Brock Beauchamp

The Dodgers certainly need the pitching and they can easily meet Burnes's asking price next winter.

Let's all hug it out with a two-year extension, please.

The pitching market is WAY better than the positional market this offseason. The positional market is actually quite terrible. The best guy on the market - Bellinger - is a guy who I have real questions about for three years, much less the 5+ years he's going to get. And when guys like Teoscar Hernandez are in the top ten positional free agents, you know it's a problem. There's nothing horrible about Hernandez, he's just an immensely flawed player (mediocre for a corner guy against RHP, the most easily-exploited weakness a hitter can have).

As we head toward the 2024 season, the Brewers starting rotation is filled with question marks. Will Corbin Burnes be there? Can Freddy Peralta maintain his form from 2023’s stretch drive? Can Robert Gasser make a smooth transition to the majors? Will good or bad Adrian Houser step up? Will he even be tendered a contract? Can Colin Rea be at least serviceable? And last, but certainly not least: what kind of ability has Aaron Ashby retained after his devastating shoulder injury from last season? This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Two of the handbook at the bottom of the article. This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and future entries will be available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here. Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic. That’s a lineup of six potential starters, but of them, one is likely to be traded away; one returning from serious injury; and question marks surround the level of expected performance from Gasser, Rea, and Houser. Of the sextet, only Gasser can be optioned to the minor leagues. The Brewers pitching staff may look very different come Opening Day. They need at least one external addition in order to remain competitive next year. Who is available on the market to fit the Brewers’ budgetary restrictions and be a capable performer? Middle-Tier Arms Seth Lugo An intriguing mid-rotation arm with a career 3.50 ERA across 641 innings, Lugo spent seven years with the Mets before moving to the Padres. After opting out of a deal that would have paid him $7.5 million in 2024, he’s an enticing, slightly under-the-radar arm. He spent 2021 and 2022 in the bullpen for the Mets, but stretched out as a starter for the Padres in 2023, pitching to a 3.57 ERA across 146 1/3 innings. On the positive side, Lugo has a devastating curveball, an 83rd percentile walk rate, and generates a lot of ground balls that were eaten up by the high-quality Padres infield this year. His peripherals leave much to be desired, with a significant uptick in hard-hit balls on both his primary pitches, the four-seam fastball and the curveball. His weak contact numbers dropped from 6% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023, while his solid contact rate (as defined by Statcast) rose from 1.6% to 7.5%. There is a definite worry with Lugo that the transition to the starting rotation has negated his effectiveness, and that the quality of the Padres’ defense had a big hand in his topline results. That being said, he pounds the strike zone and eats innings. Perhaps he has more to unlock in his second year of returning to the rotation. Lugo figures to be seeking a multi-year deal. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a three-year, $42-million contract for him, which may be feasible for the Brewers should they trade Burnes and his final-year arbitration obligations away. He’s the type of pitcher the Brewers enjoy working with, sporting an above-average spin rate that leads to good movement on both his fastball and his curveball, allowing them to play up. Verdict: Definite potential, but slightly overpriced based on last season. Potential to excel or dip off. Kenta Maeda Maeda is injury-prone. He’s 35 years old. He’s barely surpassed 100 innings in each of his last two seasons. All of that means he’ll be significantly cheaper than most pitchers who possess the upside he still owns. Maeda could be brought in on a two-year contract, and combines welcome veteran presence with a skill set that’s effective in the big leagues. After the All-Star break in 2023, Maeda pitched to a 3.79 ERA across 71 1/3 innings, with 82 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP, albeit with a propensity for home runs. His xERA on the season was 3.77. The Twins’ good-not-great infield defense, wherein Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa combined for -1 Defensive Runs Saved, probably cost him a bit. That said, Maeda had just a 33.6% ground ball rate in 2023, a 9th-percentile number far below his career norms of around 40%. Maeda is the kind of risk that could be worth taking, given the quality of the Brewers’ defense. With an xERA that’s never gone above 4.00, a splitter that had a 35% whiff rate last season, and a slider that played well when kept out of the heart of the strike zone, he has a high floor and some chance to improve on the results he posted last year. With many new pitchers coming through, a facsimile of Wade Miley could benefit Milwaukee, especially one who still has the potential to be a significant contributor on a competing team. As he gets further removed from surgery, there remains a possibility that he will take that next step. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Maeda could be in line for a two-year deal worth $36 million. If he comes in a bit lower, though, he would be entirely affordable for the Brewers. His innings pitched over the last three seasons will prevent Maeda from attaining more, but as long as his splitter keeps splitting, there’s a strong chance for him to have one more high-quality season. If the Brewers can find a way to help him get the ball on the ground more often, those results could come through, but they’ll also need more than 100 innings to make this contract justifiable. Verdict: 2 years, $24 million would provide value for the Brewers, given injury history, but any more could be costly Michael Wacha The Padres declined Wacha’s two-year, $32 million option, sending him into free agency, and he’s an intriguing arm. Wacha has pitched 251 innings over the last two seasons, recording a 3.26 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP led by his increasing use of his changeup, which held hitters to just a .187/.304 xBA/xSLG in 2023. With almost a 36% swing-and-miss rate, it’s an elite pitch that’s brought a lot of success to him over several seasons. With above-average walk, Barrel, and chase rates, to boot, Wacha is a highly effective middle-of-the-rotation pitcher who can deliver quality starts... View full article

I’d love for it into be Baltimore, it makes all the sense. But the way they clutch their prospects…

I get it but I think many people here are overvaluing what Burnes is going to return. Do I think it’s better than Morel plus? Probably. But maybe not. My biggest problem with Morel is that he’s not a good fit for the Brewers, either positionally or where the Brewers look to be in the near future. Lots of teams want Burnes but I don’t think there are that many teams that align with the Brewers interests. I don’t think the Twins line up as well for Burnes as they do Peralta, who will be far more expensive to attain. And in the end, it doesn’t matter what we think, it only matters what Matt Arnold thinks. Which is why I’m generally loathe to predict trades. It’s like trying to watch a movie peeking through a hole in the fence… from a mile away.

If that was true you’d see a lot more Twins-related stuff. 29 fanbases are drooling over the thought of Burnes right now. Some of the proposed packages are… comical.

Okay, just wanted to update that I'll probably close voting on this Friday night so if you want to add your input, do so soon!

Sure, that makes sense. I just have more confidence that the Cardinals will do something painful to the Brewers over the long-term, which balances the scales.

You'd make a trade with the Cardinals before the Cubs? Interesting. I'm not sure I agree but it's close either way.

Don't attribute to malice what is more likely explained by a simple mistake.

I'm not high on Morel so I'd definitely pass on this from the Brewers' side of things.

It would suck if the Cubs signed Burnes to a long-term deal but that might happen after 2024 anyway.

I think that's close enough that the Brewers may shut down the conversation or eagerly snatch up Horton in equal measure. If the Brewers have Horton as a $40m guy, it's a very different story (and we really have no idea what the Brewers think of him, only that their pitching people are smarter than we are).

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic! I think the Cubs might spend big this offseason and they have a farm system that's very enticing. I'm not one to shy away from divisional trades if the deal is right.

If the Cubs were willing to offer Horton for Burnes straight-up, I'd probably do it (assuming the Brewers like what projection they see in Horton, which is probably the case).

Sure, okay, yeah. Looks like Patrick doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man so huzzah.

I agree there is a lot of "sameness" but I feel the variance on a lot of those "same" players ends up being pretty large. Between the Twins and Brewers, I've seen enough bad first base performances to think there are serious flaws with the strategy.

No, it's a place "smart" teams are often punting on but I think the pendulum may have swung a little too far. First base might actually be a little underrated in the current market.

Yes, please.

Of all the positions on the Brewers roster, first base delivered the most disappointing results in 2023. Whereas teams hope to fill that role with prolific sluggers and menacing bats, Milwaukee struggled to find even league-average production, and it’s one of the spots most due for an upgrade. Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic & Brock Beauchamp This is an excerpt from the 2024 Brewer Fanatic Offseason Handbook, you can find a link to download the entirety of Week Two of the handbook at the bottom of the article. This publication is funded by Brewer Fanatic Caretakers and future entries will be available exclusively to Caretakers. During the publish period of the handbook, we are offering 25% off all Caretaker packages using the coupon code HANDBOOK. To become a supporter of Brewer Fanatic, click here. Another perk of Caretaking is ad-free browsing across all of Brewer Fanatic. Rowdy Tellez was supposed to be the team’s primary option, but he wasn’t the answer. After a disappointing season that saw him slash .215/.291/.376 and miss time due to injury, he’s unlikely to return in 2024. There were other journeymen like Luke Voit (designated for assignment), Jon Singleton (designated for assignment), and Owen Miller, but ultimately none were impressive enough to stick at the cold corner. Finally, Milwaukee found the answer at the trade deadline, in Carlos Santana. He was slightly better than league-average at the plate, finishing with a slash line of .249/.314/.459 for the Brewers and an OPS+ of 109. Now that Santana has elected free agency, the Brewers probably need to rely on a new face to hold down the fort. Unfortunately, this year’s first base free-agent pickings are like the pumpkins you get after Halloween: pretty rotten and not worth your time. With a lack of great options, here are a few names that still might lead the Crew to a few more wins next season. Rhys Hoskins - .246/.332/.462 (2022) Despite not playing at all this past year due to an injury suffered in spring training, Hoskins is one of the most valuable first basemen available. He’s relatively young (he’ll be 31 when the season starts), has regularly produced above-average offense (career OPS+ of 125) over five years of service time, and isn’t extremely expensive. In 2022, Hoskins was great at the plate, scoring in the top quartile for nearly every Baseball Savant statistic except his strikeout rate (25.1%, 25th percentile), whiff rate (25.7%, 42nd percentile), and expected batting average (xBA, .239, 35th percentile). His annual 25-30 home runs would be a welcome addition to the Brewers, who were 24th in MLB in home runs hit. The only teams lower were the Rockies, Royals, Pirates, Nationals, and Guardians, not exactly elite company. Regardless of your opinions on whether trading home runs for more strikeouts is a worthy exchange, Hoskins would represent a significant improvement over Tellez (when it comes to average and on-base ability) and Santana (with that power). His exceptional plate discipline and walk rate help compensate for a below-average number of balls in play. MLB Trade Rumors projected him to net a two-year, $36-million deal, shortened due to uncertainty surrounding his hitting capabilities after missing an entire year. Tearing an ACL is no laughing matter and can have long-term detrimental effects on an individual’s ability to generate power or have good timing. Still, if Hoskins can prove himself worthy, his offensive contributions could help him become one of the best bats on the team. Two examples of this with different results are Cody Bellinger and Michael Conforto. After an injury-ridden rough patch with the Dodgers over the past few years, Bellinger signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs and rediscovered his old ways, posting his best OPS (.881) since his MVP season in 2019. This will allow him to be in the running for a longer-term, more lucrative deal in his free agency this offseason. Michael Conforto missed the entirety of the 2022 season with a shoulder injury and upon his return in 2023, signed a two-year, $36 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. With an opt-out after the first year, Conforto decided to stay in San Francisco after a lukewarm season where he posted an OPS of .718. Since Hoskins and Conforto are right around the same age, the time needed to return to peak performance may have the same timeline. Brandon Belt - .254/.369/.490 (2023) Belt is by no means a spring chicken; he’ll be 36 next April. But boy, he still packs a punch. He was the best hitter on a competitive Blue Jays squad in 2023 and posted the same rWAR as Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (this is more a knock on Vlad’s season, but that’s still pretty good!). While he was mostly relegated to serving as a designated hitter, he also accumulated 243 innings at first base... View full article

Possibly. Burnes is definitely better and more reliable. But I think it might cramp Burnes's market a little in the sense a team might go "that ask is crazy, ima go get Glasnow instead".

More directly tied to the Brewers, I wonder how or if this impacts Burnes's market.