BrewerFan

I don't disagree with this. If you have to give up Fischer, Dinges, Knoth and Adamczewski, are you doing it? The best comp I can think of for a trade like this would be the Astros trading for Randy Johnson... though, he actually lost his two playoff starts, he was a dominant, overpowering lefty. Houston gave up a lot for him. Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia and a innings eater who had little value. A LOT of trade value(maybe 70 WAR for their careers) traded away, but you got probably the most dominant pitcher to be traded in the last 30 years in a playoff race. That's what I'd be expecting and assuming health, you could then go with a rotation of... Skubal, Mis, Harrison vs the LAD and Woodruff as the #4. Hope he can give you 4-5 innings. You'd have, again, hopefully Sproat as a long man out of the pen. I think he's so close to figuring it out. I'd hate to include him in a trade and I could see Detroit wanting him... But a trade that would be worth it and would hurt would be Fischer, Adamsczewski, Letson and maybe Wilken or Adams. Of all the trades the last few seasons, I've been pretty against most of them, but this would have the ripple impact where you might have to go for it and if Fischer becomes a .850 OPS guy with 30 HRs, Adamczewski a 3-4 WAR guy who can play 2B/LF, maybe CF with his speed(we're not playing him there, but I think he could)... then Letson is a big upside guy and Wilken/Adams are guys we have to add but who probably don't have spots available until 2028 when Vaughn is gone anyway. Jett Williams is another option with Jesus Made on the way up. You'll still have those premium prospects, you'll still have young pitching, Priester is now a question mark, but hopefully someone who with his age can come back like Wheeler or Merril have and leaves you with a very nice rotation. Plus, the lefty vs the Dodgers with Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman? There's never a perfect time, but this is close to as good as it gets.

Aren't they ALL right behind home in that little section? I'd imagine the 500 dollar seats are directly behind home, that first row, but that's really not much... for those type of tickets to a professional sports event. What's "that much" is obviously relative, but for those seats and the benefits that go with them, I think that's very reasonable.

Ok... but why are we comparing last year and this year from Mis to just Burnes best year? I wouldn't, but I understand where you're coming from. Pena is soo talented and then Braylon Payne is so undervalued that he's the one guy I'd take off the table... at least as long as he's valued as being not one of our top 10 prospects and outside the top 100. His upside is... just enormous and IMO 3rd behind just Made and Pena... it's just I do not think his value reflects that. It's probably more likely that he ends up a 4th OFer, but with his speed, frame, the power he's already showing and he's still just 19. He could easily add 20 pounds of good weight over the next 2 years, turn into a GG left fielder and if he can improve that hit tool juuust a bit, be a .265/.380/.500 type hitter who has 30/30 tools. Again, not likely, we know "toolsy" OFers often miss, but I like him too much. I get that may be counter intuitive, but... I just don't think the trade value matches his potential and would prefer Fischer/Jett who are both more highly regarded. I think the Tigers would inside on a top 3 prospect, another guy who is at least in that ~10 range and then a 3rd piece like Letson, Hardin, Knoth(another guy I wouldn't move due to his value relative to upside). Luke Adams and Brock Willken though... throw them into the deal as we pretty much have to either trade or add them or someone will surely take them each this off-season.

It's... RARE that it's fun to watch your team play defense...(the very little defense the other 7 players played). I keep thinking he hasn't peaked yet, that in a few years, he's going to probably lose a couple MPH, but still be throwing 98-101 and then his other pitches can be so-so nasty, he just doesn't need them(he threw a change CB last night that was sooo filthy)... but I guess how much more dominant can you get?

I'm with you on everything up until "they're just not important in today's calculus." No, they still VERY much are. They're still more likely to buy a stadium once or twice a year AT the gift shop(Which is huge vs buying it online). They're going to be repeat customers and there are more of them. You can both treat them good and give the fans who have a private box or whatever, the appropriate service given how much they spent. And by the way, the luxury boxes, I've been lucky enough to sit in them quite a few times... it's really just free beer and that's mostly it. There were brats and nachos there for some, but the seats were the best part. Whatever they cost, they weren't worth the price I'm sure. But 245 for seats right behind home? That DEFINITELY seems worth it if you are a big brewers fan. It's a lot of money, I'm not saying I'm going to sign up, but it's 20K for a couple for the half season package. Food, parking, great seats? You extend Made and Mis and I'll sign up for half a season for 2 seats! Throw in Turang, I'll go the full season!

Lara 116 WRC+ in Biloxi Chourio 112 WRC+ in Biloxi Over half of those 1100 career ABs came in the Southern League(612) where he... acquitted himslf just fine. Category Stat League Rank Walks (BB) 86 1st Doubles (2B) 32 1st Runs (R) 79 1st Games Played 136 1st At-Bats (AB) 513 1st Stolen Bases (SB) 44 2nd Hits (H) 132 T-4th Now... obviously we're not expecting Lara to be anything near Chourio(I don't even think Chourio is close to what Chourio will be). But his K rate and his performance after some VERY aggressive promotions where he performed well-well above league average? That doesn't seem like a net negative. With regard to AAA... I think spending a year at AAA is maybe the least important level. AA is the level where you face the elite arms. AAA is more pitchers than throwers, but not the same high end talent.

I don't think Chourio's defense was EVER considered to be on the same level as Lara's as a minor leaguer. I don't recall Chourio being called a future Gold Gover in CF by people in the Brewers organization, and BA put a 60 field, 50 arm grade on him coming up, Luis Lara has a 70 field, 60 arm, he's played CF the whole way up, Chourio was more of a projection(and remains one, he's still at an age when many are prospects, so even using Chourio "against" him falls flat in my opinion, but I also believe it's inaccurate. And I believe it was Badler that said if not for PCA, he may be the best defensive CF they've seen in the last 20 years... but I can't say that for certain, only that I listened to a pod in which someone said as much on BA. But, obviously you can reserve judgement. I just think it's going to be hard for this to be a bad deal... and it could end up a great deal for the Brewers. I also think we're REALLY underestimating his ceiling AND overstating the K rate. The Southern League and he had a K rate of ~16%? What are we looking for? But, back to his celling... Not his most likely outcome, but the BEST outcome you can hope for from a guy who has consistently been VERY good and has been as good as he has this year at 21 and has been a couple years younger than the league average at every level... I think it's a bit higher. If nothing else, I think it's fair to say his celling is more Stolen Bases than our DH who's dealt with back issues has averaged the last 4 years and missed a lot of time(Yelly). I'd put celling at a .300/.390/.435 ~10-15 HRs, 40 2B, 40-50 SBs, GG caliber defense in CF. Floor is probably .230/.340/.340 ~5 HRs and 25 SBs and very good defense in CF. Both assume he can hold onto his job and stay healthy. This is a guy who is a consensus top 100 prospects right now, #50 on BA's top 100(up from 99 to start the year), 91 I think on MLB pipeline and top 100 on Fangraphs and ESPN and even top 45 on Baseball Prospectus... which does NOT favor smaller high contract profiles. I think that's a low ceiling. I mean, again, the absolute best we can envision Lara doing is .264/.358/.410 (15 HR/20 SB)?

Yeah, that is kinda one of the reasons I think Payne has so much upside. That 6'2 180LB frame that could turn into 6'2 200 and that exit velo could come further.

I think he can hit .240/.330 and be a 4-5 WAR player. His CF defense is... out standing. As long as he doesn't try and "rob" a HR that's 40 feet over his head(or in his case, hits the yellow line on the wall in CF)... he should be good!

ORCL today is a going to be a... interesting little data point for this discussion. 553B in backlogs as of last quarter. The market wants to know if their Capex is turning into revenue, how much of that backlog is being realized. I JUST bought a few shares. Just because of the 12.5% implied volatility. One of us will look more or less right tonight(though, it'll take years for either to be actually proven right... at least in my case, @owbccould be proven right in the near term).

I think it's ultimately SMR's, but that's... a whole cadre of regulatory issues, but those are currently going through the NRC, EPA... and I think you'll start to see them going up, and they can use spent fuel from larger nuclear reactors. I have OKLO in an account for my kids. I think it has the chance to be a massive, game changing innovation and I believe they have one operational that... should help expedite other reactors. As opposed to running on Natural Gas, this is pretty environmentally friendly. But that solution is hardly going to solve the issue in the very near term which is actually pretty bullish for NVDA and AMD IMO. Rubin is far more energy efficient than Hopper was(10-15X more efficient) and AMD's GPUs, MI450 series were actually more efficient which forced NVDA to re-design RUBIN and keep it slightly more efficient(someone who is more tech savvy on here would be able to explain this better, but but because Energy is such a massive bottleneck, it's cost efficient to upgrade the GPUs. That's why everyone was projecting this year the AI CapEx would cool down and now you have companies saying they're going to spend over 800B from what was projected to be 440. And that's just the 5 hyperscalers(AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL) and that number is expected to exceed 1.1T next year... while using ~13% of the Electricity in the Country. So... it's a huge issue, but it's also why NVDA is projecting 1T in revenue JUST on Blackwell and Rubin through the end of next year+200B on their CPUs, their licensing, I don't know if their gaming is even relevant any longer and they've guided for margins to remain the same OR grow. True for today, but isn’t that the exact limitation 'agentic AI' is trying to solve? With companies like Broadcom making custom chips and Nvidia integrating Groq, the focus has shifted to giving models a few seconds of 'thinking time' to self-correct complex logic, rather than just building a giant, power-hungry brain. Probably better for humanity, but... which companies? I can't see the trillion dollar companies giving it up after they've spent ALL the money they have to just go back. I don't see this becoming widely adopted by banks and... well, the other sectors I've listed, but if you have AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT, ORCL, OpenAI, Anthropic, SoftBank all working on this... it feels like a game of Poker where you've already bet an AWFUL lot to fold when you are working toward the solution(or a... flush, whatever). These CEO's have effectively said as much. Zuckerberg He openly admitted that the industry might end up "misspending a couple hundred billion dollars," but argued that folding or building too slowly is a much higher risk. If you drop out of the pot and a rival hits "superintelligence," you are permanently out of the game. Sundar Pichai (Google): "For us, the risk of underinvestment is far greater than the risk of overinvestment." These companies have hundreds of billions of revenue and I think they're going to keep pushing. I think they envision Robots(I'm thinking of AMZN) running their fulfillment centers. The idea that the AI boom is reliant on a "circular financing" loop completely falls apart when you look at the actual scale of real, incoming corporate cash. Strategic investments in infrastructure partners like CoreWeave aren’t speculative fluff; they are backed by a massive, supply-constrained $100 billion revenue backlog anchored by the biggest buyers on earth. The return on investment isn't some vague 2030 promise, it is hitting corporate balance sheets right now. Despite pouring hundreds of billions into infrastructure, the 2-to-4 trillion-dollar hyperscalers are growing top-line revenue at historic rates while expanding their operating margins. Amazon is growing total revenue at 16% year-over-year DESPITE $200 billion in CapEx. That growth is being heavily driven by AWS, 28% year-over-year to just under $40 billion in quarterly revenue. Most importantly, their operating margins inside AWS are expanding, proving the cash generation is getting more efficient even as they build out capacity. Microsoft posted 18% total revenue growth and 29% cloud growth year-over-year. Here again, their overall operating margins climbed to 46.7%, up from around 44% three years ago. Alphabet -22% year-over-year total revenue increase to $110 billion, with Google Cloud coming in over 20B. Their overall operating margins have steadily expanded from 31.9% two years ago to 36.1% last quarter. Meta Revenue 33% to $56 billion. Even with half their budget going toward infrastructure, their operating margins are STILL ~41% which is up nearly 4 percentage points over the last two years(though down from the same quarter last year... but still, up 4%). And again, you have 1.1T in backlogs for Alphabet and MSFT I guess I'll just have to agree to disagree. I think we're going to have bumps in the road, but again, the fundamental difference between this buildout and the Dot Com buildout is... revenue. These companies are investing because OpenAI is generating roughly $2 billion a month in actual, cash-in-hand revenue, a $24 billion annual run rate. For a company THAT young and that just just released its main consumer product a few years ago, that is the fastest revenue growth in tech history. Even their closest competitor, the younger(and better IMO) Anthropic, is hitting a massive $30 billion run rate. Do I think they're worth their valuations? No. I sure won't be buying those anymore than I'll be buying SpaceX, but my concern had been OpenAI defaulting and now I don't think that'll happen, and even if it does, the companies that have invested in it, they're big enough to absorb that. By the end of this year, the private sandbox era is officially over. Their books, audited revenues, and real-world corporate margins are about to face full public scrutiny on Wall Street for OpenAI and Anthropic(I like Anthropic and NOT OpenAI so much). If the revenue wasn't real, they wouldn't be racing to open up their financial statements to the SEC right now. Bumps in the road are guaranteed, but comparing a sector generating tens of billions in software sales to a 1999 tech company that didn't even have a product is just a... flawed comparison in my opinion. If I ever learned to be succinct, I'd just say, "I disagree because Michael Burry agrees and after the "the Big Short," he's been so comically wrong every time, that in and of itself gives me absolute conviction." But last word- None of what I'm saying is arguing that I DON'T think a recession or a crash is possible... but I am saying, I don't believe it'd be because of the AI revolution. Honestly, I think the AI revolution brings on the real harm and pain in about 10-15 years when we're looking at massive unemployment, multiple trillionaires, the concentration of wealth that'd make the great depression blush and the massive impact(or influence) those companies who are people(but not really people) will have.

I actually see it completely differently... comparing this to the dot com bubble completely misses how the economics work here. In the 90s they built empty lines and just prayed people would use them, but right now we are in a massive supply shortage driven by actual corporate demand. Look at the cloud backlogs alone, Microsoft is sitting on nearly 700 billion in backlog and Google is over ~470 billion... that is over a trillion dollars in signed contracts they physically cannot fulfill fast enough because they don't have the compute and they're not growing as much as AWS. Google's CEO literally said their cloud revenues would be significantly higher if they could just get the infrastructure to meet the demand. This isn't a bunch of pre revenue hype plays, Nvidia is trading at a totally reasonable valuation for its earnings growth... and their older 2020 Ampere chips are renting out for more than they originally sold for because the market is so bottlenecked. The ROI is already hitting the bottom line, AWS is what's driving Amazon, and Meta is going to save hundreds of billions in worker costs by not having people monitor content as things move to agentic AI. I think a lot of this is just bad for people. I don't know how to say that more plainly. It LOOKS to me and to a lot of other people like there's going to be a lot of jobs that will be lost, but we also don't know. We've said that about every major shift. The internet, the assembly line... history has shown us this over and over, technological innovation has triggered labor anxiety. We're in the...what, Fourth Industrial Revolution in this Countries history, Internet, mass production/assembly line, and... I guess the steam engine(working backward) or the shift from an agrarian economy to heavy machinery that created a massive demand for Iron workers and mechanics and more that I don't know or can't think of(steal workers I guess). And LLMs and cloud are just the first wave, agentic AI and robotics are going to be absolutely massive... it's not FOMO propping up the market(or not JUST FOMO), it's a trillion dollar backlog of companies standing in line waiting for compute, it's trillions of dollars that have yet to be fulfilled. The FOMOs The IPOs... of course the ones I assume you're talking about are OpenAI, Anthropic(maybe SpaceX which is ridiculous, will probably run up to ~200 before people start selling off and if I was smarter, I'd probably short it right after it comes out). I hope that retail isn't dumb enough to chase these particular IPOs. There were some that were pretty nice to get in and get out of... I was lucky with CRCL and CRWV(they have 100B in backlogs as well FWIW)...CBRS(or Cerebras whatever the ticker symbol is). I got out well before the top on each and didn't put in much, but these upcoming IPOs, yeah, I'm not touching them. They're insane. So I agree there's some big questions about some of these upcoming IPOs and valuations, but you have 85% of the companies in the S&P who are beating earnings. The bottom line of these companies are strong and despite the terrible macro conditions, a War, inflation going back up, Tariffs(which were terrible, but also a great opportunity... though I think there was a lot of shady things going on there). I also think you have to look at the fundamentals of the companies and they remain just incredible. We're in June(a historically bad month) or a mid-term year(a historically bad year) we've gone from the expectation of MULTIPLE cuts to now a potential hike, and a WAR!!! But I still think as we start next quarters earnings reports which... the big ones are a bit out yet(though ORCL is tonight with a 12% implied move) I think you'll continue to see beats and raises and more validation.

And we will find out in 6 minutes if the bloodbath continues or if we're going to be going green for the foreseeable future. I am fully expecting the chart to look like the movie Carrie. But hey, maybe CPI will come in at 3.8. Or maybe it won't matter that much since it doesn't seem like the market and the actual economy are even tangentially related anymore! Edit-Nope! 4.2% and Essentials came in at 2.9%. Another hot print... but I feel like this was close enough to estimates that the market was expecting this, so it shouldn't be... too bad. Premarket movement is fine.

I nearly sold AMD at 360 because I thought it was expensive and AVGO at 400. I waited a couple weeks and sold AMD at 515 and AVGO at 470 going into the print. I didn't think we'd see them dump like they have(mostly AVGO) I just didn't see the room for growth. I'm still all in on NVDA, TSM and buying AMZN (Mainly for my kids funds as I expect them to be the 10T market cap in the future if not first, then 2nd after NVDA and perhaps replacing NVDA). I don't see how they don't ultimately become the biggest winners. They win in every way when it comes to AI. Biggest thing I did was buy the 30 year when it got up to ~5.2%. Got it from 5% to 5.15%. Hoping that in a couple years those rates will be down to 2.5-3% and I can still sell them for a nice return while also collecting a little cash in the meantime. But NVDA going down on the earnings they had a few weeks ago... if this was an AI bubble, they'd be a lot more expensive coming off arguably the best quarter ANY company has EVER had(and if it wasn't, next Quarter almost certainly will be and it looks like that will continue to be the case successfully at least through F'28). Hell, they're going to be a value stock in another quarter or two!

I can't imagine anyone outside of Northwest Indiana(you know, the home of the Bears) would disagree. Reed I think beats Doubs in the open market, even with what looks to be an incredible WR class next year(makes me wonder if that played some role in these two re-signing now).

Easy Harold. This isn't an obituary.... we don't even know what happened yet.

How are they alienated? Because they can't afford the best seat in the house? They still can't. The Suites are... MUCH nicer. So what? It's a businesses job to make money, not make everyone feel good. And 245 is... a lot for a game, but I'd be willing to bet, for seats directly behind home with those amenities, we'd still be among the cheapest in Baseball(maybe the As temporarily cheaper). 15 bucks for a beer is more offensive than a 245 price on seats down right behind the plate.

Lets see if we can't add Biloxi to that list soon!

I don't think this impacts Payne in the least bit. Payne is a long, 6'2 lefty with a lot of projection left, hitting for power, drawing walks, did I mention hitting for power, great speed, better plate discipline... I love Lara and think he could be an outstanding CFer, but Payne's got a much higher ceiling(lower floor also) but... why give up on him now? I mean, it'd be one thing if you waited until after this year when I think he'll be the Brewers biggest riser and he's being valued as a top 50 prospect, but... I'd much rather see him get some time in AA and see if he's our RFer of the future. Chourio/Lara/Payne? Payne MAY end up the best of those 3. Probably not going to take any bets on that, but he has as much upside as anyone in our system outside of Made and Pena IMO. I will take the Made extension however.

I think the MOST I've seen you post in a period of time was about the trade of Hader. How trading our Closer mid-season hurt the team so bad and how you wonder what other impacts that had, did that lead to the Brewers pushing Stearns out(of course not)... But now when it comes to trading our closer mid-season(and Chad Patrick while we deal with a number of injuries to pitchers)... this is well thought out? I don't know what "doesn't follow a template" means, but... genuine conviction isn't always a good thing. Cults have genuine conviction.

Front Row Amy? Huh... never heard of her. Any identifying characteristics you could give me, maybe I could watch closer and see if I notice her?

I... edited it and shortened it as well! I DID kinda think we'd already mentioned this though!

How? How is that comparing it to other WR deals? All people(around the league, Scouts, Players, the NFLPA) cares about is the NEW money, so it's 4/110.5. So really the only "Apples to Apples," is the extension and then the total value of the money remaining. They are two separate contracts. We're talking about how much money he has remaining on his deal and how much he had added to that. He had about ~5.5M remaining. From all reports(and the particulars could change) he got a 4/110.5M extension. That would mean the value of what he has LEFT on his deal... is 5/116. Again, still not the number people are looking at, I just don't get why you think this is an "Apples to Apples," comparison? I also don't believe people are citing the remaining contract, 5/116 to make the contract "look" any better or worse, it's just simply a fact. That's the remaining obligation the Packers have to him if he plays for 5 years. For example, Tee Higgins got a 4 year 115M extension. He was a 2nd rd pick like Watson. He was franchised twice prior. So is his deal really a 6 year 161.8M with ~90M GTD because you're adding the value of what he'd already been paid? Of course not. I'm really not understanding why adding last years signing bonus should be added to this years extension. The TOTAL amount owed to him, ie, still to be paid is... relevant only insofar as it tells you what he is still owed over the next 5 years and it's primarily Packers fans that care. The rest of the league is probably indifferent.

I don't think they're making it look any type of way. He had 5.5M left to be paid out to him. I think to compare it to other signings, 5/115.5 is the "Apples to Apples" comparison. You may be assigning too much... importance on people trying to make it "look discounted." I don't think this changes things either way, it's simply what was owed to him yet and what they're agreeing to pay him moving forward. "This year" may have cost us 11M, but we paid the majority of it in 2025. I also don't think many people are focusing on the 5th years money just as was the case with Love(Which was counted the same way as this one).

Tonight, hopefully tomorrow, drop the suspension... good to go.