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NBBrewFan

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  1. NBBrewFan
    But this is just like the 3 batter rule. The length of games was never impacted by pitching changes to a big degree, but slowing down of batters and pitchers for each pitch was the main driving force. These changes are the same, they really aren't addressing the real issue driving the drop in stolen bases, triples and doubles. If you can't put the ball in play then a shift doesn't matter and bigger bases don't matter. There may be some increase in contact as pitchers may not be able to recover in the time needed to make another pitch, but MLB needs to address the issue of getting more contact and more balls in play on that contact. Move the mound, drop the mound, change the ball (deaden it) so when contact is made the chance it is in play is higher leading to more singles, doubles and triples. More baserunners, more stolen bases, more action. Less HR, so what. Chicks dig ACTION, not watching guys stand around doing nothing.
  2. NBBrewFan
    It is likely to be nothing-at-all. I've looked at it for about a hundred managers and the above pattern could be seen with many with no correlation to overall record or even current season records. It was far short of exhaustive. but I didn't see any correlation to the point I just gave up as I didn't want to look at more data and waste more time to "prove" it was random. I'm guessing this would lead back to the discussion of what impact a manager has on the overall team performance.
  3. NBBrewFan
    I don't know if it's that low. I tend to think overall ranking tracks with top 100 prospects and you need to have 4 prospects in the top 100 (and not all 50+) to be higher than 15th (since each team should have 3.3 on average and the middle is #15/16). So I really don't think they are that far from #19 on mlb.com. I think you could make the argument that we should be flipped with the Giants as 2 Top prospects (#17/#22) isn't necessarily that much better than Churio/Frelick plus Weimer (#11/49/89). Hard to argue we should be higher than #18. Where they may get a bump is if Turang or Mitchel make it into the top 100 at the end of the year or next preseason plus where does Ruiz end up.
  4. NBBrewFan
    I don't know if it's that low. I tend to think overall ranking tracks with top 100 prospects and you need to have 4 prospects in the top 100 (and not all 50+) to be higher than 15th (since each team should have 3.3 on average and the middle is #15/16). So I really don't think they are that far from #19 on mlb.com. I think you could make the argument that we should be flipped with the Giants as 2 Top prospects (#17/#22) isn't necessarily that much better than Churio/Frelick plus Weimer (#11/49/89). Hard to argue we should be higher than #18. Where they may get a bump is if Turang or Mitchel make it into the top 100 at the end of the year or next preseason plus where does Ruiz end up.
  5. NBBrewFan
    Yep, plus it isn't Adames fault his manager puts him #2 in the lineup every every every every every day. That .290 OBP can't be hurting the offense because we just need more solo HR anyways. Runners just make force outs and double plays easier.
  6. NBBrewFan
    +1 Billion! They all are the same type of hitter because the 2 headed Hitting Coaches monster is molding them into the same hitter. At this point I would be much happier if the team didn't have any Hitting Coach.
  7. NBBrewFan
    +1 Billion! They all are the same type of hitter because the 2 headed Hitting Coaches monster is molding them into the same hitter. At this point I would be much happier if the team didn't have any Hitting Coach.
  8. NBBrewFan
    1) Craigtember hasn't been a thing since 2019. Do we still think it's a thing? We shall see. 2) They have struggled to beat bad teams because they are an average team. They are under +30 for run differential so far because they just aren't putting enough good pitching and/or good hitting together. Can they? I guess, but will they? Edit: Title shouldn't read " in September", but "starting today".
  9. NBBrewFan
    1) Craigtember hasn't been a thing since 2019. Do we still think it's a thing? We shall see. 2) They have struggled to beat bad teams because they are an average team. They are under +30 for run differential so far because they just aren't putting enough good pitching and/or good hitting together. Can they? I guess, but will they? Edit: Title shouldn't read " in September", but "starting today".
  10. NBBrewFan
    The projections systems are actually down on the Brewers. There's 2 playoff spots for 3 teams. By chance each would have a 67% chance to grab one of the 2 spots. The fact the Brewers are coming in below 67% means that the projection systems favor the Padres and Phillies to get those spots. Does it mean they will? Of course not, but realistically they are the underdog and who doesn't like rooting for the underdog. Go Lions! I mean, Go Brewers!
  11. NBBrewFan
    The projections systems are actually down on the Brewers. There's 2 playoff spots for 3 teams. By chance each would have a 67% chance to grab one of the 2 spots. The fact the Brewers are coming in below 67% means that the projection systems favor the Padres and Phillies to get those spots. Does it mean they will? Of course not, but realistically they are the underdog and who doesn't like rooting for the underdog. Go Lions! I mean, Go Brewers!
  12. NBBrewFan
    keep reading.
  13. NBBrewFan
    I agree 100%. It's not that there's just one option and the idea that Counsell may not even understand that you can sit McCutcheon means he isn't as smart as people think.
  14. NBBrewFan
    I really wonder what the Brewers think in terms of some of these players. McCutcheon is almost out there every day no matter what the stats say about his ability to hit RH pitching. He's even in the field where he and Yelich make butchering seem like an art form. Hiura sits and sits (oh no he strikes out too much in a lineup we created of all or nothing hitters - can't have that) and yet he produces more than the crappy vets they put out there day after day. We keep wondering why they didn't add a hitter at the deadline? Maybe they have no problem with the way the offense has been assembled. I really am beginning to think that they just have an inflated view of the quality of the players they have acquired and trot out day after day. Maybe the best thing for this team is to fall apart over the next 7 weeks so a few in the front office will maybe consider that their decisions aren't working.
  15. NBBrewFan
    From a Cumulative WAR point of view, he was worth the contract (8.4 WAR/$80M = $9.5M per WAR). Unfortunately it wasn't nearly as spread out as the Brewers may have liked since 73% came in one season (2018). On the other hand, we don't get to the 7th game of the NLCS in 2018 without that contribution. I think I'm not going out on a limb and say that when the Yelich contract is done we will look back at the Cain deal and think what a great contract.
  16. NBBrewFan
    If you add his ISO to the tables, there clearly is a huge drop to the levels he was at when 21/22 and just starting in MLB. Exit Velocity is irrelevant if you are only converting that into hard hit singles. And, since he is just starting or goes into a slump whenever I comment that he hasn't been that bad, I am going to just stop defending him. He's a 10 ton anchor on a dingy.
  17. NBBrewFan
    Don't know if the Rangers would be interested, but they've paid a lot for offense, but have little starting pitching. I would trade Woodruff to the Rangers for Josh Jung and prospects (lower/lottery). Jung has more upside than anything we have near 3B in the system, and Urias slides over to 2B. The rangers have Seager and Semian at 2B/SS for the long-term future, but they could move Semien to 3B and promote Foscue for 2B. Not sure what else the Rangers would need to include, but I like Jung. I'd also seriously consider bringing up Frelick and Wiemer for the OF (with Yelich the regular DH). Slot in Jung at 3B and Urias at 2B and that doesn't really cost much more than Woodruff and likely solves some of the offensive issues.
  18. NBBrewFan
    Hiura vs McCutcheon (wRC+): Yep, CLEARLY no reason. FYI those great numbers from June 1st on that get quoted so often are almost all 4 weeks in June.
  19. NBBrewFan
    So would you agree with the sentiment that Hiura is adjusting to how he is being pitched and while some of those adjustments may improve previous attempts to pitch to his weaknesses, those adjustments may lead to new areas where he is worse? I think he's making adjustments to pitchers adjustments. While some of those adjustments are working (better barrel/HardHit/EV/wRC+) they are also leading to some less favorable outcomes (more K's). I haven't looked at his increased BB% (went form 7.x% to 10.x%), but I wonder if some of that is laying off pitches that are high and sometimes that high pitch comes in as a strike (K) and other times a ball (BB). His Swing% is down and his Called Strike% is up so he maybe he is being more selective without looking at more data I don't know if that's situational (with more strikes he's more selective) or just an overall change, or where those pitches might be that he's not swinging at.
  20. NBBrewFan
    Do you really think that teams don't know his current/past tendencies and just choose to throw him mid/low?
  21. NBBrewFan
    I agree with Adames being excellent this year at defense. I would say #2 should be that the teams approach of relying so heavily on HR and encouraging swing for the moon batting is the problem. While Adames may be the poster-child for that approach, it is a team-wide issue. I posted in another thread that given that the team has starting pitching where the top 3 are elite and the top 5 match up well with almost any other club (i.e Run prevention with better defense) and with a goal of keeping the score close/low that they should be more focused on situational hitting and getting runners in the "old way". Instead they seem to think that solo HR are the route to go. I know that they are have been putting a high amount of capital into contact hitters in the draft, but at the MLB level they have stayed with the all or nothing approach. Sure, the talent of the team may be that higher BA/contact isn't possible, but the current approach seems to be too hit or miss or miss or miss or miss or miss or miss.
  22. NBBrewFan
    Here are Hiura's stats by season. His 2022 looks much more like 2019 than 2020+2021: His wRC+ is almost identical to 2019, his WAR scaled to the same PA as 2019 would be 2.3, his OBP is significantly higher than his AVG because his BB% is way up (and much better than 2020+2021). Yes, K% is high, but he is still being productive even though he's making so many outs by strikeout. Personally I'm less concerned about his K% if he can maintain his ISO and wRC+ going forward. His AB/HR is 12.9 which is still very high. His Exit Velocity, Barrel% and HardHit% are all BETTER than 2019. In several ways he is an enigma. The nice thing about his HR on Saturday is that he "guessed" correctly what he was going to get and the general area (I think) because he just crushed that ball. Based on EV/Barrel/HardHit it may be that a part of the jump in K% is that he is just guessing wrong on where and what type of pitch he is getting on the strike 3 pitch . I just hope he gets consistent AB for the remainder of the year.
  23. NBBrewFan
    After a week of pretty poor moves, this is a positive for the Brewers as the risk of losing him by claim worked out as he wasn't claimed and he agreed to stay. I think a Caratini/Severino tandem next year means they can focus limited resources on other positions. (they probably talked to Severino before the DFA to gauge his willingness before doing it so him agreeing to stay was likely anyways)
  24. NBBrewFan
    I think he's a candidate to see an optometrist. It's possible he has an astigmatism or other issue with his eye that he can't see the ball in focus or as clearly from a left handed pitcher compared to right handed pitcher. Personally I have a left dominant eye where my focus appears to be dominated by my left eye, but when each eye is tested (with the other closed) I have better vision in my right eye. If there is a vision issue for Keston, he could twist his head slightly to the right when batting against a LH pitcher so that he has the same angle of view as a right hander or change his batting stance so he's angled a little for a LH (place his back (right) foot farther from the plate by a certain amount.
  25. NBBrewFan
    This is just fascinating and a real example of the world we live in: Joe 1: I've got an internet connection and I can google! I'm an expert in anything! Joe 2: There are ways the experts do things that are different, here is what they do... Joe 3: You calling us "rubes" and we're "uneducated"? Sure True Blue has a delivery issue, but this is literally happening all over the internet all the time.
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