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Lucas O.

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Everything posted by Lucas O.

  1. Lucas O.
    The Padres also demoted Hader from closer and had him pitch 4 times in a 21 day timespan. Would Hader have been afforded either of those luxuries to get things right again in Milwaukee? Seems doubtful to me.
  2. Lucas O.
    And yet Rogers ERA as a Brewer is still over 4 runs lower than Hader's as a Padre.
  3. Lucas O.
    Hiura has seen two separate extended playing time periods this year. May 18th to June 25th he played 21 games and had 77 PA. August 17th to September 9th he played 20 games and had 75 PA. His wRC+ in the first 10 games of those extended runs were 172 and 171. His K-rates in those 10 games were 36.8% and 34.3%. His wRC+ in the second 11/10 games of those extended runs were 58 and 44. His K-rates in thise 11/10 games were 53.8% and 40.0%. So in both of Hiura's extended playtime runs he started extremely hot then faded and starting striking out much more. He hasn't done a very good job of justifying extended playing time.
  4. Lucas O.
    Among hitters with 200 PA Hiura is 2nd in HR/FB and one of only two players with a HR/FB rate over 30%. Here are the players with 10 highest HR/FB rates in baseball and their Max EV percentile. Name - HR/FB rate, Max EV percentile Aaron Judge - 36.2%, 99th Keston Hiura - 35.0%, 69th Oneil Cruz - 29.3%, 100th William Contreras - 29.2%, 97th Giancarlo Stanton - 28.9%, 100th Yordan Alvarez - 27.6%, 97th Michael Harris II - 26.5%, 88th Trayce Thompson (lol) 26.2%, 80th Byron Buxton - 24.3%, 92nd Mike Trout - 23.6%, 95th Hiura has always been on the higher side of HR/FB rate with a 23.9% career average but he's upped that level this year to Judge level despite having a 69th percentile Max EV. I think it is safe to say that Hiura probably couldn't maintain such a prodigious HR/FB rate with everyday playing time considering his physical limitations. If Hiura's HR/FB rate was his career average he would have 10 HR instead of 14. If you give him 2 doubles and 2 outs instead of those 4 HR his OPS would drop from .780 to .722. People talk about his amazing numbers against RHP but he is rocking a 44% HR/FB rate against RHP. The next closest player with 100 PA is Judge at 35.4%. I'm guessing the Brewers just don't think those numbers are sustainable for Hiura over extended playing time.
  5. Lucas O.
    Hiura has amazing numbers against RHP which is certainly awesome, but those numbers are on the back of an unheard of 44% HR/FB rate against RHP. The next closest among players with at least 100 PA is Aaron Judge at 35%...Hiura's HR/FB rates put him as a prodigious power threat despite a max EV in the 69th percentile. There's just so many red flags in his game between the ridiculous HR/FB rates, ridiculous K-rates, and the lack of anything to fall back on (defense) if the bat falls off.
  6. Lucas O.
    One thing I have loved about Ruiz is how good he is at bunting...like he seriously is one of the best bunters I have ever seen. Such a nice wrinkle that isn't very prevalent in the game anymore.
  7. Lucas O.
    And yes Hiura has a 118 wRC+ but he's also one of 2 MLB players with a HR/FB rate over 30%. The other is Aaron Judge. It's unlikely that Hiura can maintain such a prodigious HR/FB rate over a larger sample size considering his career HR/FB rate is over 10% lower than what it has been this season. If Hiura's HR/FB rate was stabilized with his career average he would have 10 HR this year. If you take 4 HR away and turn them into say 2 doubles and 2 outs his slashline goes from .231/.318/.462 for a .780 OPS to .221/.309/.413 for a .722 OPS
  8. Lucas O.
    Let's play a fun game. We will do the highest K-rate among hitters at certain PA numbers. 500 PA - Eugenio Suarez 30.8% 400 PA - Chris Taylor 36.0% 300 PA - Joey Gallo 38.8% 250 PA - Oneil Cruz 38.8% 200 PA - Keston Hiura 41.9% (only one other player, Brett Phillips, has 200 PA and a K-rate over 40%) Guys who strike out as much as Hiura does do not play every day. Only 11 players in the MLB have 50 PA and a K-rate over 40%. 9 of the 11 have a wRC+ under 100. Dermis Garcia has 79 PA and a 140 wRC+ with a K-rate of 44.3% but his .438 BABIP likely speak to him far overperforming his expected results.
  9. Lucas O.
    Adames is an elite defensive SS and could end the year as a 5 WAR player. He's by far our best position player.
  10. Lucas O.
    It was the 16th that he was late switched to DH.
  11. Lucas O.
    There was a late lineup change on Saturday or Friday (can't remember which) that moved Wiemer from RF to DH. I'm guessing it's just something minor going on for him right now.
  12. Lucas O.
    They had to pitch him today. Normal rest (4 days) puts him pitching on the 19th, 24th, 29th, and 4th which would make his normal rest the 9th (game 3 of WC round). If he got pushed to tomorrow he could still pitch 4 times in regular season on normal rest but wouldn’t be available in the WC round on normal rest
  13. Lucas O.
    Kind of wish we held back Burnes start another day and went bullpen day today. Would hate for Burnes to pitch a good game tonight only for us to lose because Scherzer pitched slightly better. Really makes it feel like today is a must win because the pitching matchup is heavily against us the next two days.
  14. Lucas O.
    I'm surprised more people don't acknowledge this. He played basically every game from 8/17 to 9/9 and had a 103 wRC+ with a 37% K-rate. The last 10 days of that 3 week stretch of playing he had a 45 wRC+ with with a 39% K-rate. Seemingly every time he is thrown into more playing time he begins to struggle.
  15. Lucas O.
    Frelick had a HBP so his on-base streak continued.
  16. Lucas O.
    It's a big leap from A+ to AA especially for an 18 year old who was doing great at A+, but wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire like he did in A ball. Jasson Dominguez, the number 2 prospect in the Yankees system, is over a year older than Chourio and was similarly called up for the final week of AA. He's currently slashing .063/.167/.188 through 4 games.
  17. Lucas O.
    He's pretty much has the same fWAR/150 this year as he did as a Brewer last year at 5.15 fWAR/150. He is doing it in different ways. Last year it was all offense driving his WAR, this year it has been more of a balance of defense and offense driving his WAR. People are likely referring to the regression at the plate going from 136 wRC+ to 113 wRC+ when they talk about his regression.
  18. Lucas O.
    I mean you are arguing that Burnes has been a top 10 SP this season with stats that are predictive stats not evaluative stats (That article went over FIP being much better in evaluating current performance than xFIP and SIERA)???
  19. Lucas O.
    Again xFIP and SIERA should not be used to evuluate current performance. I can't take your opinions seriously when you continue to use them despite me showing you why they shouldn't be used.
  20. Lucas O.
    I'm packing their bags first thing in the morning lol. No ill will to Yelich because he's still an above average, dare I say good, player but it's just hard having that contract on the books with the type of production he is putting out.
  21. Lucas O.
    What metrics do you want to use? Among pitchers with at least 200 balls in play (to filter out RP) Burnes is 19th in xwOBA and 24th in wOBA compared to being 1st in both last year. Burnes is 14th in K%-BB% this year after being 1st last year. I'm not sure he has been a top 10 SP in baseball this year. If you can find some metrics that put him top 10 I would love to see them, but I can't seem to find them. He's still a very good SP but going from by far the best SP in the game to fringe top 10 SP is a huge falloff and his falloff has been less dramatic than pretty much the entire rest of our pitching staff.
  22. Lucas O.
    First off xFIP and SIERA really shouldn't be used to evaluate current production. They are both tools best used as predictors than as evaluators like ERA+ and FIP. (Going Deep: The Relative Value of FIP, xFIP and SIERA - Pitcher List). Also Burnes has definitely fallen off in both xFIP and SIERA this year as well. From 2020 to 2021 Burnes was 1st in both xFIP and SIERA. His xFIP was 2.48 and the next closest was Cole at 3.06. His SIERA was 2.76 and the next closes was Cole at 3.01. This year Burnes xFIP and SIERA are 2.96 and 2.94 which are very far behind the leaders at 2.31 and 2.54
  23. Lucas O.
    Mitchell after tonight has a 72 wRC+ while also having the 5th best WPA (winning probability added) among the position players. He has been very Orlando Arcia'n with his struggles at the plate seemingly no longer appearing in the biggest moments.
  24. Lucas O.
    Burnes went from being the best SP in baseball the last two years (other than deGrom but not counting him because of lack of innings) to like a top 15 SP this year. He's 15th in ERA and 14th in FIP this year compared to 1st in both over the previous two years. That's a pretty substantial fall of for him. The injuries have absolutely hurt, but the whole staff has regressed so it isn't just the injuries to blame. Here is a SP comparison between 2021 and 2022. Burnes ERA+ 170 to 134 (36 point drop) Woodruff ERA+ 161 to 117 (44 point drop) Freddy ERA+ 147 to 116 (31 point drop) Houser ERA+ 128 to 86 (42 point drop...and will be more after this start tonight) Lauer ERA+ 130 to 102 (28 point drop) Brett Anderson ERA+ 98 to Ashby ERA+ 87 (11 point drop) That's a cumulative ERA+ drop of 192 points from our 6 SP last year to our 6 SP this year. Obviously you would expect some regression after last year but nobody could have planned for this. In 2021 those 6 SP also started in 155 of our 162 games. This year those 6 SP have started 129 of our 144 games.
  25. Lucas O.
    Good to see that both of their recoveries went well. Uribe especially with him being Rule 5 eligible this offseason.
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