Jake McKibbin

https://x.com/ChourioRBW/status/1959181033619763409?t=_QfomA5F4BjTWiEhCtaPlA&s=09

He'll still be a rookie next season, and six years of team control remaining after that. I think the first step is to get him to Triple A and see if Pratt can play his way into the conversation. He'll have to play incredibly well, and if he does, thats when the difficult decision begins

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Joey Ortiz's injury may be a worst-case scenario for the Milwaukee Brewers. The one position where they have a very limited assortment of depth is shortstop. Every other position appears stocked with at least a capable reserve, either on their 26-man roster or with their Triple-A affiliate in Nashville. Ortiz's bat has been polarizing, at times producing hard line drives to the opposite field and at other times becoming a pop-up machine, but his defense over the last few months has been outstanding. His first step has been more on time and his range has improved to the point where he may be one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball over the past couple of months. The way the Brewers value that infield defense, it's a critical loss, if Ortiz is sidelined for any significant length of time. Right now, that does seem possible. Andruw Monasterio has filled in for Ortiz this season on occasion and, surprisingly, has looked capable in the six hole—although he doesn't inspire a ton of confidence defensively over a larger sample size. In all honesty, his plate appearances might be better than Ortiz's, especially in terms of his ball/strike recognition, and he should be a capable short-term solution. The team doesn't need to tap an inexperienced, low-ceiling backup like Freddy Zamora (whose bat is unlikely to play at all in the major leagues) or Ethan Murray (a capable utility infielder with great defensive showings this season, but still raw in Triple A). Here's where Cooper Pratt comes in. If the Brewers want to succeed in October, you can bet that a strong defense will play a big role in that. It's no coincidence that the turnaround in Ortiz's defensive fortunes has coincided with the recent run of form from the Brewers, with plays like this leading the way. Andruw Monasterio, on his best day, isn't capable of this kind of play: Just to be clear, Pratt should NOT be promoted straight to the big leagues, but he was likely to get a promotion to Triple A soon, anyway. That decision should be sped up if Ortiz is out for the rest of the season. Pratt has a minor-league Gold Glove and, by all accounts, has become one of the best shortstops in the minor leagues. It's plays like these in critical moments that can have big implications in playoff baseball: The bat also seems to be coming around. Pratt doesn't have big bat speed, but there's more power to be tapped into from his frame. Some of that appears to be bearing fruit of late, with tweaks to his leg kick that are helping him be on time for the 93+ mph fastballs he struggled with earlier in the season. Aram Leighton of Just Baseball highlighted Pratt's struggles against any form of velocity in a pre-season podcast, and the changes below may illustrate why those happened—and why it's less of a concern now. Back in spring training, Pratt was finding ways to get the good part of the bat on the ball, but the coil in his front hip was making him slightly late getting through the hitting zone. Contrast that with his more recent power surges, and you can see that, although he still has the leg kick, he doesn't rotate excessively, and is finding himself out in front and pulling a lot of fly balls. The exit velocities haven't been massive, but the balls have gone a long, long way out of the park (similar to some of the changes Matt Shaw has made to unlock himself since the All-Star break). Note that one of these is Pratt turning on and crushing one of those aforementioned 93+ mph fastballs. Pratt has also made strides in his chase rate this season, seeing considerable improvement in his rolling 120-pitch sample. Ideally, the Brewers would like to give Pratt more time to see if the changes he's made are more than just a small-sample burst. If Ortiz is out for the season, however, they may not have that luxury, and with tangible changes on top of Pratt's improved swing decisions, they should consider pushing him aggressively to see how these stack up against Triple-A opposition. If the power output and improved batted-ball quality continue at the higher level, he may be primed for an opportunity in mid-September. The expanded rosters (and potentially having the division clinched by that point) allow the Brewers some luxury in testing the waters with Pratt. His defensive acumen, combined with a higher ceiling with the bat than the available alternatives at Triple A, would say the Brewers should at least give him a shot of forcing his way into the playoff picture. At worst, Pratt gets to sample Triple-A pitching slightly earlier than intended and hits a roadblock. The best case is, he takes to it like a duck to water. For a Brewers organization who love depth and options, it seems like a no-brainer. Hopefully, Ortiz's injury is relatively mild and this will be moot, but it's good to think proactively in moments like these. What do you think of pushing Cooper Pratt to Triple A in the wake of Joey Ortiz's injury? Do you think his simplified pre-swing mechanics are significant enough to gamble on? Do you see a route to him earning opportunities in September with the big league club? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

Brice Turang had 5 fWAR last year on basically league average hitting due to his efforts on the basepaths and his ridiculous defense. If he can find that defensive sparkle again alongside this potent form of his bat, you could be looking at a 7 win player. Yes prospects are shiny and new, but to expect them to put up 5-7 win seasons off the bat, with any regularity, is crazy no matter how much shine they have. You should also factor in there's a very real chance Pena may end up in the outfield, but I'd say if Turang plays at this level for a few seasons it would take a monumental offer to pry him from the Brewers I say this more because we can get totally carried away sometimes by prospects without realising just how valuable our current cohort are. For the Brewers, no player is off the table, but it would take a big offer. Turan has eight home runs in just 22 days of August. That's quite ludicrous output, and if its anyway sustainable, you may have an MVP candidate on your hands

I was thinking the exact same for this weekend. They'll want to push Woody out to five days rest, and Patrick seems perfectly set up to help that. The worry is if its another short start from him, but he did get sharper as the game progressed against the Cubs. Its been an odd series for the starters. Freddy was great, and I actually don't think Miz was that bad, he just got a lesson in maintaining your focus and keeping your foot on the throat when you're dominating. Once you lose your rhythm its so difficult to get it back, but he did in the end. I'd need to see a couple more poor starts from him before assessing if he's lost t gains he took earlier in the season. As for Woody and Priester, those were strange. Priester didn't seem comfortable at all with his sinker and was flying open, more like the Priester of yesteryear, but hopefully that's an easy fix to dial him back in. Woodruff hasn't been that nibbly for a while either. Hopefully both can pound the zone over their next few starts and get a little length because, as you say, its desperately needed. Carlos Rodriguez will likely get to finish the game behind Quintana on Friday and give the rest of the pen a breather before being sent down for a Patrick return on Sunday

I'm well aware that, having posted this, Imanaga may go seven shutout and dot the edges of the strike zone all day. Hopefully the Brewers can tag him, especially if the wind is neutral

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images Tobias Myers's changeup was a key factor behind his breakout in 2024. Here was a pitcher whose fastball could survive at the top of the strike zone, thanks to big induced vertical break (IVB, or "Rise") and some velocity gains, but was quite hittable if it dropped down in the strike zone. His high arm slot meant that the IVB didn't play as well as the raw stuff numbers might suggest, and he needed something to keep hitters off that pitch. Last year, he played around with a cutter, but that offering struggled to miss bats and had a high expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against it. The changeup was a very strong offering for him, as well, but he only used it 11% of the time; he struggled to command it with any authority. It was a unicorn shape, almost rising as it approached the plate. That meant it tunnelled very well with his four-seam fastball, while being around 11 miles per hour slower out of the hand. His profile was similar to that of Lucas Giolito, at his best, with the combination of a high slot on a rising fastball and a changeup that used velocity separation instead of movement. If we look at Pitch Profiler's dynamic dead zone map, which contrasts the actual movement of the pitch (solid-colored circles) with the expected movement based on spin and release angle, we can see how that pitch deviates from the hitter's expectation. Myers has quite a unique arsenal, in that his pitches all deviate quite significantly from that perception. The four-seam fastball cuts a lot; his curveball is straighter, but with more depth; and the changeup gets an unusual amount of ride. That being said, only two of his pitches last season were classified as having above-average Stuff+ ratings in Jeremy Maschino's model, while the rest graded out quite poorly: The ideal solution this year would have been for Myers to continue developing that feel for his changeup in the offseason, using it more in games this season and reducing the cutter usage. The problem is, that feel just never materialized. He threw his changeup just 3.3% of the time early in the season before being demoted to the minor leagues. When he reached Triple A, up until June 1, Myers threw it just 6.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone just one out of every six times he threw it. He had no control of the pitch, and despite great results when he did elicit swings, without feel, it was only a supplementary offering. Enter: the split-change. Myers has found an immediate comfort with his new changeup variant, and it's really showing. Since returning to the major-league club in July, Myers has thrown his changeup 26.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone 56.2% of the time. Usually, the correlation would be that more in-zone pitches would equal fewer swings and misses and more damage, especially if that pitch is thrown more often. Not in this case, though, with Myers producing a lower xwOBA on contact and a higher whiff rate so far since his return to the staff than he did throughout 2024. Yes, it's a small sample size of not even 50 pitches, but it's clear that Myers has found something here. He's managed to retain a similar shape as 2024, with high induced vertical break for a changeup, but he has killed a little more of the spin and created more deviation from the expected movement path. The results put this new version of the change in the mix with some of the best offspeed pitches in baseball. It's a huge weapon that allows him to keep hitters off-balance, and off of his fastball, while opening up a plethora of sequencing options that he's comfortable using to both left- and right-handed hitters. He's so comfortable, in fact, that his last two games have seen usage rates of over 40%, becoming his main pitch in lieu of the four-seam fastball. This is the Tobias Myers we caught glimpses of in 2024, but with a dominant non-fastball in his arsenal, the next step might be to move him from the multi-inning relief role he's filled recently to more of a short-burst, high-leverage gig, as needed. He's becoming more promising as a playoff weapon, the more he shows that that changeup can dominate. On the other hand, with a crowded stretch in the schedule here and starting depth always worth worrying about, the Brewers may try to stretch Myers out and bring him back to round out their rotation on the expanded rosters come September. That could be part of a plan to go to six starters. His recent changeup in tow, he's a great arm in any of a few potential roles. What do you think of Myers's changeup? Have you been impressed with his recent outings? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

I'd love to disagree, but I can't really argue anything right now. That swing has my mind all scrambling, the poetry and violence in combination are seriously impressive

This guy knows the score

Update: it's a balmy 12:50 here in Bangor, NI and we are Ready. To. Rock. Let's go boys!

I feel like I've cheated by beating you to the initial post given all this fabulous research haha

So Baseball America has some profiles up on some players who they have inked as going to the Brewers. It's behind a paywall so I'll not share everything but here are some details 24. Diego Frontado, SS, Venezuela Frontado has a good history of in game performance, good plate discipline and pitch recognition and seems to put the ball in play a lot with some projectability for 20+ HR power. He's also a plus runner with a strong arm and a chance to stick at shortstop with good hands and movements in the 6 hole, but a lot will depend on his growth from what's quite a solid build 28. Jose Rodriguez, SS, Venezuela One of the best defensive players in the class, he's wiry at 6'1 and 160 lbs and a penchant for some acrobatic plays. Short swing, solid bat to ball skills but not a ton of power projection expected (some of which may be down to the frame, but its apparently a very short swing)

Honestly I'm kind of enjoying the nerves for the next two games, good preparation for the playoffs (given however this finishes out, the Brewers should have October baseball) So with that in mind, and given I live in Northern Ireland, I'm contemplating staying up and watching the game at 1 AM What d you guys think? Worth it? Hearts for yes, thumbs down for a "yeah, nah" @Brock BeauchampIf you let me use polls in future, I 100% will not abuse that power 👀

Kenny Fenelon with his fifth homer of the DSL season

Ben, you've been a blessing this year! Loved the reports!

The Brewers have been on record saying they usually attempt steals due to the pitcher, not the catchers arm and made it a big point of emphasis with their own staff this past offsesson

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Brandon Woodruff's form since returning from what could have been a career-ending injury has been beyond the wildest dreams of even his most fervent fans. The grizzled bulldog has a 2.29 ERA through 35 1/3 innings pitched, despite hurling the ball at lower velocities than his career norms. He's been making hitters look silly and has pummelled the strike zone, resulting in 45 strikeouts against just six walks. Even more impressively, his fastball seems to be ticking upward from one game to the next, a scary thing for opposing hitters. Woodruff's arsenal is dominated by his four-seamer/sinker combination, preferring the sinker to right-handers and the four-seamer to lefties. Both of these offerings are returning some ludicrous swing-and-miss rates, thanks to the command of both pitches—numbers made all the more impressive by how consistently Woodruff is pounding the strike zone with each. Woodruff isn't dancing around hitters. He's going right at them, blowing them away time and again. With such a fastball-heavy approach, you might think that hitters would begin to square him up as he goes through the order a second and third time, but in fact, the opposite has proven true. Woodruff's fastball seems to take an inning or so to ramp up, sitting 90-91 mph early in his starts before living around 94-95 mph from the third inning on. Perhaps this plays a part in his success as he works through an order, but his results there are startling: Woodruff has a 33.3% strikeout rate the third time through an order and has given up just one walk in the 21 hitters he's faced. That's a small sample size, but we should also note how his stuff has played better the second time through. He grows into the game as it goes on, and that third time through is vital in playoff games. True, Woodruff has been a bit prone to the home run ball when he misses his spot, but the lack of walks and hits (he has a 0.68 WHIP on the season) means that those long balls haven't done a lot of damage. Let's contrast this with the presumed playoff starter, Freddy Peralta: Peralta has been dominant in the first inning, but slowly seen that wear away, to the point that you would feel unsure about him in the second inning as hitters adjust to his stuff—never mind the third time through an order. It's not a horrible set of numbers, and most pitchers do regress the third time through, but in Game 1, you want a pitcher to go more than five innings if possible. The Brewers' set-up with Aaron Ashby and DL Hall allows them to cover from short starts better than most, but it isn't ideal. Peralta also has a habit of occasionally throwing games away. If his fastball command is even slightly off, he seems to spray it around, getting into a lot of deep counts and issuing a lot of walks. He, too, can be prone to the long ball. Despite possessing some of the best stuff in the league, Peralta doesn't inspire quite the same level of confidence as Woodruff, who you know will continue to pound the strike zone and force hitters to beat him. Woodruff is the only pitcher the Brewers would consider starting in Game 1 of the playoffs over Peralta. Experience matters in these situations, and Peralta has been the undisputed leader of this staff since Woodruff's shoulder surgery. That being said, Woodruff's experience and mindset are perfectly suited to the pressure of a playoff series, and Pat Murphy could start him without having anyone (even Peralta) ask any especially hard questions about it. Brandon Woodruff's stuff is getting nastier with each outing. He's shown himself to be consistently dominant, even when seeing hitters a third time through, should that be needed. He's a bulldog, and he would set a tone for the Brewers in the 2025 playoffs while creating one of those full-circle moments from his injury heartbreak in September of 2023. Who would you like to see in game one of a playoff series? Does the third time through an order matter as much in a short series? Would your answer change depending on whether it's a Wild Card Series game or a Division Series game? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images The Brewers bunch of "Average Joes" are on a franchise-altering tear. They've won 48 out of their last 64 games and lead the league in full-season record by five games. Having looked like potential trade deadline sellers in the middle of May, this is a remarkable turnaround—without any one, easy explanation. They're not being carried by a triumvirate of Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani, or any hitter who will even get down-ballot MVP votes this season. Yet, they've scored more runs than any other team but the Toronto Blue Jays in that 64-game stretch. Simultaneously, no one on the Brewers staff is likely to get serious Cy Young votes (perhaps some down-ballot ones). Yet, since the start of the season (including blow-up outings from Elvin Rodriguez, Connor Thomas, Nestor Cortes and more), they're second in the NL for runs allowed, and one off the leadership. It's miraculous that the Brewers have performed this way without outstanding seasons from their offensive stars, and without barrages of home runs. It defies all modern orthodoxy on how an offense should be constructed. Is it a lucky 64-game stretch? Is it even possible to be merely lucky for that length of time? Or have the Brewers cracked baseball's code? We've heard the "win today" mantra preached by Pat Murphy since he became the manager, and it's a message the Brewers are really taking to heart. They've created a team thriving on the belief that they are the best team in baseball, despite the plucky underdog tag that the rest of baseball appears to have branded them with. They believe they're capable of winning any game in any situation, and that belief has fueled a historic run. Where Are All These Runs Coming From? It's an offense defined by plate discipline, and in that comes their consistency. Home run binges can come and go, but consistent, high-quality plate appearances are more controllable for the hitter. That brings about several advantages. Since May 18, the Brewers have (per FanGraphs): The lowest chase rate in baseball Fifth-best walk rate Fourth-lowest strikeout rate Second-best wRC+ Second-best OPS Second-best on-base percentage All of these, for a team that propels itself with elite pitching, gives an opportunity for consistent offensive pressure and production. They get on base, put the ball in play, and strangle your offense when they take a lead. There's been a lot of talk about the Brewers scrappy nature on the offensive side of the ball, but there hasn't been nearly enough praise for the pitching performances that have been even better. It's been one dominant start after another, but two players in particular have taken the Brewers to a whole new height. Why is No One Lauding This Rotation as the Key Ingredient in Their Success? Brandon Woodruff's stuff has not been at his pre-injury levels, with his fastballs sitting a few ticks down from where he's historically been. It appears to be trending upward from game to game, and perhaps that dearth of velocity is overshadowing just how dominant he's been. Jacob Misiorowski made the All-Star Game after just five starts, showing some of the most electric raw stuff in all of baseball and having somehow found genuine command of his arsenal. This organization has a reputation for taking the Jose Quintana types of this world and making them play up with the defense behind them. They did it with Chad Patrick earlier in the season, and both Quintana and Quinn Priester are the beneficiaries of that defense. What no one is talking about is how utterly overpowering this rotation has become since Woodruff and Misiorowski joined the pitching staff. Again, using that date of May 18, the Brewers have: The best ERA in baseball The second-best strikeout rate in baseball The second-best Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) in baseball Ummm... and the Defense? Yes, the Brewers have a phenomenal defensive unit, ranking second-best in Outs Above Average (OAA) and third-best for Fielding Run Value (FRV), but it's not the only reason for their success as a defensive unit anymore. They're electric when called upon, but with the hydra of Woodruff, Misiorowski and Freddy Peralta, good luck even putting the ball in play. In summation, much has been made of what statistics the Brewers are putting up, but perhaps not enough has been done to look into how they're putting those numbers out. They have an offensive formula that has created one of the most consistent offenses in baseball since mid-May, a pitching staff with the most overpowering stuff in all of baseball, and a defensive unit that ranks top-five over that span in two of the three main fielding metrics. One overlooked portion of "winning the small margins" is how the Brewers, after a focus point in the offseason, have worked with their pitchers and William Contreras to limit the running game. They've caught 38% of would-be base stealers, and have only seen 61 attempts against them this season. Extra bases don't come cheaply against this team. It's one example of a host of small details that allow the Brewers to consistently win on the margins. The wider conversation still appears to be on the home run potency of the Brewers and how that will feature in the playoffs. They've proved of late that their model works. Perhaps we should all be revelling in this iteration of Brewers baseball, in what's turned out to be quite the summer of passion and entertainment. Some moments are difficult to replicate over a larger sample size, and there certainly have been some smiles from Lady Luck. The execution of Blake Perkins's throw and the tag from Contreras were faultless on Friday evening, but if Starling Marte had half a foot more as a lead from second base, he would have scored. It was a bang-bang play that could have gone either way. Contreras crushed a ball to right field on Saturday that was unfortunate to register an out, but the pitch clock reprieve gave him a second chance and he took full advantage. Still, when you do so many things right on the baseball field (commanding outlier raw stuff on the mound, controlling the running game, elite outfield coverage defensively and consistently putting the ball in play), you put yourself in a position to take advantage of opportunities that come along. The Brewers are the only team since May 18 to rank in the top 5 of Weighted Runs Created (wRC+), Earned Run Average (ERA), Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) and Outs Above Average (OAA), to show just how well-rounded this team truly is. Solo shots don't do permanent damage (as the Mets found out, to their chagrin, this weekend). Instead, with constant pressure on the base paths, at the plate, defensively, and with this upside of three potential aces in the rotation, the Brewers have the means to win in a variety of different ways, and that allows them to avoid some of the long slumps in the ups and downs of a baseball season. There is a skill in capitalizing on big moments in games; it's a mental fortification not everyone possesses. The Brewers appear to have it in abundance, even if it won't always pay off to the extent it did in the Mets series. With such an incredible starting rotation and a shutdown bullpen (I haven't even talked about the exploits of Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill), the Brewers don't need to score truckloads of runs to win. It just so happens they're revelling in the big moments and doing so, anyway. While some regression may be expected (such winning runs are historically difficult to maintain), make no mistake about it: this Milwaukee Brewers team is the best team in baseball, regardless of luck. They may have had some fortune at times, but their skillset has allowed them to maximize that fortune. View full article