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Lucas O.

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Everything posted by Lucas O.

  1. Lucas O.
    The offense definitely has potential outcomes both positive and negative in comparison to last year, but I think the upside is much higher this year with Winker, Contreras and some rookies coming up. If things go right we could push for a top 10 offense in all of baseball (finished 11th in wRC+ last year I believe)
  2. Lucas O.
    Spring Training MVP: Keston Hiura Surprise OD roster inclusion(s): Blake Perkins Surprise OD roster omission(s): Mike Brosseau Breakout(s): Peter Strzelecki, Rowdy Tellez, Luis Urias Disappointment(s): Aaron Ashby Bounceback(s): Jesse Winker, Freddy Peralta (healthier) Season MVP: Corbin Burnes Cy Young: Corbin Burnes Reliever of the Year: Devin Williams Rookie of the Year: Sal Frelick Bold Prediction: Rowdy finishes third in 1B Silver Slugger voting Brewers Record: 92-70 Postseason? Yes
  3. Lucas O.
    I've noted this before but Winker also underperformed his xwOBA by .032 which was the 12th biggest underperformance in the MLB. Among qualified MLB hitters his .345 xwOBA was 34th in the MLB (would have been second on the Brewers behind Rowdy's .349). Winker was injured and one of the biggest underperformers of his expected stats but still managed to put up a 109 wRC+. Obviously it's not a guarantee that he bounces back to even his career average of 126 wRC+, but the odds are pretty darn high that he is an upgrade over Cutch as our primary DH.
  4. Lucas O.
    That's not awesome to hear. Hopefully more rest fixes the issue, if not Ashby could be dealing with this all year.
  5. Lucas O.
    I'd expect Winker to bounce back somewhat offensively and Wong to regress somewhat offensively because Winker is moving to a more hitter-friendly park and Wong a more pitcher-friendly. What makes or breaks this trade imo is if Wong bounces back in the field. He was one of the worst if not the worst defensive 2B in baseball last year.
  6. Lucas O.
    Also giving the Feliciano move a D is pretty harsh. The Tigers DFA'd him and nobody in the MLB claimed him. He clearly isn't valued as someone deserving of taking up a 40-man spot at this point.
  7. Lucas O.
    I still don't understand the F grade for Suter. Suter was not flexible the last two years. He has been one of the lowest leverage relief pitchers in baseball. Losing him as a person sucks, but $3M for the last guy in the bullpen is just a waste of an already limited budget.
  8. Lucas O.
    Padres extending a 36 year old to a 6 year deal to lower the AAV to reduce their tax payments? Still feels like a weird deal to make. There's a world where they are eating 3 years of $16M each for a guy to be retired. They are just going all in on a championship in the next few years.
  9. Lucas O.
    Ashby seemingly a lock to start the season in the pen. 6-man rotation of Burnes, Woodruff, Freddy, Lauer, Houser, Miley to start the season.
  10. Lucas O.
    The best hope for the OBP to improve is the articles saying Taylor will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the shift ban are correct. He's just never going to be a guy with a good walk rate, so the only way to improve the OBP will be through improving the BA.
  11. Lucas O.
    Woodruff didn't have an arm injury. He had a sprained ankle and issues with Raynaud's syndrome.
  12. Lucas O.
    Burnes pitched 145 innings in 2017 as a 22-year-old in the minors which is more than Freddy has ever pitched in a single year. Burnes also has a prototypical SP build at 6'3", 225 pounds compared to Freddy who is small by SP standards at 5'11", 199 pounds.
  13. Lucas O.
    It will be interesting to see how CC plans to use our improved SP depth this year. I know he has already committed to DW being the closer, but I hope he uses our improved depth to be super flexible with our pitchers outside of DW, Burnes, and Woodruff. That could be piggyback starts, skipping starts, bullpen stretches out of Miley, Lauer, Peralta, Ashby, Houser. I'm excited to see what CC has in store for us.
  14. Lucas O.
    1. Chourio - OF 2. Frelick - OF 3. Turang - IF 4. Quero - C 5. Wiemer - OF 6. Mitchell - OF 7. Gasser - SP 8. Black - IF/OF 9. Brown Jr. - IF 10. Misiorowski - SP 11. Uribe - RP 12. Moore - IF 13. Junk - SP 14. Rodriguez - SP 15. Cruz - SP 16. Mendez - OF 17. Lara - OF 18. Small - SP 19. Areinamo - IF 20. Hernandez - SP/RP
  15. Lucas O.
    Are you doing a separate RP list?
  16. Lucas O.
    Those arm strength numbers are the average of top 5% of his hardest throws though. I feel like that does a decent job of factoring out the easy throws. The naked eye could see the difference between Urias and Wong's double play turns at 2B.
  17. Lucas O.
    Ah yes just so much crime near Fiserv Forum which is probably in the general area where a downtown baseball stadium would be put.
  18. Lucas O.
    No his 2021 isn't as good as Sheets 2004. 2004 Sheets - 237 IP, 62 ERA-, 59 FIP-, 7.0 RA9-WAR, 8.0 fWAR respective ranks in MLB that year 4th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 2nd 2021 Woodruff - 179 IP, 61 ERA-, 69 FIP-, 6.3 RA9-WAR, 4.7 fWAR respective ranks in MLB that year 20th, 4th, 6th, 5th, 9th
  19. Lucas O.
    I never argued Sheets over Woodruff careers. I'm saying Woodruff doesn't have any season that touches Sheets 2004 because you said Woodruff has 4 seasons at least as good or better than anything Sheets did.
  20. Lucas O.
    This is seriously underrated Sheets 2004 which is the 2nd best season in Brewers history behind Burnes 2021 season (could even have a valid argument Sheets 2004 was better because he pitched significantly more innings than Burnes 2021)
  21. Lucas O.
    After putting Burnitz ahead of Yelich in RF, I am confused with your logic of Woodruff and Burnes over Sheets and Higuera. Yelich like Woodruff and Burnes has much better numbers than Burnitz like Sheets and Higuera, but you chose the longevity of Burnitz and are doing the opposite for the SP.
  22. Lucas O.
    Feel like this probably makes it harder for Frelick to break into the team out of camp, but it will be better practice for Frelick playing against pitchers who are trying to win and not trying to work on their stuff.
  23. Lucas O.
    I came to the same conclusion last season after the deadline when Burnes said there wasn’t much extension talks. There’s just not many pitchers who sign extensions with 2 years left in arb. From my research it seemed like you either extend them before they hit arb or when they hit their last year of arb.
  24. Lucas O.
    What type of season do you think Rowdy is going to have to get 3.8 WAR? Vlad Jr had similar BsR and defensive ratings as Rowdy last year and only put up 2.8 fWAR despite having a 132 wRC+with 107 more PA than Rowdy. Do you predict Rowdy’s baserunning and defensive improve or are you thinking he’s going to put up around a 140 wRC+?
  25. Lucas O.
    Out of the 118 players with 1000 PA over the last two seasons, Winker's BsR is the second worst at -10.7. The only player with a worse BsR is Josh Bell at -11.6.
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