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Lucas O.

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Everything posted by Lucas O.

  1. Lucas O.
    Pretty sure if you are a season ticket holder for a team that you get to watch the games for free on Apple TV (have no clue how that works, but I have seen people say that's the case on twitter)
  2. Lucas O.
    Think it will be very difficult for Winker to hit 2 WAR. For reference Vogelbach had a 128 wRC+ in 461 PA and only put up 1.5 fWAR. Winker has also somehow graded as a worse baserunner than Vogelbach over the last two seasons. For Winker to get to 2 WAR, he would likely need a 135 wRC+. Not saying it isn't possible but I'd personally put the money on him being under 2 WAR.
  3. Lucas O.
    It certainly looks and moves like a screwball, but doesn't he use a changeup grip which is why it is called a changeup?
  4. Lucas O.
    So they determine OF arm strength by the average of their top 10% throws. More sample could make it go down, but his max is still really good. Renfroe - 98.4 max, 93.8 overall Mitchell - 96.8 max, 93.5 overall
  5. Lucas O.
    I'm going with Burnes. Think he has a strong season after a rough (by his standards) second half last year. Adames as runner up, but both being above 5 WAR.
  6. Lucas O.
    Unrelated to who is starting in CF, but can't believe Longenhagen has Mitchell at 70 speed and 55 arm strength. The 55 arm strength is especially ridiculous when Mitchell was 96th percentile arm strength in his short MLB stint. I think the opening day job is Mitchell's to lose. If he struggles in spring training and Frelick plays well I could see Frelick being the opening day CF.
  7. Lucas O.
    It's not surprising he would say that about Frelick. Law didn't even have Kwan on his top 100 last season.
  8. Lucas O.
    Yeah San Diego is the 8th biggest US city and 17th biggest US metro. It’s much larger than Milwaukee. Their media market is small for the reasons you listed, proximity to LA and Mexico.
  9. Lucas O.
    I never said we signed the steals of FA. I said the players you suggested are remarkably similar to the players we actually signed and then put out some numbers to support that. Cruz is 42 years old. The list of 42 year olds that bounce back from their worst season in 15+ years is likely pretty small. We also traded for Jesse Winker to be our DH who had a wRC+ 24 points higher than Cruz last year and an xwOBA 25 points higher.
  10. Lucas O.
    Not at all. Cruz will be 42 next year and fell off a cliff last year in basically every single hitting category barrel rate, hard hit rate, EV, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, xwOBACON, and hard hit rate. In the last two seasons Wacha has 252 IP with 4.18 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.95 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP In the last two seasons Manaea has 337 IP with 4.40 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 3.78 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP Drury had a great year last year, but he overperformed his xwOBA by 34 points. His .316 xwOBA was only 7 points higher than Anderson's .309 xwOBA despite Anderson playing injured for basically half the season. (I think Drury over Anderson is a very fair argument but acting like one is substantially better than the other is a bit too much) In the last two season Cueto has 273 IP with 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.33 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP Canelario is coming off a season with an 80 wRC+ where his xwOBA was 17 points lower than Anderson and his BB-rate cratered to 6%.
  11. Lucas O.
    You complained about the Miley/Anderson signings, and these are your suggestions? How are these suggestions any different than the Anderson/Miley signings?
  12. Lucas O.
    Owen Miller was a trade and you included him in your four players listed. Again just another honest mistake I am sure.
  13. Lucas O.
    https://twitter.com/Wcontreras42/status/1620116740427632642?s=20
  14. Lucas O.
    A bit funny that you ignore the two biggest offseason moves. I am sure it was just an honest mistake.
  15. Lucas O.
    Yelich’s 18 and 19 were the 3rd and 4th best seasons in franchise history by position player fWAR. Only behind 2014 Lucroy and 1982 Robin Yount.
  16. Lucas O.
    I think Yelich has to be number 1 in RF or number 2 in LF. I don’t think it’s fair to him to put him at HM in LF and 2 at RF. Even if you just want to use 18/19 as Yelich as a RF and 20-22 as a LF I would still put him over Burnitz in RF. Yelich in 18/19: 277 G, .327/.415/.631 for a 171 OPS+. He had 80 HR, 207 RBI, and 52 SB. He accumulated 14.2 bWAR. He won MVP and had an MVP-runner up. Burnitz had 15.7 bWAR in 782 games. Nearly 3 times as many games for 1.5 bWAR than those two years of Yelich.
  17. Lucas O.
    He cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA
  18. Lucas O.
    He cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA
  19. Lucas O.
    I totally forgot about Cameron. He absolutely should be above Podsednik as well. Cameron as a Brewer: 269 G, .247/.337/.464 for a 111 wRC+. He had 3 DRS and 8.1 fWAR.
  20. Lucas O.
    Yeah I don’t see any reason for Podsednik to be above Cain. Podsednik’s as a Brewer: 308 G, .276/.344/.401 for a 95 wRC+. He had -11 DRS and finished with 5.1 fWAR. Cain as a Brewer: 415 G, .270/.344/.380 for a 96 wRC+. He had 49 DRS and finished with 8.5 fWAR. Cain’s 2018 was worth more fWAR than Podsednik’s two years in Milwaukee combined.
  21. Lucas O.
    Pipeline’s top 100 is out. Brewers have 3 in the top 100. Wiemer at 90. Frelick at 30. Chourio at 8.
  22. Lucas O.
    I thought he had a chance but felt it was 50/50 either way. I’m still not sold that he will start in AA. He was good in A+ but wasn’t dominant like he was in A ball. If the AA season didn’t run a week longer than the A+ season, I don’t think Chourio would have been in AA last season.
  23. Lucas O.
    Why is Gasser at big league camp when the Brewers already have 7 MLB SP? Top prospects in AAA pretty much always get invited to big league camp. If a prospect has a reasonable chance of being on the MLB roster at some point in the season they will almost always be invited to big league camp.
  24. Lucas O.
    Is it really that interesting? Mitchell was invited to big league camp last season despite never touching AAA.
  25. Lucas O.
    Arraez won the batting title in the AL last year and didn’t even end the season with an .800 OPS.
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