Lucas O.

From 5/1 through the end of the season Suter had a 107 FIP-, a 104 xFIP-, and a 3.88 SIERA. None of those numbers are good. Sure the ERA was good and that's good that he got good production, but none of the underlying numbers look good in that time which when looking towards next year is more important to look at than pure ERA. Those type of guys worked when we had Hader and DW/Knebel/Jeffress locking down the 8th and 9th. We don't have that lockdown 8th inning guy anymore which is why we need to invest in the bullpen this offseason especially considering the BP was a major weakpoint from July on. Would you feel good about going into 2023 with Boxberger being our 8th inning guy?

You're ignoring that he's one of the lowest leverage relievers in baseball. It doesn't matter if he bounces back (which shouldn't be assumed because he's a soft tossing 33 year old who doesn't strike people out). Paying a super low leverage reliever $3M a year when you desperately need to improve your high leverage options is a waste of limited small market resources.

Just god no. He's a 33 year old super low leverage reliever. Giving him a 4 year contract is crazy.

Just for some perspective on Suter. In 2022 he had a 93 ERA- (2nd worst in career), a 110 FIP- (2nd worst in career), a 105 xFIP- (2nd worst in career), a 3.97 SIERA (worst since 2018), and a 0.67 pLI (lowest average leverage index of his career). I get he's a great clubhouse guy, but having probably the second worst season of his career while having the lowest leverage index of his career just isn't great.

I mean I agree with this but there comes a time where you need to weigh the pros and cons. Paying $3M for a super low leverage reliever because he has good clubhouse vibes just makes filling the other 6 bullpen spots that much more important. You're lowering your margin of error in the bullpen by bringing Suter back. The Rays churn through RP and just their overall roster and still manage to have great team chemistry and success.

But the question is why? Why should we pay $3M a year for a low leverage RP. I love Suter as a clubhouse guy. He seems like an awesome person/clubhouse personality, but his pitching role in the BP is highly replaceable and can be filled with a league minimum guy making over 4x less than Suter.

Assuming Chafin declines his player option, I would love for the Brewers to try and sign him in FA. Would be a great high leverage LHP. I think we probably bring Boxberger back. He's been an absolute workhorse the last two years, but I wouldn't be against declining his option and trying to bring in younger high leverage RP through a trade/FA. Bullpen would look like this: 9th - DW 8th - Boxberger replacement 7th - Chafin MR - Cousins, Strzelecki, Milner, Bush LR - Houser/Ashby I'm just very much of the belief that we need to have a much more solid BP next year even if that means spending some money/assets on it.

Cousins started 2022 pitching 7th inning high leverage. He had an elbow injury he probably should have had surgery on but opted not to. Assuming he's healthy throughout the offseason, it's hard to see him not being on the opening day roster in 2023. Suter made $2.7M this year and is arb 3 next year. Sure, he's been dependable, but he also rarely ever pitches in high leverage situations. Of the 144 RP with 50 IP this season Suter had the 15th lowest pLI. Unless he's getting a pay cut, I think the Brewers can fill that spot with a cheaper option. Maybe he returns, I just figured that's a spot the Brewers can save some money on with all the arb raises incoming.

Gustave, Gott and Perdomo no longer have options and Suter has 5 years of service time so he can decline an option. Most of these relievers will be gone because they are out of options/have better players in front of them. Returning BP guys in this situation are Williams, Boxberger, Cousins, Strzelecki, Milner and Bush. Assuming we carry 6 SP that leaves 1 open bullpen spot which should be going towards an incoming high leverage pitcher.

If I had to guess, I could see 13 players currently on our 40 man roster not on the 40 man next season. We currently have 38 spots filled on the 40 man with Sanchez and Jackson on the 60 day IL so technically 40 when they are healthy. SP: Alexander RP: Gott, Gustave, Perdomo, Rogers, Rosenthal, Suter C; Narvaez, Jackson/Severino IF: Hiura, Jace, Reyes OF: McCutchen

Sure but just shows some perspective. It was a disappointing season, but to say it was disgraceful and that people should lose jobs over it shows how far this current FO group and CC have lifted the franchise.

Only 12 seasons with more wins in franchise history and you have people saying this season was disgraceful. Crazy.

Williams, Cousins, Strzelecki, Boxberger, Milner, Bush, and a LHP from the FA market/trade market. I think we could upgrade on Boxberger for a younger more upside high leverage guy.

Corey Seager And Others Who Should Benefit From The Shift Ban (sportsinfosolutions.com) and Brew Crew Ball Mailbag #16: Rowdy Tellez and the shift - Brew Crew Ball highlight some reasons why Rowdy should benefit from the shift ban more than Yelich.

He's still under team control and with the shift ban coming, I think he's due for some offensive improvements. I think next year is the make or break season for him as a Brewer. Although if you can upgrade 1B with a Jose Abreu type signing then absolutely get it done.

This is what I hope is the plan. Get Yelich a 1B glove as well and have him and Rowdy share time between 1B/DH and Yelich can get some occasional starts in the OF.

Yeah Jansen is definitely an upgrade and I have little doubt we would be able to improve his framing (just look at Narvaez framing numbers before he got to Milwaukee). Murphy's poptime is super intriguing though with the bigger bases and pitch clock coming next year having a guy with a cannon behind homeplate would be awesome.

I wouldn't qualify Jansen as a needle mover. He has the potential to be, but he's far from a sure thing. Murphy has a much more proven track record at the plate and he's amazing behind the plate. 87th percentile in framing and 96th percentile in 2B poptime. Jansen is 34th percentile in framing and 46th percentile in 2B poptime.

Who is to say that couldn't be Yelich? Not very difficult to be better than Rowdy over there.

Lauer is less than 4 weeks removed from being taken out of a start and put on the IL due to his arm/elbow feeling like jello. What's the point of letting him pitch the 7th inning when he had zero chance of actually finishing the game?

I wouldn't even give him an offer. He basically offers nothing outside of framing at this point and the Brewers have done a good job improving catcher's framing (just look at Narvaez who was a terrible framer when we traded for him). He's got awful poptime to 2B. He's been awful at the plate and his underlying numbers are horrible. 18% hard hit rate which is 2nd worst in the MLB among hitters with 200 batted ball events.

By giving Yelich a 1B glove in the offseason and telling him to take 500 grounders a day.

1A. Impact Bat 1B. Bullpen upgrades 2. Catcher

They walked the game off before the Phillies game went final I believe and even then you still celebrate walkoffs.

C - Advantage Narvaez and Caratini. Severino and Feliciano are probably upgrades at the plate but both are massive downgrades behind the plate. Nashville started Navaretto at catcher in their playoff game for this reason. Feliciano had 14 passed balls and a 14.8% CS rate (7 percentage points below International league average) in 64 AAA games at catcher. Those are atrocious numbers. 1B - Advantage Tellez pretty easily. Big Jon struck out 28% of the time in AAA and has a career 36% SO rate in his 114 game MLB career. 2B - Advantage Wong pretty easily. Sure Mathias has a 170 wRC+ in Texas but that's with a 36% SO rate and a .406 BABIP. His numbers aren't close to sustainable. SS - Adames pretty easily. He's had a brutal last 10 days but he's been an elite glove at SS and has hit 30 HR this year. 3B - Urias by a landslide because Almonte doesn't even play in the infield. LF - Yelich pretty easily. Like Adames he's had an awful last two weeks but for the year he has a 110 wRC+ with a .353 OBP. Ruiz in his limited 36 PA MLB sample size had a 25 wRC+. CF - I'd probably lean Frelick because I'm sure high on his ability to make contact, but I think Tyrone is current better defensively than Frelick. RF - Pretty easy Renfroe lean for me. Renfroe has a 124 wRC+ this year. I love Wiemer's potential but he will have some growing pains at the MLB level with his violent swing. DH - I don't even like Cutch and disliked the idea of the signing when it was just a rumor but I'd still choose him. Mitchell's got a huge amount of potential (second highest in the system behind Chourio in my opinion) but through his first 60 PA he's rocking a 43% SO rate and has a .556 BABIP plus at DH you are taking away Mitchell's speed in the outfield which is his biggest advantage over Cutch. I get it's a fun exercise to compare but pitching at the MLB level is so far above pitching in AAA, so you're overrating a lot of these AAA players and that's coming from me someone who is overwhelmingly positive and hopeful when it comes to prospects.