monty57

Generally, 1B is considered the last stop on the defensive spectrum before DH. The only 'requirement' to play 1B is generally some length, as a taller, longer person can reach further for errant throws. That said, if you can hit like Prince Fielder, that's not a big deal either. I think the most important factor in 1B is his ability to scoop, saving his IF a lot of errors. Most MLB corner OFs should be able to transition to 1B if given an offseason and spring training to do so, but not everyone will be able to make the move. I would guess that some of our prospects could be moved to 1B and it wouldn't take too long before they would be able to play there at an acceptable level. Guys like Coulter and Nottingham have the traditional build you'd like for a 1B, so they are likely candidates to move if their bats get them to the MLB level.

Hopefully this is "sink or swim" as a starter. If he can't cut it, they need to move him to the bullpen quickly to see if he could have any value to the team in future years. I can't see them paying him arby salary to sit in AA "working things out" next year.

Yes, I do. Perez has a career minor league line of .264/.305/.359/.664. He's had a nice run this season in his 203 AB (about 1/3 of a season). It's probably about as good as we can hope to get out of him in any given 1/3 of a season. His .291/.316/.458/.774 has brought his career MLB numbers all the way up to .256/.276/.364/.640. He's 25, so he could level out to a low-.700's OPS guy for his career. That's fine as a super-utility, but not exactly what you're looking for in a corner OF. Santana hasn't played up to expectations, but even playing hurt he's put up a line of .234/.347/.391/.737 in 128 AB. His career minor league numbers are .282/.373/.485/.858, so while he's been able to keep a decent OBP this year, I think he'll show more power than he has. He's likely to put up an OPS over .100 points higher than Perez, with more power and a much higher OBP. Plus, he turns 24 today (Happy birthday!), so he's 1.5 years younger than Perez. I'm glad Perez is putting together a decent season, and he's solidified his place on the Brewer 25-man roster, but no way should he block Santana. Santana could have the value of a Corey Hart type player. Perez's main value is that he can back up a lot of positions and can hold his ground when he's forced into a starting role due to injuries.

Didn't forget them at all. I started to do a "best guess" group with potential salaries, and the number comes to below $30M. Garza will be gone, and Braun is the only big salary on the team. Carter (if he's still around) will be the only guy past year 2 arby. Most of the arby guys aren't likely to be big money guys in arbitration, and any extensions we may do (i.e. early extensions to guys like Arcia or Brinson) would still be in the cheap years. If they choose to go that route, I think we should be able to extend some of our star prospects and sign a big name FA or two. Whether we will or not probably depends on how everyone progresses over the rest of this year and next. I fully believe that if Attanasio thinks we could have a shot at being good, he would not hesitate for a second to get in on a big money FA or two.

The main thing Brinson can do is be a complete stud, helping the Brewers win games. A secondary benefit to this is that he could allow us to take some time with other OF prospects like Phillips. I think/hope that Brinson will be ready at the start of next season. He may get the "Bryant treatment" and be held down until cutoff, but he should be the CF of the future starting in 2017. If he comes close to living up to his potential, we will be set in CF. Then, if Santana can stay healthy, we could have a decent group of OF, with a decent group of OF prospects coming through the ranks. This gives us a lot of options going forward, which is a good thing.

I don't know how things will shake out, but we should have a total team payroll of around $30M (leaving us around $70-80M to spend) with this as the list of potential free agent SP going into 2018 (courtesy of Cots): Henderson Alvarez Jake Arrietta Clay Buchholz Madison Bumgarner * Matt Cain * Tyler Chatwood Wei-Yin Chen * Alex Cobb Yu Darvish Felix Doubront Danny Duffy Nate Eovaldi Marco Estrada Yovani Gallardo * Jaime Garcia Matt Garza * Gio Gonzalez Miguel Gonzalez Jason Hammel Matt Harrison * Derek Holland * Hisashi Iwakuma * Ubaldo Jimenez John Lackey Francisco Liriano Jordan Lyles Lance Lynn Kris Medlen Wade Miley * Mike Minor * Matt Moore Charlie Morton Jon Niese Ricky Nolasco * Jarrod Parker Mike Pelfrey Martin Perez * Michael Pineda Tyson Ross CC Sabathia Chris Sale * Anibal Sanchez * Hector Santiago Chris Tillman Josh Tomlin * Jason Vargas Edinson Volquez Chris Young *

I think Pina and Maldonado split time through August to see who will stick around as Susec's backup next year. Really, it'll come down to whether Pina is bad enough that we'd pay a couple million to keep Maldonado for another year. Susec has the most upside, so I think he will be up in September and the job will be his to lose. Whoever gets the job, it's probably likely that we will see a lot more of the backup than we saw with Lucroy. It's rare to have a catcher play as much as him. Ideally, both Susec and Pina will be good enough that management is willing to go with them into next season, and we can flip Maldonado this offseason for a couple of teenagers Stearns likes but no one on here has ever heard of.

I'll vote Jon Perrin and his 118:17 K:BB ratio, 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP. I don't know anything about his stuff, but man do I like those K:BB numbers, even if he is a bit old for his level. But congrats to Woodruff on getting named Pitcher of the Month. Great to see Brewer pitching prospects doing well.

Again, no small market has had a large window where they have made the playoffs for let's say 5 out of 7 years, made multiple World Series, winning To be fair, very few big markets have had a run like that either. It's really hard to make the playoffs year after year, but as long as the arby/pre-arby system exists, I think the best way for a small market team to succeed is to always have a good number of quality pre-arby/arby players on the roster, and the only way to do that is by continually looking for ways to stock the farm. Basically, once you're "there," you just need to add to it more than you take away from it. It's not taboo to trade a prospect for a MLB player, but you also need to be willing to trade MLB guys for prospects. And yes, having some competency in the draft would help. I think teams like the Yankees were very smart this year. With so few "sellers," the market was ripe for selling, so even though they were still "in it," they felt the return they could get was worth punting this season. They are now very well set up for the future. I think too often teams with any chance of making the playoffs refuse to sell, and that's just playing against the odds. To topic, the Brewers have, in a very short period of time, went from one of the worst farms in baseball to one of the best. They have a foundation set at the MLB level, and should be competitive soon, and they have talent all the way down to the rookie level. Things have went really well so far, and for the first time in years I'm excited about the future... just don't screw it up.

The Pirates are having success? Really? How is their past 5 years better than the Brewers run from 2007 to 2012, which you criticize? After their run, the Pirates still have a top 10 farm system, and while they've had a somewhat down year this year (they are still in the WC race), they still have a very bright future.

Correct. The Brewers are not simply looking to free up salary, nor should they be with their current financial situation. Braun is only getting traded if the Brewers get a lot of prospects back. Braun has a lot of value to the Brewers. He doesn't seem to have a lot of value on the trade market. He will not be traded unless the value on the trade market surpasses his value to the Brewers. Therefore, I do not see Braun getting traded, and he certainly won't be given up for nothing on a waiver claim. With Braun remaining a Brewer, the Brewers could be a .500 team as soon as next year. Therefore, I don't see them trading away much more MLB talent unless they're blown away.

I don't think management is interested in stripping all the talent from the roster. Rather, I think they have built a "base" on which they will now build. We traded Lucroy because of his relatively short team control and worry about another concussion destroying his trade value (i.e. it would have been stupid not to trade him). We traded a couple of "proven" young relievers because the market was unbelievably strong for them, and the return was impossible to pass up. We held onto one of the three (Thornburg) because we still wanted to keep some talent in Milwaukee. We did not trade Braun because the demand wasn't there. Teams (like Atlanta) wanted to "take him off the Brewers' hands," while the Brewers would rather eat salary and receive top prospects back. Right now, I think the likely scenario is that Braun will remain a Brewer. If we are blown away in a trade, then anyone is on the market, but otherwise, I think we can see the path to the future: With Arcia coming up and Susec probably taking over as starting catcher, we have our offense lined up for opening day 2017, with the caveat that Brinson could start in AAA for a couple of months. A lineup consisting of Braun, Brinson, Santana, Carter, Gennett, Villar, Arcia, Susec, with Perez as super-utility is not terrible. There is not a spot that screams "get rid of this guy," and we don't have a looming free agent contract we need to trade off. Our rotation will likely include Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Hader as the top four, with Garza and Anderson around for the fifth starter role. I'd say Anderson #5 with Garza either cut or relegated to "long man." I'd love to see him get hot so we can trade him in a couple of weeks, but if that doesn't happen we're paying him anyhow, so keeping him as "long man/injury insurance" wouldn't be the end of the world. It makes no sense to sign a so-so starting pitcher FA, and I don't think we're ready to sign a TOR SP FA, so unless someone blows us away with an offer for Nelson or Guerra, I don't think much will be done. 2017 will be a year to see how they do before more SP rises from the minors. If the market remains crazy for relievers in the offseason, it's possible we make more trades, but I can't see anyone giving up much for anyone but Thornburg. If we hold onto these guys, we put Thornburg at closer and build from there, probably signing some FA "fliers" trying to catch some lightning. With basically a full season at closer by next trade deadline, if Thornburg can keep up his K:9 rate, he could get a massive return next trade deadline if we decide to sell at that point. The bullpen at this time seems to be a good area for teams in the Brewers' position to let "live armed" guys play to see if they can move from "little value" to "I'll give you our top prospect" value pretty quickly. There will certainly be moves made going forward, but barring an offseason Braun trade I think the path is pretty clearly laid out. Without any major moves, we have a foundation laid, and quality prospects are making their way up, making us a better team going forward. In other words, if we don't make anything but minor moves, I think we will be better next year than we were this year, and we aren't terrible this year. By 2018 we could actually be decent.

Stearns did pick up guys like Carter and Villar prior to this season in addition to a lot of less successful pick-ups of Kirk N, Flores, etc. By no means has he solely focused on the minor league, so it really depends on what you mean by "deals." If you are looking for him to trade away his prospects for short-term MLB "fixes," you will probably be disappointed, but I think the team will look to get a little more talent out of free agency this offseason, and at some point in the next few years will really make a splash in free agency. The good thing is that the farm will be how they supplement their MLB team with premium talent, which is something we haven't seen since "the first wave" ended with Yo and Braun coming up 8-9 years ago. With the strong farm, we can have a few quality guys making their way onto the roster every year, and that stream started last night with Arcia. Next year, we will probably see Brinson, Hader, and maybe Ortiz and Phillips, along with more "role players" like Wren and some bullpen guys. With talent throughout the system, and with a defined strategy of continuing to add talent to the farm, this should continue indefinitely. Assuming Susec can be a decent MLB starter, and Brinson will be ready sometime next year, we really don't have any huge holes to fill in our position players (Braun, Brinson, Santana, Carter, Gennett, Arcia, Villar, Susec with Perez at super-utility). Most upgrades there should hopefully come from the farm, which could allow us to have decent "MLB proven" guys to trade in future years as the prospects force their way onto the roster. The needed upgrades will be in our pitching. Thankfully, we have more pitching talent in the minors than I can ever remember. But my guess, and I know there are some who don't believe this is possible, is that when they feel they're getting ready to be good again, they will spend a lot of money and find a TOR starter in free agency, and slot guys like Hader, Ortiz and Bickford in behind him. Depending on how quickly the guys develop, this could be in the not-too-distant future. Of course there will always be players who don't pan out, and holes that we will fill through whatever means possible, but in general no, I don't think Stearns turn his focus away from adding talent to the farm. Small market teams can never have too much talent on the farm, as it's the only way they can ever hope to be good for more than a short "window' of time.

If Arcia is the player they think he is, the team just lit 10 million (at least) on fire. So what? It's their money to light on fire if that's a true statement. They have a plan to get him ready to be the opening day shortstop for the 2017 Mileaukee Brewers. I don't see an issue with that one bit. This might be the first of many moves to establish next years team. It could come into play if they are hoping to be a contender in 5-6 years and that extra money now cannot be used to add another piece, or if it keeps them from being able to extend Aricia or another player due to budgetary concerns. The Brewers have a lot of financial flexibility now, but they do have a limited budget, so they always need to be wary of "throwing away money." As I said earlier, I'm excited to see him play, and I'll trust the Brewers to know what's best for player development, but this does seem like odd timing, and I feel Attanasio always has one eye on keeping the fans excited to keep ticket sales from falling. If this is being done because it will help Arcia develop, then great. If it's being done to keep fans excited now, in hopes of not losing ticket sales due to trading Lucroy, then it seems short-sighted. While it may mean the team makes more money, it could hurt the team's long-term performance when we remember that this is a guy who we hope will be a perennial All Star in his prime and we're losing (or paying a lot more for) one of those prime years. On the surface, this seems a lot more like the latter than the former.

For the aforementioned service time issues, I wouldn't have done this. He hasn't hit well enough at AAA to force the issue, and Villar has been fine at SS. We could easily justify waiting until a month or so into next year to make the call, but since the Brewers did it, I'm excited to see how he performs.

Texas didn't want to give up Brinson, and the probably wouldn't have traded him if he had been healthy all year and played like he did last year when healthy. I would have to imagine that if Brinson or Ortiz had long-term injury concerns, the Brewers wouldn't have made the deal, so I suspect that once Brinson's fully healthy we will be very happy to have him. We now have a really strong farm, and many of the prospects will start making their way to the majors in the next year or two. I'm pretty excited about how far along we already are in the rebuild, since it basically started a year ago.

Like I said Ortiz alone is a better offer than the Indians entire package. Put without Gallo, why Jeffress, I thought the rumor was if Gallo was to be included, a Jeffress or Smith had to be included....Well we included him! Brinson is a pretty comparable comp value wise. They said they would trade Brinson for anyone but Sale. They would have preferred Gallo a week ago. Yeah, yesterday the rumors were that the Brewers preferred Brinson to Gallo, but the Rangers would only include him if Jeffress was in the deal.

I would guess there will be more pieces. Should be announced as soon as Commissioner's office okays it. Guess this means Thornburg gets the rest of the season to prove himself as a closer, so he can bring us a ridiculous return this offseason.

Rosenthal just said it looks like Brinson and Ortiz for Lucroy and Jeffress

Wow! I'll take it.

Gallo is hitting .250 in the minors with a 35% strikeout rate. It's quite possible that he hits .190 every year with a 40% K-rate in the majors. That is certainly a concern, but when you get someone in A ball, it's possible they never make it past AA. That happens a lot... look at our line of recent 1st round draft picks. At least with Gallo, you know he is going to play in the majors, so his downside is much higher than the downside for a talented guy in the low minors. Plus, his upside is enormous, so this isn't a "high floor/low ceiling" guy. I love getting teenagers when they're cheap and hoping they move up into the top prospect lists, but in moving someone like Lucroy, I'd like to limit the risk a bit. Get the guys you like who aren't yet on the top prospect lists with your other chips. In today's market, I would think they could have landed Mejia for Jeffress straight up. That would have been great. Then trade Lucroy for a package centered around a more advanced prospect, whether that's Gallo or whoever. These guys aren't always readily available, but it seems Gallo is available, so it's awfully tempting. Also, I agree that we shouldn't be looking specifically for positional need, but Gallo happens to line up exactly where we're thin. We can put him at 3B while we're not really looking to win at the MLB level anyhow. If he can't hold down the position, we'll trade Carter next season and move Gallo to 1B, where we have no prospects in the pipeline. Or, if Santana isn't holding his own (or can't stay on the field), or if Braun is traded, then we could try Gallo and his 98-MPH fastball-throwing arm in a corner OF position. There's always risk, and Gallo is far from perfect (there are no Harper's out there, and if there were, we wouldn't get them in trade), but Gallo has a lot going for him.

Thanks nodakfan. I'm not a CPA, but from everything I've heard, if you claim it as vacation property you can only use it for personal use for two weeks in order to claim deductions from the property. We plan on using it for two weeks each year until the kids are grown, at which point we will probably spend the winters down there. Thankfully, there is a good management team in place, so this is kind of "turnkey" for me. I could pretty much just let them do most of the work and it will be rented for a good portion of the year. Since it's 1000 miles away from home, this is necessary. Just be careful to check the management fees. We've been looking at vacation rental property for a long time, and the ones we looked at in northern Wisconsin years ago wanted 40-50% in management fees. Since the season is so short, after the fees we would barely have paid the property taxes with the rent we would receive. It really depends on your goals. I hate losing money, but in this case, we're also getting enjoyment out of it and have long-term plans to use it a lot more, so if it costs me more than it makes in rent, we're willing to dig into our pockets to cover the costs. As a pure investment, well, investments should bring in more money than they cost, and about the only way to do that in vacation rental condos seems to be if you can pay cash up front for the condo without taking out a mortgage. That or if you can keep it rented and do all the work yourself without a management team. Even then, be sure to check all your numbers. Hope this helps. If you want more of the boring details, PM me, and I'll try to help any way I can.

I like Mejia as well, and it appears that Stearns really likes him too. But as you said, he "looks like a fast riser." Gallo has already been a fast riser. He's made the jump past AA that a lot of players can't make, and has a .939 OPS in AAA as a 22 year old. If Mejia can continue his rise, then in two years, he will be worth far more than Gallo is currently worth, which is what Stearns is looking at, but his chance of failure is significantly greater than Gallo's, because he still needs to prove himself above A ball. Beyond that, Lucroy nixed that deal, so it's not on the table anymore. In my earlier post, I mentioned Mendez as the second piece, since we're looking at a package deal of Lucroy and a reliever. That's far more than "some B level prospects." This is a guy who would be slightly behind Hader, and has a pretty good shot of becoming a solid piece of our rotation for a long time, and since he's already pitching well at AA, he's not that far off from making his MLB debut. I love the thought of Hader/Mendez in our rotation for six years. Beyond that, sure, go ahead and throw in a couple teenagers that Stearns seems good at identifying. Going back to Mejia, since Stearns seems to covet him, I hope he is still in contact with Cleveland to see if he can work a deal to get him centered around one of our relievers. Miller gets a Top 30 guy and a top 100 guy. Chapman gets a Top 30 guy. Couldn't Jeffress get a Top 100 guy?

I'm fine with a return of Gallo, Mendez and a couple high-upside A-ballers. Gallo steps in as our everyday 3B immediately, with Arcia, Hader and maybe Mendez and Phillips arriving next year. We have a lot of young talent that can continue to add players beyond that, with around $80-90M in free cash flow to sign FAs and extend players. We need impact talent at any level, and Gallo provides that (at least according to pretty much everyone who is paid to evaluate these things). Mendez is 21 and is pitching well in AA, so he's looking like a decent bet to be able to cut it at the MLB level in a year or two. When trading someone like Lind, I like getting teenagers out of the top 100 who can become top 100 guys. When trading someone like a Lucroy package, I want a little more star power headlining the deal. Gallo may "bust" to the level of being the "next Branyan," but his chance of MLB success is far above that of most other current MiLB players. Then, hopefully Stearns still has time to trade his other relievers (those not in the Lucroy deal) for some other top 100 guys.

Wonder if Texas is still looking at a mega deal for Lucroy, a reliever and possibly a starter. I also wonder if Cleveland would want another reliever and be willing to listen to something like Jeffress for Mejia since Stearns values him so highly.