monty57

I believe Hart and Fielder are both in their 1st year of arby. As others have stated, Fielder shouldn't get Ryan Howard money, and I expect $6-7MM for him. It will be interesting to see what he makes, as he isn't a ROY, MVP or perennial all-star. He did have a 50 HR season, but that was followed by 34 last year. His two year averages on the stats I believe are important in arby are 42 HR, 110 RBI, .282 avg. I don't know how much they take defense into consideration, but that would be a knock against him. I really think that Prince could be a case that goes to arby, as Prince / Boras will probably ask for the moon and not negotiate down. It could get kind of ugly. Since Hardy was around $2.5MM this year, I'd expect Hart to be in the $2-3MM range. In his first year, Hardy was also coming off an All-Star season, put up better overall numbers than Hart and plays a tougher position. Hart's 22HR, 86 RBI, .280 batting average aren't that great of two-year averages for a RF. The 23 SB's each year will help him. I'd think he'd be paid less than Hardy made this year.

I believe Hart and Fielder are both in their 1st year of arby. As others have stated, Fielder shouldn't get Ryan Howard money, and I expect $6-7MM for him. It will be interesting to see what he makes, as he isn't a ROY, MVP or perennial all-star. He did have a 50 HR season, but that was followed by 34 last year. His two year averages on the stats I believe are important in arby are 42 HR, 110 RBI, .282 avg. I don't know how much they take defense into consideration, but that would be a knock against him. I really think that Prince could be a case that goes to arby, as Prince / Boras will probably ask for the moon and not negotiate down. It could get kind of ugly. Since Hardy was around $2.5MM this year, I'd expect Hart to be in the $2-3MM range. In his first year, Hardy was also coming off an All-Star season, put up better overall numbers than Hart and plays a tougher position. Hart's 22HR, 86 RBI, .280 batting average aren't that great of two-year averages for a RF. The 23 SB's each year will help him. I'd think he'd be paid less than Hardy made this year.

I believe Hart and Fielder are both in their 1st year of arby. As others have stated, Fielder shouldn't get Ryan Howard money, and I expect $6-7MM for him. It will be interesting to see what he makes, as he isn't a ROY, MVP or perennial all-star. He did have a 50 HR season, but that was followed by 34 last year. His two year averages on the stats I believe are important in arby are 42 HR, 110 RBI, .282 avg. I don't know how much they take defense into consideration, but that would be a knock against him. I really think that Prince could be a case that goes to arby, as Prince / Boras will probably ask for the moon and not negotiate down. It could get kind of ugly. Since Hardy was around $2.5MM this year, I'd expect Hart to be in the $2-3MM range. In his first year, Hardy was also coming off an All-Star season, put up better overall numbers than Hart and plays a tougher position. Hart's 22HR, 86 RBI, .280 batting average aren't that great of two-year averages for a RF. The 23 SB's each year will help him. I'd think he'd be paid less than Hardy made this year.

No matter what the economy, there is seemingly always some team that "has to have" a player, so they overbid what anyone else would do in order to sign that player. Common logic would make you think that it's their problem, and will only hurt them if Lowe isn't worth this contract in a year or two. However, this now sets the negotiating bar higher for plaers like Sheets. While it is good for us in the sense that there is one less team in the bidding for Ben, it is bad for us that Ben and his agent will use this Lowe contract in their favor in upcoming negotiations. I highly doubt we will pay $13-16MM / year for Ben, even though the Lowe contract shows that Ben is probably worth it. The best example I can think of is the housing market. If you have a house worth, say $200,000. If your neighbor (with a similar house) sells his house for $250,000, now magically your house is worth $250,000. A 25% appreciation even though you didn't do a thing. Conversely, if the neighbor sold his house for $175,000, you just lost $25,000 in home equity / personal net worth even though you didn't do a thing. Like a house, players are market traded commodities that are worth what teams are willing to pay. When teams bid up or overpay for players, it makes all other similar players worth more. With this signing, someone will pony up a contract offer to Ben Sheets that is out of the Brewers' range. I really hoped the Brewers would be able to get Ben on a one year $10-12MM contract when everyone was saying that no teams were willing to put any money on the table. Now teams are going to get into desparation mode, and I think the chance of the Brewers signing Sheets just went way down.

Yeah, even as bad as Soup was last year, we can't think about trading him until we add some more starting pitchers, as we only have five in the entire system that are capable of starting a major league game. As others have said, Young isn't a significant enough upgrade for us to take on that contract. Hardy's better then him, Weeks is around the same as him for a much lower price and Escobar and Gamel will be up for league minimum next year. Edit: fixed grammatical errors

I agree that the Brewers should make up their mind on the future (and maybe they have). If they don't see Gamel as a future 3B, then they should move him. If they truly believe he can play passable defense at the position, they should keep him there. Personally, after this season I'd rather see them trade Hart or Prince, sign JJ long-term, move him to 3B with Escobar at SS and put Gamel in RF or 1B. I don't think JJ would have any problem moving to 3B (physically, I'm not looking at whether he'd want to or not), but if they want Gamel in a new position, it should definitely be done now. I agree with CheezWizHed that there won't be a problem finding a position with Lawrie - they're just looking at how to best use his above average abilities. As far as Salome, from what I hear he wouldn't project to play well at any position other than catcher, so they need to keep him there to see if he can become a decent defender. Hopefully that will happen this season at AAA, as we will have a nice spot for him to fill on the MLB roster in 2010. If he can't fill the position next year, it would be a stretch to believe that Lucroy or Lawrie would be ready by then. Logan hit it on the head regarding draft philosophy. Jack Z really looked for power bats, and we've filled the roster with them. It's frustrating to many to watch strikeouts and bad defense, but we have a much better team today then we've had in a long time.

Kind of interesting that Sheets is ranked higher, but Lowe has gotten a lot more interest. Based on the rankings, Sheets should get a similar deal, but I doubt he'll get as much. If he does, there's no way we'd still be in the running for him.

Sitting at home with my wife and 3-year-old son

Here's a good article from Yahoo talking about the Blue Jays that answers some of the "Why trade Halladay" questions. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmipUaV9T5xNyEOzTGGTI6D.gYl4?slug=ge-hsdbluejays010909&prov=yhoo&type=lgns He's definitely an ace pitcher, and we'd control him for 2010, making it that much more appealing. As with everything, there's value and price. He has a lot of value, but at what price? The Cubs got Harden for a lot less than we paid for CC, so maybe we overpaid and wouldn't have to give up as much as we did. If the price is too high, we'd of course have to pass. An opportunity cost would be "What could we get for Prince after the season?" If we trade Gamel, we probably can't trade Prince next offseason unless we don't want to score runs in 2010. Also, will Hardy sign long term? If so, Escobar becomes more expendable. We'll never have too much pitching, so Jeffress would be a hard one to trade. We're building somewhat of a surplus of catchers in the minors, but the Jays have J.P. Arencibia, so they probably wouldn't be enticed by the inclusion of a catcher. A very interesting question without a clear cut answer. It's hard to not make a move that would help cement a playoff bid. However, we are getting close to the point where Prince, Corey and JJ will be gone. If we trade away too many chips from the high minors, we could have some really ugly years ahead of us. If you were able to sign Hardy long term and trade Escobar along with some others to get Halladay, our 2010 roster could be: C Salome 1B Prince 2B Weeks / Taylor Green SS Hardy 3B Gamel LF Braun CF Cain RF Hart SP Halladay SP Gallardo SP Parra SP Jeffress (will he be ready then?) SP Suppan (it seems we'll never be rid of him) or Bush That'd be a pretty good team, especially as some of the players the Cubs signed to long-term contracts start turning 35/36 around that time. I'd say if you made this move, you'd have to hold on to Prince in 2010 and go for it all. After 2010, we get rid of Suppan, Hall and Riske's contracts, get draft picks for Halladay and trade Prince as he'll be heading into his final arby year. With the money we'd shed and the core of players we'd still have, we may even be able to keep a decent team together for 2011 and beyond. With that in mind, I'd say given the right circumstances and the right price, I'd make the trade.

Here's a good article from Yahoo talking about the Blue Jays that answers some of the "Why trade Halladay" questions. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmipUaV9T5xNyEOzTGGTI6D.gYl4?slug=ge-hsdbluejays010909&prov=yhoo&type=lgns He's definitely an ace pitcher, and we'd control him for 2010, making it that much more appealing. As with everything, there's value and price. He has a lot of value, but at what price? The Cubs got Harden for a lot less than we paid for CC, so maybe we overpaid and wouldn't have to give up as much as we did. If the price is too high, we'd of course have to pass. An opportunity cost would be "What could we get for Prince after the season?" If we trade Gamel, we probably can't trade Prince next offseason unless we don't want to score runs in 2010. Also, will Hardy sign long term? If so, Escobar becomes more expendable. We'll never have too much pitching, so Jeffress would be a hard one to trade. We're building somewhat of a surplus of catchers in the minors, but the Jays have J.P. Arencibia, so they probably wouldn't be enticed by the inclusion of a catcher. A very interesting question without a clear cut answer. It's hard to not make a move that would help cement a playoff bid. However, we are getting close to the point where Prince, Corey and JJ will be gone. If we trade away too many chips from the high minors, we could have some really ugly years ahead of us. If you were able to sign Hardy long term and trade Escobar along with some others to get Halladay, our 2010 roster could be: C Salome 1B Prince 2B Weeks / Taylor Green SS Hardy 3B Gamel LF Braun CF Cain RF Hart SP Halladay SP Gallardo SP Parra SP Jeffress (will he be ready then?) SP Suppan (it seems we'll never be rid of him) or Bush That'd be a pretty good team, especially as some of the players the Cubs signed to long-term contracts start turning 35/36 around that time. I'd say if you made this move, you'd have to hold on to Prince in 2010 and go for it all. After 2010, we get rid of Suppan, Hall and Riske's contracts, get draft picks for Halladay and trade Prince as he'll be heading into his final arby year. With the money we'd shed and the core of players we'd still have, we may even be able to keep a decent team together for 2011 and beyond. With that in mind, I'd say given the right circumstances and the right price, I'd make the trade.

Good points on Nelson and Cain. Through my roundabout way of reasoning I've eventually come to believe that it would be a bad idea to start Gillespie on the major league roster next year. Do you think that Nelson / Nixon would play even if there were a month-long injury to Braun / Hart (knock on wood), or should Gillespie get a look in that situation? I know a lot will depend on what Gillespie does at AAA. At this point, my depth chart for CF would start Gwynn at the Majors, with limited PT. In case of injury, Cain would be called up rather than starting Gwynn every day. For corner OF, Nixon would start as our backup with Nelson possibly getting some action out there. If anyone was injured, I'd sure give Gillespie a look. Nixon doesn't seem like an everyday player anymore. Anyone have any idea how Nelson's defense would be as a corner OF? I imagine it would be bad, but would he be Carlos Lee bad, or would it be spin around in circles and fall down bad? While SP is our #1 need right now, it would sure be nice to see someone brought in as a backup OF, especially someone who could play CF.

I should clarify that I don't know if there was ever much in terms of formal conversations, but Smoltz's name was up there with Randy Johnson as "possibilities" that were unlikely due to the player wanting to play elsewhere. I know I read an article where Melvin talked about Johnson, where we met "4 of his 5 criteria, but weren't on the West coast" and I believe Smoltz was mentioned in that same article. I held out hope for one of them as long as I could, but eventually had to succumb to the reality that they wouldn't be pitching for the Brewers.

In reading the write up for the Top Prospect Fan Poll, the comments on Cole Gillespie jumped out at me. Could he be a dark horse for the 4th / 5th OF spot this season, or is he more likely to be Hart's replacement in a couple of years? There was a comment that with Braun and Hart in Milwaukee, Gillespie's future may be somewhere other than Milwaukee. If that's the case, he may fill in well as a backup, giving Braun and Hart the occasional day off. I know he's not left handed, but for the few days of rest Braun & Hart will get, does it really matter? If he's never likely to be a full-time starter for the Brewers, there shouldn't be much worry about starting his arby clock. I'd guess his competition would be Nixon, as we'd still need someone who could play CF, meaning it's pretty likely that Gwynn will be on the MLB roster unless someone else is signed. If Gillespie is seen as having a better future, I'd look to play him in AAA this season. If he puts up numbers like he did in AA (.281/.386/.472, 14 HR, 17 SB / 1 CS), he may make Hart expendable next offseason (or at the trade deadline if we're not in the hunt). As it stands, he and Trot Nixon look to be our primary insurance if Hart or Braun are injured this season. I guess as a younger (24) player, he may be better served getting PT every day. I may have answered my own question, but I guess I'd rather see him in AAA playing full time, with Nixon as the backup on the Brewers. If Braun or Hart get hurt, and Gillespie's been playing well, call him up to fill in for the injured player.

Isn't acquiring draft picks looking to the long term practically by definition? I don't see how that can possibly be viewed as short-sighted. I believe he's saying that the Brewers are being short-sighted by not taking the long term view (going for the draft picks). There is hardly any such thing as "risk" on a one year deal, especially at the prices the Red Sox are signing these guys at. Some (or possibly even all) of these guys could sit out the much or all of the season injured. The Red Sox would still have to pay them. Also, if the player misses the season or performs at a low level due to an injury, they will likely not be Type A FAs. Maybe not even Type B. Finally, if the player is healthy enough to play, but plays poorly because of rushing back from a major injury, they have to take up a 25-man roster spot. Those are a few of the potential risks. Not saying it isn't worth doing, but there are definitely risks involved in signing injured players. The Brewers could be doing this if they wanted to. The Brewers tried to sign Smoltz, but we were low on his list of destinations. I'd rather have a 100% healthy Hoffman than a big question mark in Saito. The Brewers are on a budget and the pressing needs now are finding a SP and a 4th/5th OF. Saito doesn't fill either of these needs. Baldelli would have been a good acquisition (in my opinion), but it seems like he wanted to play closer to home in Boston, so I doubt he would have chosen Milwaukee.

thanks for the info guys, I'm most worried about OF and SP. I think with the signing of Hoffman we have a lot of bullpen depth. After thinking about it, if Weeks gets hurt and Hernan isn't up to task, Gamel could come up to play third, and Hall could play 2nd. Nelson is at least a decent 1B option. It would definitely hurt our offense if Prince went down, but there's no team that would have a player in the minors to replace someone like Prince. Kendall isn't that good, so his getting hurt would hurt us defensively, but we'd probably upgrade offensively. If we are forced to replace Hart or Braun with Nixon, or Cameron with Weeks, I think we're in a world of hurt. As it stands right now, if one of our starters gets hurt, we're in trouble. I could very easily see a scenario like a few years ago where we cycled through pitcher after pitcher until we finally found Villy in AA to come up and actually get some batters out. We need SP depth badly. Now that Hoffman's signed, Melvin needs to focus on signing anouth SP and some AAA SP depth, and it would be nice if he'd find a 4th OF better than Nixon / Gwynn.

First off, great signing!! Second, I hope there's still enough money to sign another starter, as beyond our starting five (including McClung), we don't have any insurance when someone gets hurt. Finally, I'd guess that Melvin offered Hoffman two choices. A two-year deal with more guaranteed, but less per year, and this incentive laden one-year deal, and Hoffman chose the latter. Again, just a guess, but from all of the reports saying they'd need to add an option or a second year, I'd think something like this had to have occurred.

I guess a lot of the "win differential" would be based on what to expect from Hart. If pitchers found a big hole in his swing that he can't close, he might not be nearly as good as most are projecting. For the second half of last season, Hart played like a platoon player, while Manny is one of the best bats in the game. I think Manny to Milwaukee has zero chance of happening, but I find it hard to believe that an OF of Manny in LF, Cameron in CF, Braun in RF would produce less wins than the current lineup. If Hart could be moved for a good young starter, it's a good idea. I just dont see the Brewers offering up the money it would take, and I generally don't like making moves that require a second move (sign Manny and then trade Hart). If you are unable to trade Hart for a decent return, you'd be stuck with too many good OFs. As far as endorsement possibilities, Manny's been in Boston and LA... has he had many "non-baseball" product endorsements?

IMO, if they can sign Hoffman and Sheets, it will have been a great offseason. I'd say they'd at least be as good and probably better going into this season than they were going into last season. Let's get this deal done!

Well, that's a very good signing for the Rays, and hopefully one that can keep them ahead of the Yankees. On a negative note, this will amost certainly destroy any trade value Cameron or Hart may have had this offseason. If a team can sign Abreau or Dunn for $7-9MM per year, there's little hope of getting any return from Hart or Cameron. On a positive note, this shows the value of "2nd tier" players is definitely down, so maybe we'll be able to re-sign Sheets after all.

I, too believe that they'll try to sign another starting pitcher for some depth, but Melvin made the comment that DiFilice might not make the team "because he can't get lefties out." Even if we do sign another starter, we're pretty thin if no one in our entire minor league system could be counted on to start a few games for the Brewers. I get scary visions of 2006 if any injuries occur. I hoped to hear something positive that maybe there was a sleeper somewhere. I try to be pretty optimistic, but the way it looks now, if anyone other than Hardy, Hall or Lamb gets hurt, we won't have any capable player to take their place. Are Iribarren and Nelson capable replacements, because if not, it looks like we currently have noone who plays 1B, 2B, C, OF or SP that we would be comfortable playing every day if someone gets hurt. This leads me to believe that we'll have to overpay for a rent-a-player when an injury occurs. I know a lot of talent has come out of the farm over the past couple of seasons, but I'm a little worried about the lack of depth at the moment. Please someone, tell me I'm wrong.

Most of you know much, much more about the Brewers' minor leaguers than I, so I'd like to ask you what Brewers farm hands have a realistic shot of making a splash in the 2009 Brewers season. Escobar and Gamel have been discussed at length elsewhere, but I haven't heard much about other possible contributors. With the shape of the MLB rotation, I'm especially interested in hearing your opinions on what minor league starting pitchers could possibly step in if/when we have an injury. For example, do we have anyone at AAA we'd trust in our rotation for an extended period, or would we be better off pulling someone like Brae Wright, Chris Cody or David Welch (all 25 years old) from Huntsville? Also, we only have four outfielders on our 40-man roster. Is there someone in the minors who should open the season as the 4th/5th OF for the Crew, is Trot Nixon the guy, or should we look at signing someone else?

While it is possible that the Cubs are clearing room to add a higher priced player, it's also possible that they are clearing room because their ownership just went bankrupt and they're looking to sell the Cubs in a down economy. DeRosa's a good player. Replacing him with Miles made the team worse. Trading for Peavy would easily make them World Series favorites, so I hope that doesn't happen. Milton Bradley has been left to walk from every team he's ever played on. I know the stat-guys don't think attitude matters, but for some reason the teams he's played with haven't wanted him back. One of the things that impressed me about the Cubs last year was how much they came together as a team. One example is when they saw Fukudome in ST and decided as a group that they'd work the count more, and everyone took more pitches and the team OBP went up. I almost hope they acquire Bradley. He'll disrupt team chemistry, play horrible CF defense and get hurt enough to throw any continuity out the window.

By 2020, the Red Sox will have called up the headless robot "Liu" after Joe Mauer will have stepped on a landmine, putting him on the DL. Well, if he hits .405 with 50 HRs, I think he's worh the call up.

John, I agree with what you're saying. My big worry is that the Brewers absoluetly need more starting pitching. Beyond Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan and McClung, you're looking at the likes of DiFilice and Narveson. As the current rotation stands, when (not if) one of our starting pitchers goes down, we could be stuck with a very bad starter pitching every fifth day for a couple of months. If Capuano is going to be healthy and MLB ready, it eases that burden a lot, but I think that's a big if. Unless a trade happens, it looks like we'll only be able to pick up one pitcher's salary. In that case, I think Melvin has to look for another starting pitcher. That will at least give us insurance against one significant injury. Now, if a Cameron trade goes through, we trade for a SP in an even money deal, or we're able to find money elsewhere, I'd love to see someone like Cruz at the back of the pen.

Cruz would definitely help the team, but I thought he was asking for a huge contract. Of course he could have brought that down. Throw in the first rounder, and it becomes less appealing. As far as Villy, Melivn has already said he's not going to be a starter. As it stands, McClung is the guy who's future (bullpen or rotation) is up in the air. It would be nice to see a "proven closer" signed that would keep Villy as the 8th inning / high leverage / multiple inning guy. However, after the Cameron deal fell through, I have the feeling that they're only going to be able to afford one good pitcher. I'd rather see a good starter brought in, putting McClung in the pen and sadding SP depth, than a good reliever brought in, leaving us with only five viable starting pitchers on our 40 man roster. Now, as to whether Looper is a "good starter" is an entirely different debate that I believe is going on at length in another thread.