brewerfan82

Anyone looking for a quick and dirty way to rank players going into their draft, I've created a new site that you can check out: http://www.rotoprojos.com/ It uses a formula I've used the past several years while prepping for my own drafts, mainly using standard deviations above the mean in whichever categories you choose, to develop a custom ranking of players. I decided this year that I might as well drop it into a website as a tool for other people to use. I'd love any feedback anyone has on it. I plan on building the site out a bit in the next few weeks, adding more description as to where the projections come from and how the ranking works, as well as some articles on fantasy baseball strategy as I feel inclined. Hope it proves to be a helpful tool for others!

You do realize he's not talking about improving the team for the rest of what he already stated would have been a lost season... right? About 12 years of cost controlled elite prospects seems like a huge positive in that scenario.

??? Above average production on a moderate salary is truly horrid?

Love it. MUCH cheaper than I expected. He might drive you nuts, but he gets results, provides an intensity/charisma in the closer role we didn't have, knocks everyone else in the bullpen down into a more comfortable spot, and is inexpensive enough to cut if his luck catches up with him. We also have the benefit of knowing he hasn't seemed to be a clubhouse issue with this team. I would have been disappointed heading into the season relying on Broxton as the closer, but love him in the setup role and Papelbon was going to be a much riskier acquisition in terms of money, prospects and attitude (again, I know KRod has his issues, but at least we're familiar with how they mesh with this organization). We just added depth in every bullpen spot for $3mil by bumping every pitcher down one spot. Can't complain about that.

Agreed! Haha. I'm guessing you meant 4-5 million?

I don't see the need to flip Nelson in the case of a Shields signing. The offense seems pretty well set right now. They were 5th in the NL in runs and OPS last year with basically the same lineup other than the improved 1B situation (and hopefully improved production from SS, RF and a full year of Parra instead of Schafer coming off the bench). And adding Shields would solidify the rotation and allow Fiers and Nelson to battle it out for the 5th spot with the other adding needed protection at AAA. Not to mention, we'll likely need Nelson in a year when Lohse is gone.

Pete, just curious who you're hoping the closer is this year? Yes, there are indicators that suggest Papelbon's results could regress to that of an average reliever soon, but he's been an incredibly effective and reliable reliever every year of his career to this point. It seems to me that all the alternatives have already proven to be more inconsistent and/or mediocre in their results than Papelbon has ever been. You seem to be favoring already knowing a closer will be average over the possibility that Papelbon will become average. I guess I just find it hard to believe that Papelbon's downside is greater than anyone else's on the Brewers' radar, while his history shows he'd be a solid upgrade. I think there's no question adding Papelbon would solidify this bullpen from top to bottom. There's some question as to whether the money/prospects are worth it, but I'll reserve judgement on that until we know what that actually is.

I think James Shields would be opposed to it.

The only problem with this argument is that the major league average was 35.5% of base runners scoring last year. So he actually held runners better than average. Is that the number for relief pitchers? The number for relief pitchers was 33.9%

The only problem with this argument is that the major league average was 35.5% of base runners scoring last year. So he actually held runners better than average.

Pretty sure Boston's set at 3B right now

Think Middlebrooks could play/platoon at first? He might be a nice add as a limited time platoon player this year with a chance to take over third if he bounces back. Middlebrooks, Betts (to platoon at 2B and help in the OF), and a prospect could be nice little package to strengthen the bench this year and provide some options/depth going forward.

Using this as a baseline: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-free-agent-predictions/ For about $50m more we could theoretically add SP James Shields ($19m), SS Hanley Ramirez ($19m), LHP Andrew Miller ($8.5m), and 1B/3B Mark Reynolds ($3.5). SP Shields, SP Gallardo, SP Lohse, SP Garza, SP Peralta, CL Broxton, RP Miller, RP Smith, RP Thornburg, RP Henderson, RP Jeffress, RP Kintzler, C Lucroy, 1B Lind, 2B Gennett, 3B A Ramirez, SS H Ramirez, LF Davis, CF Gomez, RF Braun, BN Maldonado, BN Reynolds, BN Segura, BN Parra, BN Schafer Money helps. I'd take that.

Sounds good. Move Braun to first. Trade Khris Davis for A-Rod. Sign Nelson Cruz and Melky Cabrera to fill the corners. Offense fixed!

I guess I just don't have the faith that enough of that return (plus the Lawries, Cains, Escobars, etc.) would hit to make up for not having Fielder (95 R, 38 HR, 120 RBI, .299/.415/.566/.981), Greinke (16-6, 3.83, 1.20, 201 K), and Marcum (13-7, 3.54, 1.16, 158 K) that season. I would assume if they thought they could get that kind of return with any sort of certainty they would have done it. That said, it definitely would have left us with more talent in the system going forward (although you could argue Segura's the best of what we would have ended up with anyways). However, my belief remains that at some point you need to decide your current base is good enough to go with proven talent for awhile and try to make a playoff push. At the time our base group was at that level. If we had traded away pieces we would have been gambling away our chances both then and in the future that we would have talent at the major league level that could succeed. When you don't have the talent at the major league level to succeed (questionably now, but I think we're still a year or two from re-hauling, as I'd take a chance with this team still), that's when you trade your players for a chance down the road. I haven't been disappointed with the results of the current regime so far and until I am I don't have reason to believe they won't shift the direction of the team when they need to. If the team shows they can't compete in the first half of the season, maybe they trade ARam, Gallardo, Lohse, etc. and all of a sudden the future doesn't look so bleak. It's all about the timing and what you're gambling away when you make the move. It's all balancing proven commodities (and how valuable that is for the current status of the major league team) with uncertain potential.

First off, the past two seasons they've been 157-167, 19th in MLB, 9th in NL. Not good, but not what I would call "horrible". There's definitely a debate of whether or not the team should be going for it or not currently, as you could definitely expect a down swing to begin with the departure of Fielder, and that's the expected result of the "go for it" in waves approach. However, the suggestion of trading Fielder with 2-3 years left on his contract would have placed them directly in the most "upswing" time in recent Brewer history. I can't blame them for holding onto him when they thought they had the best chance to make the playoffs. Trading him then would have probably insured we didn't make the playoffs and we'd be waiting for the haul we got for him to make the majors before we had another chance of going for it.

Ha, "horrible" is a stretch, I'll take the past few years over what we endured in the 90's/early 2000's. I guess it's a difference in opinion. I think constantly trading name players for long-term success, under all circumstances, is a recipe for being just above mediocrity when you don't have the finances to replace them. However, if you can stock pile young, cheap talent in waves that allow you to then add/keep big pieces on the up swing of those waves to get you over the top, you have a much more realistic chance of occasional success. I think that's just a more realistic model for low-to-mid market teams. Then again, maybe I just see anything that doesn't lead to 20 years of ineptitude as a positive strategy now, lol. I'll take the smaller swings in success if I get to see Brewer playoff games more frequently that way.

I think you have to consider that the Brewers had a group of highly touted prospects reaching their primes at that time as well though. The timing was right to make a playoff push in those years and you don't do that by trading away one of your key pieces for minor leaguers, especially when you're a team that doesn't have the finances/appeal to fill that hole through free agency. I agree that under different circumstances (ie. no realistic shot at the playoffs for the duration of his contract), trading Fielder for prospects that could create a situation in the future "to go for it" would make sense. But they were already in position "to go for it". It's hard to continually trade for the future and ever get there.

Here are the three year splits of those involved: [pre]Mark Reynolds - R (30) AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS vs. Left 409 19 .220 .331 .411 .742 vs. Right 1027 62 .221 .317 .449 .766 Juan Francisco - L (26) vs. Left 83 0 .169 .205 .217 .422 vs. Right 550 30 .244 .302 .462 .764 Lyle Overbay - L (37) vs. Left 238 3 .214 .265 .315 .580 vs. Right 717 22 .248 .319 .402 .721 Justin Smoak - B (27) vs. Left 443 13 .226 .300 .357 .657 vs. Right 921 41 .231 .322 .406 .728 Ike Davis - L (26) vs. Left 279 9 .165 .225 .287 .512 vs. Right 686 39 .257 .361 .490 .851 and... Corey Hart - R (31) vs. Left 233 14 .309 .391 .575 .966 vs. Right 821 42 .268 .330 .490 .820 Doh! However on the brightside, it shouldn't be hard to improve from last year: 2013 Brewer 1B 587 21 .206 .259 .370 .629 2013 Brewer PH 238 4 .210 .273 .294 .567 That seems impossibly bad...[/pre]

Just to throw out some key stats: Brewer first basemen were last in the majors with a .206/.259/.370/.629 line last year. As a team, the Brewers were first in the National League with a .267/.316/.420/.736 line against lefties in 1389 ABs. Meanwhile they were 10th in the National League against righties with a .247/.309/.390/.699 line in 4085 ABs. Ike Davis has career lines of .256/.356/.471/.827 against righties and .204/.268/.334/.602 against lefties. I think people are over-emphasizing his troubles against left handers. Last year, the Brewers were SIGNIFICANTLY worse against right handers, whom they face THREE times as often as left handers. Ike is a much needed left-handed bat, entering his age 27 season that addresses an area of need in the offense. To dismiss him because he hits poorly (but about as good as our first basemen did overall last season) against pitchers he'll be facing 1/4th of the time seems silly. Especially since the rest of the team dominates against that same quarter of competition. Obviously, you never want to overpay for a player, but I think he's a good gamble and an obvious upgrade to our team at this point. I'd be thrilled if we can get him for Fiers and content if it's for someone that's slightly harder to stomach.

All kidding aside, is there ANY way we could swing a deal with the Yanks for Gardner? They just turned down a deal for Phillips, so I don't really see them okaying a Weeks deal unless they like his shorter contract and get a bigger piece along with him. They could use Ramirez or Lohse, but we'd need another piece back then I would thinks.

Package him with Juan Francisco for Giancarlo Stanton and move Braun to first. Done.

I think getting a nice LH bat for the bench would be almost necessary if we resign Hart. I know he's old, hasn't been rumored for the Brewers and is probably best suited for an AL team at this point, but after perusing the free agent list, I kind of like the idea of trying to get Raul Ibanez as a power hitting LH off the bench. He could provide days off for Davis in left and Hart at first and provide insurance in case Davis doesn't pan out. With that said, I don't see this happening, lol.

Best reaction of the day

Looking at http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/transactions/free-agents, the following seem like Kotsay-esque-role-fillers, albeit I'm not sure who is willing/able to play this year at this point: Grady Sizemore (trying to comeback after the break and may never be the guy he used to be, but I'd still take a chance on him in a backup/filler role) Andruw Jones Carlos Lee Bobby Abreu (although his notes say he's taking '13 off) Johnny Damon