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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    It hasn't been brought up but the 2 others are strong pieces as well. Payamps had a 3.23 ERA in the bigs with Oak/KC was worth 1.1 WAR in 55 innings. 95 fb, 82 sl, 89 ch Yeager had a 3.1 Era in A+,AA. With 81 ks in 52 innings (32 bb). I can't find a scouting report but a youtube video had him throwing 97 of a mound and 104 with a running start into a screen, nice looking breaking pitch as well. Amazing
  2. jay87shot
    This is beyond my wildest dreams. Not only do we get Contresras but 2 more pieces as well. Hot damn.
  3. jay87shot
    I am sure we will see all different kinds of things to shift while still playing within the new rules. I just think that a guy like Rowdy benefits from say 5-10 balls he hit to the left side and lost maybe 10-15 balls he hit hard to the right (guess-timating). Those 5 extra hits are like .10 BA, he can easily make a few small approach changes and get back to the .270 or so he hit with us in 21.
  4. jay87shot
    Forgot about Toro, if we can ekkk out a little of what he has been in AAA the is surely a Jace Peterson in there
  5. jay87shot
    Don't forget we also got Trevor Richards in this deal, whom we traded for Rowdy like a month later. If you look at it as Willy and like 3/4 Rowdy (gave up Bowden Francis as well), it becomes more of a win in my mind. I think health will truly end up deciding this trade, if Rasmussen/JP can stay healthy (I think JP just had a shoulder surgery) the Rays can win. If not Willy's value alone is a plus for us. For now I say win/win.
  6. jay87shot
    Maybe Matt McClain and a smaller piece for Ruiz, McClain isn't my favorite prospect but it would work. I like Encarnacion-Strand as well maybe if the move a prospect to 3B CES could be an option and give us a powerhitting CI. What about McClain and CES for Ruiz and Small. We get 2 bats for a mostly blocked OF and Small. Reds move IF for a high end OF who can start today and a 5th pitcher with some upside.
  7. jay87shot
    I wouldnt mind Noelvi Marte and would probably stay away from Arroyo. Mitchell/Ruiz and a 2nd prospect for Marte would work for me. I would guess that the Reds would demand Weimer or Frelich, which might work depending on secondary parts. Ruiz and Black (or a1chose of P) for Marte Mitchell and Hendry Mendez for Marte Weimer and Carlos Rodriguez (of) for Marte Frelich for Marte straight up.
  8. jay87shot
    I think Rowdy, Yeli, and Winker will benefit a bit but I am not thinking it will be a huge benefit. Yeli might beat out a couple more IF singles and Winker/Tellez may get a regular 1B back that the deep 2B caught. Overall I would say maybe 10 to 20 batting points. Yeli still needs to lift the ball a bit better and not miss so many "meat" pitches. I feel like Rowdy tried to play hero ball to much and hit a ton of warning track balls he could have just as easy laced for a 1B or 2B. No guesses on Winker.
  9. jay87shot
    I think McCann would be a last resort type guy, if we trade for him the Mets would have to eat basically all of his salary. I have always liked McCann, however he won't be much of an upgrade from Narvaez last year even if he rebounds more to the Tigers version than the CWS version. I would prefer Zunino or Tucker Barnhart as last resort type catchers as well.
  10. jay87shot
    Renfroe is nowhere near a 9 figure guy. Nimmo had a 5 WAR year and has a career 131 ops+, Renfroe is a perennial 2-3 WAR player with a career 111 ops+. Renfroe will get around the 3 year contract Mitch Haniger got.
  11. jay87shot
    I can't see us after an OF, like mentioned before Varsho would be interesting as a part time cather and Wisconsin guy but I can't see anything working out.
  12. jay87shot
    I can't see us after an OF, like mentioned before Varsho would be interesting as a part time cather and Wisconsin guy but I can't see anything working out.
  13. jay87shot
    Gary Sanchez wouldn't be the worst especially with our defensive team helping him, I wouldn't give him a second guaranteed year though. I'd go like 1/6 or 7 with a 2nd option and as small of buyout as possible. I saw somewhere (can't remember the source sorry) that the A's wanted Nootbaar, Donovan, and Gordon Graffeco for Murphy. That would seem to be simlar to maybe Turang, Ashby, and between Taylor/Ruiz value for us, so I am probably writing Murphy out of my options at C. I think Korey Lee or Yainer Diaz could be interesting options if Houston signs or trade for a catcher. Both are young controllable high potential catchers who could be had for what I would guess is a reasonable price. The Astros could also use OF help, making this a perfect swap scenerio. Say Ruiz for Diaz straight up or maybe Mitchell for Lee and a young reliever/decent pitching prospect.
  14. jay87shot
    Gary Sanchez wouldn't be the worst especially with our defensive team helping him, I wouldn't give him a second guaranteed year though. I'd go like 1/6 or 7 with a 2nd option and as small of buyout as possible. I saw somewhere (can't remember the source sorry) that the A's wanted Nootbaar, Donovan, and Gordon Graffeco for Murphy. That would seem to be simlar to maybe Turang, Ashby, and between Taylor/Ruiz value for us, so I am probably writing Murphy out of my options at C. I think Korey Lee or Yainer Diaz could be interesting options if Houston signs or trade for a catcher. Both are young controllable high potential catchers who could be had for what I would guess is a reasonable price. The Astros could also use OF help, making this a perfect swap scenerio. Say Ruiz for Diaz straight up or maybe Mitchell for Lee and a young reliever/decent pitching prospect.
  15. jay87shot
    The point is that if we trade Taylor we aren't getting anything near a top 100 prospect. Taylor has some value and Weimer could flame out (or be a 5 WAR a year guy...hopefully). I would guess we would get about the same value for Taylor that we did Renfroe. What does 94.6% accurate mean, 5.4% could be big gap depending on the data used to define value(sorry I haven't read the article if it spells it out).
  16. jay87shot
    I think if there were trades available that we could get a more contollable youmg player with mlb success (like William Contreras, Alejandro Kirk) and prospects that our fo would explore that. My guess is that we explored those deals and the other teams wouldn't give up those guys with high end prospects or really low balled us. I would still be fine with trading one of those but my guess is that the interesting packages aren't there now. Maybe as the top free agents sign and teams who missed out get worried those will develop.
  17. jay87shot
    Good they adjusted Woody but I think that proves my point, a guy who hasn't pitched in like 3 months moved 12 points overnight. That's like the value of Joey Weimer, if the site can be behind that much a players value, trades that are 10-20 points different can be valid proposals or complete trash. People who reference btv make it so trades have to be within a couple points and then knock trade more than 5 apart, when a fair trade has a much wider range. Also take Yeli, he has 6/156 (not counting an option or buyouts) left, if he averages 2 WAR (2 is fair I feel) in those 6 years (12 WAR x 8 mill) he has a 96 million value. That is a -60 value, BTV has him at -112 which is a average yearly WAR of like 1, which is way off. The difference between them and me is the value of Woody-ish.
  18. jay87shot
    Agreed, assuming health and decent play Burnes, Willy, Woody, Lauer, Rowdy, etc should all have pretty much the same trade value just a few less interested teams. However there will likely be a couple teams that are more desperate. If we are playing well great, we can still get a decent return on one year for a few guys.
  19. jay87shot
    Good rule 5 draft, didn't lose Devanney and get to look at a high potential arm. Odds are we lose him and who really cares but maybe he pans out.
  20. jay87shot
    Can we please stop using or citing baseball trade values that site is so trash on prospects. For big leaguer for big leaguer trades ok, it has some mathematical value but is still flawed on a recency bias (see value of Woody vs. Burnes) Here is my reasoning, in separate trades we could get. Burnes for Cartaya, Miller, Pepiot. If you look at the Castillo to the Mariners trade this is a little better because you get Pepiot instead of 2 mid level prospects but Burnes is better and has an extra half year control. That leaves Adames for Lux (or prospect swap), Bruns, Nastrini Adames has at least those 2 prospects value over Lux even with Lux's control. No need to add Ruiz and Black.
  21. jay87shot
    But what if certain teams are banging on cans for offspeed or lighting up scoreboards to signal hitters or using sticky stuff to add spin. If mlb sends everyone the same ball it is the same. The differences in a team pitching in 80 degree humid weather in Milwaukee one week to 100 degree dry weather in Arizona aren't so great that all of sudden a guy can't throw strikes. The ball doesn't matter if it's the same and teams aren't allowed to alter it when it is recieved.
  22. jay87shot
    I like Arraez a bunch but agree that I wouldn't give up top end talent for him. I wouldn't do much more than Lauer and non top 10 prospect for him and the Twins will get much more than that. I am guessing he would go to 3rd if we did deal for him.
  23. jay87shot
    I hate to be direct but who cares. The balls aren't that different they are talking about minuet differences. Each team gets to rub there balls with dirt (or a similar substance) so you shouldn't complain about then being slick. MLB just stick with on ball that is made the same every year and acknowledge that the ball will be slightly different based on climate. Ship out the balls needed only a week or so in advance and have a secondary ball that has the same specs but different design but is used for practice.
  24. jay87shot
    Jameson Tallion (4/68) and Taijuan Walker (4/72) just got huge deals. Both are iffy 3's solid 4's, does this sky rocket a pitcher like Eric Lauer's value. Essentially both of those guys are the same pitcher as Lauer 93-95 with a 5 pitch mix, Walker was a little better this year, but the arguement could be made that Lauer has been better than both. I understand Lauer's FIP and other advanced stats say he is worse than his base results, but combining the past 2 years look at the results. Lauer= 21/22 ERA=3.19 and 3.69 277.1 innnings 274 k's/100 bb 3.7 WAR (that's with Lauer not starting the first month or 2 in 21') Walker= 21/22 ERA= 4.47 and 3.49 316 innings 278 k/90 bb 3.1 WAR Tallion= 21/22 ERA= 4.30 and 3.91 321.2 innings 291 k/76 bb 3.5 WAR So Lauer's command is a little below but he is also 3/4 years younger and the other two have had serious arm injuries. If those guys are worth 17/18 million for 4 years and Lauer has 2/13 or so in arby shouldn't Lauer have an excess value of 20-25 or so million. That should get us a lot more than I was thinking, or are those two free agents just drastically overpaid.
  25. jay87shot
    If we were to push all in and trade all our prospects and max salary, our roster and resources would still be way below the likes of the big market teams. Look at the Rangers, the have spend more in free agency the past year in a month then we have in our entire franchise in free agency. (and I would guess it would would be multiple times). Say we trade 3/4 prospects for Reynolds and 3/4 for Murphy and sign a couple big name relievers. Our team looks better but still not up to a team like the Dodgers, heck we wouldn't look as good as the Angels on offense. By keeping a strong team that can be in the playoffs every year and then having a chance it keeps us from being the Pirates and risking a rebuild and it never working. If the Brewers went threw another 10+ year stretch like the 90's to early 2000's of garbage baseball a move out of Milwaukee could be possible,
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