Redd Vencher
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Everything posted by Redd Vencher
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They had their 4th highest payroll in franchise history last year. Spending $6 M on a guy who's struggled with shoulder issues the last 2 seasons is tough to do with other raises.
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He was nontendered because he was set to make like $5-6 M in his final arb season. The financial comittment is going to be low.
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Only on one list was he in the top 50. The other lists had him at 69. His peripherals didn't support the 3.01 ERA, and he has a pretty lengthy injury history that probably keeps his value down. He's topped 100 IP twice in his professional career. 100.1 IP in 2018 and 110.1 IP in 2022. There's still a chance he ends up in the bullpen longterm because he can't handle a SP workload.
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The idea would be getting a longer term SP for the post 2024 rotation, and using one of our short term SP to address other parts of the roster. Mitchell for Cabrera and Houser for Santander would be a potential way to go about it. With the addition of Miley, you could trade both of Lauer and Houser in this scenario. Current post 2024 rotation. Peralta, Ashby, Gasser, Junk, and Small Potential post 2024 rotation Peralta, Ashby, Cabrera, Gasser, Junk/Small If you could get Woodruff on a Castillo type extension, that would really help.
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The idea would be getting a longer term SP for the post 2024 rotation, and using one of our short term SP to address other parts of the roster. Mitchell for Cabrera and Houser for Santander would be a potential way to go about it. With the addition of Miley, you could trade both of Lauer and Houser in this scenario. Current post 2024 rotation. Peralta, Ashby, Gasser, Junk, and Small Potential post 2024 rotation Peralta, Ashby, Cabrera, Gasser, Junk/Small If you could get Woodruff on a Castillo type extension, that would really help.
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I thought Arnold signed a 5 year extension last offseason. Am I just misremembering that?
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Was Wong less risky? He set career best offensive seasons in his 2 years with the Brewers. Does he maintain that in 2023 or does he return to Cardinals Wong without the elite defense?
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Hiura has a consistent hole in his swing dating back to his rookie season that he hasn't shown he can close yet. Until that happens, he's going to continue to struggle making consistent contact.
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Based on the actual performance, those 3 were better last year. Based on the expected performance stats from statcast, Winker was better than all 3 last year. He had a BABIP .046 points below his career average last season. His career numbers dwarf their career numbers.
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Last year's version of Winker is still an above average hitter.
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wRC+ is based on linear weights, so all those events have a run value. These are the Fangraphs ones from 2015 relative to outs in their glossary, but they will work to illustrate the basic point. BB 0.55 HBP 0.57 1B 0.70 2B 1.00 3B 1.27 HR 1.65 The proportion of each of those states against the run environment is what gives us wRC+. A player with a lower wRC+ isn't going to provide more than one with a higher wRC+ in terms of batted outcomes. Where a difference that would come up on offense would be their ability on the basepaths, which isn't considered in wRC+. Sequencing on offense can help teams not as good by wRC+ to outperform it, but there's no good way to plan for good sequencing of batted outcomes. It's not something you can plan for.
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Steamer has Urias putting up a 110 wRC+ while he put up a 111 wRC+ the last 2 sseasons. (112 and 110) It's saying he's going to be the same player he's been. Winker's 122 wRC+ is a nice bounce back projection even if it's a little worse than his career 126 wRC+. I would bet the over on the power output for a LH batter like Winker in Am Fam assuming his hitting bounces back. Expecting a projection system to project more SB based on the new rule changes is just something these systems can't do because they're using past data to project future performance. PA is another one you don't have to worry about in a projection system. If Frelick hits that 111 wRC+ projection, he's getting WAY more than 131 PA.
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@jay87shot @Robocaller The Defense component on Fangraphs includes positional adjustment. A fulltime DH is going to have a very low defense component. Per 1458 innings adjustments, so divide by that and multiply by the innings at the position. C +12.5 1B -12.5 2B +2.5 SS +7.5 3B +2.5 LF -7.5 CF +2.5 RF -7.5 DH -17.5 @jay87shot Projections use past performance to predict future performance. Keston Hiura has had 246+ PA 3 of his 4 seasons in the big leagues, so that's what the projection system is spitting out for playing time. It also means it isn't going to throw out new numbers based on rule changes. If you want the projections adjusted to playing time, you take Fangraphs' Depth Chart where they adjust the PA to the season total.
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The Brewers offense was 6th in 4+ and 5+ run games and T-9th in fewest times held to 2 runs or less. Hard to be much more consistent than that. Even the Yankees weren't that consistent, and they were the only other team to average 5+ runs.
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A 50 grade prospect is usually on a top 100 list. We had 0 of those entering 2020. The one who would have made the list had he not used his rookie status in 2019 was Grisham, and we moved him for a top 25 prospect and Lauer. Pre 2021 we had Turang and Mitchell crack the bottom of the top 100. Given Drew Rasmussen was able to pry Adames away, we can add him, but we traded him like you wanted. 2021 was the ascent of Joey Wiemer, but he only made 1 preseason top 100 going into 2022. Brice Turang fell off and Mitchell barely held on at 100 on one list for 2022. Sal Frelick couldn't be traded until after 2021, so all in all what did you want to move that you think could have nabbed the big go for it piece you wanted before 2022?
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With all the trades and graduations, the Brewers farm wasn't good by the end of 2019. The quick turnaround on the rebuild meant they never built the depth to keep making big Yelich like trades. They were a bottom 5 farm until 2022, and now they're ranked between 13 and 19. The Brewers were close to a Corey Ray led package for Quintana in 2017 before the Cubs came in last minute with the Eloy package. They were in on Machado in 2018, but the Orioles wanted Burnes in the trade while the Brewers were offering a package around Phillips and Ortiz. I think balking at including Burnes turned out all right. They also tried to acquire Bryan Reynolds at the deadline in 2021, but I don't know how they thought that was going to happen with the view of their farm system at the time.
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The Swanson ask is just comical to me for a guy with a career 94 wRC+ 16.4 fWAR 14.5 bWAR. Adames has a 111 wRC+ 13.7 fWAR 15.5 bWAR and 2 more years to build on that. He's much closer to Turner at the same point in their careers than Swanson. (Turner 119 wRC+ 18.5 fWAR 18.3 bWAR)
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@monty57 The streaky comment about the offense I don't necessarily agree with. They were 6th in baseball in both 4+ (97) and 5+ (78) run games and T-9th fewest games of with 2 runs or less (48). Cardinals were 2nd (100), 2nd (83), and T-8th (47) in those categories. Obviously, park factors are different, so that is much better offense from the Cardinals even if the number of games is close. A fun fact is the Yankees, the only team besides the Dodgers to average more than 5 runs a game, were 9th (93), 5th (79), and T-16th (52).
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Moving payroll im 2023 does nothing for future payroll that extensions would cover, so number 1 is just a wrong premise to begin with. Winker is that potential impact bat for the lineup. Renfroe's 2022 was the best offensive season of his career with a 124 wRC+. Winker's career average season is 126 wRC+, which is 10% better than Renfroe's career 116 wRC+. Winker's best production was a 147 wRC+ is basically 2022 Juan Soto (145), Julio Rodriguez (146), and Yandy Diaz (146). Even his career wost season in 2022 was still a 108 wRC+ and 10% better than McCutchen gave us. (98) Using WAR when discussing whether an offensive improvement is made. Since Winker is going to be the primary DH, it's highly unlikely he produces a 2+ WAR because fulltime DH lose 1.5-2.0 WAR just for being fulltime DH's. The WAR being made up is going to come from what we play in RF and 2B or depending on where Urias plays.
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We've pushed Jason Alexander further down the depth chart. It's hard to get a more proven veteran who could make starts when the Brewers are 6 deep in the rotation already, but improving that 7, 8, and 9 starter goes a long way to solving last year's problem.
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We've pushed Jason Alexander further down the depth chart. It's hard to get a more proven veteran who could make starts when the Brewers are 6 deep in the rotation already, but improving that 7, 8, and 9 starter goes a long way to solving last year's problem.
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It fits the oppoertunistic angle they go for. Find the the value where you can get it instead of feeling forced to overpay for something obvious.
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It fits the oppoertunistic angle they go for. Find the the value where you can get it instead of feeling forced to overpay for something obvious.
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They talked about improving the pitching depth especially for the rotation earlier in the offseason, and they've done that so far.
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They talked about improving the pitching depth especially for the rotation earlier in the offseason, and they've done that so far.
