BrewerFan

Smith isn't a FA for 3 more years. He's just one year into the 4 year extension he signed last year and then restructured that earlier this year converting his...~8.5 base into a signing bonus. So his dead cap is close to 20M. Probably just a little bit under. Spotract doesn't have the numbers right. They have the restructured money excluded, but he's pretty much a lock as a result. Even next year you're not saving much by cutting him as he has a ~13M dead cap hit...but you could trade him(basically give him away or he could restructure and lower his base...though there's really no incentive for him to do so other than to keep playing). So I think it's 4 locks and Cox Jr looked...just outstanding last night. He's undisciplined at times as most young players are...I just don't know exactly what the kids issues were for UGA and UFA to kick him off their Football teams. They'd pretty much roster OJ post acquittal if he had eligibility left. I keep seeing fights. I'm HOPING he was just an immature kid and has grown up. I thought we looked deep here though. Keshawn Banks played really well late, Hollins showed...his same speed rush with a bit more power. Pretty distinct drop offs though. Gary to Smith to Van Ness/Enagbare at this point, then Cox, then Hollins/Banks and high effort potential STers. What, 5 days later for Lewis? I thought of all the players, the vets, he was the ONE who it made a lot of sense to bring back. He's such as massive security blanket for a young QB. Not in the traditional sense, but just as 6 OL. And he was cheap. But you're still losing ~340 special teams snaps and Lewis may replace those on the kicking unit, but I don't see him covering kicks or blocking in the kick return game. Danny Glove's line from Die Hard comes to mind here when thinking of the Packers to get him to run up and down the field covering punts!

It's just gonna be fun to see who is going to pop from this group. Baez, Pratt, Bitonti, Guiarte or at 3B will it be Boeve, Wilken, Adams. There are so many guys from every position group, guys with speed, power... The one area this farm system is lacking is in projectable young arms and that's really relative to the rest of the system. Misiorowski, Gasser, Knoth and hopefully Leston or one of the prep arms from this year develops. Gasser, Rodriguez are middle to back of the rotation types at the moment, but...maybe they tick up. Key is getting a good package back for Burnes, but I could easily see this farm system being a top 3-5 system mid-season next year.

@Mass Haas has explained and I'll just cut and paste it since...it doesn't make a ton of sense to me, but I trust the source; So basically, if they keep him in the minors, they get another year of hm and they get him for half the price. I don't know if that is actually impacting their decision or not, but it certainly seems like something outside of Baseball reasons are having an impact.

I had given up on this guy. The Brewers Bellinger...and then...

Alright...I'm gonna really try to make this the last time I mention this because it's not gonna happen, but I don't think we would have to take a contract back. If he were a FA, you don't think he'd get 5/136.5 in free agency? I think he'd get at least that. And if you wait until he's closer to 35, then you will have to take back a bad contract...most likely for him. But if he's a 4 WAR player for the next couple years, It'd be great. But you're counting on his back and for him to physically hold up and I don't see enough evidence that he can. He's obviously feeling a whole lot better this year as he's moving well. The EV has remained steady, but, sprint speed, his arm from the OF. As for the non-diehards, if you win they'll come. Yelich was pubic enemy #1 for Brewers fans...which is kinda typical. The "he got paid and doesn't care," or the "he can't hit now that they're not giving him the pitch," nonsense that came from the Darvish situation(because a minor glance to see where the 2B is in the shift is proof of something). I suppose that just tells you how fickle a lot of fans are, but I think they'd be happy with the young group they've got. I don't know that it'd be moot. It might be...but he might also accept a trade to a team like the Angels IF they bring Ohtani back. Again, slots in so well from their perspective. Yelly/Trout/Ohtani...and I guess you hope Rendon comes back, but it'd be up to him. Now....we do all agree it's not gonna happen, especially when he's back. We may wish we did in a few years, or we may be celebrating a Brewers great who had a late career resurgence. We'll find out. He's a really easy guy to root for, so this has nothing to do with wanting to see him gone or thinking THIS version of him isn't worth every penny he's making....just to be extra clear.

I get giving Winker a long leash, but it got a little ridiculous given how much his production dropped off last year and then he went and had two pretty significant injuries. Removing him from the 40 isn't the issue. It's not adding him back at SOME point. There were games when he was healthy in June where Tellez, Winker, Tapia and Urias were all starting. This was in the midst or Tellez putting up a ~350 OPS over the previous month. I'll understand all of this if the Brewers retain him on a 1.1M salary next year and he ends up not being a MiLB FA. Outside of that(which seems to be reliable)...I just can't see a justification...and this is getting extremely old at this point.

Yeah, I don't know what happened there. They seemed to like him...and he doesn't grade out as badly as he looked and "only" gave up 3 sacks, but I think that was Rodgers. He's pretty similar to Elgton in terms of size, athletic ability...even both Miss. boys(at least for school). But he was a disaster at RT and he's not someone who inspires much faith, even as the 4th G or 4th or 5th OT. But unless Walker or Rhyan or someone moves ahead of him at Guard, he might make the team again. I'm not sure if Walker has even been getting reps at guard. Jake Hanson is still on the roster too, so... That IOL just doesn't look great past Jenkins, JRJ and maybe Tom, Myers Bakh, Jenkins, Tom, Myers, Runyan Jr, Nijman, Walker, Jones, Tenuta...and I think Newman will make the roster again this year. Maybe they add a Guard or maybe he just gets better this year like TJ Lang. Remember how bad he looked rotating between RT and G first two years?

Some really good tape from Family Night breaking down Wyatt. You see the potential. Also take note that Van Ness gets a bull rush where he catches Tom off balance and on his heels and Tom recovers and while LVN may have made Love reset, Tom's recovery is reminiscent of Bakhtiari. If they don't move Tom to Center, I really see both the physical similarities and the technical similarities between he and Bakh. Now, on this first play, we all know Newman isn't a world beater...but that's still impressive how Wyatt basically throws him. ALSO love how they lined up with Two edges heads up over the OT in a 7 tech, the two DL at 4I or 3 Techniques and then had Quay and the other MLBer both in the A gaps while playing press. Just PLEASE find more ways to get Quay attacking in space, but I think we see this look vs the Bears but with Quay spying Fields. But onto the whole point;

1-"King of the Clubhouse?" That comes off as snide...and I doubt you meant it as any sort of compliment, but Willy Adames is pretty much universally respected in the clubhouse, he's the energy behind the team and the players and coaches all seem to love him. Adames, again, has been at the heart of nearly every Hiura post you've made...and I don't get it. What's the relation? It really seems strange. Like it's personal. He's struggled this year. Got it. He's also got a BB/K rate that's on par with past production(if not better) and he has a .232 BABIP. So he should probably be hitting ~.240/.330 with power. But dropping him down 2 spots in the lineup...it feels like you want this to be punitive. To put him in his place? Who should be hitting where? How big of a difference are we talking about for the amount of energy you've put into making Hiura about Adames? 2-HE'S PLAYED 31 INNINGS. 20 ABs. It's ridiculous... 3-Ok, so the Brewers got Adames and Tellez and they got them to both VASTLY improve off their production at that time, but it's the organizations fault they're struggling this year but NOT to their credit when they improve? Same with Yelich. No credit for him exploding into an MVP caliber player, ONLY blame for him not performing well in '20 and '21...but then again, still not responsible for him bouncing back last year and much Moreso this year. Yeah, that's pretty much the definition of cherry picking.

So what? Adames plays every day. Why WOULDN'T he expect to play? I don't understand your point. And he's not an .800 OPS guy anymore? Meaning...those days are gone or are you simply looking at his stat line and reading it off to me? I fully expect him to return to an ~800 OPS. But moving him down in the lineup? That's why you've singled in on Adames in nearly every post about Hiura? Seems like you're expending an awful lot of energy wanting Adames to hit...6th rather than 4th. He's had a bad year. He's also had a .232 BABIP, so he's hit into bad luck. But this is just a weird detour from the actual topic.

Ok, so I'll assume TJ. When it's forearm, then elbow...it's usually TJ. So hopefully back around this time next year and maybe part of the '25 pen. He has an electric arm, so...still not giving up!

Ok...literally NONE of that was "so confidence of Hiura's skills." I don't agree with most of what he's arguing, but can we PLEASE stop with this intellectually dishonest posts...or posts where we just make up what the last person said? Lets try what was ACTUALLY said; And you read THAT to suggest he's; SOOO confident in his hitting ability, lets see if he can come close to Ryan Braun in career hits? That is NOT what he was saying. HE'S SAYING HE'S AN UPGRADE OVER WHAT WE'VE HAD AT DH. That he should have gotten a chance earlier when Winker was putting up a sub .600 OPS, when Tellez went two months with an OPS of ~.450. When we couldn't get ANY real production from 1B/DH and yet he's changed his stance in AAA, done everything that's been asked of him, has drawn the praise of the Brewers coaches and yet hasn't gotten a chance. Bottom line, this is just getting silly. People are bending themselves into pretzels trying to do the "so what you're actually saying is," argument when what has been said re; Hiura has been very plain spoken. Now the caveat that us fans may simply not understand save for Moose is that they plan to keep him as a MiLB Free Agent at 1.1M and then they'll have him on the roster next year cheaper and hopefully have a chance to reset his career in Milwaukee. But that's new information. The "Well Urias, Tellez, Adames, etc.... hit X last year so just because he hit well last year doesn't mean HIura will," is as silly an argument as how the words were twisted in this post. Nobody has said he WILL hit better. They're simply pointing out 1-Brewers production at the positions he plays. 2-Hiura did hit well last year...despite OFTEN NOT being given the opportunity to come back and play the day following a walk off of a multi-hit day...while also not being allowed to hit vs RHPers and asked to hit LHPer when he has reverse splits. 3-He did what the Brewers have asked of him. He changed his stance, he's cleaned up his mechanics JUST like Yelich did and he's performed well in AAA. It's all the more frustrating when you see the ABs they've given Voight, Brosseau, Tapia, Singleton, WINKER, Daniel Robertson(an equally terrible 2B), Billy McKinney, Sogard, Smoak, Saladino, Shaw, Schoop, Sogard again, ALL players who got multiple opportunities despite the majority having less success than Hiura. I really like the FO. I think they're building the Brewers, particularly long term in the right way, but the rationalization sometimes jus gets to be a bit too often the top.

1-I don't know what your deal with "offending" Adames is, but he's a SS who's got a history of being a power hitter. They sat him the day before you posted this and they sat him the day after. 2-Torro, this one is really strange. He has two good games with about 2 months between each other and you're talking about a tiny sample size. How do you send down a GG caliber CFer who's crushing lefties or really any OFer for him? It's REALLY not worthy of nothing over 20 ABs, the last of which coming in a blowout vs a journeyman pitcher who only throws in blowouts, hasn't thrown since and was literally given away for future considerations. Toro hasn't been a good hitter over the course of his career and his K's are up, BBs are down, his Exit Velocity is down to a career worst. Again...I don't find any of those particularly important or relevant, but if you're going to use a 2 hit game in May and then a 3 hit game in June(which account for the majority of his hits this year...I guess it is relevant). 3-I really don't know how to respond to the cherry picking of players X have gotten noticeably worse. Adames got DRAMATICALLY better coming to Milwaukee. He's struggling this year. Tellez was a part time player who's OPS jumped 200 points when he came to Milwaukee. Urias was considered a bust, came to Milwaukee and had back to back 3+ WAR seasons(6.5 total) and this year he got hurt and couldn't move and they still flipped him for a starting pitcher. Yelich-20-21? Ok, so did they suddenly figure something out this year? Hiura gives you confidence, but it was their fault he struggled the previous two years? Last year we had the 6th best OPS in the NL. Our hitting was fine. Tyrone Taylor? This is where this feels really intellectually dishonest...he hit fine the last couple years...well even...for a 4th or 5th OFer. This year he's dealt with a relatively serious elbow injury he's playing through in addition to sporatic playing time and you think this is evidence they CAN'T develop hitters? I'm sorry, this sounds ridiculous and I'M-AGREENG with you that we should see Hiura(though the argument that we get to retain him and he's not a MiLB FA and they can bring him back after this season certainly makes his lack of opportunities make a lot more sense. The Brewers have guys who have struggled with injuries this year or just struggled. What about Monastario? He's been an exceptional bat off the bench. Frelick? Turang has been improving quite a bit since he got here. Contreras has handled the everyday catching duties and performed well. Yelich, again, can't blame the Brewers for his down years and then they don't get credit for a huge bounce back season. Do you not see how contradictory that is? Same with Hiura(which...I think it's silly to say he's proven anything other than he deserves a chance). I'm realizing this really doesn't have anything to do with Hiura(namely because you mention Adames far more than Hiura). I'm curious what they SHOULD be doing with Adames? It's really hard to keep track of your grievances beyond Hiura.

I don't think Trout is going anywhere(and I really doubt the Angels would pay for the privilege). He's still the best player in the game outside of Anaheim IMO. 6.3 WAR last year despite the injury. I think the Angels will want him there for his chase for 500, 600 HRs, maybe if he can stay healthy, 3,000 hits(that's a bit of a reach, but could easily have a Molly like resurgence. It's still well within reason. He IS injury prone, but still 96th percentile in the league in sprint speed and I think the same in barrel rate. So...hell, if we could get him, I'd be giddy. I'd have him in LF and DH about 50/50. As for Yelich, I'd just trade him to hopefully get a couple of nice, younger prospects, bust mostly to get out from the deal(as I said, deferred money and all). I'd definitely take Alek Manoah back in return. 25 year old #2/3 starter? I know it's never going to happen. Yelich is gonna be a Brewer until he's 37 and they'll pay him ~2.4M for about 10 years after that. And that's probably a good thing. If you get one or two more years like this, then just a good OBP or '21 Yelly, you are getting your money's worth. But my thinking wasn't to get MLB ready talent back. We've got that either here or arriving shortly. It was just that I'd rather have an OF of Frelick/Wiemer/Mitchell/Chourio with Perkins, maybe Carlos Rodriguez in a year or so and then a clean payroll. It's more about imagining what the 2026 Brewers could look like. Misiorowski, Peralta, Ashby, Gasser, Rodriguez...Uribe, Payamps, Peguero... Guys like Pratt, Bitonti, Yophery, Lara, Guilarte(who knows who else) on the verge, Frelick(CF), Quero(C), Chourio(LF), Wilken(3B), Wiemer(RF), Black(2B), Boeve(1B) Turang(SS). And at that time...the Brewers would(will) owe Yelich almost exactly what they paid Cain over the next 3 season. Nobody wants to give up a player like Yelly when they're rolling, but that's the only time you can make a clean break. And hell, maybe the Angels are willing to trade Nolan Schanuel and that prep arm they went way over slot to get Barrett Kent. If they're desperate? But I wouldn't do it for a player of comparable value or for Springer in return because...well, I like him and that'd defeat the purpose. What makes it less likely is that he's got a No-Trade Clause(Full I believe). But for Alek Manoah? Definitely. The Angels would be more likely. Imagine Yelich/Trout/Ohatni 1-3 in the lineup? The Angels are the perfect short term thinking type team. So are the Padres. I guess I'll let the likelihood of it happening go, but I'll still defend the position...and wait for a year or three when everyone says, "too bad we didn't sell high on Yelich!"

Damn...I didn't even think about this. This was a big enough problem as it stood, but...this will be devastating for some programs that are struggling to compete financially as it is. The gap between the top programs and the rest is going to be that much more pronounced in those non-revenue sports...and it's going to be pretty pronounced in the revenue sports.

I never heard what happened with Yeager. It was his elbow, then he's been out for the season, so I assumed TJ. I take it that's not the case or you wouldn't be hoping he'd be healthy to start next year. So any updates?

This is exactly what I'd do. And I could see that team having a Reds like season(I think the Reds will fade, but they've certainly got their fan base excited). I'm taking it a step further with regard to Yelich, but...my opinion has already been rebuffed on here with regard to that, so...I'll let that go😏

That's an interesting idea. I'd need Seattle to take on 50M of that though. At that point, is it really worth it? He won't be back 100% likely until '25. That'd give you two years... That'd be kinda planning for year 2 of Chourio, Black, 3 of Frelick, Wiemer...etc... But is Seattle gonna pay 50M to let him walk? I don't know...maybe Seattle wants to go all in on Ohtani and stay out of the luxury tax next year and the Brewers take his salary next year and the Mariners pay it the following two years? I'm not a particular fan of France. I think you've got a better version of him in Black. You're not getting a big defensive upgrade from France to Black, so...just roll with Black.

If the offer was actually Lara and Adams, I'm fine seeing them roll with Anderson/Monastario at 3B. Toro I guess later on. That's just too much. That's two potential top 100 prospects as early as next year for a rental. I'm skeptical they could operate at a 180M payroll. It makes all the sense in the world that they're setting money aside for the stadium(though if they're going to pay for the stadium, then they should own the stadium). I don't believe it's 40M a year...or rather if it is, I don't believe they'd ever just take that 40M and put that right back into the team. If this was true, I'd be disappointed about them being kinda luke warm on Chourio. I don't know, most of it just seems like things you could make an educated guess on while pretending to be an insider. It's been reported they haven't offered Burnes, Woody or Adames extensions until Willy was this off-season(at least not since 2020, wouldn't be surprised if they offered the Peralta/Ashby extension after '19). I doubt Mark A would like a friend coming back and sharing all this information. At BEST I'd bet this is a guy who is friends with Attanasio's kids(just...at best). Attanasio isn't in the day to day. He's kept apprised of the impending moves or the front office runs them past him, but as far as I understand it, he's taken a step back and isn't in on every trade call or FA move. So again, just benefit of the doubt, I'd buy this is what Mark A is getting, passing SOME of the information onto his son and then his son is asking and he's just kinda throwing BSing him a bit. "Yeah, they checked in on Ohtani and all the big names, too expensive, Burnes 1% chance he signs," which...that last part is truly breaking news!

I think you're a little off the mark with some of this. I'm as big of a Hiura defender as there is on here, BUT we should keep in mind...he was bad in Sept. He got regular ABs and he struggled. It feels like a lot of people arguing against Hiura getting ABs aren't doing so in good faith, so lets be honest. He was hitting the ball HARD...when he hit it and he went into a prolonged slump. It's ALSO true that he was poorly handled when he was hitting well in that he'd be benched the day after a 2-4 with a big HR. Toro...he has an exceptionally small sample size and a 3 hit game that I don't really think is all that significant. Who do you think we should have sent down instead of him? Adames-He's a Gold Glove caliber SS, he's kinda the heart of the team and there's nobody close to pushing him at SS. And I say that as a fan who's much higher on Turang than most others(I've said I think he's a Trea Turner-ish type player). But then you're scrambling to fill 2B. You COULD put Monastario there with Anderson at 3B and Santana, but Adames has a history and has earned the chance to be in there everyday. That said, they HAVE been sitting Willy more. I think he's just pressing, but I'd still start him everyday personally. I think you're connecting some things that aren't necessarily related. I also feel like questioning this puts you in the "anti-FO" group by some and they get a bit overly defensive(which is much why this is 14 pages long as those of us who want to see Hiura). The FO doesn't always get it right. They're not infallible. They make poor decisions. DFA Aguilar and Choi are two examples, but...just because they're generally run well doesn't mean they can't be wrong here or that you cant' question it.

Urias-Injured Adames-Still playing everyday Rowdy-Injured+still playing everyday when not on the IL(though still injured if you believe the forearm issue). Taylor-Injured+still playing regularly This argument would be exponentially more valid if the Brewers had given Hiura at bats and THEN he struggled, went down to AAA and people were asking why he's not getting ANOTHER chance. But that you just cited 4 players who the Brewers gave ample opportunity to seems to contradict the point you were making. And you will I'm sure reply by citing the defensive versatility those players provide(sans Rowdy, but the other 3 are either versatile or in Willy's case, elite). And then I'd point out we're talking about having him DH or play 1B where Rowdy isn't exactly Keith Hernandez himself.

Ahhh...THAT could make a lot of sense then. So they can give this guy half his salary, put him on the 40 and they'd have the ability to send him up and down? If that's the case, that'd just...completely change the level of annoyance I have when I think about him in AAA. That would make a lot more sense...I mean, it still doesn't seem like the confidence in Hiura overfloweth...ok.

Yeah, this is all just silly. There have been so many times we've put Winker out there or Tellez with a two month run of a .450 OPS or whatever. You're not bringing him back unless he earns a spot with the Brewers. They're not going through arbitration and paying him...probably a modest raise to ~3M unless you plan on playing him and why would they if they haven't this year when he's been in AAA when we've been just brutal at the plate. I guess it'll just be a emergency option if Canha gets hurt+Winker DFAed(which has to happen) and then Tellez keeps struggling or...who even knows by this point. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Hiura puts a .250/.330/.440 line next year wherever he goes.

Just...swap out Chicago for Gotham.