Jake McKibbin

Payne singled and a slightly fortunate stolen base. If the shortstop holds that, Payne's out fairly comfortably

Dorchies finishes off the frame with a misplaced high curveball to strike out Eli Willits. Nice scalp there

In some twist of fate, it would be fascinating to see the Mudcats, who were swept as the possessors in the final week of the first half, come back and do the same as the chasers in the second half for a playoff push.

And Jose Anderson with a deep drive to left! That marginal caught stealing on Bitonti hurts a little more now

There's a dude in the Mudcats game, a spectator in a red shirt, who epitomises "chill". That's total relaxation right there

Absolutely! My point is that Misiorowski missed time on the IL since the All Star break, so using that span to see what innings he covered isn't a fair statistical representation (though he hasn't eaten a ton of innings obviously)

Rhys Hoskins has zero MLB at bats in that time.. It's an interesting debate to go down, but the injury break, a subsequent ramp up, does negate the value of this statistic

Thread Title: On Point

Also, I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong here, but it looks as though Ernesto has been adjusting his approach quite a bit. I think he's selling out a little earlier for that air pull, and it's cost him that elite in zone contact rate from last season (and early in this one) I never expected his air pull ball rate to be quite so high. Might be worth some swing change investigation

A little peek at a jet-lagless Tucker Davidson. Seems to kill spin on the splitter really nicely, and the slider has a nice shape, but I'm not sure that fastball can ever play really. Even the induced vertical break isn't all that impressive considering the arm angle he's using. Not much feel for spin unfortunately

A couple of things just to answer in response to the thread here: The water bags are a means of making sure that your body is transferring energy correctly through the throwing motion. Its a warm up without actually using your arm, and is a great way to find your timing and rhythm in loosening up. His innings are typically short because he can get drawn into long plate appearances, as well as some deep count walks. I've addressed that above somewhat in how he uses some of his pitches that could be tweaked to allow him to generate both quicker outs early in the count, and quicker putaways when he gets ahead. If you look at his splits (and credit @wiguy94 for messaging me all of this last night), by inning, there's no reason he can't give you five quality innings against almost anyone: The results may not have been there of late, but he's not far off at all. He struck out 10 in five innings just a start ago!!

Bryce Meccage is back in action this week!

That dumptruck ain't made to sit around

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Jacob Misiorowski hasn't hit the ground running after his shin contusion. He's struggled with command against both Cincinnati and Chicago, and has made a consistent theme of letting innings spiral out of control. Those crooked numbers (born of poor situation management) are the last thing you would want in playoff baseball, where every inning and every out is potentially pivotal, but it's also fair to say that the young hurler has had his fair share of misfortune. Let's see if we can find a way to break down his struggles. First, let's take a look at Baseball Savant's expected metrics. After his Phillies start, Misiorowski has a 4.50 ERA in 48 innings. Nothing flashy there. However, his underlying numbers suggest he's been better than that. He has a .183 expected batting average and .313 expected slugging against him. His expected ERA is 2.76. These are all marks in the upper echelons of baseball. That's not really surprising. His arsenal is almost unhittable. Even as we look at a times-through-the-order penalty, it seems as though he's performing well multiple times through. He's getting hit harder and higher, but he's still a strikeout machine after the lineup card turns over: Times Through Order Strikeout Rate Walk Rate xFIP Hard Hit Rate Fly Ball Rate Left on Base First 38.4% 12.1% 2.68 29.2% 35.4% 86.5% Second 35.3% 9.4% 3.16 40.4% 51.1% 36.6% Misiorowski has had a habit of exploding out of the gate, only to find a blow-up frame in the middle innings somewhere. Looking at the above, we can discern that he is getting hit slightly harder the second time through a lineup, albeit still at around an average clip overall. He's giving up more fly balls, too, but the big difference I find here is the left-on-base rate. When runners get on base, they score almost two-thirds of the time. For comparison's sake, the average left-on-base rate is 72.3% this season. When facing someone who can strike out hitters like "the Miz", you could expect that number to be closer to 80% over the course of his career. Yet, he's struggled to stop innings from snowballing. Part of this may be down to the pitcher, while another part is just bad luck. His start against the Diamondbacks is a perfect example. He dominated for most of his appearance, striking out 10 hitters across five innings of work with three hits and one walk, but due to a misplay at first base and an untimely home run, he gave up three runs. The home run came at the perfect time for maximum damage; that's at least partially out of Misiorowski's control. He did leave a slider middle-in, but it was a 96-mph slider. Turning on that pitch is no mean feat. That being said: A Sliding Tweak To His Arsenal Of all Misiorowski's pitches, the one I perhaps like the least is his hard slider (read "cutter," if your name is Jack Stern). Its shape isn't great, and is more of a "get you off the four-seamer" offering than a strong pitch on its own. The reason he developed it, and still has it as his second-most used pitch, is because he's very comfortable pouring it in when he needs to find the strike zone. He needed this last season when he struggled to locate the fastball, but perhaps not quite so often now that his primary offering's command has improved: Thomas Nestico's model highlights how Misiorowski has above-average zone rates for each of his main three pitches, but both of his secondaries have their problems. The slider is one he finds easy to locate, but he rarely gets swing-and-miss or chase with this offering, making it less useful when he gets ahead. Of the five home runs Misiorowski has given up this season, three have come on his slider. Part of the problem is his velocity differential from the fastball, which hitters are likely sitting on, but it helps them catch the slider slightly out in front and pull it in the air with relative consistency, doing some real damage if he leaves it over the middle of the plate. It does perform well enough when he can locate it on the outer third to right-handed batters, but it too often drifts over the middle, and that's real danger for this pitch shape. If he was more comfortable nibbling with the slider, I think it may perform better (even despite his current walk issues) and really limit the damage that can come behind it. In fact, given the counts Misiorowski uses his slider in, that's exactly what should be happening. He utilizes it predominantly to righties, and notice how the usage creeps up both in two-strike counts, and when he gets ahead: With the profile he has for whiffs on the slider, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Conventional wisdom would say that his slider is a good pitch to initiate weak contact on, but not so much to finish off hitters. The curveball's usage is probably lower than it should be, and honestly, the changeup could also be a good chase pitch off his fastball. The slider, well, there isn't a ton of logic to its current usage, given how it actually plays against big-league hitters. Pitch Profiler's model above suggests this would bring further benefits. The chart shows how well the pitch on the left hand side (y-axis) matches when thrown after the pitch on the bottom (x-axis). Notice how the slider sets up his fastball and changeup, better than vice-versa. The velocity can speed up, or slow down from there. Hitters aren't swinging much at Misiorowski's first pitch, waiting it out, knowing that they can force deep counts. If he gets ahead, the chances of a slider or curveball coming increase exponentially, and those two pitches are a little more gettable than his heater. If he falls behind, you can sell out early, knowing a fastball is coming your way. Misiorowski needs to become a little less predictable. It'll help him be more efficient in deeper counts, especially as he's landing his three primary offerings for strikes. He may also gain some benefit from throwing the changeup more to right-handers, as a chase-centric offering. Predictability, even with otherworldly stuff, gives hitters a chance to put the ball in play. His feel for the curveball and its location will likely continue to improve the more he pitches, as with the changeup, but how he uses all three off the fastball will go a long way toward deciding his future success. Has He Been Unlucky? The short answer here is yes. His expected FIP, expected ERA, and the quality of contact against him all indicate that his 4.50 ERA at this point is not representative of how he's pitched. He's given up some unfortunately timed long balls, although part of that may come from him tightening up with men on base. He walks more hitters when he lets one man on the basepaths behind him, and that can cause some escalation in moving a runner to scoring position, or the one big hit costing an extra run. It all tallies up, and it's fair to say that, based on Misiorowski's trends in both the major and minor leagues, this is a pattern for him. More exposure to these situations (and developing confidence in his ability to work through these problems) is the only solution. Whether his confidence goes, he loses focus on the "one-pitch-at-a-time" process, or he just gets tight, it's something that he'll learn how to work through in the moments that matter. Bringing this back to the original question of how much to trust Misiorowski in a playoff situation, that is a concern for now. If the pressure of a regular-season game can hit in this manner, then what will the bright lights in October manage? So, October? Misiorowski has the potential to be a game breaker. He can rip open lineups like almost no one else in baseball. He's been unfortunate of late, but if he can force the league to be more uncertain of what pitch comes next (as in his demolition of Kyle Schwarber below), he's still a unique weapon. He needs to mature on the mound. He'll get there. For now, I would imagine Misiorowski could be unleashed as a starter in October, with a fit, rested Aaron Ashby ready to cover should he begin to find some trouble. Perhaps we'll even see an improved level of focus in the bigger games. Perhaps, though, the better place for him is in the bullpen. It's important to note that, especially since the All-Star break, his velocity declines quickly after his first inning of work. He's down a full mile per hour by his second frame within each game, and another half-tick down for each of the next two. Maybe that means that adrenaline is helping him through first innings, but then ebbing as his outings continue. That screams out for reassignment to short relief. He does have a tendency to lose command in tight spots. That's not ideal for any pitcher, never mind in playoff baseball. He's also been dreadfully unlucky, though, and perhaps he's miscast in a starting role—at least at this moment in his development. The reliability of Quinn Priester would probably be favored over the young phenom at this point, but the Brewers should still keep him in their plans for October, one way or another. If it clicks, he might just be the reason they win it all. View full article

Jesus MadeLuis PenaCooper PrattMarco DingesJeferson QueroLogan HendersonRobert GasserBraylon PayneLuke AdamsBishop LetsonAndrew FischerBrock WilkenBlake BurkeJosh AdamczewskiLuis LaraBrady EbelEric BitontiTyson HardinFrank CaironeBryce Meccage

Jesus MadeLuis PenaCooper PrattMarco DingesJeferson QueroLogan HendersonRobert GasserBraylon PayneLuke AdamsBishop LetsonAndrew FischerBrock WilkenBlake BurkeJosh AdamczewskiLuis LaraBrady EbelEric BitontiTyson HardinFrank CaironeBryce Meccage

All while I'm kind of loving Shelby miller in this bullpen, who we got for a PTBNL and removing Jordan Montgomery from the D'Backs roster. I wonder at what point can any of us question Matt Arnold in any trade again? It's just hit after hit

Out of curiosity, what's the tiebreaker if the Mudcats tie with Fredericksburg?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Andrew Vaughn's initial success is the personification of financial investment warnings; that is, "past results are no indication of future performance." No one expected him to be a 1.200 OPS hitter over a longer span, yet he's still been a remarkably consistent presence at the plate in ways that suggest he's been incredibly unlucky in August. He did experience a slight drop-off in early August, but has rebounded lately with consistent, hard-hit aerial balls that just haven't yielded the results his performance warrants. Merely watching games would give some indication that Vaughn's plenitude of warning track fly balls suggests he's barely missing the game-changing long balls that had the Brewers fan base in raptures through July. We're talking a blade of wood on the bat of a difference here, folks, and sluggers will typically find that the home run ball comes in fits and spurts. That being said, pitchers have found a way to keep the hard-hit contact down on the ground more often in August by changing their approach to the first baseman. If we're talking about purely minimizing damage, one zone in his expected Weighted on base average on contact alongside his expected slugging stands out like a sore thumb: If you can keep pitches down, or down and away to Andrew Vaughn, he struggles to elevate it with the consistency to maximize his good contact. He still hits the ball hard, but ground balls at that speed can be tailor-made double play fodder for good defenses, and even when they do sneak through, it's more than likely just a single. Below we can see the pitch locations of all four seam fastballs, sinkers, and cutters in August compared to those in July: July August It's a ploy that's worked out well for the opposition, and while Vaughn is still punishing breaking balls, he's seen his expected slugging output drop markedly against fastballs in the zone. He's pulling the ball less often, meaning the barreled balls are going more often to center or the opposite field and aren't quite getting the same exit velocities to clear the fences. It's these sorts of small margins that are just barely shackling the first baseman. The good news is that Andrew Vaughn's cerebral approach to baseball has allowed him to maintain positive production for the Brewers, even without the signature slugging output of his debut month. He's striking out just 12.7% of the time in August with a walk rate of over 9%, putting balls in play and consistently squaring the ball up with good exit velocities. His Statcast page is filled with red on quality of contact metrics (even despite the inclusion of his White Sox numbers from earlier in the season): Andrew Vaughn has been unlucky in August. He's not whiffing much; he's taking his walks and making a lot of hard, high-quality contact. It just so happens that pitchers have found a way to subdue some of the roaring power he showed in his first month with the Brewers. It may result in Rhys Hoskins perhaps taking more at-bats against pitchers with dominant sinkers, and Vaughn with more four-seam dominant arms during the September stretch, or perhaps Vaughn simply gets that little bit of fortune that allows him to go on yet another tear for the Milwaukee Brewers. The good news is that, even without some of the slugging output, Andrew Vaughn has been a menace in the heart of the Brewers order, and it's only a matter of time before that luck rebounds and we see those extra base hits pour back in. He might not reach the highs of his July form again, but Andrew Vaughn is still a capable and effective producer for this Milwaukee Brewers line-up. What do you think of Andrew Vaughn's recent form? Is it concerning, or do you see enough quality in his plate appearances to keep him rolling? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Jeferson Quero has been awesome of late, but there are some red flags here in terms of what the Brewers organisation looks for:

This may be one of the more fascinating TJStats profiles I've seen. Stuff grades out horribly, but the changeup has had some solid whiff rates while the other parts of his arsenal do a solid job limiting hard contact

Urias is interesting as a profile, but not as a n acquisition for the Brewers. He's been poor defensively and he seems to be trying to adopt a more Caleb Durbin type profile, where he doesn't hit the ball hard and has sacrificed some EV's for some increased air pull rates. He doesn't really fit with the Brewers for my money, even if Ortiz was out for a longer period of time, and he's not exactly setting the world alight with his altered approach either (.653 OPS this season)