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Lucas O.

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Everything posted by Lucas O.

  1. Lucas O.
    I don’t know when Wichrowski hit 100. Must have been during spring training in the backfields because I don’t remember him touching that hard during an actual game.
  2. Lucas O.
    I doubt the Brewers would view Miranda as anything other than a 1B/DH. He has -12 OAA in nearly 1200 career inning at 3B.
  3. Lucas O.
    Bregman has some major red flags that I'd feel way more comfortable steering clear from. 1. His walk rate absolutely cratered last year. His lowest BB-rate since the 2017 season was 11.0% in 2021. This year it was 6.9%. 2. He went from a huge plus hitter against FB to a below average hitter against FB. His run value against FB was +11 in 2022 and +11 in 2023. In 2024 it was -2 with a .343 xwOBA which is 40 points lower than any non-2020 season outside of his rookie year. Maybe he was playing through an injury this year or something but wrong side of 30, cratering BB-rate, and decline in quality against FB feels like a red flag for anything more than a short-term deal.
  4. Lucas O.
    And I already see people on twitter saying that Clase was potentially tipping pitches
  5. Lucas O.
    Edwin Diaz has also stunk. Strahm and Hoffman have been bad for Philly as well. Hader choked for the Astros as well.
  6. Lucas O.
    They were the last holdout on Tyler Black being a Top 100 prospect I believe. Fangraphs, BA, BP, and now Pipeline all have soured greatly on him. Pipeline said it was due to a lack of defensive home and that his batted ball data was very poor in AAA
  7. Lucas O.
    I specifically became a Brighton fan because they give me Brewers/moneyball vibes. Think my hopes for this year after a big spending summer was making Conference League and a QF run in one of the Cups. You basically know you have no chance of winning the league or even making Champions League but it's still a lot of fun. I read somewhere that for the MLB to match NBA's 80% higher seed win rate in the playoffs you would need to play a Best of 75 series. Putting baseball down to 3 game series is just inviting randomness. We had a team 111 wRC+ vs the Mets and the Mets had a 64 wRC+ but they beat us 2-1 and outscored us by 4 runs. If you ran a simulation with one team having a 111 wRC+ and the other a 64 wRC+ in a 3 game series, the team with a 111 wRC+ would win far more often than not, but in a singular 3 game series anything can happen. Mets hit over .400 with RISP during the series while the Brewers hit .160. Basically the series came down to the Mets having extremely good sequencing and the Brewers having extremely poor sequencing.
  8. Lucas O.
    I think Hall ends up in the rotation as well with Rea shifting into more of a swingman role. I can't imagine the expectation for Hall and Woodruff would be 30 starts and 150+ IP considering Hall has never thrown 100 innings in a season and Woodruff is coming off shoulder surgery.
  9. Lucas O.
    Yes it isn't close to being as good as a rotation headed by Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta. Going into 2022 the rotation was Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser. Going into 2023 the rotation was Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Miley, Houser. Going into 2024 the rotation currently looks like Peralta, Myers, Woodruff (post shoulder surgery), Hall, Civale. I don't know how anyone could possibly say that rotation headed into 2024 is better than 2022 and 2023.
  10. Lucas O.
    Please show what short term SS/3B the Brewers can sign that can hit 30 HR
  11. Lucas O.
    That pitching staff isn't even close to as good as 2022 and 2023.
  12. Lucas O.
    Being a starting pitcher in a playoff game isn't for every rookie.
  13. Lucas O.
    Game 1 - Koenig opens for Civale Game 2 - Freddy Game 3 - Montas Game 4 - Myers Game 5 - Freddy
  14. Lucas O.
    Or that playoff baseball is incredibly random and in 3 game samples anyone can beat anyone even if that success isn't remotely sustainable.
  15. Lucas O.
    Their linsanity run needs to end eventually. They had a 64 wRC+ in the series against us and a 77 wRC+ today and they are going to win again. Just getting insane cluster luck right now.
  16. Lucas O.
    I mean we traded for Jake Bauers last year. Also traded for Oliver Dunn who ran a 27.5% K-rate in AA.
  17. Lucas O.
    Yeah I'm not able to watch, but I have gameday up on my laptop just following the game.
  18. Lucas O.
    I mostly saw 92-94 when he was a starter this year.
  19. Lucas O.
    Zach Wheeler is averaging 98mph with his FB through 3 innings which is up almost 3mph over his season average.
  20. Lucas O.
    Just seems like he will be an odd man out. Rea can do exactly what Wilson does but do it at a better level.
  21. Lucas O.
    Here's MLBTR's 2025 Arb estimates for the Brewers Hoby Milner (5.068): $2.7MM Aaron Civale (5.058): $8MM Devin Williams (5.056): $7.7MM (Brewers hold $10.5MM club option/$250K buyout) Jake Bauers (4.084): $2.3MM Bryse Wilson (4.036): $1.5MM Joel Payamps (4.027): $2.8MM Eric Haase (3.159): $1.8MM William Conteras (3.112): $7.6MM Nick Mears (3.022): $900K Trevor Megill (3.002): $2MM Will be back - Civale, Payamps, Haase, Contreras, Mears, Megill Questionable - Milner, Bauers, Wilson (could see these guys being tendered and traded, non-tendered, or tendered) Traded - Williams
  22. Lucas O.
    Haase is under team control for 3 more seasons. I imagine he's almost a complete lock to be the Brewers backup catcher next year.
  23. Lucas O.
    I think you're giving Shane Smith a few extra ticks. Strictly as a reliever in AAA he averaged 94.3 mph on his FB and topped out at 96.0
  24. Lucas O.
    Nope. The Brewers are trading Devin because of the lack of team control. They aren't going to trade him for someone who will be a FA the same time Devin is. Just not the Brewers MO.
  25. Lucas O.
    I mean that counts last night. Going into last night he had a 3.86 ERA and 3.82 FIP when pitching on 0 days rest but even then it's a mostly pointless sample
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