Jake McKibbin
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Everything posted by Jake McKibbin
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Jayden Dubanewicz, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers, 19 Dubanewicz was drafted in the 16th round last summer by the Brewers as a relatively young 18-year-old out of Stoneman Douglas High School. The Brewers gave Dubanewicz a $665k bonus, over $500k above slot, to keep him away from his commitment to Florida. Listed at 6’3, Dubanewicz has plenty of projection on his frame and loose and whippy arm action, but has solid command. He impressed me in my looks and showed a solid arsenal of pitches that could lead to him being a solid starting pitcher with the command he brings to the table. The fastball that presently works around 92-94 mph can touch 95, and it comes from a funky slot which gives hitters tough looks. Dubanewicz creates good sinking action and plenty of arm-side run. He will mix a four-seam that has 15.5 inches of IVB from a 5’7” release height, which is a couple of inches higher than his sinker that gets more run. Mixing in a slider, curveball, and changeup, Dubanewicz has a deep arsenal of pitches. The slider is the primary secondary that sits 81-84 mph with around six inches of sweeping action. The changeup sits at 85-87 mph, but has around 16 inches of fade and late depth. I know you can look at the strikeout rate and be concerned, but the stuff is there for Dubanewicz to miss plenty of bats.
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José Anderson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, 18 Anderson was among the strong Brewers DSL crew last summer, breaking out and mashing eight home runs with 20 extra-base hits while slashing .283/.403/.512. The centerfielder received just a $60k bonus when he signed, but is already proving his worth as he showed strong contact and solid power. Taking some aggressive swings, Anderson has shown the ability to hit the ball hard, having exit velocities that are well above-average for his age. It plays up due to the fact that he puts the ball in the air over 65 percent of the time and has shown strong pull rates. There are traits here that could make Anderson a solid prospect, but there is also a ton of whiff. Breaking balls ate Anderson up this week, so it will be something to watch, but given the tools, if Anderson hits, he could be a fun player
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Luis Peña, INF, Milwaukee Brewers, 18 Peña looked much more comfortable this week than when I saw him in April, when he was dealing with a lower-body injury. The clock times were much better as I got a home-to-first sprint at 3.97 seconds, showing incredible speed. While he did not do anything that necessarily stood out in a big way, Peña put a ton of balls in play and showed improved speed. The contact rates have trended in the wrong direction all year, but Peña is still limiting strikeouts, which is the important thing. Much like Made, there is still a lot of work to do, but that is okay, given Peña is 18 years old. The exit velocities have been strong, the foot speed is there, and Peña is still running respectable contact rates. He is a fun prospect with plenty to dream on.
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Chris Clegg is a dynasty guy with some brilliant insight into players and he went to watch the mudcats last week, so here are a couple of his write-ups (from his free email) Jesús Made, SS, Carolina Mudcats, 18 Made just looks the part. A young 18-year-old, Made had a high Baseball IQ and great instincts. Freshly promoted to High-A, there are questions surrounding Made’s surface numbers this year in Single-A. Leaving the Mudcats with a .267/.373/.388 slash line with just four home runs, some have jumped off the Made bandwagon. That’s okay, I would buy the shares. At the plate, I got multiple swings from both the left and right sides of the plate, and the swings are smooth and fast. The bat speed is electric, and Made makes loud contact. Every day that passes, Made looks more comfortable in the box, and his contact rates are steadily rising. He has actually surpassed Luis Peña in contact rate at this point and Made has a stellar approach. Since the start of July, Made has an 82 percent contact rate with the approach looking good. The exit velocities are still strong, with Made running a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 105 mph. The average for an 18-year-old is closer to 97 mph. The swing could use some tweaks, and that will probably take place during the offseason. The biggest change that needs to happen is to shorten the swing and get a tad more loft. His clock times are above-average, but his instincts on the base paths are good. Made has all the intangibles. He is incredibly young and being pushed rather aggressively. The Brewers believe in him and you should too
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For me it should be Drake Baldwin. Catcher with an .807 OPS, crushing baseballs with great underlying metrics and average defense. Its tough to accumulate WAR the same way as a catcher when you have more rest days than every other hitter, but Baldwin has been awesome and has been there all season.
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The way the Yankees are sequencing for Williams makes absolutely no sense to me Here's how the Brewers used him last year: High up and away to right handers with more fastballs than changeups, and when he dropped that changeup in there off the same tunnel, it finishes in the low and in portion of the strike zone. he could manoeuvre that fastball around the top of the zone, but he needed it to set the tone for him. Now the Yankees: Four seamer predominantly up and in to right handers, up and away left handers which wouldn't tunnel at all with his changeup when he's locating it down on the opposite side of the zone. If I had to hazard a guess, hitters are picking up which pitch is which really early because they just aren't tunnelling at all, and its causing any contact against him to be loud. Williams had one of the best average exit velocities from 2022-24, but he's getting barrelled up at a big rate this year. Surely the Yankees are smarter than that?
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Anthony Seigler is a canonically Brewers hitter, showcasing elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline without a lot of raw power. He's slashing just .188/.250/.188, which begs the question as to why Seigler is getting continued opportunities on the strong side of the platoon compared to Caleb Durbin. The simplistic reason is that his slash line is a result of a small sample size of batted balls, and his expected numbers are .280/.333/.419, but that doesn't quite tell the whole story. Seigler's plate appearances have been long, drawn-out affairs that often precipitate perfect launch angles and balls into the outfield grass, and he has been unfortunate with how many of these have been directed right at fielders. He lacks the power to clear the fences with any regularity, but he does spray the ball around quite effectively as a left-handed hitter. To add to this, Seigler's performance at Triple A provided a larger sample of at-bats. It produced a profile that isn't often seen, with incredible consistency of good exit velocities without high-end, booming contact. Most hitters with a high average exit velocity are skewed by their volume of batted balls at 112 mph+, whereas Seigler just seems to find the barrel of the bat with a smooth, easy swing over and over again. Here are his stats as a left-handed hitter (from Eli-Ben Porat) in Triple A before he got called up: The big thing to note here is that no pitch gave Seigler any real concern in terms of chase rates or in-zone contact, while he slugged well when swinging in the strike zone on nearly all offerings. That's changed very slightly in the majors, where he has struggled to catch up to some of the velocity on show. Pitchers are pounding him with fastballs on the outer third, and Seigler hasn't quite adjusted. He hasn't been able to get to the pull side, and it's holding him back just a little. The swing decisions have been impressive, but he hasn't been walking much (as pitchers haven't found much to fear in his profile yet), and he's not quite contacting the ball with the same authority as he did in Nashville. All of that is perfectly normal for any hitter given the big jump in quality from Triple A to the majors; however, the Brewers don't have a lot of time for Seigler to figure it out, perhaps a couple of weeks. That's not to say he'll be demoted, but he might see far less frequent playing time after that point. The other issue the Brewers have is that Caleb Durbin is looking more and more impressive against right-handers of late, with month-by-month production boosting since May: While his season-long splits haven't been amazing, Durbin's relentless tenacity has far surpassed expectations with the glove at third base. More importantly, Durbin has already gone through the process of adjusting to big league pitching that Seigler just hasn't. Seigler's underlying performance looks fantastic, and his at-bats are great to the naked eye, but there's only so long that can hold up when the Brewers are chasing every little win around the margins to keep their hot stretch going. There's every reason to believe that Anthony Seigler's luck can turn at any point, but that point needs to come sooner rather than later. What do you think of the Anthony Siegler and Caleb Durbin platoon used by the Brewers of late? Do you trust Seigler's surface performance or his quality of contact more in the early going? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images Anthony Seigler is a canonically Brewers hitter, showcasing elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline without a lot of raw power. He's slashing just .188/.250/.188, which begs the question as to why Seigler is getting continued opportunities on the strong side of the platoon compared to Caleb Durbin. The simplistic reason is that his slash line is a result of a small sample size of batted balls, and his expected numbers are .280/.333/.419, but that doesn't quite tell the whole story. Seigler's plate appearances have been long, drawn-out affairs that often precipitate perfect launch angles and balls into the outfield grass, and he has been unfortunate with how many of these have been directed right at fielders. He lacks the power to clear the fences with any regularity, but he does spray the ball around quite effectively as a left-handed hitter. To add to this, Seigler's performance at Triple A provided a larger sample of at-bats. It produced a profile that isn't often seen, with incredible consistency of good exit velocities without high-end, booming contact. Most hitters with a high average exit velocity are skewed by their volume of batted balls at 112 mph+, whereas Seigler just seems to find the barrel of the bat with a smooth, easy swing over and over again. Here are his stats as a left-handed hitter (from Eli-Ben Porat) in Triple A before he got called up: The big thing to note here is that no pitch gave Seigler any real concern in terms of chase rates or in-zone contact, while he slugged well when swinging in the strike zone on nearly all offerings. That's changed very slightly in the majors, where he has struggled to catch up to some of the velocity on show. Pitchers are pounding him with fastballs on the outer third, and Seigler hasn't quite adjusted. He hasn't been able to get to the pull side, and it's holding him back just a little. The swing decisions have been impressive, but he hasn't been walking much (as pitchers haven't found much to fear in his profile yet), and he's not quite contacting the ball with the same authority as he did in Nashville. All of that is perfectly normal for any hitter given the big jump in quality from Triple A to the majors; however, the Brewers don't have a lot of time for Seigler to figure it out, perhaps a couple of weeks. That's not to say he'll be demoted, but he might see far less frequent playing time after that point. The other issue the Brewers have is that Caleb Durbin is looking more and more impressive against right-handers of late, with month-by-month production boosting since May: While his season-long splits haven't been amazing, Durbin's relentless tenacity has far surpassed expectations with the glove at third base. More importantly, Durbin has already gone through the process of adjusting to big league pitching that Seigler just hasn't. Seigler's underlying performance looks fantastic, and his at-bats are great to the naked eye, but there's only so long that can hold up when the Brewers are chasing every little win around the margins to keep their hot stretch going. There's every reason to believe that Anthony Seigler's luck can turn at any point, but that point needs to come sooner rather than later. What do you think of the Anthony Siegler and Caleb Durbin platoon used by the Brewers of late? Do you trust Seigler's surface performance or his quality of contact more in the early going? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article
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One other interesting thing is that turang has been standing closer to the plate than usualy through July and the start of August The outer third has given him problems all year with weak contact and rolled over ground balls, so I wonder if that's going to help him once his timing and swing decisions adjust to cover the whole plate better
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Hey Jack! Just curious on this, to your trained eye, do you think Turang's just adjusting to his new approach at the plate or is there an issue with that approach that's causing the struggles with any non fastballs?
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Shelby Miller Is Exactly The Bullpen Arm The Brewers Needed
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Shelby Miller isn't a sexy addition like some of the Brewers' National League rivals have acquired on a wild trade deadline day. Still, he fits exactly what the Brewers needed: another arm capable of getting outs at the back end of the bullpen. Miller has shown himself a really tough arm to get on top of this season, with some significant upticks in movement and velocity leading to a 1.98 ERA. Miller relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, with almost 65% usage this season, to get outs, and it features an intriguing shape. Using Jeremy Machino's model that compares expected movement of each pitch with how much a pitcher actually obtains, we can see it garners a little more rise and a lot more horizontal movement than expected, allowing it to miss a lot of barrels. What we can tell from the above graph is that Miller gets more horizontal break on both his splitter and his four-seamer than hitters would expect from his three-quarters release point. A lot of this comes from seam orientation on the baseball, and is a key factor in surprising hitters. Quinn Priester's sinker is a great example of this; it doesn't look particularly special on the surface, but when factoring in his arm slot, it drops a ton more than hitters expect, creating a lot of ground balls. Although Miller got more induced vertical break while he was with Detroit in 2024, he actually got slightly less rise vs expectation last season and a lot less horizontal movement on his fastball. The whole arsenal has kicked into gear, as you can see from Thomas Nestico's stuff model comparison: Shelby Miller is now getting more movement both horizontally and vertically than we saw in 2024, where his walk problems and some home run misfortune hit hard. This season, he's managed to curtail the walks quite effectively by getting more swing and miss, and less overall damage because he's able to put away hitters. The more pitches you throw in an at-bat, the more likely you are to leave a mistake pitch over the plate. The improvement in sheer stuff is added to by the new sweeper that has more or less replaced the hard cutter from 2024. It's very much a pitch used to get quick outs and weak contact when that's required, often in favorable counts, but its strong glove side movement adds a wrinkle that helps both the four-seamer and splitter play up even more. Shelby Miller is better in 2025 than he's ever been. He's getting more chases, fewer swings inside the strike zone, and considerably more swings and misses this season. He's been dominant in 2025 and should allow the Brewers more maneuverability and options when they reach the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of a tight ball game. All of that for merely absorbing $2 million of Jordan Montgomery's salary and either cash or a player to be named later. The Brewers found value in a market of excessive overpays and have reinforced an area of their roster that had shown some shakiness around Jared Koenig of late. Miller projects to return sometime next week after a short rehab assignment, and they should expect him to hit the ground running. -
Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images Shelby Miller isn't a sexy addition like some of the Brewers' National League rivals have acquired on a wild trade deadline day. Still, he fits exactly what the Brewers needed: another arm capable of getting outs at the back end of the bullpen. Miller has shown himself a really tough arm to get on top of this season, with some significant upticks in movement and velocity leading to a 1.98 ERA. Miller relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, with almost 65% usage this season, to get outs, and it features an intriguing shape. Using Jeremy Machino's model that compares expected movement of each pitch with how much a pitcher actually obtains, we can see it garners a little more rise and a lot more horizontal movement than expected, allowing it to miss a lot of barrels. What we can tell from the above graph is that Miller gets more horizontal break on both his splitter and his four-seamer than hitters would expect from his three-quarters release point. A lot of this comes from seam orientation on the baseball, and is a key factor in surprising hitters. Quinn Priester's sinker is a great example of this; it doesn't look particularly special on the surface, but when factoring in his arm slot, it drops a ton more than hitters expect, creating a lot of ground balls. Although Miller got more induced vertical break while he was with Detroit in 2024, he actually got slightly less rise vs expectation last season and a lot less horizontal movement on his fastball. The whole arsenal has kicked into gear, as you can see from Thomas Nestico's stuff model comparison: Shelby Miller is now getting more movement both horizontally and vertically than we saw in 2024, where his walk problems and some home run misfortune hit hard. This season, he's managed to curtail the walks quite effectively by getting more swing and miss, and less overall damage because he's able to put away hitters. The more pitches you throw in an at-bat, the more likely you are to leave a mistake pitch over the plate. The improvement in sheer stuff is added to by the new sweeper that has more or less replaced the hard cutter from 2024. It's very much a pitch used to get quick outs and weak contact when that's required, often in favorable counts, but its strong glove side movement adds a wrinkle that helps both the four-seamer and splitter play up even more. Shelby Miller is better in 2025 than he's ever been. He's getting more chases, fewer swings inside the strike zone, and considerably more swings and misses this season. He's been dominant in 2025 and should allow the Brewers more maneuverability and options when they reach the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of a tight ball game. All of that for merely absorbing $2 million of Jordan Montgomery's salary and either cash or a player to be named later. The Brewers found value in a market of excessive overpays and have reinforced an area of their roster that had shown some shakiness around Jared Koenig of late. Miller projects to return sometime next week after a short rehab assignment, and they should expect him to hit the ground running. View full article
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He might mean Montgomery! But the kicker is, Montgomery is just a cash dump for the Diamondbacks. Honestly the Arizona owner after his comments last season would probably have paid a hefty price just to kick him out. I guess that's what they did given the relief pitching market and how little they'll get back for Miller
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Ha-Seong Kim would have been an ideal addition for the Brewers earlier in the season, albeit he has spent a lot of the year on the injured list. Capable of pull side power, Kim's fantastic swing decisions and low strikeout rate would mesh well with the Brewers while also showcasing great defensive grades over the last three seasons. Kim is being linked with the New York Yankees, who are concerned by the defensive performances of Anthony Volpe in 2025. He's a base-stealing threat and one of the smoothest shortstops in the league, who provides a consistent ~ .700 OPS that marks a substantial upgrade on the output from Joey Ortiz thus far. He has back tightness at present, and has struggled with injuries this year, which should lower the cost but does present some risk to any acquisition. How much would you give to see the versatile former Padre in the six hole through August and September?
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Ha-Seong Kim would have been an ideal addition for the Brewers earlier in the season, albeit he has spent a lot of the year on the injured list. Capable of pull side power, Kim's fantastic swing decisions and low strikeout rate would mesh well with the Brewers while also showcasing great defensive grades over the last three seasons. Kim is being linked with the New York Yankees, who are concerned by the defensive performances of Anthony Volpe in 2025. He's a base-stealing threat and one of the smoothest shortstops in the league, who provides a consistent ~ .700 OPS that marks a substantial upgrade on the output from Joey Ortiz thus far. He has back tightness at present, and has struggled with injuries this year, which should lower the cost but does present some risk to any acquisition. How much would you give to see the versatile former Padre in the six hole through August and September? View full rumor
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Trade deadline day thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Oh. My. Lord. Well, those Padres sure are something -
Trade deadline day thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I wonder if there's a clause in Mike Trout's contract that they have to try every year -
Trade deadline day thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Unfortunately the Angels seem to believe they'll win the world series every season, including this one. They wouldn't trade Neto -
Have Milwaukee Brewers Been Too Passive at 2025 MLB Trade Deadline?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
After all the deliberation over cost, Eugenio Suárez didn't command nearly the value that some fans expected. Part of this is because, as the deadline approaches, both sides of the negotiating table are more likely to compromise, coming toward the middle from their initial, outlying positions. That being said, the Brewers may have missed a trick, given what it actually cost for the premier rental bat on the market. The Trade In return for Suárez, the Arizona Diamondbacks received: Tyler Locklear (1B): With burgeoning power and solid swing decisions, Locklear has a propensity to put the ball on the ground more often than you would like, but when he elevates, he does so with authority. He possesses a .316/.400/.542 slash line at Triple A this season and is ready for the majors, with plus raw power if the hit tool can play against the best pitchers in the world. Hunter Cranton (RHP): Looking like a bullpen arm, Cranton has a big fastball in the upper 90s, with a tight gyro slider. He has some command issues, but isn't projected to start games for a big-league club. He's already been kept out of the bullpen in High A, with only 18 professional innings under his belt. Juan Burgos (RHP): Another arm who doesn't project to start games, but has pitched more in the pros than Cranton has. He's pitched 6 2/3 innings out of the pen for the Mariners in 2025 and had a 0.87 ERA in 31 innings at Triple A in 2025. With a heavy sinker, a high-80s cutter and a sweepy slider, he's an effective arm who should avoid the long ball but has limited upside in terms of missing bats. All in all, Locklear is the big piece for the Diamondbacks here, looking to solidify first base for their future rather than address their pitching concerns, as was reported to be the priority. Even in this case, the Brewers had a lot of ammunition to throw at a trade, with a plethora of powerful corner infield prospects (Luke Adams, Brock Wilken and Blake Burke, to name but a few). Yes, they may have been slightly further off than Locklear, but by combining with them with a more impactful arm, the Brewers could have made this push with relative ease. Additionally, with Andrew Fischer joining that corner infield group shortly, it's fair to say that may even have cleared a logjam at first base within the Brewers farm system. Pairing (say) Wilken with a Chad Patrick-type arm would be considered an improvement on the value the Diamondbacks received in this trade. It would have been a steep cost, but we are looking at the most powerful rental bat on the market right now, for a team that has struggled to produce consistent home run threats in 2025. The Brewers may have had some concerns about the recent spate of hand injuries Suárez has suffered since the All-Star Game. Over his last seven outings, Suarez is slashing .120/.207/.160 and, as a rental, you can't afford for him to need a month to recover from any lingering injuries. Hand problems, if they do exist, are particularly power-sapping and take time to heal effectively. Still, the Brewers had the ammunition to fire on Suárez, but may have chosen not to take that shot for one reason or another. Perhaps it's injury-related; perhaps they prefer their strong defensive set-up over a streaky hitter; or maybe the price the Diamondbacks demanded was more punitive on the Brewers (this can happen, as teams have different player evaluation rankings than those we see publicly). Either way, the biggest move the Brewers could make is now gone. Do The Brewers Need To Fortify Their Roster? Meanwhile, there have been a flurry of trades from the four other top teams in the National League: Chicago Cubs: acquired Michael Soroka and Andrew Kittredge Philadelphia Phillies: acquired Jhoan Duran New York Mets: acquired Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley Los Angeles Dodgers: added Ben Rortvedt, Adam Serwinowski and Paul Gervase (depth bullpen pieces with high strikeout stuff) All of this has gone on while the Brewers have stayed still. The resurgence of Andrew Vaughn may have cooled their hand on Ryan O'Hearn, but they still require more depth on the hitting front and have excess pitching in their rotation that they might use to improve their bullpen. The first baseman is the most "Brewers-y" hitter on the market, and would help them cover for Jackson Chourio should their young star require an IL stint with his hamstring strain. On the Mayor's Office Podcast with Sean Casey, Pat Murphy said the trade deadline "wasn't the Brewers thing" and they don't like to get involved in the melee of assets being transferred and the standard overpricing of acquisitions. Danny Jansen was a pickup on the margins, fortifying their catching depth in case William Contreras should lose an entire limb (short of that, he's not going on the IL, for love nor money), while adding a bench bat that could be useful in some situations but isn't what you would consider a needle-mover in October. Some might credit the pickups of Vaughn and Quinn Priester as the Brewers' "big trades" this year, but my view of it would suggest that only one of these deserves unanimous credit from the front office. It's not entirely fair to say that Vaughn was a big trade, despite the impact he's had. The Brewers effectively got him as a depth piece as his salary closely matched Aaron Civale's, with the main reason for the trade being to honor and respect Civale's wishes. We can't give the front office too much credit for that move, as if it grew from a "go for it" mentality. The Priester trade was a big move, and it's worked out phenomenally, trading a competitive balance pick and a top-10 MLB Pipeline organizational prospect for what looks like a long-term piece of the starting rotation. Still, in the position they sit now (with everyone around them fortifying their rosters), the Brewers need to keep in touch. Staying still may not be a viable option, with more moves still to come on trade deadline day. Will the Milwaukee Brewers push their chips into the middle? Or will they wait too long for "value", and miss out?- 23 comments
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