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Lucas O.

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Everything posted by Lucas O.

  1. Lucas O.
    It was the Rosenthal special. ”In what has become an annual rite of autumn, the Milwaukee Brewers are fretting over their payroll, according to people briefed on their plans. The possibility exists that the team might need to subtract from their roster in order to add.”
  2. Lucas O.
    The Brewers year end 40-man payroll in 2025 according to Cot’s was $131M so they were right there in the range you want them to be.
  3. Lucas O.
    % of revenue to payroll is just a really pointless number to care about. There’s much more spending to running a baseball team than just payroll. Seeing that chart get so much traction is really annoying. To make it easier, I’m just going to refer to all non-payroll expenditures as overhead. These expenditures probably have some variation across the league but this spread is probably pretty small. A team that has $600M in revenue and say $200M in overhead has 66% of their revenue left over for payroll. A team that has $350M in revenue and say $150M in overhead has 57% of their revenue left over for payroll. The lower your revenue is the lower your % of revenue spent on payroll is going to be because you’re spending a higher % of revenue on overhead. If you look at that chart for example and look at the Dodgers revenue minus payroll and compare it to the Brewers revenue minus payroll the numbers are basically identical.
  4. Lucas O.
    Ken Rosenthal does this crap literally every single offseason with the Brewers. This is nothing new.
  5. Lucas O.
    I don't even think Cairone getting to A+ is particularly realistic. None of the Brewers recently drafted HS pitchers have made it to A+ in their first pro season.
  6. Lucas O.
    I don't think there's any world where Tampa trades Caminero. He's 22 and just put up a 40 HR and 4.6 fWAR season. I don't think any MLB team would trade a player like that.
  7. Lucas O.
    Honestly my reading of him being lower rated is mostly because he's lower on Dinges bat than most. Seems he really doesn't like how long Dinges swing is. He projects 40 hit, 45 power. Baseball America has 45 hit, 60 power for Dinges.
  8. Lucas O.
    I love Longenhagen's reviews. He's really in a class of his own when it comes to thoroughness and thoughtful evaluations. He goes into such depth and like @mudbutt said his evaluations feel more critical which is probably for the best because the vast majority of prospects fail. I also like that he really seems to avoid groupthink. Not that all his evaluations are correct but I wish we had some more varied opinions on prospects and less groupthink.
  9. Lucas O.
    Scooter do you look at the other team's MLB roster before you talk about trades? Detroit's starting catcher put up 4 fWAR last year and has 5 more years of team control. Why would they want Jeferson Quero?
  10. Lucas O.
    You missed why this makes sense for Christian Yelich. He has both a full trade clause and 10-5 rights. He would need to accept a trade. Why would he want to go to the Angels?
  11. Lucas O.
    Yeah Benge destroyed the minors last year. His AAA numbers sucked so I went and looked at the under the hood numbers and they are great as well. .272/.356/.522 expected slash line, .376 xwOBA, 20% whiff, 92.1 Avg EV, 53.5% hard hit, 15.5% barrel. Those are pretty darn good underlying numbers for a guy who had a 53 wRC+ in AAA.
  12. Lucas O.
    I don't think that's a realistic offer. I don't think you can get a Benge level prospect for 1 year of Freddy Peralta. I've seen Benge as high as 15 in Top 100 lists.
  13. Lucas O.
    This is a pretty tough mindset to take with a small market team. Brewers basically don't pay the market rate for any of their players because they are either pre-arb, arb, or have signed extensions below market value. Any FA you sign to a market rate deal is going to be a higher proportion of our team salary because they are being fairly paid for their contribution.
  14. Lucas O.
    Woodruff was non-tendered after the 2023 season.
  15. Lucas O.
    I think you needed just a couple more laughing face emojis to really get your point across
  16. Lucas O.
    Adam McCalvy has very clearly said Woodruff's buyout was baked into their 2025 costs so no it does not in fact make it $32M against this year's payroll.
  17. Lucas O.
    I'd even go a step further. His contract was structured as a 1 year $17.5M deal spread across 2 seasons and a buyout.
  18. Lucas O.
    Woodruff put up 1.8 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR for that $17.5M. He didn't do nothing. Also I'd like to add that comparing a 1-year deal AAV to a 5 year deal AAV is a pretty bad faith comparison.
  19. Lucas O.
    Yeah I don't particularly feel one way or another about Woodruff accepting the QO. I mean obviously happy to see Woodruff stay a Brewer just more talking big picture thinking. I think the idea this hurts their ability to make moves this offseason is exaggerated. It's not like Brewers were going to be big game hunting if Woodruff declined the QO.
  20. Lucas O.
    I think Keller will probably be out of the Brewers typical reliever price range but if he isn't I would definitely be down for the Brewers to go after him.
  21. Lucas O.
    Cam Devanney is headed to the NPB.
  22. Lucas O.
    One thing on Durbin that has me slightly hesitant is his absurd HBP rate this year. Looking at his minor league career and he did have a lot of HBP but the rate was much lower than it was this year. MiLB - 1274 PA, 43 HBP for a 3.4% HBP rate MLB - 506 PA, 24 HBP for a 4.7% HBP rate I don't think it's likely that he can maintain a near 5% HBP rate going forward so he's probably going to need to see his BA/SLG or BB-rate to tick up a bit if he's going to maintain his offensive production.
  23. Lucas O.
    Durbin was regarded as solid defensively at 2B so it was more of a question if he could translate that to 3B so I wouldn't really say that's similar to Black who doesn't have any defensive home. You hope he could handle LF but that's still a bit of a mystery. I wasn't impressed with his play in LF in AAA last year.
  24. Lucas O.
    Yeah I don't get the sentiment of people saying Twins would need to eat money to get a good return. $15M a year of an injury prone Buxton is fair value at worst and more realistically it's a bargain. He's put up under 3 fWAR 2 times in the last 7 years and one of those years was the 60 game season in 2020.
  25. Lucas O.
    I've been asking for years so if someone figures it out let me know
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