try to right the ship. If Hart and Ramirez were healthy, Gallardo hadn't lost his velocity, and Weeks hadn't forgotten how to play baseball, I'd feel much better about making a move or two and becoming instantly better. As it stands, I think we're pretty thin on players who we could and would trade that would bring back anything of value. We won't "tear it down and rebuild," because that would imply that we could successfully tear it down. I don't think anyone's going to take the useless Weeks, the gimpy Ramirez, the too-old Lohse, or the reduced-velocity Gallardo off our hands. Estrada is not pitching well enough to draw interest, Lucroy and Maldonado would be selling very low, and Braun, Segura and Peralta are not going to be traded. Therefore, there's no worry for those who tremble at the thought of rebuilding. That doesn't leave us with a lot of options, and we aren't going to be able to add enough talent to right the ship, but there are a couple things we could do that would help a little. Aoki and/or Gomez should be traded, with Schafer becoming the starter for the rest of the year. Both of these guys are talented with team control, so either one should be able to bring back a good, young, inexpensive player at a position of need. Our bullpen has been effective this year. Since bullpens are a crapshoot, we should strike when the iron's hot, and see if we could get anything of value for the guys who aren't a part of the future. I wouldn't trade pre-arby guys, as they're valuable for the future. The exception to this would be Henderson if he is overvalued do to his "closer" title, and someone offers us a nice prospect. But, K-Rod could have some value if he gets some saves while Henderson's out. Axford (don't laugh) could have some value if he can string some good outings together. Gonzalez is a veteran LHP, which always has value at trade deadline. If we could pick up a high-upside A-Baller, or even a future bullpen arm for one of these guys, I'd do it. We'd add some talent to the system, while allowing guys like Hand, Sanchez and Figaro to get a lot of MLB action. I wish we had other, better options for trades that could "turn things around," but unless Gallardo finds his velocity or Ramirez suddenly becomes 100% healthy, I don't see other teams giving us anything for our expensive, damaged goods. And that, my friends, is why I'm not optimistic about the future. We have a bad MLB team, we have a bad farm system, and a lot of the guys we potentially could've traded for prospects have lost their value due to injuries or ineffectiveness.

I don't know. Publicly, of course Melvin/Mark A. aren't going to say "the farm system stinks," but look at the actions they're taking. -When we lost our top two first basemen this spring, Melvin didn't go with Morris when it seemed to be the obvious move. Instead he went with Alex Gonzalez!! Not a big show of faith in our top hitting prospect. -On the non-pitching side, our position of greatest depth in the minors is OF, so Melvin decided to lock Gomez up with to multi-year, eight figure salary. Not a big show of faith in our OF prospects. -We continue to play Weeks, even though he's been really bad, and playing him makes the likelihood of his option vesting more of a reality. If Gennett were really a "top prospect," he would be our starting second baseman right now. If he were highly regarded, we would probably have traded Weeks this past offseason after a decent second half last year brought his trade value up. -While they've shown faith in Peralta, who started the season with the Brewers when he needed more time in the minors to work on control (and to get another season's worth of control), Fiers was pulled from the rotation after one start, and when we needed a spot starter, we chose Figaro over our heralded starting pitchers at AAA. Not showing a lot of confidence in Thornberg, Hellweg, Pena, Jungman, Nelson, etc who we are publicly led to believe are going to make up the future rotation for the Brewers. I'm not talking about bringing them up for good... the Brewer brass apparently don't even trust them for 1-2 starts during a losing season. The arguement of 40-man spots doesn't hold water, as we just spent a 40-man spot on Hand when we could've brought up Sanchez, saving that spot for one of the starting pitchers if one was deemed worthy. No, I don't think the behind-closed-door meetings consist of Melvin blowing smoke about how great our farm is. They probably hem and haw about "we're better than this, what can we do," but I apparently the answer to that is not "bring up those top guys from the farm."

bcd80, I agree that we should look at who we could trade in order to help the future, but I disagree on the return. So with reality setting in I hope this season is about done. I'm just going to say ARam/Lohse and their supposed high priced contracts should be shipped away ASAP. A SP and 3b combo has to be of value to some team with Playoff aspirations. Give me a 3B 1-2year away Prospect and a 1-4year away High Talent SP prospect in return. They can add a midling current SP on Roster as well that Lohse would be taking place of helping the 40man situation of that team. Weeks, send him away once Gennett is no longer of Super 2 concern. Pick up much of the tab remaining this season let that team deal with next year's salary. Same as Hart. Bringing up Morris in return. Ramirez is signed to a heavily-backloaded deal, limiting his trade value. Then, he injured his knee this spring, was rushed back and re-injured it. Now, he's missed a month or so and still runs about half speed and has to take a couple days a week off. I can't imagine anyone would take the risk on him unless he proved he was 100%. I don't have inside info, but I think he's probably going to need surgery at some point, but he & the Brewers are trying to "play through it" so as not to miss this season. I don't think he's tradeable. This offseason, teams weren't willing to give up a first rounder for Lohse, so if he's 100%, the best the Brewers could hope for would be less than the perceived value of a first round draft pick. Now, Lohse is sitting out with "elbow irritation." Other than "shoulder irritation," that's the biggest red flag a pitcher can have. Teams aren't going to trade for a pitcher with a huge injury concern. Like Ramirez, he would have to prove himself 100% healthy, and even then, the Brewers aren't getting much for him. Maybe a back-of-the-rotation AAA guy (which we have plenty of) or a decent upside A baller. I'd do the deal for the A-baller, but the Brewers won't. Regarding Gennett/Weeks: First, I may be wrong, but I don't think Super 2 is a concern, as I believe that's only for the highest rated prospects. More importantly, no one is going to trade for Weeks and get stuck with that contract. With the way he's playing right now, we probably wouldn't get anything of value even if we picked up 100% of the contract. We're stuck with him - we need to play him regulary if we hope to have him regain some value, but if we play him regularly we risk having his option vest. If someone would take him in a salary dump, I'd do the deal in a second, but no one is going to do it. Regarding the "supposed high priced contract" statement, they are eight figure salaries, and that is high priced, especially for the Brewers. Just because other players make more, doesn't mean the $30MM or so still owed to each of the players isn't a lot of money. These two players will combine for around 30% of the Brewers' 2014 payroll and are a big reason Melvin's "financial hands" will be tied at least until 2015. FWIW the team had a lower salary for this season and picking up the tabs to net higher return cannot possibly hurt the ownership that much. I think Morris/Gennett will keep fans coming just on the excitement they are here. The Brewers had a lower salary for this season, but then they signed Gomez and Lohse, putting their payroll at around $89MM. Yes, that's lower than the 2012 payroll which went overboard once K-Rod accepted arby, and it's lower than we will probably see in 2014 unless we can trade away some salary, but it's still relatively high for the Brewers. But, "eating" salaries wouldn't really affect this year to a great degree... it would be the next year or two where it would matter. It may make sense to "eat" salary if it would mean getting a good return for a player, but that would keep our hands tied next season. Plus, as mentioned above, the biggest concerns with Ramirez and Lohse right now are injuries, and Weeks isn't netting a return even if we eat the whole contract. Gomez has turned to Core Player status and cannot be traded away unless he's seriously netting me Oh, let's say Seattle's Hultzen and Paxton. With Swapping Lucroy for Zunino. Gomez has become an All-Star and 24mil owed to him in the next 3years is a Cheap All-Star in his prime. He Blows away Revere and Span currently. So his return had better blow away what they returned! I agree it would take a big return to trade Gomez, but he is one of the few players on the roster with some trade value right now. If we refuse to trade any of our tradeable players, then logic would dictate that we wouldn't trade anyone. I would guess it more likely that we'd trade Aoki over Gomez, but I think one of them should be traded this season, as they are both valueable trade chips, and we have MLB-ready replacements in the system. If Gallardo is Coveted, then trade him. But the signs of his decline have me concerned that in truth he's injured and a Major Surgery is coming. Other GMs have to have that same concern and I'm thinking Gallardo isn't coveted right now. Yes, Gallardo's loss of velocity is very concerning. If he finds his lost velocity, trading him could be a huge step in turning the franchise around, as I still believe that with similar "team control," a healthy 27-year-old Gallardo is worth as much as a 31-year-old Shields.

Yeah, at trade deadline last year, I still thought we could make some trades to brighten the future. Then Marcum got hurt while we were deciding if we were still "in it" last year, Hart and Ramirez both got knee injuries this spring, Gallardo lost velocity, and Weeks has lost all trade value. You hit the nail on the head with the three guys who could potentially bring back some young talent, and none of those three will be traded. Right now, I'm pretty much holding out hope that Aoki will bring back someone good at the trade deadline, as he is the only guy who the Brewers may trade who would have some value. Without some deadline trades this year (at least something to dump a 2014 contract), next year's team will basically be this year's team minus Hart. The guaranteed obligations would seem to disallow for any free agent additions, and the lack of quality minor leaguers would seem to disallow for a trade for a vet. The lack of quality minor leaguers also hurts in that none of our upper minors starting pitchers except Nelson (AA) are making a case to be in the Brewers' 2014 rotation. There's not much immediate help coming from the farm, so we'll probably have to push the payroll over $100MM just to make some Betancourt-style additions. This comes when attendance is already declining, and will probably decline more next year, meaning the owners will probably lose a boatload of money, even with the increased TV revenue. Then we lost a bunch of talent, but still have quite a bit of money tied up in a handful of players in 2015, especially if Weeks plays enough for his contract to vest. I know that seems like it won't happen, but if he's hitting at all to start next year, and the team doesn't tank out of the gate, I bet they'll continue to play him. The team won't be able to fill all the MLB holes through free agency, so it's going to take a miracle to have a competitive team without some major trades occurring. This team needs to shed contracts to add pieces to remain competitive, but the only contracts anyone would want are attached to players we would only trade in a "rebuild." It's just not a good situation, and those talking about the risk of any type of rebuild should look at the risk of not doing something. I think there's a good chance it'll get ugly no matter what, but at this point, I'd shoot for the lesser of two evils, which in my mind is the route that nets us the most young, inexpensive talent.

That was kind of my thought. I have no problem with Hand, but Sanchez is already on the 40-man, so why not just bring him up and save the 40-man slot? That said, I do look forward to seeing what Hand does. He almost made the club out of Spring Training, and could be a nice, inexpensive option for the future.

without signaling a drastic overhaul. I think this is the main problem. Attanasio does not want the fans to think they aren't "going for it" out of fear that the fans will stop showing up at the ballpark. What will cause drastic change is if we retain a high payroll and fans stop attending. When expenses remain fixed, but revenues drop dramatically, owners do funny things. I think this is likely if the team doesn't turn things around soon. Personally, I think that if the long-term plan is explained to the fans, they will buy in. Attendance will drop some, but the fans won't feel cheated, so they will still be fans. Milwaukee fans stopped attending games in the past because the perception was that the Seligs were making money while putting a sub-par team on the field. Attendance started rising for the Brewers before they started winning because, like me, fans in the early 2000's were excited to know that better times were coming. Put together a long-term plan and let the fans know what you're doing. It's not that difficult.

I drove 3.5 hours on Wednesday to watch the debacle against the Dodgers. I told my friends it reminded me of a game I drove 3.5 hours to attend in 2002 I, too have been a long-time Brewer fan. My first game was sometime in the mid-70s. It's funny, because it was during the early 2000's that I started getting excited to be a Brewer fan again. I knew the MLB team was bad, but better things were on the way. They had good talent in the minors and seemed to have a long-term plan in place. My friends thought I was crazy when I'd talk in positive terms about the Brewers franchise when the MLB team was losing 90+ games every season. Then they decide to stop long-term planning and put everything into winning in the short-term. Since then, I've had the opposite feeling from what I had in the early 2000's... even though we had some talent on the MLB roster, I knew bad times were coming. Every year, we're losing more talent than we're adding, and unless something drastically changes, I see that happening for the next few years. We've gone too far the wrong way for there to be a quick fix. The way I see it, we can look like we did in the 1990's, with a system devoid of talent, but a few "names" on the MLB roster to try to make fans think the team is competitive even though they're not. Or, we can do anything possible to bring top young talent into the system, which may mean suffering through a few bad years, but with realistic hopes of a brighter future.

For some reason, Gallardo has lost velocity this year. Maybe it's the World Baseball Classic, maybe it's something else. If he can't find that lost velocity, I think GM's will shy away from him. He's not old enough to lose a couple MPH, so that could be a big warning sign. If he gets his velocity back, I think he has lots of trade value. I used Shields as a comp because he is a recent top-of-the-rotation pitcher to be traded. While Gallardo may not have as good of numbers as Shields, he is close enough to be in the conversation. The big thing in Gallardo's favor is his age. Shields' numbers came during his "prime" years, and he is now past his prime. Meanwhile, Gallardo is not yet into his "prime" years. Going forward, that is a big point for Gallardo. Of course, he has to find that lost velocity.

If you invested millions of dollars of your own money into something you would probably be pretty emotional about that thing too. While the value of the franchise has very likely gone up since he bought it, you don't make or lose money on anything until you sell it. You don't get to where MA is without pride in what you do, and losing/not achieving your goals/vision hurts your pride. As an owner, MA should certainly have a say in things that impact attendance which is the major revenue driver of his business. Not control, but certainly a say. Attanasio has every right to do whatever he wants, but it doesn't appear that he knows all that much about team building, and I think Boras is using that to his advantage. Attanasio did a good job in squeezing every ounce of "non-baseball" revenues that he could. However, the payroll expense seems to be stretched to the point that a drop in revenues from attendance (and things like parking and concessions which go along with attendance) could really hurt. When faced with the potential for drop in revenues, the initial reaction by business owners is often to throw money at the problem. When/if that doesn't work, the next step is usually to slash expenses. I applaud Melvin for his restraint this offseason. Then Attanasio paniced and signed Lohse. That hasn't worked, so I'll let you decide how best to slash expenses. Remember, contracts are guaranteed and other GM's aren't stupid, so no one is taking bad contracts off our hands.

I think we've been getting gradually less talented each of the past couple of years, and that trend will continue for the next few years. In other words, we're not nearly as talented as the 2011 team, but we are more talented that the 2014 or 2015 teams will be. Without trading away some salary, our hands are tied with the guaranteed obligations going into next year. Unfortunately, many of the big contracts are probably untradeable at this point. The tradeable contracts belong to players who we likely aren't going to trade (Braun, Gomez and Gallardo if he rediscovers his velocity). Therefore, next year's team will basically be this year's team without Hart. Unfortunately, our prospects on the farm are living down to the pundits' expectations, so it doesn't look like much help is coming from the farm soon. In 2015, depending on whether or not Weeks' option vests, we could have around $70.6MM tied up in seven players or $59MM tied up in six players and we'll have a lot of holes to fill. Maybe Melvin will somehow be able to work magic, but without good talent on the farm, with a TV deal increase that is dwarfed by other teams' increases (likely leading to ballooning salaries) and playing in a division in which every other team has loads more young talent on the horizon, I don't see how we will be competitive. Beyond that is pretty hard to predict, other than saying that when we're deficient on young talent and don't really have any sure-fire ways of bringing that talent into the system, it could be a painful period. We've had chances over the past few years to not end up at this point, but because we were continually going "all in," we never traded away players when they could've brought talent into the system, instead adding more high-priced vets through free agency or trade. Now, the solution (trading guys like Braun, Gallardo and Gomez) would be painful and risky, while not doing it will be painful and risky. I had hopes that guys like Hart, Ramirez, Weeks and Gallardo could bring back something, but Hart and Ramirez both have bad knees and Gallardo has lost the velocity that made him a top-of-the-rotation guy. Meanwhile, no one would take Weeks off our hands even in a salary dump. My hopes are resting on our prospects somehow doing much better than they're currently showing, and maybe being able to trade Aoki for a good young player who can help us for the next six years. Oh, and maybe Melvin can get another GM drunk enough to trade us something for some of our tainted goods.

So you can have a scapegoat when things blow up?