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Everything posted by jay87shot
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This does make tons of sense, however there are a bunch of teams that need catching and not many catchers available. I'd say like 51% he goes to Cards. I wouldn't trade Frelick, maybe Weimer if there is nothing really attached. The A's would probably take 3 of our secondary prospect for him but my guess is that someone else would offer more. Say Weimer, Logan Henderson, and Eduardo Garcia or Tyler Black, Gasser, and Justin Jarvis. Probably similarly valued packages but someone will like offer a top 50 and 2 other pieces.
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jay87shot’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I agree the Burnes package is a bit light, maybe change the lotto prospect I proposed to someone like Kumar Rocker or Cole Winn? Basically I wanted to fill 3B and then C and improve our minors, I am sure you could swap that for a Mets, Blue Jays, or O's trade discussed elsewhere. -
jay87shot’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Agree, my scenario was under $120 million payroll by trading Hader then here trading Burnes, Tellez, Houser, and Urias we will have save around $35 million on top of 16 or so from Cutch and Wong. Honestly I was tempted to have us sign a better pitcher or another bat. If you are someone in favor of trading Renfroe (I am on the fence). That could be around $60 million the team has to play with from last years team. I don't think Clevinger will get more than 10. He has an ERA over 4 and his fastball and K are down from previously, I still like his chances at rebounding and I think he would be smart to come to our organization which has a good track record of leveling up our pitchers stuff. -
Trade Burnes to Texas for Josh Jung, Owen White, Luisangel Acuna, Mitch Garver, and a lotto prospect Trade Houser for 2 mid-level prospects Trade Rowdy and Urias to Miami for Tanner Scott and Sixto Sanchez Trade Taylor for a prospect Sign Mike Clevinger 1/7.5 +incentives Sign Jose Abreu 2/40 (3rd option) 1)Yeli 2)Frelich 3)Abreu 4)Adames 5) Renfroe 6)Mitchell 7)Jung 8)Garver 9)Turang Ashby and Sanchez piggyback to limit innings to start the year. Williams, Scott, Bush, and Box as 7/8/9, Gott, Topa, Perdomo, Strezlecki, and more fight for last 2 pen spots C: Garver ($3.5M) 1B: Jose Abreu ($20M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.7M) 3B: Josh Jung ($0.7M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M) LF: Sal Frelich ($0.7M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11M) DH: Yelich ($22M) 4th OF: Estuery Ruiz ($0.7M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Utility: Minor league deal vet ($1M) Backup C: Caratini ($2M) SP1: Mike Clevinger ($7.5M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M) SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1M) RP: Peter Strezlecki ($0.7M) RP: Luis Perdomo ($1.00M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Tanner Scott ($2M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M) RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M) RP: Box ($2.25M) RP: Sixto Sanchez ($1M) Payroll is 11.19% under budget
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clancyphile’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint
jay87shot replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
So we have basically the same team? Also I would guess that Woody and Adames would both be close or over 20 a year, especially any non-arby years. -
Brewcrew82’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint (For Real)
jay87shot replied to Brewcrew82's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I feel like that would be an overpay for Jansen, he is solid but I would give up a top 100 prospect and one of our higher potential pitching prospects for 2 years of a slightly above average catcher with a career .223 hitter. Treinen would be nice but I doubt we would give a guy who only pitched 5 innings 10 million a year to be a set-up (someone else will). -
The Sale trade is pretty good, Chris Archer could be close as well (I think he had 3 years and an option). Others of note could include Shelby Miller, Cole Hamels, Mike Clevinger,and maybe a Cliff Lee trade. Would anyone go for a deal like the Indians got from San Diego for Mike Clevenger where the Indians got like 6 prospects. 4 were pretty good players or prospects and 2 were decent. No top 50 talent but an overall deep package. Say the Yankees offered Austin Wells, Trey Sweeney, Clayton Beeter, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, and Brandon Lockridge for Burnes. That would be extremely tempting sans a can't miss prospect, however all 6 of those guys would have a chance to be valuable. I am sure it wouldn't be to hard to find more interesting offers as well.
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I would kind of like a option where we re-tool and can go for it potentially. I also like the Sean Murphy idea, I know his price was high at the deadline but I could see something working well, maybe even throwing in a couple of roster bubble type to the A's say Mitchell/Riuz, Small, and Keston. I would re-tool and in the process cut salary, leaving room for a trade deadline splash or two. That way we can shift a bunch of different ways depending on how well some young guys play.
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I wouldn't mind Abreu but I wouldn't go a 3rd year. He did have a WAR of 4.2 last year and with everyone having the DH and seemingly needing offense I would guess he gets a raise. I would say 2/38 with a team option and a 2 or 4 million dollar buyout, making it 2/40-42. He is still a decent 1st baseman which would add some extra value to us.. Also remember if we sign a guy like Abreu it would mean dropping 1 or more salaries, likely Renfroe. I seriously doubt our payroll goes up and losing Wong (potentially) and Cutch is offset by arby raises.
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Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
jay87shot replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
1)Regression from hitters Narvaez, Taylor, Cain, even Rowdy and Adames hit like 40 points lower than last year. 2)Starting pitching injuries Not only did this hurt the starting rotation but then it hurts the bullpen as the pen is needing to pitch more innings from shorter starts. 3)Pig-headed front office/manager towards the offense I am going to lump not trading for a bat at the deadline and refusing to alter the lineup together. One quality middle of the order bat probably would have been enough to get the playoffs and I hated that Adames and Rowdy hit 2/3 most of the year despite low average and obp. numbers. Counsil should have road a more hot hand approach with the top/middle of the order while try to find a consistent 2/3/4/5 bat(s). -
Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
jay87shot replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
1)Regression from hitters Narvaez, Taylor, Cain, even Rowdy and Adames hit like 40 points lower than last year. 2)Starting pitching injuries Not only did this hurt the starting rotation but then it hurts the bullpen as the pen is needing to pitch more innings from shorter starts. 3)Pig-headed front office/manager towards the offense I am going to lump not trading for a bat at the deadline and refusing to alter the lineup together. One quality middle of the order bat probably would have been enough to get the playoffs and I hated that Adames and Rowdy hit 2/3 most of the year despite low average and obp. numbers. Counsil should have road a more hot hand approach with the top/middle of the order while try to find a consistent 2/3/4/5 bat(s). -
Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I looked up some bad ones. Jake Arrieta to the Cubs was really bad James Shields for Tatis Jr. was bad until this year Chris Archer to the Pirates was really bad but Meadows, Baz, and Glasnow have had injury issues. Ryan Ludwig for Kluber and others was awful Us getting Yeli was really bad for a while, maybe not anymore. Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips is probably worse -
Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Again I doubt we take on money. I wouldn't mind trying to get rid of a bunch of seemingly excess pieces for him. Tyrone Taylor, Gustave, and Hedbert Perez or Houser and 18 yo lotto ticket type prospect or 2. I wouldn't give up a high end prospect for him, but he will have a lot of value based on how many teams need a solid catcher. -
Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
That's like adding 80+ million to the payroll. From what I can guess, Mark A. and Stearns have been telling everyone that we were a decent amount over budget this year. Add in a bunch of arby raises and that the attendance was down 10-15% and would guess we will need to shave payroll down some more than expand it. Granted I would love all those guys expect Robertson and Swanson. -
Yeah that's a great point on opposing view points. One guy likes young pojectablity vs. someone prefering stats and current tools. Also it is hard to gauge all these guys watching some highlight clips and reading what scouting reports from where and whomever we can.
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I am not saying Devanney doesn't have potential, just as a 25 year old I struggle to put him above guys who are 20/21 in A ball/AA ball who have had some success. I usually tune out defense unless they are very high end or low end defensive grades, just because I feel like it is hard to gauge unless you watch large chunks of a minor league season. My "he should play well" is more that any 25 year old who is decent should hit like .280 because they are a couple years older than your average prospect. I feel like the 15th-ish organizational ranking is putting a guy as a potential starter where I think he probably falls more into the 25-35 range as a potential utility guy with some decent power.
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I would see if Suter takes like a 2 year 3 million (total) dollar deal with some incentives ( like 1/2 mill for 50 inn pitched etc.). I wouldn't pay north of 3 million for 87 mph and a good clubhouse guy. What about James McCann at catcher? I am sure the mets would eat almost all his salary and would cost next to nothing.
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1) Chourio The AA promotion seemed a bit rushed in order to get more PT, but a bad week shouldn't hurt. 2) Frelick Should start day 1 2023 somewhere, and I like the Steven Kwan reference, however he should have a bit more power and speed. 3) Weimer Barring a nightmarish 25ish game stretch he had a really solid year. 4) Quero He should be a top 100 on some list next year, it will be interesting to see if they are aggressive and send him to AA. 5)Turang He gets lost because he doesn't have the loudest tools, but he is developing power that could lead to 20 HRs and has the speed to be over 30 sb. Another should be a top 100 prospect. 6) Mitchell Hitting over .300 with 7 steal in 58 pa's should give him a lot of prospect status boost. If he was a year or 2 younger I could see him at #3. Another should/could be top 100 prospect 7)Ruiz .332/.447/.973 with 16 HR's and 85 sb's and somehow he is #5-10 on our list. Another should/could be a top 100 prospect. ? Gasser Responded incredible to the promotions, his stuff maybe limits him to a #3 starter ceiling. 9) Eric Brown Good start after the draft, 19 sb really impressed me. 10) Black It will be interesting to keep an eye on the AFL to see if he can get on track. At 22 in A+ hurts the eyeball test as high end prospect. Granted he was week(s) away from AA. 11) Carlos Rodriguez (SP) I feel like he has a lot of Helium with a top notch end to his season. 12) Misiorowski Amazing stuff, but he feels a little like Antione Kelly were there are going to be flashes but accuracy is going to be an even bigger concern. 13)Jace Avino Power plays, strikeouts be damned he could be a fast rising next year. 14)Hendry Mendez Solid in A ball at 18, the tools should develop here to gain more HR's 15)Alexander Cornielle 16)Stiven Cruz 17)Justin Jarvis 18)Logan Henderson All 4 of these seem like solid prospect who could take off next year with small tweeks to gain a couple mph, ticks of accuracy, or in Henderson's case better health. 19)Mario Feliciano Still only 23, he had a solid year. Yet it would be nice to see the power potential come back from 2019. 20)Cam Robinson Jumped to AAA and struggled at 1st but seemingly righted the ship. He seems to be super athletic and I wouldn't be surprised if he plays a big role at some point next year on the big league club. 21)Robert Moore Still only 20 despite 3 years of college. If he can increase his bat to ball skills a bit he could be a steal. 22)Ethan Small If he had his struggles early in the year I would feel better about him. Hopefully just a mental reset will put him back on track. 23)Hedbert Perez Still has the tools and age to be a big time prospect, but not a great year. 24)Eduardo Garcia Needs to work on drawing more walks but in the same Hedbert category 25)Abner Uribe Can't leave the 102 mph potential of the list, maybe he even has had some time to add a little muscle. 26)Felix Valerio Batting average aside he had a solid year at AA as a 21 yo. If the contact skills returns he still be a high upside prospect. 27) Cam Wagoner I read a report about his heater playing up to 97-98 and a power slider. I get a sneaky suspicion he will be this year's pitcher steal (ak Burnes, Woody, Nelson) 28) Matt Wood I am drawn to the college stats and lefty bat. Hopefully he can adjust quickly and continue of a strong college year. 29) Carlos Rodriguez (OF) He was on fire before the injury, still 21 an another guy who maybe the injury could be a blessing he he adds some muscle on his down time and gets some power. 30)Dylan O'Rae I am going to trust the brewers scouting and add him in front of the young guys who were successful in the DSL. I don't get the Can Devenney love, at 25 he should play well in AA. Granted I haven't seen alot from/about him until mid-year this year. He hit .175/.269/.530 in 2021.
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I would argue our AAA team offensively is way better than the Pirates, Reds, and Marlins. If you look at the younger big league players that those teams brought up Oneil Cruz, Rudolfo Castro, Alejo Lopez, JJ Bleday, Lewin Diaz among others most of our AAA hitters were and have been better hitters. Also our pitching staff and defensive is much better than the reds and pirates scewing the general idea. We are 11-8 vs. Pirates, 4-3 vs. Marlins, 13-6 vs. Reds.
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Ok, so this is crazy and I would never do it but what what if we just went nuts and traded everyone for mlb ready players or close to it. Sorry this has just been eating at me the past day and I wanted to see how stacked we could be if the entire front office went off the rail. Burnes to Jays for Gabrial Moreno, Ricky Tiedman, Hayden Juenger, throw in piece Woodruff to Rangers for Josh Jung, Owen White, and Cole Winn Adames to Dodgers for Miguel Vargas, Ryan Pepiot, Jacob Amaya Lauer to Mets for Mark Vientos and Jose Butto Williams to Atl for Vaughn Grissom and Freddy Tarnok Rowdy to Marlins for Tanner Scott Houser to Diamondbacks for Seth Beer and Bryce Jarvis Renfroe to Angels for Ben Joyce Urias to Red Sox for Matthew Lugo Throw in Caritini and Taylor in to other deals or get young 18 yo lotto ticket prospect for each. Sign Verlander 2/90 and Corey Knebel and Zach Britton 1/5 each with incentives and team option year 2. C)Moreno, Feliciano/Severino 1B)Vargas/Vientos 2B)Grissom SS)Turang 3B)Baty/Vargas OF)Frelich, Ruiz, Mitchell, Ruiz DH) Yeli (not trading) Utl) Amaya, eventually Lugo Rotation 1)Verlander 2)Peralta 3)Ashby/Own White 4)Pepiot/Tiedman (I know Tiedman is probably 1/2 year away) 5) 2 of Butto, Tarnok, Winn, Juenger, Small, Gasser, Jarvis (probably not Jarvis) I would piggy back the 3/4/5 spots for the first 1/2 of the year to save young arms and undoubtably 3 of the 9 would seperate and a few would end up in the pen as high leverage relievers. Pen) Bush, Knebel, Britton, Box, Scott, Cousins, Milner, Strezlecki, Perdomo, eventually Joyce and some of the AAA starters. I am sure that would be way to many pitchers so maybe even trade a reliever or two. That would be a pretty amazing upside team, like 6 potential top of the rotation arms and a lineup full of 5 WAR potential guys with some depth to backup a couple failures. Sorry had to do it. -
Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Here are some other thoughts on potential Burnes deals To Atlanta for William Contreras/Travis D'Arnaud and Vauhgn Grissom/Kyle Muller To Toronto for Ricky Tiedeman, Gabriel Moreno or Danny Jansen and a higher prospect To Red Sox for Rafeal Devers, Bryan Mata, and Blaze Jordan To Twins for Jose Miranda and Brooks Lee To Phillies for Andrew Painter and Alec Bohm/Griff McGeary To the Astros for Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz, 2 better pieces To the Mariners for Matt Brash and Emerson Hancock To the Yankees for Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells To Angels for Reid Detmers, Jared Walsh, and Chase Silseth That's not mention the Rangers, O's, Dodgers, and Mets. Also I would expect that we would get at least 4 pieces so all of these packages would need a few mid-tier prospects or better depending on the strength of package. Maybe as discussed we would need to throw in a sweetener as well in a couple deals as well. The point is a Burnes or Woody bidding war could be nuts. -
C- Narvaez/Caratini vs Severino/Feliciano Even. Narvaez and Caritini hit a wall and have been super dusappointing. Assuming Severino would hit a wall if he could play all year I will go with a wash. 1B- Tellez vs. Singleton +3 Brewers. Singleton is a similar version of Tellez, he probably hits around .200 but with a higher obp. Rowdy's clutch gene wins a couple games. 2B- Wong vs. Mathias +1 Brewers. Mathias has been great in Texas, I will give a slight edge to Wong based on this year's power. SS-Adames vs. Turang +2 Brewers. I would bet Turang would hit better than .237 with a .299 obp. However Wilys power make up for that and then some. 3B- Urias vs. Almonte Even. I am really down on Urias, Almonte has had a great year and even hit .333 in 25 pa's in Boston. LF- Yelich vs. Ruiz Even. Ruiz hits at least .260 overall and its not like Yeli had much in the way of clutch hits. CF- Taylor/Cain vs. Frelich +3 AAA. This could be even more towards AAA when considering how bad Cain was. I am going conservative saying Frelich would/could be a .280 hitter RF- Renfroe vs. Weimer +3 Brewers. Renfoe has been solid, Weimer has the upside to make this close, however his poor last month or so in AA bring my edge down. DH- McCutchen vs. Mitchell Evan. Mitchell is showing he could hit .237 at least with some power if he played in the bigs all year. That puts it at +6 Brewers. So 56 Brewers to 44 for Nashville. I do feel like there could be a few arguments to give AAA A boost here or there and maybe some places to make the Brewers have a better edge. Please don't bash this thread to much, it's just to show how solid our AAA was and the Brewers lineup underwhelmed.
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I am not going to say the AAA lineup is better than the big league club but in a 100 game series where teams face the same pitching and defense doesn't matter. How many games do you think the AAA optimum lineup would do against the everyday big league team? I am going to take a few liberties when building the AAA team allstars. C- Narvaez/Caratini vs Severino/Feliciano 1B- Tellez vs. Singleton 2B- Wong vs. Mathias SS-Adames vs. Turang 3B- Urias vs. Almont LF- Yelich vs. Ruiz CF- Taylor/Cain vs. Frelich RF- Renfroe vs. Weimer DH- McCutchen vs. Mitchell
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
jay87shot replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
No clue on Jeffress, I think he lost some velo and his advanced stats were really poor. Hopefully the Crew can get there pitching team with Bush to find a small tweek to get some movement the heater. Otherwise I agree with no more low fastballs and through his secondary pitches more. I think Moore might have a chance at 3 years, I would go there however there probably are some starters who could transition to the bullpen like he did. Matt Boyd, Chris Archer, and Michael Lorenzen could be cheap former starter who could thrive in the bullpen (among others). -
Castillo Extension as Woodruff Comp?
jay87shot replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think if you say both guys are going to get similar deals I would be split. Personally I am a pitching first type fan, however our offense has been so hard to watch and Adames has been the only bright spot for two years. In the end, I will go with Adames. First off I would worry less about injuries for Adames, 2nd if Adames losses a step defensively he can be a top move 3rd baseman and still be a high end player where if Woody loses 3-5 mph on his heater I doubt he is much more than a 3/4 type starter, 3rd I think Willy is more of a clubhouse leader. Turang can play 2nd for a couple of years and then shift to SS and Wily to 3rd. We also have Peralta and Ashby on team friendly deals so we could easily compete with a Ashby/Peralta lead rotation especially when you would add in 2+ high end arms from a Burnes and Woody deal and spend some money on 1 year deals for older vet pitchers.

