That is really interesting. Just taking that and breaking it off at 4.50 the Brewers record for League Average pitchers or better is 43-32-1 vs. Pitchers w/ ERA < 4.50 23-29 vs. Pitchers w/ ERA > 4.50 anyway, you have 128 games there, but the record would come out to 66-61-1, when the Brewers really are 63-65. Not sure where you get that variance from. Maybe you could explain your original numbers a little better, Id be interested in hearing it. EDIT: Nevermind, I see the W/L record is against the spread. That explains the variance. I'd still like to hear more about how you went about this.