wntrtxn21
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Everything posted by wntrtxn21
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Hard to disagree. What I do have an issue with is how long it takes stellar players to get what they deserve. And yes, I understand the minimums are a generous salary to the average person, but the fact is that these aren't average people, and if the owner is able to start you on a major league squad and you smash 40 homers, then yes, I do believe he should have to pay you what is fair. And fair to me at that level is not 500k. What would you suggest? Paying players for their current performance? With MLB's guaranteed contracts, would owners be able to reduce the salary of that same player if he under performs the next year? I doubt any player would write an "over performing/under performing" type contract. Some players have incentives, but that's in lieu of a lower salary. Would the players go for completely incentivized contracts? If a player is traded, do the same incentives go with him? It's a very complicated system when contracts are guaranteed.
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For the most part hitters have adjusted to the increased speed. Granted there are guys with speed and a good breaking ball that dominate, but those guys aren't prevalent. Pitching dominates because the modern day player wants to hit the long ball on every swing. Players used to dread striking out. Now they swing for the fences no matter what the count and situation. The batting average is overlooked for the bomb. Putting the ball in play, moving a runner over, taking a walk to put a RISP is no longer admired. Launch angles, exit velocity, dinger distance, and whiffs have replaced basehits, batting average, and critical RBIs.
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Don't confuse quality with quantity. Miller is not an option. He's been awful even in the minors. Highly doubtful Wilkerson gets recalled ever again. Smyly is hanging on in AAA. Both Burnes and Peralta have been given enough opportunities and both have proven so far they can't be starters. Gio is hurt. Houser has been awful in a starter's role, pretty darn good in the pen. Anderson is a #5 at best. When he brings his A game he is decent. When he doesn't he gets shelled. Pretty much what you'd expect from a #5. Chacin has been wildly inconsistent, nowhere near the pitcher he was last year. Everybody has quantity. Few have quality enough to be consistent winners.
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Is it time to consider moving Hader
wntrtxn21 replied to brewers888's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
[sarcasm]Can you make them take Claudio as well?[/sarcasm] Seriously though, I think we're looking at having a loaded BP next year even if you take Hader out of the equation. If Hader can bring you back an elite haul, you have to consider it. I honestly like the idea of trading away a few assets, rebuilding or maybe more accurately re-loading quickly and then going for it. The other option, trading for players would require guys like Turang and that just doesn't seem worth it. Ray, Grisham...those players I'd be alright with, especially assuming Ray bounces back and ends up with a decent line and his value is restored. If we're going to part with someone like Hader though, I'd hope we'd get two elite prospects. I actually like the Forrest Whitely+Alvarez type deal...but that seems pretty far fetched. But I suppose that's your point. If someone offers that type of deal, take it. If not, his value probably won't change substantially over the next year and a half. What is your "loaded pen" w/o Hader? Wahl has pitched exactly 13 innings in the majors and is coming off ACL surgery. Knebel is coming back from TJ surgery and nobody knows how he'll respond (Nelson after nearly two years still ??). Jeffress is not anywhere close to what he was last year and looks to regress further. Albers probably will be gone. Guerra has been awful, Burnes may start or may be iffy in the pen again. Claudio is questionable at best, Peralta has been up and down and far from reliable. The rest of the slugs CC has run out there aren't even worth mentioning. Unless you know who Stearns is going to get, the pen looks to be anything but loaded next year w/o it's biggest weapon, Hader. -
Is it time to consider moving Hader
wntrtxn21 replied to brewers888's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
With your scenario the Brewers would perpetually be trading their best players long before their contracts are up to keep building their farm system with prospects who may never materialize. Then maybe trading some of the aquired prospects for MLB ready talent that isn't near what they let go. With teams that can't afford near unlimited budgets, they have to go for it when they have the chance. They can't keep trading their best players because they might get a better deal earlier in their contracts. -
Relief Pitching Options
wntrtxn21 replied to BrewCrewBlueDevil's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Thornburg has been beyond awful since coming off surgery. He's was horrendous in AAA too so the Red Sox are letting him go. No thanks, he's not worth even a minor lg. contract. -
Yes he can and he is. He didn't play in 2017, was horrendous in 2018, and even worse this year. At AAA this year; 10.1 IPs - 17 hits including 5 HRs - 9 BBs - 15 ERs - 3 WP. I agree he is low risk, but he is worse than even the slugs that CC has been getting from San Antonio. Rather than sign Thornburg and have him take a roster spot, I'd like to see them promote guys like Supak and D. Willliams to AAA to see what they can do against better competition.
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Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
wntrtxn21 replied to TexasCheesehead's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
How is 2 months of a 4.7 ERA starter worth those prospects? I know you have your ways of coming up with these calcs, that just seems like a crazy price to me. I'll also at baseball reference has him at 1 WAR this season so far, not sure how you project he'll post 1.7 WAR in less starts unless you're assuming he'll be way better in the 2nd half. I don't really like those deals either, giving up anything of real value for a rental, but the answer to the first question is simply that he's not a 4.7 ERA starter. He's at 3.88 for his career, and this year he has the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career while HR rate is only moderately up. His FB velocity is also the highest of his career. He's not helped by having one of the worst defenses in the league (30th by DRS, 28th by UZR) behind him, and I don't imagine that bullpen is doing him any favors either. So he's pitching a lot better than is reflected by his ERA. And as far as the Brewers go, him simply averaging 6.26 IP/start would do wonders for the bullpen even if it was at the current ERA. Which it likely won't be. He'd improve this rotation by a lot, no question about that. It's simply a matter of price. I think Wheeler's high ERA is partly due to the number of HRs (16) he's given up so far. He only allowed 14 HRs all of last year. He has had some problems pitching from the stretch. Still he's a 2 month rental. It would really depend on what the Mets would take to deal him. -
You are blind. Lucroy is moving away from the plate which gives Marisnick that much more of a clear path than he already had and instead of taking it he decides to change his path and truck Lucroy. It's a completely dirty play. http://freegifmaker.me/video/15626065131942086.gif The gif proves my point. Watch his feet. He's not sure where to go. He goes one way then changes direction and goes the other and is stumbling in the process. If he goes to the back of the plate he's out easily because that's where the tag is going to be. If he goes to the front side and he could possibly slide around him and away from the tag. And if he was going in with the intent to run him over he's going to try and protect himself, not extend his arms forward like he's starting a head first slide. And I can't believe he will be suspended because he wasn't ejected. The play was reviewed and ejections can come from replay now. If the umps didn't feel the need to eject him on replay I can't imagine the league will suspend him. Nor should they. No matter how you try to sping this, you are dead wrong. Marisnick had a clear path to the outer part of the plate. He was running to the inside of the baseline and knew that's exactly where catchers are now taught to be. He intentionally ran over Lucroy and then try to come up with an extremely lame excuse. Just because the umpires didn't throw him out (they should have ejected him on the spot) doesn't mean he shouldn't be suspended. They called him out for the dirty play. There is no excuse for Marisnick's intentional act. He should be suspended for the exact amount of time Lucroy misses. It won't happen, but that punishment would fit the dirty, intientional act.
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OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
wntrtxn21 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Why would you want Freitas over Pina. He would only play once a week since Thames and Aguilar are hitting well now and no need to play Grandal at 1B. Freitas MLB numbers: .214/.270 and Pina is the superior defensive catcher. Pina is doing a good job as the once-a-week-backup. Williams only has 48 IPs at AA. He hasn't seen AAA yet. Way too early to call him up and possibly screw with his confidence. At least see what he could do in San Antonio. Look at the Brewers' pitcher of the year last year Brown. Did great at AA and is getting killed at San Antonio. -
I've seen every inning of every game this year and never once have I said to myself that Hiura was swinging for the fence. Thames will do it occasionally if the pitch he's looking for is there otherwise both of those guys have hard, controlled swings. Not to mention, Thames K's a lot to begin with and Hiura is like he was starting AAA with a high K rate as he's still adjusting. Just because they K with runners in scoring position doesn't mean they're swinging for the fence. Also, "putting the ball in play" is little league mentality. An infield pop up, routine grounder at a corner IF (or anywhere if they're playing in across the board), shallow fly ball, etc don't drive in runs. This notion that all someone has to do is "put the ball in play" and runs are automatically scored is a fallacy. There are many times where a routine grounder scores a runner from third if the INF. is conceding the run to get an out. Putting a ball in play with the INF drawn in may find a hole and score a run. If the hitter can go to the right side with a runner on 2B with no outs, that routine grounder puts a runner at 3B. How often have "shallow fly balls" fallen in for hits, especially at big ball parks? If a team is playing the no-doubles defense those shallow fly balls become hits and baserunners. It's not "all he has to do is put the ball in play". It's put the ball in play rather than strikeout, especially with RISP. Putting a ball in play rather than whiff may result in a hit or any one of 9 players' errors. The only negative is a possible DP.
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Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
wntrtxn21 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Shave off that growth. -
What makes you believe he will be a "no bat"? He has hit very well in AAA. Last year .343/.348 - 922 OPS before he got hurt. This year .307/.343 - 855 OPS. There is every indication he will do well in the big leagues. In any case, he can't do any worse than Saladino's done since being called up. Saladino is 2 for 28 with 13 Ks. Dubon doesn't play the corner OF spots, but can play 3 Inf. positions well.
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Is it time to move Junior Guerra to lost cause, mop-up duty only? Since May28 he has been horrible. 18.1 IPs - 23 hits - 15 ERs. Today the Brewers tie the game, Guerra comes in, pitches 1/3 of an inning and leaves down by 3. The pen is an absolute mess right now and Guerra has been a major contributor to that mess.
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Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
wntrtxn21 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I’m starting this off by saying I’m probably more bullish on our minor league system than most, so with that said. A bat(castellanos) or two(Walker) a couple of pen arms(Smith)(Diekman) a call-up or two(Grisham?Freitas?Devin Williams?Perdomo) all mixed together should get us to the playoffs > cheaply enough. Not going to give up that much to acquire those players because of the rental effect. And I would argue, we’d possibly be the second or third best team behind the(possibly best team since the 98 Yankees and top 10 team of all time dodgers), and maybe the Braves, Cubbies, but right there nonetheless. If we’re not gonna give up a lot of prospect capital, why not sign some rentals? A big problem with Castellanos is he's a butcher in LF. Anyone who has seen him flounder around in the OF knows he is a lot worse than his uzr indicates. If they sign him, Gamel has to go. If Cain sits then Yellich plays CF and you have two terrible defenders in LF (Braun) and Castellanos in RF. Plus is he worth what it would cost in prospects just to be a part-time player? Walker would replace who? Diekman has allowed a lot of runs (19) and has 22 BBs in only 36 IPs. Lots of Ks, but also a lot of baserunners. Smith won't come cheap, but he would help more than the other 3 combined. -
Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
wntrtxn21 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
In Houser's starts his "devastating 4 pitch mix" has yielded: 11 IPs - 17 hits - 11 ERs including 3 HRs. If anything he is overrated. He is another Burnes; good stuff but can't keep the other team off the scoreboard. With Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and now Houser getting smoked, Gio hurt, Chacin and Anderson so unpredictable, CC has limited options. He has to throw somebody other than Davies and Woody out there to start games. Unlike the others, Houser did well in the bullpen and right now he could heip stabilize a pen that has become a mess. -
Relief Pitching Options
wntrtxn21 replied to BrewCrewBlueDevil's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Whose guide are you using to get a surplus value for Turang, Ashby, Dubon, and Supak. The highest value for Turang I can find is 16.6. -
Moving Arcia to 3B would give the Brewers the worst 3B in all MLB. He's a guy with an OBP below .300 and limited power. His only value is as a SS or utility type player.
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Plesac just babbles on and on and on. He doesn't know when to shut up.. Rock gives good insight to the small parts of the game that may be missed by the casual fan who hasn't played the game. MA loves Schroeder.
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Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
wntrtxn21 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Castellanos is a real butcher in the OF. Other than Kris Davis he might be the next worst OF in the game. Anything he contributed with the bat would be given away with his glove. He's basically a DH.Thames has been doing a pretty decent job at 1B the last 3-4 weeks. I don't think 1B is a position of real concern against RH pitching. LF-CF-SS seem to be the biggest problems going forward. -
Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
wntrtxn21 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
You're right about Cain and until he can get healthy, Gamel might be a better option. I don't like Hiura at the leadoff because he Ks too much. Right now he's at 35% K rate. I'd rather see Grandal in an RBI spot so right now CC has little to choose from at the leadoff spot. -
Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
wntrtxn21 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I don't think Stearns is looking at guys who have good splits vs NLC teams. That's not a great way to build a team. You're going to have either a limited group of candidates with decent sample sizes or you're going to have small sample sizes you're going off of. As for the question, I have no clue what they need. I'd give it another 2 weeks because as of right now this whole team looks bad. Though that happens when a team is struggling. 2-3 bats needed. 2 pen arms needed. Maybe some of the bats and arms can come internally(Dubon,Grisham,Freitas,Devon Williams,Perdomo). Cain’s lack of production needs replaced, Arcia’s lack of production too. Pina another and obviously Aguilar. Then the 2 pen arms to replace a hopefully traded Hader, but if he’s stil here, then Burnes can start the month of August in AAA, then recalled for the rotation or pen. This terrible slump has magnified the lack of tolerable plate approaches on this team, and some young,and, or fresh bats are needed. I think the two biggest needs are a leadoff hitter and a SS who can get on base. Cain's thumb is a huge problem and has limited his effectiveness. Right now he is hurting the team. Arcia's OBP is .296 and needs to improve. He's forgotten how to hit to RF and is taking the big HR swing every time up. I'm fine with Pina as a backup catcher. His avg. isn't going to be great because he plays once a week. Aguilar shoud be DFA'd. He's a worthless bat on the bench. Dubon should come up for Saladino. Saladino is 1-19 with an astounding 10 Ks. Dubon couldn't do much worse at SS. -
I believe DEVON Williams to be an option at some point past his futures game this Sunday. Having a great year, and has high leverage stuff, FB 95-98, good breaking ball. Devin Williams went from a starter in 2018 to a reliever this year. So far the switch has been a huge success. Big K numbers at AA. I'd like to see him moved up to San Antonio to see how his stuff plays out there.
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Brewers sign Drew Smyly to a minor league contract
wntrtxn21 replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
All I know is that I will be Smylying if he can return to his good numbers. Maybe he could rebound and take Anderson's spot. Anderson just allowed another HR, his 10th in only 58 IPs and the 9th time in 11 starts that he has been taken deep. After allowing 30 dingers last year, Anderson could easily be replaced. -
Brewers sign Drew Smyly to a minor league contract
wntrtxn21 replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
See the Rangers also cut Shelby Miller loose, I wouldn't mind the same kind of deal for him. I thought Miller was going to be stud. Miller has been as bad as you could get for the past 4 years. He hasn't thrown many innings the last two years, but what he threw was awful. I don't know if Stearns would even want to waste a spot at AAA with Miller.

