strawbossisevil

How is it absurd? Theroit posted a likely unsustainable BABIP last season. Why are we to just assume he could repeat that? It COULD happen. If you look at MLB history, not many have ever been able to sustain as high of an BABIP as Theriot had last season. The burden of proof is on you to explain why he could repeat those numbers. The average for BABIP generally hovers around .300, .350 (what Theriot had last season) is generally not sustainable. So if we expect him to put up a BABIP closer to league average, that puts him much closer to his '07 numbers. If that happens he is a rather large downgrade offensively from where he ended up in '08. I think the burden of proof is on someone to prove that his '08 numbers are sustainable. Perhaps you can enlighten me, how do you see it being likely for him to repeat last year's numbers? And no, 2008 was not a down year for the Cubs. Where did I say that? In fact, 2008 was a year where many of the Cubs hitters had BABIP at unsustainable levels, and where Dempster and Harden put up ERAs that they are unlikely to repeat. They played over their heads in that regard. It's possible, I suppose that one or two could repeat that luck, but I don't see it across the board.

http://www.scarysquirrel.org/ It's scary, really scary.

He's great except for what he doesn't do well. :-) I don't know what you wanted out of a reserve middle infielder MNBrew that would be better than Counsell. If the Hurricane could play SS we could have gone with him, but since he couldn't, we needed someone who could back up both middle infield positions. Especially since I'm guessing Hall will get about half of the starts at 3B.

I'd imagine if someone were to get hurt, then they would either sign someone or bring someone up from the minors. If Hart is struggling, perhaps they bring up Gillespie. If Hardy gets hurt, they bring up, Escobar. Etc. Most of our major prospects are right handed (except for Gamel). I see no reason why you couldn't break it down the way I did. I think if we are honest, the addition of a righty is not worth quite as much as some like to think, especially if Macha uses his backup catcher. I think we have to be so lefty heavy on the bench because we are so right handed in our lineup, it makes sense that we'd be paired up to a point, as it makes our lineup just that much more flexible when giving certain players time off.

I still don't get how an ERA in the high 4s "is not very good" for a bottom of the rotation starter. Most teams would love to have that production from the bottom part of their rotation. Like I said, I could see McClung being theoretically equal to Suppan if they both had the same endurance going into this season. The problem is that they don't. Suppan has been consistently around 200 innings for most of his career. McClung is unlikely to have the stamina to go late into games and late into the season that Suppan does. Assuming, of course, that Suppan is healthy. The projections are unlikely to have taken into consideration any sort of injury he had last year. I find it a bit ridiculous to say it was not a factor at all, and not something that should at the very least be considered when looking at his projections. Also Suppan's really bad months were in July, around the time he went on the DL, and September. Before that point, he had put up ERAs of 5.19 in April , 2.56 in May, and 4.33 in June.

So essentially the situation where we would need a right handed pinch hitter would be when a left hander starts (since when a right hander starts we'll have either Hall or Hart on the bench). Which happens probably about 1 out of every 3 games or so. The game also has to be close in the late innings. Which happens probably about 1 out of every 2 games or so. On top of that it would have to be a situation where they would prefer to use the LH reliever against the Pinch Hitter rather than Fielder who would likely be up in the next inning. So maybe only half of the games that are close would they use the lefty against the pinch hitter, perhaps even less as they would probably only use the lefty if there were people on base. So we are talking about 15 AB per season on average, where it would be preferable to have a right handed batter rather than a lefty. In those 15 ABs, perhaps the lefty gets a hit 20% of the time, while the righty gets a hit 30% of the time. So the lefty would get 3 hits. The righty would get 4.5. So it looks like the difference between an all lefty bench vs. one that has a righty in it, is likely to be 1-2 hits over the course of an entire season. Is it worth spending a million or two million for a bench player for one or two hits? This of course assumes also that Macha won't use Rivera or Kendell as pinch hitters.

I like the move, the guy gets on 35% of the time, that's not too bad for a guy off the bench. Plus he plays pretty solid defense, which is nice.

And you can just pretend that Suppan didn´t pitch through an injury last year, which means he´s likely better than last year. Also you are not factoring in the fact that McClung does not have nearly as much stamina built up as Suppan. The only way they are on even terms is if you ignore those facts.

Well some teams are easier to look at than others (in the manner that I outlined in my previous post). The Cubs don´t have a single "rookie" player in the bunch, Marshall would be the closest. Every single player they have has enough past stats that we can look at what should be expected from them, pick up on trends, etc. What is astounding to me is just how many players on the Cubs had BABIP well above the sustainable level last year. They had next to no one come in below average in that regard. The law of averages will likely hit the Cubs pretty hard this next season. Like I said, I see them as much weaker up the middle (2b, SS, CF) and most likely also in the starting rotation. People like Dempster and Harden may be good pitchers, but they are not likely to be as good as they were last year. Does this mean that they are not the favorite to win the division? I still think they are, every other team in the division has big question marks. But they are most definitely not a shoo in. Their team looks pretty solid on paper, but so did last year´s Tigers. It´s why we play the games instead of just crown a winner at the beginning of the year.

Someone in this thread said that, but didn´t provide any evidence that he said anything in that regard. I´ll believe that he said that when I see it.

We are talking about the Suppan who has had an ERA in the mid to upper 4s the last few seasons, right (and was negatively impacted by his injury last season, thus leading to an ERA in the upper 4s)? I´m just checking, because I really don´t see how a guy who is going to have an ERA in the mid 4s shouldn´t be in the rotation, especially when he is making his rather significant income to log a lot of innings. I really think people have stopped looking objectively on this site at Suppan. Look at the stats, and understand he is not the type of guy you generally bump completely from the rotation, especially not for a guy like McClung who has limited history starting and would be far more likely to end up with an ERA in the 5s, rather than the 4s. And on top of that who is not nearly as stretched out as Suppan.

Ok, I thought I would jump in on the Cub topic. Let's compare who the Cubs have in '09, vs who they had in '08. 2008 - C Giovani Soto 2009 - Giovani Soto - His BABIP was .337 last season. Thus many of the predictions have him regressing slightly or holding steady. I mark this as a push for the Cubs in ´09. 2008 - 1B Derrek Lee 2009 - 1B Derrek Lee - Someone already mentioned that Lee was effected by luck in 2008. Unfortunately, they were wrong on what kind of luck. Lee also put up a higher than expected BABIP, post a BABIP of .333. He has maintained a pretty high BABIP throughout his career, but this was higher than average for him. He's also seen a drop in his BB% over the past few seasons, and since his wrist injury has seen his SLG% struggle to return to former levels. I think an OPS in the low .800s is probably all that can be expected from him at this point, which is what he put up last year even with the somewhat lucky BABIP numbers. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs in '09. 2008 - 2B DeRosa/Fontenot 2009 - 2B Miles/Fontenot - Someone has already mentioned that Fontenot had a BABIP of .355. He will not repeat that. Bill James, Chone, and Marcel all have him in the low .800s for OPS or in the high .700s. That is a .100 drop or more from last season. DeRosa put up an OPS in the mid .800s last season. All of the projections for Miles have him in the .600s or very low .700s. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09. 2008 - SS Ryan Theriot 2009 - SS Ryan Theriot - 2008 Ryan Theriot had a BABIP of nearly .350 last season. Plus, he put up an OBP of .380+ while only hitting one HR. In 2007 Ryan put up a more typical BABIP of around .300 and was at .266 and .326. It is doubtful that Theriot will repeat a BABIP of nearly .350, so the numbers from 2007 are probably more likely what we'll see him put up this coming season. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09. 2008 - 3B Aramis Ramirez 2009 - 3B Aramis Ramirez - AmRam had a career high in BB% by more than 3% points over any season he had ever had. His slugging declined last season to be the lowest its been in 5 years. That said, his BABIP was about where it should be, but was still better than his career mark. All of the projections expect him to not have quite the walk rate he had last season (although still better than anything he had posted before this past season), while maintaining his current SLG. So we may see a 10 point drop in OPS or so from last season. Not enough to call it a downgrade. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs for '09. 2008 - LF Alfonso Soriano 2009 - LF Alfonso Soriano - Soriano also walked a bit more in '08 than he normally had in his career. His BABIP was pretty much expected, slightly over .300. So I'd expect to see Alfonso Soriano put up similar numbers next year. Perhaps with an OBP in the .330s rather than the .340s. I think it is interesting too that all the projections have him projected to be worse than last year, they must be factoring for age, which is possible as Soriano turned 33 a few days ago. But I will mark this as a push for the Cubs for '09. 2008 - CF Johnson/Edmonds 2009 - Fukudome/Johnson - Johnson's BABIP was .367 last year. He's not going to repeat that. Edmonds put up an OPS over .900. Fukudome and Johnson are both likely to put up OPS in the low to mid .700s. Plus I would claim that going from Edmonds to Fukudome in CF is a huge drop off defensively. I will mark this as a significant downgrade for the Cubs for '09. 2008 - RF Fukudome/DeRosa 2009 - Bradley/Fukudome - Bradley put up a BABIP of .396 last season. He will likely be a slight improvement over the numbers DeRosa put up in RF last season. Fukudome is likely a wash. So, I will mark this as a slight upgrade for the Cubs for ´09. 2008 - SP Zambrano 2009 - SP Zambrano - Zambrano has had his K rates steadily decline for two seasons now. This last season was his lowest K rate since 2001 (where he only pitched in 7 innings). The big question mark here is will that continue its decline? Also his FIP has been over 4 for the past three seasons, one has to wonder with the defensive downgrade in the OF whether his numbers will begin to head in that direction. I think the best the Cubs can hope for with Zambrano is a push from last season. 2008 - SP Dempster 2009 - SP Dempster - Dempster posted a sub 3 ERA last season. He was helped by having a strand rate of over 76%. The projections of Dempster are all over the board, but all agree that the best the Cubs should expect from him is a 3.60 ERA, with an ERA in the low 4s even being possible. This doesn´t even consider the fact that he went 200 innings last season after converting from the pen. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09. 2008 - SP Lilly 2009 - SP Lilly - Lilly also stranded 76% of runners last season and had a FIP in the mid 4s. Most projections have him repeating last season. I don´t see how he could do signifcantly better, I mark this as a push for the Cubs for ´09. 2008 - SP Harden, Marshall, and Others 2009 - Harden & Others - Harden has a tear in his shoulder. I don´t think the Cubs can expect him to pitch more than he did last season. His career seems to indicate that is about all they can expect from him this year. That spells two problems for the Cubs 1) Harden is good, but he is not going to post a sub 2 ERA again. Most projections have him with an ERA around 3. I think that is fair. As for the "others". With Marshall now in the ´09 starting rotation, the depth is not there. This will be a rather large downgrade for the Cubs. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for ´09. 2008 - SP Marquis 2009 - SP Marshall - Marshall only pitched 96 innings last season, while only barely cracking 130 the previous year. He is a solid pitcher. But frankly, if he pitches the whole season, I don´t expect his numbers to be much better than Marquis 4.53. Last year Marshall benefited from a left on percentage of nearly 80%. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs for ´09. Added on top of all of this, I should mention that the SP depth of the Cubs is a significant downgrade in comparison to last season. If they ever have more than one pitcher go down at once (which could happen with Harden being likely to spend lots of time on the DL, Zambrano having DL problems recently, and Marshall trying to pitch a full season when he hasn´t pitched over 150 in one season in his career.) I´ll be quick about the bullpen. Since this has gone on more than enough. Having Marmol in the closer spot rather than the setup spot is a downgrade for Chicago. Gragg (sp?) will not put up Wood type numbers, and will be a downgrade for Chicago. Vizcaino should be better than Howry was last year, so that is an upgrade. The rest of the bullpen is a push in my mind. In total I count - 7 downgrades from last season. 2 upgrades from last season. and 8 pushes from last season. I do not see this team as being as good as it was last year, it could be significantly worse, especially at middle infield and outfield. Last year they received some amazing contributions in those areas that they are unlikely to receive in '09. I´m not saying the Cubs will be horrible, but I think they have regressed some where if the Brewers or another team in the Central has a couple of guys perform better than last season, the Cubs could be caught.

It's Juan Cruz's own fault if he doesn't get signed. He knew how it worked when he turned down arbitration. It's the risk that a player runs when they turn down Arby and look for more dollars. I think Cruz will eventually get signed, but likely for far less than he would have gotten in Arby. He took a gamble and lost. Same goes with Sheets.

If you don't think its worth talking about it, skip the comments. It's not hard. As trwi7 pointed out they have him working out at second base, so to act as if it is so far fetched that he could at least play some at another position isn't as far fetched as you try to make it (much less grounds to get on a high horse and judge other's posts and not add anything to the discussion). And last I checked, speculating is part of what makes this site interesting. I wasn't even suggesting that I wanted Escobar playing third base, I was just asking what the difference was between starting Hardy there versus starting Escobar there, since we have a lot of people pushing to have an Escobar/Hardy left side of the infield (and by all accounts Hardy is not moving off of SS). It was more of a question of the relative defense values of an above average defender at 3b versus the same player at SS, because the offense would be exactly the same. As others pointed out, a 3B is likely to have about 100-200 less balls over the course of a season, so playing Escobar there would be less than ideal. But I'd still be interested in comparing what the value is of a top defensive 3B versus an infielder like Gamel who will hit better, but also likely be a below average fielder. I'd be interested in seeing you comment on that Sheetskout, or you can just continue with the condescending posts, your choice.

I think brewerguy71 is discounting that Hardy gets tremendous jumps on balls. He isn't the speediest guy, but off the bat he is heading in the right direction as quick as anyone I've seen. I think his UZR accounts for that as well. His jumps allow him to get to a number of balls that others might be diving for. Anyone who says JJ Hardy has below average range simply isn't watching the games IMO. With the jumps he gets, he is very easily average, if not above average. Just because he isn't making crazy diving plays doesn't mean his range is bad. Many fielders make up for bad jumps by diving for balls. It looks flashier, but it does not make the player a better defender. Now, Escobar is probably better than Hardy on defense, and I've heard also that Escobar has a Hardy-like arm. But having them both right now gives us a bit of time to let Escobar mature offensively, so he can step in when he's ready to go.

Right, but you are ignoring my point. No matter which way it goes, the offense is the same, no matter which position they play (if someone is in favor of having the combo of JJ and Escobar, the offense is no different where they play). And also note that I was not pushing for that to happen this year, thus posting his Chone projections for this season doesn't really address what I was talking about. I guess the only legitimate point in your post that addresses the point I made in my post is that he would not have enough balls hit his way where his defense would worthwhile at 3B. I don't know the numbers, how many more balls on average does a SS field over a 3B over the course of a season? It would be interesting to find out how big of a difference that would be. Plus add his range in on top of that of an average 3B, he would probably field more balls than your average 3B. I wonder how many runs a left side infield of Escobar (3B) and Hardy (SS) would save over an average infield. How many wins would their defense be worth in that regard? I could imagine teams having a very hard time sneaking a groundball through that side of the infield, with JJ's instincts, and Escobar's range.

If we are so willing to have Hardy/Escobar playing 3B/SS. What would it matter which of the two plays the listed positions, but were switched around. The offense would be the same. Would putting Escobar at 3B be that huge of a waste of his athletecism? I think putting him at 3B would allow Hardy to play further up the middle, getting many of the balls that Weeks often fails to get. And then if Hardy does move on, if we can't get him signed to a long term contract, we slide Escobar back over to SS. Also, I am hypothesizing this not for the '09 season, but for next season at the earliest.

Going to purchase 100 Brewers/Cubs tickets and retire early BrewCrewIn2004?

Yeah, I was thinking he might be a good buy low candidate earlier this offseason, but then I looked at his stats, and he was absolutely horrible for the Mets last year. By all accounts his velocity is way down too. His injuries have really left him as a shell of his former self.

It's because some of us recognize that he put up an OPS in the mid 800s in a pitcher's park the season before last. We aren't so short sighted to only look at the past season and stop there. He was a very good hitter in Oakland, one bad year is not going to have me thinking he couldn't put up similar numbers again, especially now that is in his prime. Plus, added on top of the fact that he's been an above average outfielder, is the fact that signing him would also free up money for bringing in a pitcher. Once again, looking at the big picture, rather just merely comparing Cameron and Swisher. Added on top of that the fact that Cameron is getting older, and will not likely be able to continue the success he had last season. And since he won't get a two months rest to start the season, he may have to be sat more often for the likes of Tony Gwynn Jr in order to make it through the season healthy. Looking at all of that, it boggles my mind how someone could think this is a "turd of a trade". No one here is saying that there is no risk to it, there always will be when you bring someone in on a contract of any length beyond a year, but if you honestly look at the entire list of the positives I went through above, I don't know how you couldn't admit that this could not at least turn out reasonably for the crew, quite possibly, or even likely, in more ways than one. Swisher is a prime buy low candidate, because he did have a poor season in Chicago, but that is exactly what makes him so valuable in a trade. Is that you buy on him at his lowest point and it costs our team very little to obtain above average talent. There are always those who hate buying low because the see the player at his low point, and don't look beyond that to what he could, and likely should, be.

If the White Sox would do it, I don't see any reason why the Braves would include us. They need pitching too. That's where that deal breaks down in my mind.

Swisher's OPS at .743. http://sports.yahoo.com/m...lReyYo0UnSXAQZO2M..2FCLcF Fielder's OPS at .879 http://sports.yahoo.com/m...lReyYo0UnSXAQZO2M..2FCLcF So to be technically accurate, we were both wrong. It was .136 Fielder definitely raked out of his mind in '07. However I think you would do best to avoid at looking at individual seasons and look at bigger pictures. The big picture (career stats -which include Fielder's great '07 and Swisher's bad '08) suggest the difference would be under .100 OPS points. That's what the stats tell us. If you want to make a number up off the top of your head, you are welcome to, but I don't think that type of number holds any statistical credence if we are seeking to be objective when comparing players. Both are entering their primes, so it is unlikely that we should see a fall of from either, with an improvement being far more likely for both (once again, talking objectively here). I respect that you don't want to make the deal. You've made up stats in your mind that justify your position on it. I'll stick to looking at big picture stats, because history shows that tends to be the better, more objective way of looking at players.

Or it could be a few extra months of Cameron, improvements by Prince and Hart that make a significant difference as well.

So what exactly do you think caused his decent at the age of 27, from being a solid above average OF, to being nothing other than a benchwarming 4th OF? The fact that all you can point to is one half of one season to back that up is exactly my point. The guy had a horrible second half, of one season. Are we supposed to expect that this half season is supposed to tell us how he will perform going forward? Or could it be an outlier, where the rest of his career (aside from his bad three months) is telling us otherwise. I'll admit that even in his better half of last season wasn't his best, but let's be real here. Before last season the guy put up .864 and .836 in the monster of a stadium in Oakland. But how are we to account for a player who is in the midst of his prime going from being a solid above average OF, and average 1B, to being someone who can't hold a starting job. What proof do you have that this wasn't just a down year? Down years happen, see Fielder and Hart. This isn't a guy who like Bill Hall raked like an allstar for one season and then disappeared. He's been a very consistent above average player as he has approached his prime, minus last season. I really think you guys are selling him very short.

You do realize that Nick Swisher had a batting average of only .219 last season, which stands out because it is far below where his numbers have been throughout his career. It definitely stands out as a fluke, not something that should be expected of him going forward. You raise his average back into the .250s/.260s where it has been very consistently before this past season, and his OPS will be well above .800. He had a down season, that happens. It happened to Corey Hart and your beloved Prince last year too, doesn't mean you ignore the player's potential. And as many, many people have pointed out, Prince negates much of his value with his poor defense. Swisher on the other hand is a great defensive player at 1B, so you go from bad to really good. I think you totally discount how bad of a 1B Prince really is, and I think you are shortsighted in only looking at Swisher's last season rather than looking at his career as a whole. If you look at how he's performed over the past three years, it is more likely that the drop is half of what you stated. And Swisher's defense more than makes up for the remaining gap. And if you really want to just rely on last year's stats on what you think about these two players, Fielder only had an OPS of .879, Swishers was only .135 lower (if you want to get technical, I know you were overstating your point for dramatics, but its better to be accurate). Also, over their careers, Swisher's OPS is only .098 points lower than Fielder's. Hardly the .150 OPS points stated.