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Terry

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Everything posted by Terry

  1. Terry
    Last year, there was inconsistent miss on his sliders It looks like he killed some vertical drop on it this year and was able to pound the zone with it yesterday. I would bet it was a downgrade from last year's version on Stuff model. But due to his premium velocity, it was an acceptable tradeoff if he has more control on it. 3 BBs seemed bad, but 65.8 Strike% is an above average number from a starter, which is nice to see and hopefully it sticks.
  2. Terry
    Some summary for Carlos Rodriguez for anyone who's interested, nothing major is changed though.
  3. Terry
    Oh for sure, I think the concept is to strip away the location factor so that if you have above average numbers, you will have more room for error even if you don't locate it well. I believe facility like Tread Athletics or Driveline use a much more simple version like In-zone top-third VAA though, which is a nice alternative.
  4. Terry
    Yeah I'm wondering how they define "average", as in VAA for similar pitch height and vertical release point? Still trying to recreate my version of it.
  5. Terry
    Here's some summary card for Freddy, certainly some interesting change from today's start, also I'm curious if there's any accessible"VAA Above Average" leaderboard out there?
  6. Terry
    A couple charts I made. From today Last season It seems like there's some cut action to his fastball, not sure if it's intentional or simply because of release angle change. Really like his changeup, less velo differential with more movement separation. Also has a revamped curveball as well.
  7. Terry
    In this article With His Glove-Side Pitches Fine-Tuned, Connor Thomas Makes His Pitch for Brewers' Opening Day Roster written by Jack Stern, Thomas mentioned that Below is the Spin-Based/Observed Movement plot that I generate mimicking baseball savant's style. You can think of Spin-Based spin axis as the moment capture by Hawk-eye when releasing the ball. As you can see, all of his pitches come from extremely similar spin axis, based on the spin-mirroring and non-Magnus effect concept, hitters had a hard time differentiating these pitches out of hand. Here's another example that might help you furthur undertand this concept. Although here's the part I haven't figured out how to explain yet, Aside from the similar characteristic like his other arsenal out of hand, Thomas' cutter seemed to have more expected movement than average cutter from his arm slot. Let me know if you have an idea on how to approach this!
  8. Terry
    Fastball command was a bit off in this start. Cutter, Sliders' command still need some work as well and I think it would be best for him to start the season in AAA, but compared to last year I'm much more confident that he can at least stick as a back end starter. Below is the previous two starts.
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  9. Terry
    Some chart that I've been working on. It's obviously nice to see the usage of cutter and slider were up, and judging by shape, speed, spin rate it could be an average pitch. But from Zone% we can tell that control of those two pitches probably lags behind a bit.
  10. Terry
    Recommend reading these that I accidentally came across today(especially the first piece): Jose Quintana’s Unlikely Roll Continues Jose Quintana Buoys Beleaguered Brewers Rotation
  11. Terry
    One thing I found is that he kept lowering his arm angle in season. No idea as to why it worked, but batted ball data did improve massively. 1st half: 0.354xwoba / 0.397xwobacon 2nd half: 0.286xwoba / 0.302xwobacon
  12. Terry
    Oops, both of them could be just wild overthrown pitches tho, not necessarily a cutter.
  13. Terry
    I got a few observations. 1. Ashby had a new cutter and his sinkers have more drop. 2. Wolfram has more rise on his 4-seam and more horizontal movement on his 2-seam. (More separations between both pitches.)
  14. Terry
    I felt like every time I saw Contreras pat on dirt behind the plate it was always a fastball. Does this move actually confuse hitters haha?
  15. Terry
    I really liked Drury as a bounce back candidate, but he already signed a minor league deal with White Sox.
  16. Terry
    Some tidbit I found interesting. Even though his fastball didn't create tons of whiffs back in 2023, The ride did create a jaw-dropping 17.9% pop up rate amongt his BIP against fastballs, which explained why he had a 29.1 infield flyball rate.
  17. Terry
    I believe the first major league signing was Grant Wolfram?
  18. Terry
    I think the shape change may be in correlation to the arm angle change? Cause all of his fastballs have lower IVB, kind of like the changes Jose Quintana made in season. Also interestingly, his sinkers have strong tendency to produce groundballs despite the non-optimal location. GB% amongst his BIP against sinkers improved from 60.5% to 69.5% and launch angles went from 2° to -5° this season.
  19. Terry
    I won't deny that, but his numbers between starter and reliever back in 2022 weren't even that far off if you dig into statcast numbers. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=SP&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=676879&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_swing_miss_percent=on#results A dominant reliever is certainly nice, but a potential mid rotation is definitely better. If he's fully healthy, I'm almost 100% certain they will start him in spring training and see what happens.
  20. Terry
    His advanced numbers back in 2022 as a starter was .306xwoba, 0.374xSLG, 0.366xwobacon, which is actually quite similar to the numbers Peralta posted this year(also similarly had homerun issue which inflated Ashby's FIP), whom I assumed you wouldn't call a no. 4 or 5 starter. His release point was a lot different from the past, even varied between games this season, meaning he's likely searching for what best suits him to begin the season. That early control issue is certainly not a norm. If he can get his BB/9 under 4.0 (not an easy task I know), he get the ingredient of at least being a no.3 starter.
  21. Terry
    So...a starter with a 4.06FIP and 3.72xERA is bad nowadays I see. There's absolutely no reason not to try stretching him out at spring training if he's fully healthy. He already showcased his ability to produce whiffs and groundballs and that his ceiling is probably the same as Peralta's, If we're seriously considering going deep in the playoffs, we're gonna have to give him a chance and hope it works. Edit: And I don't think the team had ever considered him as a DFA candidate. Yes he had command issue, but this year's early-on disatrous control issue mainly stem from his arm angle change that he's not accustomed to initially after the injury. Not because of the role he's in.
  22. Terry
    I get that Ashby as a starter back in 2022 is sometimes frustratng, but saying that he's terrible is a stretch. I'm all board on the starter experiment if he's healthy.
  23. Terry
    Thanks for the reply. Here's the pitch movements from his triple A appearance using @Tjstats app. Not sure why he only threw one slider even though the cutter is getting torched (0.510 xSlg against righties). Keith Law did mention that "The command and control are too good to give up on him as a back-end starter even if it’s still fastball or changeup 90 percent of the time." in his preseason farm analysis, so I'm holding slight hope here.
  24. Terry
    I wonder if anyone can enlighten me on the pitch designing part. I assume Henderson, as a pronation bias pitcher would benefit more from a gyro slider than the current cutter or slider that he had no feel for?
  25. Terry
    Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi are two other SPs I would like. As for controllable assets, Angels' pitchers might be worthy targeting (someone like Patrick Sandoval), although they might not think they are sellers lol.
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