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Everything posted by monty57
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Get Out and Vote - Write in the Muscle
monty57 replied to eanelson4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
As much as I like the idea of writing in Branyan, I have to vote for Chipper, Utley and even a few votes for Berkman over Prince simply because I don't want to see Cubs players voted in there. It's obvious most of the Cubs fans are simply voting for their team rather than voting for the most deserving players. I don't see any way Soriano, Fukudome and Soto aren't voted in, so if you don't want to see the Chicago Cubs trotting out 6 of the 8 starters, I think we need to make the votes count. -
One of the few things I dislike about professional sports is the lack of a "moral compass," which I think stems directly from the lack of ability to discipline players. The monetary fines are jokes to most of the players, and if a team tries to "do the right thing" and cuts someone for ridiculously bad behavior, they still have to pay the player, and the player will quickly find work with another team. I'm glad to see football finally stepping up and banning people from the league, which may be the only thing that gets through to some people. I feel that probably 99% of the professional athletes in this country are good people. This post is directed at the few athletes who feel they're above the law, and are proven correct in that assumption again and again as teams will overlook almost anything if they think a player can help their team win. I hope the Brewers steer far clear of Ponson. Unfortunately, some team will look past all of the ugly and look at the only thing that's important to many in the sports world: "Can he still play ball?"
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So... it's mid June. Buyers?
monty57 replied to kiwi brewer's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Vargas wouldn't fetch anything because of what he was owed, and Bush has some years left for essentially nothing. iirc, Vargas was around $3MM, while Bush is signed for $2.55MM in his first arby year, which of course is liekly to go up in his 2nd & 3rd arby years. In other words, you'd control Bush longer, but he's owed essentially the same as Vargas was owed. Melvin was trying to unload any of Capuano, Vargas or Bush during the offseason. He couldn't get any takers, so he dumped Vargas. I doubt this season's numbers will make Bush any more marketable. By the way, how would that Capuano and Hall for Rolen trade look now? -
Vargas wouldn't fetch anything because of what he was owed, and Bush has some years left for essentially nothing. iirc, Vargas was around $3MM, while Bush is signed for $2.55MM in his first arby year, which of course is liekly to go up in his 2nd & 3rd arby years. In other words, you'd control Bush longer, but he's owed essentially the same as Vargas was owed. Melvin was trying to unload any of Capuano, Vargas or Bush during the offseason. He couldn't get any takers, so he dumped Vargas. I doubt this season's numbers will make Bush any more marketable. By the way, how would that Capuano and Hall for Rolen trade look now?
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Vargas wouldn't fetch anything because of what he was owed, and Bush has some years left for essentially nothing. iirc, Vargas was around $3MM, while Bush is signed for $2.55MM in his first arby year, which of course is liekly to go up in his 2nd & 3rd arby years. In other words, you'd control Bush longer, but he's owed essentially the same as Vargas was owed. Melvin was trying to unload any of Capuano, Vargas or Bush during the offseason. He couldn't get any takers, so he dumped Vargas. I doubt this season's numbers will make Bush any more marketable. By the way, how would that Capuano and Hall for Rolen trade look now?
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With the loss of Wang, they may need to add another ace to make the playoffs. Frankly, I'd love to see the Yankees fail to make the postseason. My desire to see the Yankees fail to make the playoffs falls a far distant second to my desire to see the Brewers make the playoffs, and even become a perennial playoff contender. If the Brewers are unlikely to make the playoffs this year, and if they are offered a deal that will greatly help them make the playoffs for the next few years, they should do it. Considering the recent trend of locking up young players, a rotation headed up by Gallardo and Hughes (or other top-caliber young stud pitcher obtained in Sheets trade) for the next 6-8 years would be pretty nice. Add in Braun and probably Hart to go with the current group and the guys coming up from AA in a year or two, and you could be really good for a long time.
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There is also future value of a contract. I think signing Soriano to his deal was a worse move than signing Cabrera to his deal (let's forget for a moment that Cabrera is a much better player, and just assume they're currently the same talent level). Soriano will be something like 40 years old and making $20MM in his final year. I'll bet the Cubs will consider cutting his dead weight with about three years to go and eating the tens of millions of dollars they'll still owe him. Meanwhile, Cabrera will be in his early 30's when his contract's up, and probably still putting up monster numbers. Therefore, sometimes when you hear someone say it was a bad idea to sign the older player, it may be more because of what he will soon become rather than what he currently is. As far as current value to a team, you are absolutely correct. It doesn't matter how old a player is, what matters is his production.
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The platoon wouldn't work, as you'd essentially need to keep two players on five days' rest, which would be near impossible, as both starters would need to pitch the same day. They could go back to the old way they worked the rotation, skipping the 5th starter as often as possible. However, this would add innings to Parra (who is likely to be overworked this year already). It would also mean Sheets would pitch more. I have nothing to base this on, but Sheets' health this year could be directly related to getting a little more rest. It also wouldn't address any road vs. home splits. It would simply mean that Bush would pitch less.
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I agree we're too close now to consider trading Sheets. But lets assume that on July 30 we're 12 games back of the Cubs and 6-7 games back of Florida and St. Louis for the Wild Card. Would you still hold onto him for the two draft picks? Hughes currently has a hairline fracture in his ribs, and won't pitch for around two more months. The Yankees, as always, are in win-now mode. I'd have to think they'd give up Hughes and a good AA player for a player of Sheets' caliber. That would allow the Brewers to have another good pitcher next year, when they will also be in the playoff hunt rather than in 4-5 years when and if the draft picks pan out. If Sheets leaves as a free agent, which I think is highly likely as he'll probably receive a $100MM contract, we are going to be hurting in our rotation next season. If we're in a tight playoff race, then you don't trade him. If the playoffs look unlikely, I think Melvin has to see what he can get for him.
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I see LaPorta as a similar player as Prince Fielder. Would you trade six years of Prince Fielder for two months of Sabathia? I'd love to have Sabathia on the team, but not at that price. Plus, you'd be losing two valuable pieces to this team in Villy & Hall, so I don't know that we'd win many more games this season by making this trade. Now, having Sheets and Sabathia at the top of the rotation would definitely help us in the playoffs, so if we get really hot over the next month and are leading the wildcard race, I may change my tune. If we're still five or more games out of the wildcard race at the end of July, I probably wouldn't do it.
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With the Yankees in third place in their division, numerous pitchers injured, and the Rays seemingly in talks of trading for Griffey, I'd think the Yankees would pay a big price for Ben Sheets right about now. They were willing to offer Phil Hughes and other prospects for Santana in the offseason. If a few more weeks pass and the Brewers haven't gained any ground in the playoff race, the Brewers will have to consider trading Sheets, and the Yankees would be a nice trading partner. I'm no good at putting these proposals together, but a package built around Hughes, Kennedy or Chamberlain would give us a nice 1-2 punch at the top of our rotation (along with Gallardo) for a few seasons. Any ideas what type of return the Brewers could expect for Sheets?
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Fielder's value (and availability)
monty57 replied to Madtown Bomber's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The Marlins were able to get Maybin, Miller and the salary dump of Willis for Miguel Cabrera when he had one year of arby left. If we could get a return even close to that, I'd think Melvin would have to pull the trigger. -
15 million Dollars (Cameron + Gagne)
monty57 replied to Hate those Rodents's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Physically, Gagne still seems to have "the stuff." I think he lost his confidence during his time in Boston, with the entire national media telling him he was worthless. A closer without confidence = a bad closer. The Brewers took the risk that he'd get his confidence back, and it hasn't worked out. Hopefully, he will come back as a middle inning or setup guy and remember that he has above average "stuff" and can get hitters out on a regular basis. I'm glad to see Cameron in a place in the lineup that suits him. I never really saw him as a #2 hitter, and I think it may have gotten to him some. Even though the play last night upset me, Cameron is still a premiere defender. As far as his bat, he's someone who swings hard all the time. He'll strike out a lot, not get on base at a high clip, but will have a decent SLG. The Brewers looked for a left-handed hitting OBP machine during the offseason. When that player wasn't available, they ended up signing Cameron, which, as has been stated, is better than the other options available. As far as the complaint that they'll continue to get playing time over lesser paid but better players, hasn't that been kind of proven untrue this year? Bill Hall was platooned, even though he's making much more than Branyan; Cameron has been sat down to make more playing time for Kaplar; McClung has been added to the rotation when supposedly better prospects were struggling; Gagne was taken out of the closers role (if only for one game). It seems to me that Yost / Melvin are trying to put the best team on the field, regardless of pay scale or ego. Finally, if you are going to rail on the two "mistakes" Melvin made, why not give credit for signing Riske, Kapler and Kendall and trading away nothing to acquire Mota and Torres. All in all, I think Melvin did a pretty good job during the offseason, even if Gagne and Cameron don't live up to their contracts. -
Weeks to DL w/sprained knee; Iribarren Recalled (reply #25)
monty57 replied to wOOgiE22's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hall came up as a 2B, so it makes loads of sense to move him there while Rickie's out. This would allow him to play every day to see if he can break out of his "slump" vs. righties. It would also allow us to see more of Joe Dillon vs. lefties to see if he could be an answer if Hall were to be traded. As for the order, I'd probably move Hart to leadoff, Hardy to second and put Cameron at #5. Cameron seems more of a natural #5 hitter to me, as he's more of a SLG guy than an OBP guy. -
Kendall also has a clause in his contract that if he starts 130 games, he's automatically re-upped for next season. Since he's been playing pretty well, and the Brewers don't have other catching options, I'd guess the Brewers would like to see him back next year. That said, I agree with the theme of this post that Rivera isn't playing much at all, and probably should see a little more action.
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McClung to rotation, Villanueva to the bullpen
monty57 replied to splitterpfj's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The thing I have a hard time understanding is why, when the Brewers needed relievers, they've called up AAA starters to fill the relief roles. Now, when they need a starter, they don't have anyone left at AAA to call up to fill that role. Are all of the relievers in Nashville that bad? I have little doubt that Villy will be back in Milwaukee's rotation at some point this season, so I'd rather see him get sent to AAA where he can work things out as a starter. As has been mentioned, the Brewers already have DiFelice and Jackson as long men in the pen. Therefore, I fear that Villy is going to be used as a one-inning guy 3-4 times a week, and he'll have a hard time coming back as a starter when he gets it back together. Dillard is on the 40-man. It seems to me to be more sensible to bring him up to cover the one-inning stints, and let Villy remain a starter. -
I like Melvin a lot. He's created a team worth cheering for for the first time in many years. However, he has dropped the ball a couple times in building this year's team. First, we were forced to carry 14 pitchers after spending a lot of money to rebuild a bullpen. Now, we have the grim reality that our backup third baseman is Craig Counsell. Not only does he not hit nearly well enough to play third, I don't feel he can man the position defensively anymore. 3B is called the "hot corner" for a reason - it's much more reactionary than SS or 2B. When there have been line shots to Counsell at third, he looks like he's trying to save his life, not make the play. I've never been nearly as big a Branyan fan as some on this site, but he would fill two crucial roles for this team. First, he's a much better LH 3B than Counsell, and second, he's a power hitting LH bat off the bench. Currently, we have two light-hitting LH's off the bench. I thought Nelson would be a good guy to fill this role, but since we're now looking for a pseudo-platoon mate for Hall, Branyan makes more sense. Another thought... how does Dillon do against righties? His MLB stats aren't a very big sample (only 151 total MLB plate appearances), so does anyone know how he's done throughout his minor league days. If Hall needs to sit for a while against righties, and Branyan isn't brought up, I think I'd rather see Dillon get more starts at third than Counsell. Of course, this doesn't fit "the book" that says a platoon has to be a RH and a LH, even if the LH is terrible.
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My wife was a reporter for 15+ years. They are told a lot more off the record than they will ever go public with. The "information gathered" by Tom H is likely information for which he can't name the source & can't get into specifics about. Also, in the post-game interview, Trenni was really trying to get Gagne to say what the problem was, and sounded like she knew the answer, but couldn't get him to say anything more than "I have a better attitude."
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I'd love to see Tampa Bay do well. However, it's really the Red Sox division to lose, and I'll only believe the Yankees won't be in the playoffs after I've seen it happen. It seems that they always falter somewhat in the start of the season, bringing up all kinds of stories of their demise, only to come on strong and end back up in the playoffs. $200MM has to buy you some kind of talent and depth, right? Tampa does have a solid group of young players, and should be good for the foreseeable future, making them a good comp to the Brewers. It's lucky for us that we only have one free-spending team in the division, while Tampa plays in the most free-spending division in the league.
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Well, in the past the coaching staff had no problem telling the media what they tought was the reason for a pitcher's poor outings. With Gagne, Yost said "I'm not going to tell you what he's doing, but it was obvious." That makes it seem that Gagne was tipping his pitches. Once Yost got him in a 8-1 game to make sure he wasn't tipping the pitches anymore, he's once again the closer. Check things like how he's holding his glove before the pitch, or whether he always throws a certain pitch after one of his walks around the mound. Maybe he started throwing his change-up from a different angle than his fastball, but I agree with the previous poster that this might not be a minor fix. It's hard to say exactly what it was, but I hope it was corrected.
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Will the Brewers Get Over .500 Again in 2008?
monty57 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I generally try to remain level-headed about things, even though it's not always easy. I enjoy reading your posts because whether people are being overly positive or overly negative, you tend to do your best to present facts. Over time, things with long-term trend lines tend to revert to the mean... gas prices will come back down, the stock market will go back up, we will eventually have sunny 80 degree days this year, and the Brewers will win a few more games this season. -
Will the Brewers Get Over .500 Again in 2008?
monty57 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I suggest a new poll: When the Brewers have a tough stretch, should we (A) Read & think about what rluzinski's saying or (B) Jump off the highest building I was, however impressed that it took two posts before this turned into another "Fire Ned Yost" thread. -
I can't see how this isn't seen as a huge compliment. "You make a perfect pitch and he still hits it for a single, you make any mistake at all and it's a home run." If I were a hitter and the opposing team's ace pitcher said that about me, I'd be pretty happy.
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Joe Dillon still underappreciated / What to do about Bill hall?
monty57 replied to AJAY's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
All of our infielders not named Prince could use more "days off." It's just a shame that Counsell is primary backup for SS & 2B. JohnBriggs makes a good point that Dillon could play 3B, shifting Hall to SS. That way, Dillon could get could get two starts a week at 3B, and Counsell would get one start a week at 2B (although Dillon could play 2B and Counsell could be left to rot on the bench), giving Weeks, Hardy and Hall one day per week off. I still believe that all three will heat up at some point, but it's hard right now to see so many of our players underperforming at the same time. -
The way Aramis has been throwing the ball to 1B looks as though he wants Derrick Lee to get injured. Maybe Aramis is having some arm problems. Every game that I have seen from the Cubs Aramis has been throwing the ball very poorly. It looks as though something is wrong with his elbow when he is throwing the ball. Nearly all of his throws have been waist down. Rarely have I seen Aramis throwing the ball to the chest or even above Lee. They have been either waist high or lower. This could be hazardous for Lee if he has to stretch out a little bit more and a runner hits him as he is stretching for a ball. This was the same way he got injured before if I remember correctly. I noticed the same thing about Aramis' throws. If it weren't for Lee, the Cubs would have an average-at-best defense, especially with Soriano in left and DeRosa at 2B. They were much better defensively with DeRosa in LF and Fontenot at 2B. As far as Lee's injury, he broke his arm/wrist while tagging a runner when a throw was up the line. It's sad that I see so much of the Cubs, but I guess that's what I get for living in Illinois.

