monty57

I've said it before. Kendall has to be into voodoo, hypnosis or have some compromising photos of someone. Otherwise there is no reason for him to play as much as he does. As for Rivera's defense, I'm surprised he remembers how to put his gear on with as little as he's playing.

I think that with the prospects we have we're built to be a playoff-caliber team for years to come. Our biggest question mark is the rotation over the next 1-2 years. Next year, Yo, Suppan, Bush and Parra will all be back, with a mutual option on Looper. The following year, we lose Suppan and Bush, but it is feasible that someone decent will be up from the minors by then. If this year's rotation isn't good enough, they're not likely to be good enough next year either, making picking up another starter a top priority. This leads us to the position we're currently in: The central has been weak this year, and therefore we've been able to stay in striking distance, even though we haven't played all that well. That said, do we think we're contenders, in which case we should look to add pieces, or do we think we probably won't be able to keep it up this season, in which case we should look to shore up our rotation for the next couple of seasons? I don't think we'll be able to answer that question right now. I'd hate to give up some players that could be a big part of our future and not even make the playoffs, but I'd also hate to sell off and then see the NL Central won by an 86-win team. Personally, I think the next couple of weeks will be very telling. If we play poorly, we're likely to get far enough back that we'll sell. If we play well, we'll mortgage some of our future to add a piece or two. I guess a third option would be to use a mid-tier prospect to bring in someone like Doug Davis, although his price tag will go up if he keeps pitching well. If we're buyers, Halladay would be wonderful, as he'd be here next year as well, but that also makes him really expensive in terms of prospects. As others have said, he's probably worth the price tag. If we're sellers, Hoffman, Cameron and Looper could all bring back a decent return from a contending team. Kendall and Counsell may even bring something back (although not too much) from the right team. As far as the near future goes, I've touched on the rotation, which will look much the same next year as this year. I'd guess Hardy ($4.65MM this year in 2nd year of arby) and Hart ($3.25MM in 1st year of arby) are dangled in the offseason to try to bring in a decent young starter to replace Looper ($4.75MM), who isn't likely to be back. Cameron ($10MM), Kendall ($4.6MM), Hoffman ($6MM) and Counsell ($1MM) will be gone, freeing up a decent amount of salary. Kendall should be replaceable by putting a crash-test dummy behind the plate, but Cameron will be hard to replace, especially considering Cain lost time to injury this season. Fielder will likely be back, as we don't have anyone (with the possible exception of Gamel) to replace him. A hopefully-healthy Weeks will be back, giving a big boost to our offense. Escobar should man SS for a long time, and McGehee should at the very least be a good utility player for a number of years. For those yearning for a Hart trade, remember that trading him and losing Cameron (who probably won't sign a one-year deal to stay in Milwaukee) will likely mean an outfield of Braun and either Cain, Bourgeois or Gerut in CF and Katin or Gillespie in RF. Not really fear inspiring. If Hardy can be traded for a decent young pitcher, I'd guess we'll see Hart in RF for one more season. In this scenario, we will shed $31MM (Hardy plus the FA losses) and have a team of: SP Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, person we get in Hardy trade; RP Coffey, Villy, DiFelice, Stetter, McClung, Riske(?) and others; 1B Fileder, 2B Weeks, SS Escobar, 3B Gamel, OF Braun, Cain/Gerut, Hart, C Salome/Lucroy and Rivera. Hall's bloated contract will stick around until we DFA him. Yo will need to be locked up and we will of course add salary through pay raises, but we should have some money to fill some holes. That, in conjunction with hopefully picking up a decent pitcher in a Hardy trade (or for Cameron/Hoffman/Looper/Counsell/Kendall this season) should be enough to field a decent team next year. For the longer term, we have some good prospects, including good starting pitching prospects, in the minors. Plus, the recent trend of locking up young players to long deals should help the Brewers keep players such as Yo, Gamel, Escobar, Lawrie, etc., for 7-8 years instead of the normal six. Honestly, it hurts to think of this stuff in the middle of the season, as these types of posts are usually reserved for December, but hopefully we'll win tonight and tomorrow against St. Louis, be tied for first again, and all will be well with the world. Of course, the thought of trading Hoffman and Cameron to a contender for a good young starting pitcher will still be compelling.

More like Parra. Dillard, Jeffress for DeRosa and Lee. Looking back, it would've been pretty nice if we'd have made that trade on May 20 when this was posted

With the way Parra has pitched in the majors this year, it's hard to imagine another team viewing him as anything more than a throw in. It's likely not indicative of his true talent, but we don't really know what other teams think of him at this point. Haren would be a perfect player for us to acquire, but as has been stated, would take a boatload of talent and likely won't happen. That said, Parra still has a lot of value, even though he's had a rough season. Lefty starting pitchers that throw in the mid-90s and have shown past success are not "throw-ins." Even players like de la Rosa, who has never been able to throw strikes, has always had some demand. Trading Parra right now would likely be "selling low," but he'd still bring back some talent, particularly to a team that is looking to the future and not playing for this season.

I've heard Melvin in interviews saying that DiFelice can't get lefties out. Whether it's true or not is moot. If the GM thinks it, DeFelice won't be a starter.

It makes me wonder if there's some sort of power struggle going on between Macha and Melvin Isn't that what got Melvin fired in Oakland? I've kind of wondered if Macha was showing who's in charge of the lineup by sitting Gamel. I hope that's not the case, as screwing with your top prospect over "office politics" is a bad idea. And JJ, TheCrew is right. I am on board with you and the others who are upset with what's going on with Gamel.

Pinch hitting McGehee for Gamel was absolutely the right decision in that situation, and given how Gamel had performed at the plate that day. I wish McGehee had been as highly touted as Gamel when he came to the Brewers. Maybe that would cut down on some of the criticism around here. I'm glad McGehee is doing well, and I hope he can keep it up all year. I'm fine with the current situation of Counsell at 2B, McGehee at 3B vs. a righty and McGehee at 2B, Hall at 3B vs. a lefty. However, I am not fine with Gamel riding the bench while all of this happens. Send him down until he's needed. You will save service time so you get him one more year down the road (or save money in a long term deal) and you keep him playing full time. I've said it 4 times now, Nashville, he's not a bench player, he's not accustomed to the role. And it's not a role I want him getting accustomed to. That role is for "has been's" and "never will be's" like Counsell and Brad Nelson, not for someone you are basing much of your team's future on. Maybe they also figure Gamel is a better bench option than Heether (who I had never even really heard about until suddenly this season, which makes me rather pessimistic about his realistic potential contributions), or some other AAA call up. Adam Heether plays 2B / 3B 2009 Nashville .331 avg / .434 OBP / .558 Slg / .992 OPS 2008 Nashville .383 OBP / .446 SLG / .829 OPS milb.com doesn't have stats beyond that other than to say he hit .299 in 2007 in Huntsville. I do remember he had a pretty good year for Beloit back when they were the Brewers' farm team. However, he was selected in the 11th round of the 2003 draft. Late round selections have a hard time getting noticed, especially when players such as Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, etc are grabbing all of the headlines. He looks to be a decent player in a bad situation. Weeks and Braun were the 2B / 3B prospects ahead of him, and when Braun got moved to LF, Gamel was the heir-apparent at 3B. This is a perfect case of someone who should be able to help the Brewers in a bench / utility role. He may never be a starter, and he's already 27, so "misusing" him won't be a worry and he could help out at multiple positions. Other than the fact that he's not on the 40 man roster, he would be a pretty good choice to take over Gamel's current role. As has been stated by others, Gamel is not producing as a bench player, he may not be the best starting option right now, and now that the Brewers have Cat & Gerut, another LH stick off the bench isn't that important. If the Brewers aren't willing to make room for Heether on the 40-man, which would probably mean dumping Joe Koshansky (.211 avg / .316 OBP / .421 SLG / .737 OPS 1B), they could call up Hernan Iribarren, who isn't having a terrible year (.298 avg / .355 OBP / .397 SLG / .752 OPS) in Nashville. On a side note, I hadn't realized how little wiggle room Melvin has on the 40-man. He's already put Weeks and Riske on the 60-day DL, and Koshansky is the only guy on the list that it wouldn't hurt too much to lose. This may make it hard to add Heether before July 31, as then any trade would have to include someone from the 40-man or we'd risk losing someone we don't want to lose.

Yeah, pinch hitting for your "top hitting prospect" with a RH hitter when a righty was on the mound was pretty telling as to how much faith Macha has in Gamel right now. Taking him out for defense is one thing, but pinch hitting for him in that situation doesn't exude confidence. The Kendall saga is a diffenet story all together. Personally, I think he's into hypnosis or voodoo. That would be the only reasoning I can think of that managers refuse to take him off the field.

Casey McGehee is hitting far over his head. We should be thankful for what we've gotten but not surprised if he cools off substantially at any time. So send Gamel down to get regular playing time until Casey cools off. Then bring him back up to play full time. Gamel is likely to not be Braun or Fielder. To my eyes he's likely to be Hardy or Hart - a mid level contributor. I'm not good at predicting how good a player will be, but he's been rated one of the top prospects in all of baseball by people who make a living rating players, so he could be something special. Besdies, Hardy and Hart have both been All Stars, so they're not really "mid-level contributors." He'll turn 24 next month. As such it's likely his best years will be spent in Milwaukee, barring an early trade, regardless of exactly where his arby clock is at. So we get him until he's 31 instead of 30 - that's one more year of him while he's in his prime. Heether is a 27 year old career minor leaguer having a good year. I think it quite unlikely he'd contribute anything if called up now. He is destroying AAA and has been a decent player throughout his minor league career. If we're talking about a bench player who will only get a limited amount of ABs, the difference between Heether and Gamel will likely be insignificant. 3B average 3 chances per game, 1 of which is a popup or line drive. Going to AAA for 2 ground balls a game isn't going to help much with the repetitions. With Willie working with him he's getting at least as good development work as he would in AAA. Practice is extremely important, but it is still very important to get regular playing time in games. Those three chances occur at varying times, unlike drills, where the coach says "I'm going to hit a grounder to you... try to catch it." I guess I dont' see what the fuss is about. Looking at the last month of games Gamel has been getting a fair amount of playing time in comparison with the other infielders. Just looking at a simple plate appearance total of ABs + BBs Many of those ABs occurred when he was used as a DH in interleague play. As was discussed at the time, that's a hard role to learn, and is often filled by a veteran. Players the caliber of Paul Molitor hated converting to the DH role, as they didn't feel like they were a part of the game. Who knows if it will, but it could actually hurt him to be used in a DH / pinch hitter role, as his rhythm can get thrown off, leading to a hitting slump, leading to him pressing, leading to continued hitting problems, and so on. I don't really care if Gamel plays on the Brewers or in AAA, but I think he should play. I agree that McGehee has earned the right to play every day, and Counsell is playing better then he has in years, so therefore Gamel should be sent down until there is a spot for him to play at the majors. If that's 2010, so be it. McGehee is the story of the year as far as I'm concerned. He's gone from obscure waiver claim, to 25th man on roster, to occasional 2 hole platoon player, to everyday middle of the order hitter and he's done it the old fashioned way. He's earned it. This is a guy who had no value last October and now he's a starter for a 1st place team that still is 2 years from arbitration after this year. Briggs, you're being modest. IIRC you're the one who touted McGehee all Spring Training, leading me to believe that he should be part of a starting 3B platoon from day one and Hall should be traded. It frustrated me to see him get absolutely no playing time for the first month, and I'm happy he's making the most of his chance (even though it only occurred due to Weeks' injury). We may have found someone who can help us at the Major League level for years to come. I agree with those who question Macha's handling of young players. It seems he's a "prove it" kind of guy. What happened in the minors doesn't matter... he'll play a worthless guy with big league experience over a young player with more upside. With limited reference, we have Hall being christened the starter before ST began, meaning youngsters Gamel and McGehee didn't have a shot, no matter what they did. Nelson was given 21 pinch hit ABs (1 start) before he was thrown out (although Melvin may have been part of this), Swindle was given little PT when he was up, even though he was a 2nd lefty in the 'pen, Corporan was given one AB during Rivera's injury, Suppan was named opening day starter over Yo. I'm sure I'm missing some, but that's quite a bit of "veteran favoritism" over a few months. Macha's won a lot of games as a manager, and knows more about baseball than I ever will, but I do get frustrated watching mediocrity play while better players don't.

So we've discussed the A's, Twins and Marlins methods of building a team. Now we have the Pirates... trade anyone on your team who has even a remote chance of becoming a good player. Overpay fan-favorites who aren't that good to long-term contracts that will disallow you from signing meaningful players that could help your team. Develop pitchers that have talent but can't put it together until they leave your team. I can't tell you how thankful I am that we have a new owner/management that builds according to the former methods rather than the latter.

In addition to Heether, we had DiFelice last year and Burns this year who have defied the age barrier to help the major league team. That said, whether you decide to keep the "age limit" or not will probably not have a big effect one way or the other. I'd be really excited if Burns continues to throw 6.1 innings, 2 ER like he did tonight against the Mets, but you probably aren't going to have many Top 10 prospects that are still in the minors past age 26. If we get to that point, it might be time to hope the Packers are putting together a good young team, because we won't be watching meaningful baseball in September for a while. Michael, I remember you touting Heether at a Snappers game a few years back. Good call, I hope the Brewers are able to find a spot for him.

Great job, guys. My big question is whether Macha will give Gamel 42 ABs before the next Power 50 is compiled, but that's probably for another thread. I'm not one who pays attention to amatuer players, so I have to go on your knowledge of the draftees. I sure hope Arnett lives up to the expectations everyone has for him. Good comments on Cody, Dillard and Green. The Brewers could use one of their AAA guys stepping up and helping the MLB team. I'd really like to see one of these three get hot and push McClung back into the 'pen. One thing that strikes me about this list/system is how DEEP it is. Agreed. A long time ago, Melvin said he wanted to use the Twins' model to build the team. It appears he's succeeded. We have a largely home grown team on the field in Milwaukee with plenty of talent coming up through the system. Plus, the draft picks we're likely to get for Hoffman and Cameron should allow us to have another deep draft next season, helping assure that the next ten years will be more successful for Milwaukee than the previous ten years. I appreciate all of the hard work everyone here does, as it helps me "see the future" as to what the Brewers will look like over the next few years.

It is because he is JJ and people like him. When Hall, Hart, or Weeks struggle people wanted him gone and it was a topic in the blogs and all over this board. I loved Hall back when he could hit, and was ecstatic when he signed his big contract. The problem is he forgot how to hit about five seconds after he signed the contract. I sat with the Hart family in a Spring Training game and they were some of the nicest people you'll ever meet. That doesn't change the fact that pitchers figured him out shortly after the All Star game last year, and he needs to make some adjustments or his career will be pretty short. As far as liking players goes, I like our whole team. There's not a personality on the team that you shouldn't like. However, some of the players aren't playing to the level needed on a championship caliber team. Others have explained why JJ is being let off the hook a little more than Hart or Hall, and I won't be able to do a better job explaining it than they have already done. For the record, I hope they can all pick it up, but if I was a betting man, JJ would be the most likely to end the season with "good" numbers. Hall should be a pinch hitter vs. lefties and a defensive sub. If Hart doesn't make adjustments soon, he will likely be replaced or at least platooned as soon as a reasonable replacement is available. In Melvin's comments on Brewers 360 this morning, he said something to the effect of: Parra's spot would be filled from within the system if he can't right the ship, and we've picked up some left handed bats, and they just need to get some more playing time to get in a rhythm. I expect Macha will start playing them more often.

I agree that it's to keep Burns starting in AAA. If we need a spot starter at the MLB level, he'd probably be the guy at this point, as McClung and DiFelice would take a while to stretch out. I wouldn't really trust most of the rest of the Nashville staff to make a major league start. Also, does this move mean that we finally get rid of Wright, or is Cody (or someone else) going to be sent back down?

Is Boras insistant that this be a signing bonus, or could the Nats just sign him to a 6 or 7-year, $50MM deal? This would be a win for Boras and his client, as they would get the guaranteed money, while Washington would get a player that isn't likely to play in the minors anyways signed to a long term MLB deal. Afer all, Longoria signed before really playing in the MLB and more and more young players are signing long term contracts early. This just adds risk to the Nationals because it eliminates any potential for playing the minors. If he gets lit up early on, he'll still get paid even if he gets sent down. Plus, they really would only get 5 1/2 years, as he would get paid this year, which is partially gone.

It's too bad Heether plays a position where we have so many players. Other than multiple injuries or a DFA of Hall, I don't really see a situation where he'd be up before September. Next year, Counsell will likely be gone, and it would be nice if we could get rid of Hall. That still leaves Gamel and McGehee. If Gamel can't stick at 3B, Heether could potentially become a starter. However, you'd probably need to see either Fielder traded or Hart traded/moved to CF in order to open a new position for Gamel. It's probably more likely that Heether takes over a utility role for the Brewers, so getting time at positions other than 3B would probably benefit him this season. I wouldn't mind seeing Heether and McGehee as our utility IFs next year. However, I think we'd be weak at backup SS, and I don't see Heether getting time at SS with Escobar at AAA. We'll probably see Counsell sign 1-year contracts until he's 50.

Pitching as a reliever can be at least as damaging to an arm as pitching as a starter. As a starter, you generally get more innings, but you are on a defined schedule. As a reliever, you get up & down, pitch several nights in a row, etc. Jones seems to be doing well this year, and should only pitch as a reliever if it's in Milwaukee. Who knows where Rogers' future lies, but I hope he can stay healthy so we can see how good he is.

Aren't MLE calculators by nature pretty tenuous? Predicting the future is impossible, but it's easier to predict what someone with major league experience will do in future major league games than it is to predict what someone with no major league experience will do. Of course, GMs need to use something to help make their decisions, but it's far from gospel. After all, the Cardinals were idiots for bringing up Pujols, who had no chance to succeed, while players like Dallas McPherson, Corey Patterson, Joey Meyers and thousands of others were sure things. I think Hart is going to get a very long leash due to his past success, and barring a Braun or Hart injury, Katin has little chance of being called up now that Melvin has picked up Gerut and Cat. Getting on base better than 33% of the time would help. You're right, OBP is very important, but it isn't the only skill for a major leaguer. Katin has ability, and would seem to have the ability to help a major league team. It would be wonderful to field a team full of players that get on base at a .400 clip and hit 30+ HRs, but that's hard to do. When that's not an option, I like to have high OBP, low power guys batting 1/2/8 in the order and high power / low OBP guys batting 5/6/7 in the order. I don't know if Katin will ever help the Brewers, but I'd bet he'll play on a major league team. Katin isn't even the best offensive player on the team. Adam Heether has an OPS a full 100 points higher. And Prince, JJ, and Cameron aren't the best offensive players on the Brewers, but I hope they keep them in the lineup. Heether is cursed by being blocked. The Brewers already have Gamel, Hallbatross, McGehee and Counsell who all play 3B. I doubt the Brewers will DFA Hallbatross, as he does have value against LH pitchers and in that he can play all the IF positions, so even though Heether could likely outhit Hall, unless they somehow find a way to trade him, Hall will be on the MLB roster. Katin, on the other hand, is blocked by Hart, who has shown that he has talent, but is in a really long slump. Gerut has also shown talent in the past, but is having a horrible year, and Cat wasn't even on a MLB roster until Nelson went 0-for-21. As I said earlier, I don't think he'll be called up without an injury, but Katin is definitely making it a tough decision for Melvin, which is the most any AAA player can do. Here's an idea: Now that it appears Gamel may finally get the starting nod over Hall, we may need someone who can actually hit to be DH in our next interleague series. It probably won't happen, as they'll probably DH Gamel and play Hall, McGehee or Counsell at 3B, but it's a thought.

It's kind of nice that we have some decent young bullpen arms. Hopefully this will keep Melvin from making some of the expensive bullpen mistakes we've seen in the past few years. Good luck to Smith. I hope he can keep up what he's been doing in AAA.

Katin's got another 2 HR night tonight.

I think there's a rule somewhere that you don't trade for Braves pitching prospects, as they have a knack for keeping the ones that pan out and trading the ones that don't.

I don't. He might be someday, but he's 8 months older than Fielder and hasn't anything close to Prince's 2007 season. He's off to a great start this year though. It's pretty easy to forget how young our guys are. Yo is 23, Parra's 26, Fielder's 25, Gamel's 23, Hardy's 26, Braun's 25, Weeks is 26, Hart's 27, Villy's 25. It's just too bad we aren't still playing back in the days when players stayed with one team their whole career.

I would think that since all other factors never remain the same, reading the "noise" is an integral part of a GM's job. Of course, they're privy to "inside information" that we lowly fans will never know. As an aside to those who know more about this than I, how do you attempt to predict an individual's standard deviation / year-to-year variance? It would seem likely that certain players would have more year-to-year variance than others. As Ennder has alluded, a three week stretch that is very hot or very cold can have dramatic effects on a season's stats. Players who are more prone to really hot / cold streaks could have more year-to-year variance. As an example, Prince Fielder hit 28 HR in 2006, followed by 50 in 2007 (a 79% increase), followed by 34 in 2008 (a 32% decrease). His corresponding OPS went for .831 to 1.013 to .879. Meanwhile, in Albert Pujols' first three seasons, he hit 37 HR in 2001, 34 in 2002 and 43 in 2003, with corresponding OPS of 1.013, .955 and 1.106. Of course, there are multiple other factors not shown here, many of which would be considered "noise," but a quick look shows a much wider range year-to-year for Fielder than for Pujols. I'd guess most players are less consistent than Pujols, but when trying to predict what a player will do year-to-year, it would seem that a standard deviation would need to be applied, and it would likely differ, perhaps significantly, from player to player. There are a lot of possibilities of what, if anything, is wrong with Hart, but one possibility is that he has a very large standard deviation. Maybe he's an .810 OPS player, but could vary from .750 to .870 on any given year. Just one possibility. Personally, I think pitchers have figured him out, and it's his turn to make a change. However, that's more of a "scout" thing, and I'm definitely not a scout.

This is who Gamel is sitting behind: Bill Hall 2007 Games 136 AB 452 R 59 H 115 2B 35 3B 0 HR 14 RBI 63 TB 192 BB 40 K 128 SB 4 CS 5 OBP .315 SLG .425 AVG .254 OPS .740 2008 Games 128 AB 404 R 50 H 91 2B 22 3B 1 HR 15 RBI 55 TB 160 BB 37 K 124 SB 5 CS 6 OBP .293 SLG .396 AVG .225 OPS .689 2009 Games 36 AB 116 R 13 H 28 2B 8 3B 0 HR 4 RBI 10 TB 48 BB 12 K 37 SB 1 CS 0 OBP .313 SLG .414 AVG .241 OPS .727 Keeping in mind that he has sat a lot against RH pitchers over the past few years, as bad as these numbers are, they'd be worse if he hadn't been semi-platooned. Billy's not the type of player that should be keeping a player like Gamel on the bench. If Gamel's up, he should be starting most of the games at 3B, using Billy against lefties and as a late inning defensive replacement when needed.

I just hope Swindle is able to stick with the Brewers for longer than the weekend. We can use the extra lefty, and he's pitched well enough to earn a spot.