monty57

My only problem with your post, is what was Gillespie gonna really do for this organization? We have Braun in LF, had Cain as a prospect in the OF, (obviously the Gomez thing was not done), and had Cutter Dykstra in the OF picture. Plus Gillespie wasn't an impact player regarless. Maybe, maybe not. In limited MLB playing time with Arizona, he's got a .772 OPS and I believe he's played all three OF positions (I know he's played LF & CF). He's got a .909 OPS at AAA. This past offseason, we had to sign Edmonds for $850,000, trade for Gomez ($1.1MM) and retain Gerut ($2.0MM) in order to have an outfield. We also paid Lopez a few million last year. At the very least, Gillespie could have been a farily solid fourth OF for a cheap price for six seasons. Last year was a little different though. We were in first place into early July. We tanked in July after Bush and Suppan got hurt. By the end of July we definitely should have been sellers though. Things were a little more optimistic last year. We at least had shown we could play good baseball. This year, not so much. Agreed, and this shows the variance in baseball. With roughly the same talent, last year we played well to start the season and then collapsed. This year, we started out poorly and who knows how we'll finish. If I had to guess, we'll get hot at some point and end up slightly below .500 (right around where we ended last year). If we're sellers, we'll end up with a few less wins, but probably not that many less. Either way, we'll be out of the playoffs, so I'd rather sell and have some fun watching the kids who will be our future stars. For the record, I wasn't completely opposed to trading for Lopez when we did it, even though I hated losing Gillespie (one of those guys I always followed). We absolutely should have been sellers as the season went on. That's why I'm worried that Melvin is very averse to being a "seller." Unless we get really hot, really soon and are only a game or two back in the division in a couple weeks (I doubt the Wild Card comes out of the Central this year), I hope we sell.

how about having him serve as dh as the brewers try to sweep the angels? i can understand how the brewers didn't have an alternate at first base in minneapolis, but with edmonds back, prince should have gotten more games in as the designated hitter.I agree that would be a good idea, but the announcers last night said that Prince won't DH. He wants to play the field.

I think you are probably right and I think it would also be a huge mistake.I have to agree with Logan. This is exactly what happened last season, and is why we got nothing in return for players like Cameron, and instead gave up Gillespie for Lopez... all to end up with a few more wins, but well out of the race. If we are at all "in it," you are correct that Melvin will probably tinker a bit and trade some prospects to add a piece, when he should be selling some pieces to get more prospects. After I wrote my previous post, I looked at it and thought that other than trading Fielder, many of the other "sell" moves wouldn't really lessen our chances of winning games this season as the replacements could perform as well as the players being traded.

So... if we're still out of it in July: -I try to trade Prince Fielder for a near-MLB-ready SP (I think it can be done). -I would also see what the market is for Hart, but he will probably be more marketable in the offseason, so I'd hope he can keep hitting well and raising his price tag. If someone gives me a good offer for him, I'd do it in a heartbeat (no pun intended) and call up Cain to play RF. -I'd see if anyone would give us something of value for Edmonds, who has been pretty productive (offensively and defensively) and bring up Katin to give him a chance at the major league level. Let Gomez and Cain get most of the starts in CF/RF with Katin getting 1-2 stars a week and being a decent RH bat off the bench. -It appears Lucroy is up to stay, and it's good to see that he's starting to get a lot more starts. I'd make sure that he & Kottaras split time the rest of the season. -Since Bush seems to be pitching better, I'd see if any contenders in need of a 4/5 starter would trade me something for him. It wouldn't have to be too much, as we are going to have a surplus of 4/5 SP soon and we won't get anything for him when he walks at the end of the season. This would give us room to insert Davis once he's healthy, while allowing Parra and Narveson (both of whom are potentially part of the future) to remain in the rotation. No worries about depth, as we still have Capuano and Loe on the MLB roster and Rivas could always be called up. -If we're going to extend Weeks, we should do it soon. That really depends on if they really view Lawrie as a 2B. If he'll sign cheaply enough, I'd say do it. -I'd have to think long & hard about Hoffman. If keeping him means sending someone better back to AAA, it might make sense to release him (or trade him for nothing). I would definitely get rid of the poster of him in left field. Finally, I'm really torn about Macha. I don't like him, and would like to see him shown the door, but I don't really want Randolph or Sveum given the job, as the team is likely better than they've been playing, and if they step it up in the second half, the Brewers might be handcuffed into giving Randolph/Sveum the permanent job. I'd rather see them go on the open market and find the best available man for the job. There has to be someone out there... doesn't there?

All other things remaining equal, would you trade Fielder for Conor Jackson? If not, do you think Fielder should get a significantly higher return than Conor Jackson?

Does this at all refute some of the arguements flying around here: -MLB hitters nearing free agency can indeed be traded for minor league pitching -MLB players retain value even after down years. Jackson was a low-.800 OPS LF until his injury and hasn't yet found his stroke. -Position players can be traded mid-season So, if a LF who had a couple .820-ish OPS years a few years back and has often been replaced this season due to lack of production can net a 24-year-old, MLB-ready closer-in-waiting who strikes out 10 per 9 innings in the minors, is it possible a career .923 OPS 1B with similar time remaining before free agency who has never been injured and has been very productive over the past few seasons could net a little more than that? Possibly even a young, near MLB-ready starting pitcher? Good to see at least one team out of the hunt starting to sell off. Maybe it will put a spur Melvin's saddle and get him motivated to start making some phone calls.

And again you are pulling out a handful of players when the greater majority will not pitch well past the age of 32 I'd just change that to "the greater majority will not pitch as well pas the age of 32." Pitchers' talent (like everyone else) will fade with age and generally 32 is considered to be about the age it begins to fade. If someone is a great pitcher from age 30-32, there's a good chance that they will still be above average over a new 3-4 year contract, but they probably won't be as good as they were when they were younger. If someone is around average at age 30-32, there's a good chance they will be below average for the length of a new 3-4 year contract. The problem is that the great pitchers are out of our price range, so we have to veer away from offering 3-4 year contracts to average pitchers who are already in their 30's. I didn't hate the Wolf signing, because he was above average the past couple seasons (when he wasn't hurt), we'll have money over the next couple seasons, and we had a dead zone in the rotation between the end of last season through the end of Wolf's contract where he should be one of the best five pitchers on the Brewers. His start has been rough, but he should get better. That said, I really don't want them to sign another contract like that, as three years from now we should have a lot of prospects ready to fill in the Brewers' rotation. The only way a free agent signing makes sense this offseason is if it is a one year deal to a pitcher who is obviously better than our other options (Parra, Narveson, Rivas, etc), or if the pitcher signed is very likely to be one of our five best pitchers 3-4 years from now. The only one I see on the FA list that fits that bill is Cliff Lee, and we probably aren't going to be able to afford him.

I just think that since over 20% of the time up there he's either being walked or hit by a pitch, Prince is just so worried about how wild the pitchers get when he's up with runners in scoring position that he can't get comfortable in the box :-) Seriously, looking at those numbers and not seeing where the actual pitches have been, it's possible that pitchers are working around him, which could lead to Prince going out of the zone after pitches, which could lead to worse numbers. I'm sure there's a site somewhere that shows what pitches Fielder is swinging at that could validate or invalidate this theory pretty easily, but I don't know where to find it.

One concern with signing a free agent this offseason will be the length of contract. We have a lot of young pitching coming up, and I don't want someone in a situation like Suppan this year, where he's the worst pitcher on the staff, but he's getting paid the most, so he starts the year in the rotation. Granted, the bar should be higher in three or four years, but I will still want the best five pitchers out there. Most decent free agent starters are going to get longer term deals, so if we sign someone to 3-4 years, he'd better have a good chance of still being one of our best five pitchers three or four years from now. In other words, I really hope we don't sign someone who's already in their 30's to a deal over two years unless that person if really good. Cliff Lee would probably be the only one who fits that criteria, and I don't think we'll probably be in the running for him. Right now, our best options for upgrading our rotation are: Trading Fielder for young SP, trading for someone with 2-3 years left on their contract or in arbitration, or simply waiting out our prospects (going with Yo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson, prospect next year and adding prospects as they're ready). I'm all for signing a strikeout pitcher like Vazquez to a one-year-with-option deal, but I don't think that's too likely. I cautiously hope for one of the first two options, although there is definitely worry that the added pitcher won't be a difference maker and will simply work to block prospects.

The best move is to let Fielder finish his current contract and take the draft picks presented to us (either 1st round picks or compensatory) after some team picks him up in free agency. I truly believe that Melvin cannot find any better compensation in a trade as compared to what can be picked up in the draft. Going to the draft will also allow the club to alleve the bloated payroll as well, even if the picks do not pan out. I'll have to disagree here, as I feel letting him walk for draft picks would be the worst outcome. If you are worried about payroll concerns, first the "bloated payroll" will become "unbloated" after this season when around $40-50MM will come off the books, even if Fielder is on the team. Also, trading Fielder for minor leaguers would be much less expensive than letting him play out his contract and drafting players. In the former scenario, there would be no cost other than the minor leaguers' salaries, probably totaling less than $100k/year. If we keep Fielder, we're on the hook to pay him somewhere in the $15MM range next season, and then we'd have to pay our draft picks a couple million to sign. If you trade him this season, you're also clipping off $6MM or so in salary there, so I'd guess keeping him until the end of next season would cost $25MM or so more than trading him by this year's trade deadline. Really, I'm more worried about the fact that we could end up not getting a 1st rounder (see Sheets and Sabathia), and even if we do get extra picks, those picks will have much less chance of making a difference in the majors than someone we trade for. I have to agree with most of the posters here that Fielder will be traded at some point, hopefully when he will bring the most value to the Brewers. I hope other GMs look beyond this year and realize that this is the same person who was the youngest ever to hit 50 HRs. I personally think this year is a mix of two things. First, pithcers are working around him (which is why he's got a .400 OBP) and not giving him much to hit. Since he wants to validate the $200MM contract talk, he's now starting to swing at pitches out of the zone, notably the high fastball. I really think Prince gets caught up in the contract talk. His worst season to date was when he was upset about Melvin locking him in at $600k instead of the $900k he wanted in arby year three. He made public how happy he was to get his two-year deal, and hit well last year. Now he's struggling when contract talks are going on again. His trade value should still be pretty high, so I hope the Brewers are able to trade him soon.

If we could get him on a Melvin-esque one year with an option deal, I wouldn't mind signing Javier Vazquez, as he's a strikeout pitcher, which is what we need with our shoddy defense. I also wouldn't mind them making a shot at trading for Dan Haren if the rumors are true that the Diamondbacks are looking to trade him. Other than that, we have Yo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson and Davis if we want him under contract and the first wave of young pitchers ought to be about MLB ready by the start of next season. Not to mention Capuano would probably sign back with us if we wanted him as a starter. I'm very afraid that Attanasio and Melvin will not have the patience to go this route, and will continue to make the same mistake of looking for an immediate remedy to our pitching woes by overpaying an aging free agent. I agree, and add to it that if we were to get an average-ish veteran starter, they would be locked into the rotation from day 1, and they'd put the young starters into the bullpen. The only way I want the Brewers to add another arm this offseason is if it is a true difference maker, #1/2 arm type, or if it is a solid young arm acquired in trade.

Unless Kottaras is nursing an injury, it appears that Lucroy is now our starting catcher. I had to wonder how long they'd let him sit with Kottaras playing such poor defense in front of him.

Wolf hits 92 on what planet? I don't generally pay much attention to the MPH guage on TV, but I know the first game Wolf played with Lucroy (the one he got very flustered with him mid-inning) he pumped three straight fastballs in the 91-92 range. I'd guess that's his top fastball, and he generally works in the 87-89 MPH range, unlike Davis who tops out around 88 and works in the 84-86 MPH range. If you read my entire post, you'd see the the two "soft tossing old guys" I was referring to were Davis and Suppan. I never said that about Wolf, and in fact said in the first paragraph of the post that I'm okay with the Wolf signing, so you're way off in your assumption that I was just tossing out the phrase in regards to anyone Melvin has signed. I didn't mean to aim that criticism directly at you, and I did read your entire post. I've just seen the term "soft-tosser" used on this board more in the past couple months than I have heard it in my entire life, and it seems to have become a pretty generic phrase being thrown around, particularly from those who dislike Melvin. Davis has been a "soft-tosser" his entire career, and since his first term with the Brewers has been successful with it. Suppan has been a "soft-tosser" for a long time and was decent as a "soft-tosser" in his prime, which he passed years ago. Now he just sucks and should never have been forced into the Brewers' rotation. "Soft-tossers" can be good or bad, just like "hard-tossers" can. "Hard-tossers" just have more margin for error. Coming into this season, Davis wasn't terrible, while Suppan was, so I wasn't upset with Davis in the rotation, while I was upset with Suppan in the rotation.

I get the "soft tossing" label on Davis, that's what he is. Wolf hits 92, which isn't really "soft tossing" now that the steroids era is over, especially for a lefty. These days, it's asking a lot to expect to have a rotation that's full of guys who work in the mid-90s. We do have "soft tossers" in Bush and Davis, and Suppan was definitely a "soft tosser," but I think the phrase has just become Brewerfan.net lingo for any pitcher Melvin signs that doesn't work out. I never foresaw Davis pitching as poorly as he has, and of course no one could've expected the injury he's suffering. Before the injury, I hoped he'd pick up his game and pitch well enough that someone in need of pitching would give up something for him at the trade deadline. Of course, that's not going to happen.

I agree on the Cain front. We need to get someone we'll have for a longer period. The only reason we're contemplating trading Fielder is that he's headed to free agency. We'd be in the same situation with Cain. As far as Tampa, I've had some hard core baseball fans that've been there tell me it's the worst stadium they've ever seen, and they would not go back to watch a game there. I don't know what could possibly be so bad about a stadium, but I think that's part of the reason the attendance is so low.

And for Melvin to find affordable starting pitchers who don't rely as much on defense, he needs to sign high strikeout, high walk flyball pitchers. Even then, I'm not sure how much that would help. Some you'd have to think. Chris Narveson fits that bill (career 106 K / 47 BB in 110.1 IP, 208 FB / 130 GB) As you of course know, pitchers with high K/9 are very expensive on the open market, and for some reason people are calling for Narveson to be taken out of the rotation. Most players with a higher K/9 than Narveson (he's #35 in MLB) are not yet free agents. The only players in the majors with > 6 years exp and a higher K/9 than Narveson (min 40 IP) are: Dan Haren, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Rich Harden, Javier Vazquez, Cliff Lee, and Ryan Dempster. For the record, Gallardo's #13 on the list with 9.22 k/9.

You completely missed the point and I am just going to leave it at that.I'll put it this way. If the Brewers had 7 Yo Gallardo's and no offense, and we were sitting in third place, just out of the playoffs, then yes, I would trade a Yo Gallardo for 1.5 years of Prince Fielder. Since we have no starting pitching, there is no way I'd trade the only good, young MLB pitcher we have. It's as much about the needs of a team as it is about the value of the players.

Here's the Catch-22. If you re-sign Prince, there's a good chance you can't afford Haren. Haren at 3/$40MM would essentially take up the salary Prince is currently being paid. If Prince is getting $20-25MM, we could probably afford both for a year or two, but we'd get squeezed as Braun, Yo, Escobar, Gamel, etc start getting more expensive. Even if we could afford it, I honestly don't think there's any chance of Fielder re-signing (the timing of Boras' $200MM comments appear to me to be a slap in the face of Melvin/Mark A). I don't know that Haren is the right guy or not, but the years and salary are about right for the Brewers. If they sign a top-line guy (say Cliff Lee), they're likely going to have to give him 5-6 years in the $15-20MM range. With all the young pitching coming up, I don't want to take the risk of signing a contract like that, when in 3-4 years we could have a fully homegrown rotation at a cheap price. To me, three years seems about right to bridge the gap. Having Haren, Wolf and Yo all signed would make it possible to trade one or two of our young pitchers (although that could turn out to be painful if they pan out). I don't want to trade someone like Gamel either, but he & McGehee play the same position (and neither has been moved yet to see if they could play elsewhere), and you have to give value to get value. The Diamondbacks aren't going to give up Haren for nothing, nor are any other teams who have a good pitcher on the market. Plus, by the end of this season, we could be pretty close to being two years into Gamel's pre-arby years. I thought Salome was just playing RF for a game to keep his bat in the lineup, as he can't catch everyday. I think he's caught something like 8 games vs 1 game in RF since coming back... I may be wrong on that. I agree that if he's a RF his value is down significantly. If we could put a lineup something like: SP 1 Yo SP 2 Haren SP 3 Wolf SP 4/5 Parra/Capuano/Narveson/guys up from minors like Rogers, Rivas, etc We could also get someone for Prince that could be in the rotation, making it even stronger RP Axford RP Braddock RP Hawkins RP Dillard RP Stetter RP Parra/Capuano/Narveson/guy from minors RP Parra/Capuano/Narveson/guy from minors 1B Dunn or Lee (signed to 1-2 year deal) 2B Weeks SS Escobar 3B McGehee LF Braun CF Gomez RF Cain (or Hart if not moved) Our offense would be similar to this year (especially if we signed Dunn), and our rotation would be significantly better, especially if we are able to trade Prince for a good, young arm that could help out in the rotation next season. With Yo, Haren, {good young pitcher from Prince trade}, Wolf, #5 we could have a playoff caliber rotation. In Haren's "down year" this year (he's 29), he's started 13 games (1 CG), 87.2 IP, 88 K, 17 BB, with a 1.36 WHIP and 4.83 ERA. His BAA is .288 (.252 career). He's still a good pitcher in his prime.

...and the difference between Kottaras and Molina is probably about ten runs as well, although that's a bit harder to measure, and could be significantly more. With Kottaras' weak arm, and Weeks' inability to catch a ball, every team in baseball will run wild on the Brewers for the remainder of the season. A large number of walks and singles will turn into doubles, and that's not going to be good. That's not even taking into consideration all the balls that Kottaras should easily catch or block that simply go right through him. His defensive deficiencies have become glaringly apparent since Zaun went down.

No, imo. Cain should be promoted to Nashville soon. If he hits there and continues to get on base, he'd be the prime candidate to take over in 2011. If I had to guess, Cain will be up in RF next year, with Gomez in CF (assuming Hart is traded so as not to have to pay him $7-8MM next year). Then, Gomez will be traded when our young corner OFs are ready, at which point Cain will take over in CF. I agree Gomez really needs to improve his OBP. It's going to be hard to do with Edmonds getting most of the starts in CF as the LH part of the current platoon. Unless Hart cools down or is traded, or if Edmonds' 40-year-old body can't hold up to playing nearly everyday, Gomez will rot away on the bench this season and therefore will likely regress rather than progress as a hitter.

Don't discount a 1B who can actually reach bad throws and scoop some balls. Pujols is a good first baseman who can make his infield defense look better. Fielder is not a good first baseman, and makes his fellow infielders' defense look even worse. That said, the Cardinals' official scorer is a big homer, as was evidenced in the Brewers' series when he gave an error to the CF on a near impossible play that tipped off his glove, saving the pitcher an earned run. With that type of scoring, Suppan's ERA could be lower than it was as a Brewer. I'd also guess that it helps the Cardinals' team ERA over the course of a season, making their pitchers look a little better.

I don't have anything to back up the Brewers' pitcher development, but there are 150 starting pitchers in baseball right now, and unless I'm missing someone, three were drafted and spent some time in the Brewers' system (Yo, Eveland & Sheets). The average would be 5 per team, so the Brewers are below average. Not really scientific, but I think it's telling that for a long, long time, the Brewers have only developed two starting pitchers that have played any significant time on their roster (Sheets and Yo). You would think that you would at least find a #5 starter here & there. The new strategy seems to be to draft so many SP that by sheer dumb luck at least someone will have to make it to the majors.

Ask Mr. Gordon if he thinks Matt Holliday will be earning his $17MM / year when he's 37.

Good post, TheCrew. It makes it even worse that a couple extra starts were added to Gallardo's workload early this season in order to make sure Suppan would be in the rotation. It seems to me the Brewers are babying the young arms at the low levels, almost to the extreme. Odorizzi is being brought along very slowly. They're piggybacking starters at Appleton and I believe at Brevard County (at least they did it there last year). They told Arnett to only throw fastballs in Rookie ball last year due to his Indiana workload, and he at least started as part of a piggyback in Appleton. Rogers was held to 1-2 inning starts for most of last season. I'm sure much of this has been done in large part because of the horrific track record they have with draft picks making it to the majors. My fingers are crossed, and I have no problem waiting an extra year or two for a pitcher to make it to the majors, if bringing them along slowly means more of them actually make it. We seem to have reached a point where we will continually see position players filling in to the Brewers' roster. I hope we're getting close to the day we'll see the same thing on the pitching front.

I think (hope, pray, whatever) that the only reason Lucroy has been up for so long is that there was absolutely no flexibility on the 40-man to add another catcher. Now that we've finally gotten rid of Suppan and can get Zaun off the 40-man, we should be able to add another catcher to the 40-man and get Lucroy back to AAA where he should be. It is sad to watch everybody run at will against the Brewers, knowing that Kottaras has no chance at throwing them out. It's sad watching so many "catchable" or "blockable" pitches get by Kottaras that end up scoring runs. That said, this year is done & gone, so we might as well let Kottaras get a lot of starts to give him some experience, so he can be a better backup to Lucroy for the next few years. However, Lucroy cannot continue to sit the bench, so we need to bring in someone else, whether it's a trade or we bring up one of our scrub minor leaguers to ride the pine at the MLB level. If, for some reason, Lucroy remains a Milwaukee Brewer, than he needs to at the very least get 2/5 of the starts, and probably should get the majority of the starts in the near future. If the excuse for not starting him is that he's not ready defensively, then Macha and Melvin need to start watching Kottaras play.