JonnyLungs
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Everything posted by JonnyLungs
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I get it...I just don't like it (Parra v. Capuano)
JonnyLungs replied to bjkrautk's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm fine with Parra continuing to start this year, but inevitably I feel he's a bullpen guy. -
Maybe I'm overly pessimistic but I'd expect maybe one or two of those players to become above average starters. Some will end up being no better than Chris Narveson, some will get hurt, some will end up wishing they had Chris Narveson's career and others will end up as relievers with varying degrees of success. Just the nature of pitching prospects. In fact the only three that get me excited on that list as starters are Peralta, Odorizzi and Heckathorn. Naturally they are at the two lowest levels. You can never have enough pitching prospects. Just because things might look good in the lower levels of the minors doesn't mean that most of those prospects will end up being more than a hill of beans.
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Luck fluctuates, but so does talent. Teams can't invest three years of patience from the fans by trotting the same collection of talent out there to get an accurate sample size. That's where scouting comes in. Projections are nice but it takes a keen eye to see when a player is about to decline. I know you can project declines based on age and injury history, etc. but all that gives us is what an average guy will do based on the mitigating factors. I'm not saying fundamental changes need to be made to the team at this point, and we can point to performances like Davis' and Hoffman as reasons for under performing, but where is the next under performance going to come from? Will we be back in the same spot next year when player X or player Y suddenly don't perform to expectations and should we simply throw our hands up and say we were unlucky again? Don't get me wrong, I understand small samples and luck but there is going to come a time where luck simply can't be used as an all encompassing crutch to explain performances that don't mean expectations. Maybe they shouldn't put a team projected to win 81 games out there and hope for good luck.
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Buenavista de Cuellar in Guerrero. I'll echo the food thing too. My rural Wisconsin neighborhood is populated by the Latinos that work on the dairy farms (my own included) and they have some of the best parties around in terms of food. My host mother in Mexico was also a tremendous cook.
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I'll echo the usefulness of immersion. My high school Spanish teacher once scheduled a meeting with me when she found out I wasn't taking a fourth year of Spanish. I was pretty good at it and was picking it up pretty quick. Being pretty lazy in high school, I decided to take some slack off class instead. Besides, when was I ever going to use Spanish? Fast forward to today and most of the people that work for me only speak Spanish. I decided in college that instead of getting back into classroom Spanish that I'd go on an immersion tour. I had two weeks of intensive classroom Spanish where the instructors either didn't know English or pretended not to know English. I lived with a Mexican family during my stay there also. It all came back really quickly after not using it for five years. Now that I work with Spanish speakers every day, I'm not fluent but I'm good enough to get my point across in most cases. My biggest problem is regional dialect problems as my employees are split between Mexicans and Nicaraguans. I learned Mexican Spanish and my Mexican employees even agree with me that the Nicaraguans are hard to understand. A Central American drawl perhaps?
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I'm torn on Jeffress. His stint as a reliever shows how dominant of a reliever he projects to be yet I think it's a bit early to give up on him as a starter. Honestly, I've heard the word closer associated with Jeffress since I can remember (going back to 2008 BA Prospect book at least). My gut tells me that Jeffress ends up in the bullpen anyway. But I'd like to see him stretched out once more to give it another run as a starter. Even if he ends up in the bullpen, a late inning trio of Jeffress, Braddock and Axford would be a force to be reckoned with. Being a fine reliever would be nothing for Jeffress to hang his head about after the adversity he's gone through and I'm pulling hard for him.
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But we are losing out on the opportunity to find a guy that might be able to help us in the future. When a guy clearly has no future with the team and is this bad, what is the point? A guy like Kameron Loe might not be any better than Suppan but why not find out?
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If we dump Suppan, we lose very valuable depth that this team has worked hard to acquire in the pitching department.
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Smith may end up being a short term fix but I'm not sure if he is much of a long term solution given his 17 home runs allowed in 64 career ML innings. His 4.11 ERA was fortunate if you ask me (without looking at any advanced metrics). He may be better than some of what we've currently got (and I realize that is the topic at hand here) but if we are ever going to build a decent bullpen, Chris Smith needs to be behind a wall of glass labeled 'Break In Case of Emergency' instead of being a key cog.
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Slumps....who will break out first?
JonnyLungs replied to Buckylovesbeer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Jody Gerut will hit a big pinch hit bomb and start digging out of that hole. -
I don't think it is so much that a guy hides an injury. But an injury that takes a little out of you might not be all that noticeable until their performance suffers.
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I predict Vargas will hit the DL soon with Braddock hopefully replacing him. Sitting by some scouts out in AZ, his velocity was down (mid to upper 80's). Now if Vargas comes out throwing harder, I'll retract my statement.
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Fielder saves Suppan from possibly giving up 4 in the first. They are hitting the ball hard on Soup.
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I'd rather see Kameron Loe or Marco Estrada given a shot before Jeff Suppan.
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What's bugging me is that I couldn't get off the ground in Madison today and won't be able to get to Phoenix until tomorrow.
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Heading out there tomorrow.
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Field Diamond Box vs. Field Infield Box?
JonnyLungs replied to OldSchoolSnapper's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'll offset the extra cost of a Diamond Box seat by not drinking as much beer. I don't like to have a cloudy brain when I'm sitting in those seats anyway. -
I worked for Curt one summer. That guy is something else. One of the 'tame' stories I can tell about him is when I was walking in the Mueller parking lot and I saw a BMW flying straight at me at about 90 MPH (in a parking lot mind you) and right before he was about to hit me he peeled off and pulled back around and rolled down his window and started laughing hysterically before peeling off again. I personally find him to be quite funny, others maybe not so much http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Reds sign Aroldis Chapman, 5 years $30 million
JonnyLungs replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
$25 million over 5 years apparently with payment spread over 10 years. The risk is obvious but I feel it's a pretty good chance to take. The upside would make this an absolute steal. Worst case scenario, you still probably have an overpriced reliever. Upside is absolutely ridiculous. Spreading the cost over ten years makes this deal look a lot better. Chapman details -
Four wheel drive doesn't help you stop any better. I think many people fail to make this connection.
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Jack Z deserves plenty of praise for his integration of statistical analysis but let's not forget that his background is as a scouting director. I'm pretty sure he goes about things in the right way utilizing as much information as he possibly can, whether it be the eyes of scouts or the numbers of his statistical department. As for defensive metrics and Doug Melvin's opinion on them, I didn't hear exactly what he said about them but relying completely on defensive metrics wouldn't seem to be the best course of action. Sample sizes, disagreements between metrics and such don't make it even close to a perfect science. They should most certainly be considered but I'd still put a lot of stock in a scout's eyes when it comes to defense. More so than hitting or pitching.
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Because I like to twist what people say into saying something that they're not saying. In all seriousness, I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm likely misinterpreting something when you say "for(e)front of sabermetric research" as I haven't seen/heard anything that this guy has done therefore he must not be doing much. If so, mea culpa. Earlier in the post you questioned the quality of the analysis when you really have no basis to question it because you haven't seen any of it or the nuts and bolts behind it. Question Melvin's use of it, no doubt. And before you bring up the whole Kendall batting ninth being worth 20 more runs thing as being proof of low quality analysis, how can you really make that judgment without seeing the analysis yourself? I guess my point is that there is no way for us to really know a whole lot about the quality of analysis if we can't really be sure how much weight Doug puts in said analysis, and I'm sure you'd agree with me on that. To think that there is no disagreement in player evaluation between the powers that be would be foolish. I won't sit here and judge the inner workings of the Brewers' front office when I have no idea what is going on in there. But what we can judge is the eventual decisions they make collectively. I just have a problem evaluating the process of a decision when the only real information we have are the soundbytes that are given to the media which likely barely scratch the surface of what is all involved.
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If he's been working for Melvin since his Texas days, wouldn't it be impossible to be at the forefront of public sabermetric research? Wouldn't all his research be proprietary information?
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Any chance of stopping the constant comparisons to Suppan?
JonnyLungs replied to BREWCREW5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Take this for what it's worth, but a friend of mine ran into Sheets during last year's free agency period in New Orleans and he was not all that enthused with the Brewers. Granted, this was all before he was set to sign with Texas and he flunked his physical, but I'm pretty sure it was a matter of Ben just wanting to move on. -
Any chance of stopping the constant comparisons to Suppan?
JonnyLungs replied to BREWCREW5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I really don't understand calling Randy Wolf "mediocre". What is the definition of mediocre? I've always understood mediocre to be average to below average. I look at Wolf's numbers over the years and I see average to above average. Maybe I just have a different definition of mediocre.