Brock Beauchamp

The Brewers called up several exciting rookies in 2023. Some sported mullets, some threw wicked sinkers with triple-digit velocity, some were defensive experts, and several took up metaphorical spaces only slightly less extreme. In a sport as multifaceted as baseball, it’s always challenging to try and predict whether rookies will sustain their early successes, but it’s fun to do so, anyway. Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic & Brock Beauchamp This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Three of the handbook at the bottom of the article. This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and full entries are available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here. Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic. Joey Wiemer Wiemer burst onto the scene with a 64” frame and á wacky swing, making his debut on April 1st after just missing out on the Opening Day roster. Ranked as the team’s third-best prospect and the 90th overall by MLB Pipeline, Wiemer came with some noticeable prospect hype. His first two months were paltry at best, with a .678 OPS in April and a .497 OPS in May. He found his groove in June, slashing .233/.337/.512 across 101 plate appearances, but he couldn’t hold onto that magic. He closed out the campaign with a .505 OPS in August and a .438 OPS in September. While Wiemer was included on the Brewers’ postseason roster, he did not have a plate appearance in the Wild Card Series. A noisy swing was the main culprit, fueling exceptionally high whiff (33.6%, 9th percentile) and strikeout (28.3%, 17th percentile) rates. He also struggled immensely with hitting breaking balls, accumulating a run value of -11 against sliders, the pitch he saw most frequently. He also accumulated a -4 run value against the curveball and sweeper. When he did make contact, he struggled to achieve a valuable launch angle, finding the sweet spot at an alarmingly low rate (28.9%, 6th percentile). On the bright side, Wiemer had two great qualities: defense and hustle. His sprint speed was in the top 11% of the league, and that (combined with his excellent arm strength (89.3 mph, 81st percentile)) allowed him to be an exceptional defender in center field. He accumulated 7 Outs Above Average and 5 Defensive Runs Saved. Whether Wiemer improves next year depends on whether he can kick existing bad habits. If he can use this offseason to correct his swing and approach at a place like Driveline, he might have a chance to be one of the most well-rounded outfielders in MLB. If nothing changes, he might struggle to find consistent playing time on the Brewers, a team stacked high with outfield talent. Sure, he’s a defensive asset, but based on how Milwaukee performed at the plate last year (.704 OPS, 23rd in MLB), they’ll trade a few outs on balls in play for significantly more production at the plate any day of the week. Abner Uribe Uribe was one of the most electric pitchers on Milwaukee’s staff, and for a squad that included the likes of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams, and Freddy Peralta, that’s saying a lot. With a lethal sinker that averaged 99.4 mph and a slider that averaged 89.4 mph, he posted an ERA of 1.76 and a WHIP of 1.17 over 30 2/3 innings pitched. His slider became an especially effective weapon, boasting outlandish strikeout and whiff rates of 62.1% and 58.1%. Opposing batters averaged just .080 against it, and the xBA (expected batting average) was even lower, at a measly .028. These excellent metrics can be attributed to the unreal amount of movement on the pitch. With 32.2 inches of vertical drop and 8.6 inches of horizontal break, and given the sheer velocity of the fastball off which the pitch plays, it’s no wonder it often leaves hitters dazed and confused. He struggled a little with control, posting a 15.7% walk rate and a somewhat low chase rate at just 24.2%. He was also known to give up some hard contact, with 43.3 percent of opponents’ batted balls leaving the bat at 95 miles per hour or more. His Statcast xERA (expected earned run average) was 3.53, significantly higher than the 1.76 he ended up with. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.77 also signaled that he may have gotten a little luckier than most in 2023, though both those gaps can also be attributed to good defense behind him. Uribe’s raw talent is undeniable. With a full offseason of work in the Milwaukee pitching system, fans should be confident that he’ll return better than ever, barring injury... View full article

This is a terrible idea.

Yeah, that's the question. Most or all of the players are leaving anyway. So how much does the team want to push contention at the sacrifice of a quicker retool? With so many things going wrong to start the offseason (Woody, Counsell), I think it's prudent to retool now to the detriment of the 2024 season.

I think this is a problem that sorts itself out in time. Best case scenario is that Quero goes on fire in 2024 and trading Contreras becomes a legit option 12 months from now.

That's definitely possible, I just think it's unlikely. I think there will be teams left without the starting pitching they want and trading for Burnes with the confidence they'll get a comp pick in ten months lowers the barrier to entry by a lot.

This is generally my feeling as well.

I'm loathe to advocate for rebuilds. I've seen enough of them sputter and fail to realize they're not worth 3+ years of my life waiting for a time that might not come. But in the case of the 2024 Brewers, I think there's a real chance to rebuild on the fly and remain a marginal contender while simultaneously setting up the team for real contention in 2025 and beyond.

Never mind that the chance of an offensive rebound is pretty significant.

I just cannot see how Burnes’s value is the same in July once you factor in the loss of a compensatory pick.

Brewers fans have to go back to the mid-2000s (with players such as Prince Fielder and new Associate Manager Rickie Weeks) to find a prospect who has received as much national attention as Jackson Chourio has over the last two years. This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Three of the handbook at the bottom of the article. This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and full entries are available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here. Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic. Ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 16th-best prospect in the 2020-21 International class, Chourio received the Brewers’ largest bonus in that class, signing for $1.8 million. Only two and a half years after being thus ranked, Chourio became the first Brewer to be crowned the top prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. Chourio ended the season at number two on Baseball America and MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 lists. He is universally regarded as a top-five prospect in the sport. Let’s dig into what makes him special and what he can bring to the 2024 Brewers–perhaps as soon as Opening Day. Offensively, Chourio certainly does not get cheated on his swings. He’s looking to do damage at all times. At the same time, though, he has an innate ability to stay consistent with his bat path and to cover the entire zone. He does a great job of being direct to the ball, attacking the pitch with a very flat vertical bat approach. Despite the flat swing, he can still generate the loft needed to elevate the ball, allowing him to tap into his plus raw power in games. As a team that finished 25th in home runs in 2023, the Brewers would benefit from having a power bat such as Chourio in the lineup. Chourio is more than a power hitter, though. As mentioned earlier, his swing path is very flat and, thus, he stays in the zone for a long time. It’s one of the main drivers of his above-average bat-to-ball ability, and it also allows him to hit the ball on a line and to use all fields with regularity. Chourio pulled the ball 40% of the time and went to the opposite field around 35% of the time. Many of his extra-base hits went to right field and right-center. While his hit tool is probably closer to average than it is to plus, it’s certainly not going to be a weakness for him. Chourio is the type of hitter who should comfortably post a batting average north of .260, year in and year out. Average isn’t a great measure of pure batting talent, but the best hitters usually post a reasonably high average. That’s what fans should be able to expect from Chourio. Chourio has an offensive profile resembling those of the franchise’s best hitters over the years. Players like Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun consistently brought that cocktail of power and bat-to-ball skills from 2007 through 2019. The Brewers haven’t received the same production at those spots since the Covid season, though, and 2023 was no exception. The 89 wRC+ they received from hitters in the three-hole finished 29th out of 30 teams. The 103 wRC+ posted by the players occupying the two spot placed them 21st in MLB. Chourio is the type of hitter who has the potential to solidify one of those two spots, from the moment he steps onto an MLB diamond... View full article

I also think this is the driving factor but I'm unsure shortening the on-base pitch clock time will achieve that goal. I'm also wholly unconvinced the pitch clock has caused more pitcher injuries. The data behind that seems dodgy, at best, and certainly an insufficient sample size.

Yeah, that's kinda my take on it. Between Yelich and Contreras, paying prospect capital (and a pile of cash) for a dedicated DH doesn't make much sense to me.

I just don't see this being a good fit for a variety of reasons. But weirder things have happened in an offseason.

I stay pretty plugged into rumors but don't recall hearing that the Brewers were pursuing enigmatic slugger Eloy Jimenez, as reported in this MLB Trade Rumors roundup. Jimenez is a potent bat... about half the time. Over the past four seasons, he has posted an OPS+ of 139, 99, 141, and 104. And he's also injured often, playing only 259 games in the past three seasons. Pretty much a DH-only, Jimenez would add a sizable right-handed threat to the Brewers but it's hard to see where he fits on this roster as currently constructed. And his contract won't be cheap. He is owed $13.8 million in 2024 and has two team options in 2025 and 2026 for $16.5 and $18.5 million, respectively. View full rumor

Polanco is somewhat expendable. The Twins also have Julien at second and Lewis at third while Lee looks to make his debut some time in 2024. They have more viable infielders than infield positions to play.

Jenkins has the upside but he’s still a ways from the majors. But it’s a fair ask.

Maybe? But MLB players just don’t bring back the prospect hauls they used to. Personally, and as I said earlier in this thread, I think Peralta has the same value 12 months from now that he has today. Length of contract seems to bring diminishing returns past a certain point. If the Brewers want to compete in 2024, they should consider keeping Peralta for one more season and reevaluate next winter. As for Raya and Soto, they’re in the ballpark of return value in an abstract sense. The actual nuts and bolts come down to how the Twins and Brewers view each. Either team could be high or low on each of them, what we think doesn’t really matter much when it comes to specific names. Change Raya to a different name, maybe the Brewers like that better but looks worse on paper.

No, that's a fair deal for Peralta. Brooks Lee is a top-50 global prospect that's likely to make his debut in 2024. Soto and Raya are pretty good prospects with upside. And the trade was suggested by someone else, not me. How do I know it's a pretty fair deal? I proposed a very similar Lee+ deal at Twins Daily and Twins fans were gnashing their teeth over how lop-sided it was because Freddy Peralta "isn't that good".

Yeah, I wonder if Arnold believes the difference in value between Peralta today and Peralta 12 months from now isn't substantial... and he's probably right (barring catastrophic injury, of course). It's really hard to see the Brewers contending without Woodruff, Burnes, AND Peralta. So maybe just hold on to Freddy as a bridge for a little while longer.

I think that deal for Peralta is pretty close to what it will take to move him, though I'm not sure the Brewers are interested in dealing Freddy. From both sides' perspective, the deal makes quite a bit of sense, though.