Brewcrew82

Yeah, I'm not dealing with the Orioles if they don't give us Rodriguez, as I have no interest in DL Hall. Corbin Burnes is a top 3 pitcher in the game with no injury history to speak of and has two full years of control. This deal should be the Castillo trade on steroids. In that light, it's only fair that they give up a premium prospect such as Grayson Rodriguez. As for whether the Orioles would actually pull the trigger, I think they'd be quite tempted, especially if they think they can extend Burnes. Burnes would jumpstart their competitive drive, much like Castillo did this past year for the Mariners, and would provide a top of the rotation stud that they need to compete in a tough AL East. Rodriguez is a heck of a prospect, but Burnes is already what they hope Rodriguez ultimately becomes. And, again, I just don't see them as real players for the DeGrom, Verlander, Rodon triumvirate, which means that if they want a guaranteed front of the rotation stud starting Opening Day, Burnes is their best bet.

You do realize that ERA is much more useful when evaluating multiple seasons as opposed to a single season? Things like xFIP and SIERA are good for evaluating single seasons and predicting the future because they take luck and things that a pitcher can’t control out of the equation. However, that stuff tends to even out over the course of several seasons, so ERA becomes increasingly useful. Anyways, it shouldn’t matter because I said from the start that I was basing my “tad” overrated opinion on the sharp divergence between Nola’s metrics/peripherals and actual results (I.e., ERA) since his 2018 breakout.

BTW that was a great game 1 of the World Series. Wonder if we’re in line for one of those all-time classics….

Did you even read my original statement? Very very good metrics and peripherals, like top 5 pitcher worthy, but his actual results (i.e,, ERA) have not come close to matching that lately. Hence, a “tad” overrated. Many would say he’s for sure top 10 based on his metrics and peripherals, but I would put him between 15-11. It’s just my opinion and not that hot of a take.

Not sure if I’d say 2019 was a pennant-caliber team. They were scorching hot for sure, but I think the lack of starting pitching and MVP Yelich would have caught up to them eventually had they made it past WSH. Certainly wouldn’t put them above the 2011 team. That team might’ve won the World Series had Greinke and Marcum not crapped the bed.

Not sure if I’d say 2019 was a pennant-caliber team. They were scorching hot for sure, but I think the lack of starting pitching and MVP Yelich would have caught up to them eventually had they made it past WSH. Certainly wouldn’t put them above the 2011 team. That team might’ve won the World Series had Greinke and Marcum not crapped the bed.

Did I specifically say anyone considers him a top 5 pitcher in baseball? All I said he's much closer to 15 than 5 because of his tendency to get lit up more frequently than other elite pitchers. Sheesh.

DeGrom is going to either New York, Atlanta, or LA. Verlander likely returns to Houston or goes out West. Rodon will also probably go to a large market such as the Cubs or Yankees. I just don't see them as a likely landing spot for any of those pitchers. But they have been rumored as a landing spot for Burnes. By trading for Burnes, they get a for-sure top 3 starter in the game to compete in a tough AL East. It's just one hypothetical scenario that works out trade value wise.

He's 10th in FIP in the same period. So you can laugh at the irony all you want. I generally don't like ERA (particularly when used to evaluate single seasons), but it does mean something when his is so much higher than every other elite pitcher's since 2019, and he hasn't posted an ERA below 3 since 2018. My argument was that he's a "tad overrated" because he has a tendency to get lit up more than the average elite pitcher, which is largely true. Closer to a top 15 pitcher than a top 5.

If they want Burnes, a top 3 pitcher in the game, that's who they're going to have to give up as I want nothing to do with DL Hall. They're not going after DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon. They may or may not do it in the end, but it's an even deal value-wise.

And Castillo signed a team-friendly deal. It isn't unreasonable to expect that Woodruff may want something a little closer to market rate.

"He hasn't posted an ERA below 3.00 since 2018." He has by far the highest ERA (3.80) among elite pitchers since 2020....

I'm assuming an in-season agreement, as with Castillo. Woodruff is also better than Castillo.

He's obviously still really really good. But since his breakout 2018, he hasn't posted an ERA below 3 in a season despite great peripherals and metrics. Last year, his ERA was above 4.50. That's what I meant by a "tad" overrated. He becomes a little too hittable at times, like in his last couple starts. I'd probably rank DeGrom, Scherzer, Burnes, Verlander, Alcantara, McClanahan, Wheeler, Woodruff, Urias, and Rodon all ahead of him at this point.

The "trade Corbin Burnes and still be competitive" edition: Kolten Wong, option declined Brent Suter, non-tendered Trevor Gott, non-tendered Victor Caratini, non-tendered Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at 9M AAV, 3rd year team option Jose Abreu, signed for 3 years at 18.5M AAV Corbin Burnes, traded to BAL for Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westberg, and Seth Johnson Tyrone Taylor, traded to OAK for A.J. Puk Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez (P) Brandon Woodruff, extended for 5 years at $118M, 6th year vesting option Vs. RHP Vs. LHP Frelick Frelick Jansen Jansen Yelich Abreu Abreu Renfroe Tellez Adames Adames Yelich Renfroe Urias Westburg Westburg Turang Brosseau C: Danny Jansen ($3.70M) 1B: Jose Abreu ($18.50M) 2B: Luis Urias ($4.30M) 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.70M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M) DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M) Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M) Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M) SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP3: Eric Lauer ($5.20M) SP4: Grayson Rodriguez ($0.70M) SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M) CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M) RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M) RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M) RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M) RP: Holby Milner ($1.10M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M) Payroll is 3.69% under budget

But you are using the word "superstar". You're the only one I've heard use that word re. Mitchell. And when you say "a talent like him", as the previous poster stated, you're talking about like 100-150 other minor league players. So, basically you're never in favor of trading top prospects until you've seen them personally for over a year?

Insightful as always.

Philly is fun.

Aaron Nola is a tad overrated imo. Great peripherals and metrics but the results just never match it.

I would love a player like Kyle Tucker.

Okay. It's not grounded in reality to cast him as a potential or future superstar. He would need a complete swing overhaul and has not shown the production commensurate with a superstar at any level.

That's fair. But I don't think it's grounded in reality to label him a future superstar. You have to give talent to get talent and Mitchell for Jansen would represent a fair, sensible swap for both sides.

It's not just the minors. It's his entire college career until now that's been the story with him. Great raw power, yet doesn't show it in games or have the swing to be able to consistently do so. Also, injury prone. Again, there's a reason why a guy like Chourio is a top 10 prospect and Mitchell is left off entirely. The superstar outcome just isn't likely with him.

BTV is pretty off on Woodruff's value, imo. No reason there should be a 40 MTV difference between Woody and Burnes. Better measuring stick is the Castillo trade. So, two top 100 prospects to begin. O'Hoppe is a great start. Unfortunately, the Angels lack a clear, top 100 level arm.

20 home runs is even getting generous. I've got him as more of a .280, 12-17 HR, 30 SB player if everything goes right on his current trajectory. Granted, with his fielding that would still around a 4 WAR player. But, yes, short of a superstar and someone whose floor is below that of Frelick, for comparison. A left-handed Harrison Bader, basically.