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Terry

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Everything posted by Terry

  1. Terry
    I really liked Drury as a bounce back candidate, but he already signed a minor league deal with White Sox.
  2. Terry
    Some tidbit I found interesting. Even though his fastball didn't create tons of whiffs back in 2023, The ride did create a jaw-dropping 17.9% pop up rate amongt his BIP against fastballs, which explained why he had a 29.1 infield flyball rate.
  3. Terry
    I believe the first major league signing was Grant Wolfram?
  4. Terry
    I think the shape change may be in correlation to the arm angle change? Cause all of his fastballs have lower IVB, kind of like the changes Jose Quintana made in season. Also interestingly, his sinkers have strong tendency to produce groundballs despite the non-optimal location. GB% amongst his BIP against sinkers improved from 60.5% to 69.5% and launch angles went from 2° to -5° this season.
  5. Terry
    I won't deny that, but his numbers between starter and reliever back in 2022 weren't even that far off if you dig into statcast numbers. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=SP&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=676879&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_swing_miss_percent=on#results A dominant reliever is certainly nice, but a potential mid rotation is definitely better. If he's fully healthy, I'm almost 100% certain they will start him in spring training and see what happens.
  6. Terry
    His advanced numbers back in 2022 as a starter was .306xwoba, 0.374xSLG, 0.366xwobacon, which is actually quite similar to the numbers Peralta posted this year(also similarly had homerun issue which inflated Ashby's FIP), whom I assumed you wouldn't call a no. 4 or 5 starter. His release point was a lot different from the past, even varied between games this season, meaning he's likely searching for what best suits him to begin the season. That early control issue is certainly not a norm. If he can get his BB/9 under 4.0 (not an easy task I know), he get the ingredient of at least being a no.3 starter.
  7. Terry
    So...a starter with a 4.06FIP and 3.72xERA is bad nowadays I see. There's absolutely no reason not to try stretching him out at spring training if he's fully healthy. He already showcased his ability to produce whiffs and groundballs and that his ceiling is probably the same as Peralta's, If we're seriously considering going deep in the playoffs, we're gonna have to give him a chance and hope it works. Edit: And I don't think the team had ever considered him as a DFA candidate. Yes he had command issue, but this year's early-on disatrous control issue mainly stem from his arm angle change that he's not accustomed to initially after the injury. Not because of the role he's in.
  8. Terry
    I get that Ashby as a starter back in 2022 is sometimes frustratng, but saying that he's terrible is a stretch. I'm all board on the starter experiment if he's healthy.
  9. Terry
    Thanks for the reply. Here's the pitch movements from his triple A appearance using @Tjstats app. Not sure why he only threw one slider even though the cutter is getting torched (0.510 xSlg against righties). Keith Law did mention that "The command and control are too good to give up on him as a back-end starter even if it’s still fastball or changeup 90 percent of the time." in his preseason farm analysis, so I'm holding slight hope here.
  10. Terry
    I wonder if anyone can enlighten me on the pitch designing part. I assume Henderson, as a pronation bias pitcher would benefit more from a gyro slider than the current cutter or slider that he had no feel for?
  11. Terry
    Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi are two other SPs I would like. As for controllable assets, Angels' pitchers might be worthy targeting (someone like Patrick Sandoval), although they might not think they are sellers lol.
  12. Terry
    As I mentioned last time his release point changed a bit, which might be beneficial to his control issues. Here's the horizontal and vertical point for the past five years. As you can see, he lowered his release point and moved toward third base year by year. And overall zone rate went from : 2020-2021(MLB): 48.2% 2022: 46.7% 2023: 43.1% 2024: 51.1% this year Also I mentioned that there seems to be some arm side run pitches this spring training, turns out it already showed up during 2022 MiLB season. Here's the full plot from the past few years after sorting out the pitch movement raw data from the past few seasons on statcast. (Left: glove side; Right: arm side) (2020-2021 MLB) (2023 MiLB) (2024 MiLB) There's always some cut action on his fastball hence the unimpressive IVB, and from 2022 some arm side action pitches were added. Separations on some of these fastballs reached 20 inches even though there were still labeled as 4 seam(which I think should be seen as 3 pitches). Also the adjustment of his release point toward third base aided his control of fastballs in small sample sizes so far(shifted his focus to inner-high/outside-high against RHH/LHH where he got most whiffs from for past few years). Both offerings generate over 40 whiff% in triple A this year, super excited to see if he can replicate his success!
  13. Terry
    Obviously it's not sustainable duh. But with this kind of contact instead of whiffing and chasing like last year, it might kept him around 90WRC+, which by his standards is definitely Quantum Leap.
  14. Terry
    Definitely some changes in changeup as well, more horizontal movement compared to last years'. Might explain the strategic change toward left handed hitters(more focused on inner part of the plate).
  15. Terry
    Interview of Junis uploaded by Dominic Cotroneo for anyone interested. Today's outing might be a glimpse of his strategy moving forward. I believe the circled one with less movements might be his cutters rather than sliders(shape slightly different compared to 2022's version?). Sprinkle some 4-seam and cutters from time to time, but mostly gonna be sliders/sinkers.
  16. Terry
    Matt Arnold did a great job at stacking up bullpen depth in recent years. I'm excited to see who we could churn out this year!
  17. Terry
    Always fun tracking relievers performance in ST games to see who's the new Feyereisen/Boxberger. Matthew wrote some brilliant articles about long-shot relievers like Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig. A lowkey underrated signing last year caught my attention after today's game. Enoli Paredes was an important member of Astros' bullpen back in 2020, which was also his most successful season in the majors (3.63FIP) but even back then control was a bit iffy (4.79BB/9). Sliders had over 40 Whiff% for about 30 innings span across 2020/2021 seasons, but fastballs were inconsistent despite sitting roughly upper-90s. It seems like some changes were made during the offseason. The horizontal movement toward arm side is noticeable and quite different than the shape of 4 seam, so I went on to compare with those from 2022 and last season in Triple A. It appears to be a newly-added weapon(2-seam) incorporated since last year, although still labeled as 4-seam on statcast? Also release point changed slightly as well, as he lowers it a bit in today's game. So far in 4 innings of work (extremely small sample size), he only walked once. Obviously there's no guarantee these changes would lead to his success, but still always quite entertaining to track fringe player's progress.
  18. Terry
    "but he needs to show regular contact" You do realize that Mitchell had higher whiff rate than Wiemer right...right?
  19. Terry
    You literally post this nonsense before on Brewcrewball... Jesus, just stop.
  20. Terry
    Last year Bases Empty: 83WRC+ Men on base: 106WRC+ Men in scoring: 114WRC+ By your logic, he should absolutely trying to hit HRs more.
  21. Terry
    Sanchez bat is better than Haase, while defense is miles better even if you count his early years. How anyone think this isn't massive upgrade is beyond me. Also assuming Contreras can just catch about 130 games is nuts and wishful thinking, if we actually sign some aging veteren like Turner or JD now that would really be taking away at bats from Yelich and rookies.
  22. Terry
    Never understand how Sanchez get so much hate, despite being above average offensively and defensively.
  23. Terry
    Interesting to see that there's a stark difference between Trackman's Barrel%(2% well below average) and this one's.
  24. Terry
    From my understanding, VAA will be affected by pre-tacked ball right? As it give four seam extra carries? BA article(https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-enhanced-grip-baseball-raising-concerns-strikeouts-in-double-a-southern-league/) did wrote that "Angels righthander Coleman Crow is averaging seven more inches of carry compared to last year." Which is a concern for me personally, ultimately might decide his ceiling.
  25. Terry
    Hart hit rate in August was 25.4%, while in September it's 38.9%. Slight increase in EV from 85.9% to 86.6%. If the source is correct(Justbaseball), they did mention that his 90th percentile exit velocity jump by 4 MPH compared to last year. Here's hoping that there's still room to grow. Still I think he's gonna have better numbers than any of our options at 1/3B last year. I'm wondering what's Turang's and Frelick's chase% and whiff% were like in Triple A.
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