Yeah, he was around consensus #10 in one year.
But that doesn't really change the metrics on this kind of risk because it's such a small risk.
Say you sign someone like Chourio to an $80m contract the moment he enters the league. You'd get 6-7 years of team control, usually 1-2 years of guaranteed money at a reasonable rate, and maybe an option.
Obviously, $80m is a lot of money. But the upside is that Chourio could literally provide $300m of value during that time and $80m is roughly Chourio's 50th percentile value at this point. You're betting on the middle with huge upside while the downside is you eat $10-20m a year in 4-5 years when the average payroll is probably $170m or more.
It's a massive payday for the player with pretty minimal risk for the team and in the case of Chourio, he'd still probably enter free agency around 29 years old.