Jake McKibbin

Some pitch shapes on Jacob Morrison, the whole thread is a fascinating read! Seems like the curveball and cutter play far better as a North/South shape and he finds commanding them a whole lot easier. More distinct difference between the sinker too, and with some big fastball ride, I'm a good fan of this whole pick

As a little fun quote from the father of one Josh Adamczewski who just messaged me this: "I can tell you what I know about Peyton Niksch. Pitched at a local HS in NW Indiana and took his team to a State Championship a few years back. Went head to head vs Andrew Dutkanych who was set to be a 1st round pick that year, but pulled his name out at the last minute to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. Niksch was arguably the better pitcher in their head to head. Everything he throws, Moves!! I was surprised he didn't go somewhere bigger out of HS, but he had a small, lanky frame. I haven't seen him lately to know if he put on some weight, but did see he committed to Purdue out of Kankakee CC, until the Brewers signed him."

@Brock Beauchamp can we take a look at this? I'm not entirely sure but we'll get it updated asap!

Also if anyone wants to toy about with this for slot values and bonus pools, feel free to PM your email and I'll send you a copy of the sheet! Just let us know at the end what your final product looks like

One thought as to how the Brewers might choose to spend their cash, with a couple of factors (and the 11-20 picks are really a random guess) - Andrew Fischer gets late first round money as opposed to mid-late first round, capped at 75% of slot value as he attended the MLB Draft Combine (similar to Braylon Payne and Blake Burke in 2024) - Brady Ebel is similar, getting second round value at pick 32, but still above where most consensus boards had him ranked. Capped at 75% of value as he attended the MLB Draft combine and it seems a reasonable fee to pay. - JD Thompson should be under slot, though I haven't gone as heavy here, in part in case Ebel/Fischer are slightly above the 75% mark, but there could be more savings here. I'm also aware Frank Cairone could get more, and we'll get to that now - Cairone is in a similar situation to Bryce Meccage in 2025, albeit without the big fastball and the changeup that showed lashes to blend the package together. He has shown improving stuff, great extension, and a real feel for spinning the ball, so honestly I could see him getting a bigger bonus than the $1.5m, especially as the Brewers can't afford to leave that pick unsigned or they will lose it from the 2026 draft. Thomspon could sign for less, and pass more to Cairone but overall I'm probably slightly on the optimistic side in the aggregate from the first two rounds - Jacob Morrison also attended the MLb Draft combine but shouldn't be expected to be a tough sign as a third year college arm and not ranked in the top 150 of several draft boards. He's above expectation and a college arm, so likely getting the 75% slot value here - Sean Episcope is interesting, his injury may go a variety of ways so I've settled at slot value. He was flying early in the season, and could go back in 4th year with an intention to dominate and force his way up draft boards, or he could be happy to come into pr ball with an organization like the Brewers. I'd lean under slot, but he does have some consideration to returning and increasing his value based on performance. I've taken a prudent view here given my slight optimism in earlier rounds - Daniel Dickinson is likely in and around slot value here, falling further than expected but that injury certainly hurt him down the stretch. I can;t see the Brewers going over slot for him, as a college 2B profile, but I also don't think they'll get him for much under slot either - Josiah Ragsdale may be available under slot,a college outfielder without surpeme power production and there's a suspicion that defensively he'll end up more in left field as he doesn't field his position that well despite good speed. Fit the Brewers mold nicely, but not huge slot savings here despite not attending the combine - Hayden Vucinovich is likely to be a little over slot, though not by a huge margin. I may be $100k or so off on this, as he has a lot of tools the Brewers will enjoy working with but also not a ton of track record which may dampen his leverage. - Andrew Healy is a junior from college and again likely to be an under slot deal. He performed excellently in 2023, but has regressed in 2024 and 2025 to the point that he was in the transfer portal looking for opportunities elsewhere. On the back of an ERA over 7, this shouldn't be a difficult sign - Braylon Owens is a college senior, already hindering his draft bonus. He's a solid arm with a five pitch mix, including the three fastball combination and has consistently gotten results, but the college senior element of this should allow the brewers to strike a deal on the low end of slot values. As for the rounds 11-20, the Brewers don't traditionally go over the $900k mark, they didn;t last year anyhow, but it is a guessing game. Likely that picks 11-12 sign and after that its how do they spend their oney. My impression is that they want an athletic catcher and if they can't sign Brendan Brock, they'll pivot to Rylan Mills on a cheaper deal and spread out the remainder to perhaps add a little extra incentive to Dominic Cadiz, but I think they'll want to ensure they have Cooper, Lauridsen and Underwood in the mix in two weeks time I'm likely horribly wrong, and I think that they may have to pass the $1m mark for one of either Brock or Cadiz who both appear to be high flying but time will tell!

Now that the picks are in, we have two weeks to cover all things signing related. Feel free to peruse the draft tracker as well! As with the last few years, the Brewers have gone heavily into high school talent in rounds 11-20 which will go a long way to grading their overall draft. If you find out any news on signings, or want to discuss them, please do so here!. I'll also continually update a signing bonus spreadsheet when we start getting bonuses filtering through Here's how we start off (the cell values for the bonus pool will be filled in as we find out about signing bonuses)

We will indeed! I also have a spreadsheet set up already to track the signing bonuses and slot money available to the crew with each signing!

I;m shocked to still be awake at midnight after covering the first pick last night, but here we are. Its been a fun draft folks! The signing window closes at 5 pm on the 28th July I believe, and it seems the Brewers draft will very much depend on the number/quality of signings from 11-20 while they certainly have a lot of solid picks from rounds 1-10. Getting 4 or even 5 of those late rounders would take it from a solid draft to a potentially great one in my eyes. I'm fairly confident they'll grab at least one of the catchers as a priority but thats a gut feeling

A similar situation to the one @wiguy94 mentioned above, Ma'Kale Hodlen is an Alabama commit and hihgly unlikely to sign without a heck of a bonus He's a two way athlete, showing talent on the mound and with some real pop in his bat to boot

Good lord that's some production from Bentley

We appear to have reached the stage where teams have slightly given up and are drafting the undraftable high schoolers just on the off chance (eg Cameron Appenzeller to Mariners)

And for the penultimate pick we have Chase Bentley from IMG academy as a RHP at 6'3, 215lbs A Texas Aggie commit, here are some details from March: Interesting to see mention of a changeup to both sides of the plate with feel for a high school arm, very much a ground ball fastball that just drops on hitters like a bowling ball, but the secondaries have a ton of break and look like solid swing and miss offerings

I really like his ability to shorten up and adjust in both of these swings

Another catcher in Rylan Mills, signed to South Eastern Missouri Topped out at 110.4 mph exit velocities in the cage before the season Tons of praise for his makeup and, another common trait, a cannon of an arm from behind the plate. With the ABS incoming, the Brewers have certainly favoured strong arms back there as an absolute must for any drafted catchers

I think I like the raw tools here enough, but not to the same degree as any of the picks 11-15, so he may be a filer pick for the lab if they can't sign some of the more impressive resume's

Luke Roupe is the 443rd ranked selection from BA. 6'2, 205 lbs and old for a HS (almost 19) his fastball sits low 90's and tops out around 94 mph. A really tight slider with sharp movement is his calling card with a feel for commanding it and spinning it that plays well. As with nearly every HS arm, he's also developing a changeup to fill out his repertoire against left hander hitters. He's committed to South Carolina Low arm slot form the above graphics, and I believe that makes this more of a cutter than a four seamer, but once again see the spin rate. Crazy stuff. If this is his primary fastball, he will need better spin efficiency to miss above the barrel with this, but you can see what the Brewers like here. Different arm slot, feel for spin. Rinse. Repeat.

Also, once again, look at the spin rates. I know the classifications aren't great, but all the curveballs classified are curves and he's averaging over 2900 RPM's. Real feel to spin the ball once more

Classifications are way up the left here so I'll do it manually: The curveball with 15-20" of sweep and -10" of IVB looks brutal, while there appears to also be a four seamer around 15" of IVB (up to 20" of a cut ride potentially in the right hands side?!?!?) and a cutter and sinker to boot. Solid pitch mix, and probably someone the brewers are hoping to clean up mechanically for some big time upgrades

That's whats giving me some hope here, though I've found some things he was committed to join Oklahoma in Dec '24 but it seems that never happened for some reason. Can't work out why

I dont care if this is metal, we're talking about a high schooler hitting a pitch 430 ft

Here's a thought Say the Brewers have $1.5m in slot savings coming into these later rounds Plus the 5% overage that lets them get another $600k And the $150k per player before that bonus kicks in We could realistically pay $540k to five different players which could do the job, especially if some are less high priority than others. If you narrow that to four, we're talking just shy of $700k per player on average which certainly seems doable Lets dream baby

Absolutely a pipe dream, but I'll go dreaming with you big man! I'm waiting for the really high pick that signifies we're in the "backup" pick section of this draft rather than the "we think we can sign you within our budget" Also interesting is how the Brewers, due to Levonas, went heavier on college arms last year at the start of the draft (and Caedmon Parker still didn't sign) whereas all in on HS players this time around

I mean they can't sign all these guys. Surely not. But is it wrong to hope?