Jack Stern

PECOTA has a harsh 2024 projection for Garrett Mitchell. What is it seeing, and could it point toward Mitchell ceding playing time in a crowded outfield? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections have been out for several weeks. Among the most notable Brewers forecasts is the one for Garrett Mitchell. The former first-rounder has started his big-league career by slashing a solid .278/.343/.452 (119 wRC+), albeit in just 141 plate appearances. PECOTA’s expectations are bearish: a .207/.284/.333 and 72 DRC+ (Deserved Runs Created Plus, BP's all-encompassing offensive measurement, which is scaled to 100 and in which higher is better). It’s easy to be disdainful of that forecast. Mitchell has produced above-average offense at every stop of his professional career, so how did the model come up with such ugly numbers? The answer is that PECOTA doesn’t care about Mitchell’s box score results. Whereas stats like OPS and wRC+ are derived from plate appearance outcomes, Baseball Prospectus’s line of projections and metrics strips things back to what a hitter shows on a per-pitch basis. That’s where things get hairy for Mitchell. No one is questioning Mitchell’s athleticism. His average sprint speed of nearly 30 feet per second makes him one of the fastest runners in baseball. He’s an excellent defensive center fielder, with ample strength in his 6-foot-3 frame. Mitchell’s process at the plate has also looked promising. He’s made mostly wise swing decisions as a big leaguer, posting a lower-than-average chase rate and an average swing rate on pitches in the zone. As someone who can make hard contact, Mitchell has attacked inside pitches most aggressively in a justified effort to pull the ball. What causes concern is Mitchell’s swing path. Scouts have long worried that it leaves him vulnerable to velocity up in the strike zone and prevents him from elevating the ball on contact. Mitchell has done little to ease those doubts. Buried beneath his solid slash lines are high strikeout and ground ball rates. Mitchell punched out at a 25.5% clip in his minor-league career, while hitting 61.8% of his batted balls on the ground. His big-league showing has been even more alarming on a per-swing basis, creating more red flags for a projection system like PECOTA. Mitchell has whiffed on 33.5% of his swings against fastballs. Most of those whiffs come on elevated heaters, where Mitchell’s contact rate drops significantly. Notice the shift once he sees a fastball above the belt. It’s not hard to find productive hitters with high strikeout rates in the modern game, but not all strikeout-heavy bats are equal. Driving the ball and doing damage is a common overarching goal at the plate. For some, strikeouts are an accepted side effect of such an approach. For others, the swing-and-miss reaches an unintentionally extreme level and prevents them from doing damage. Mitchell falls into the latter camp. While his whiff rates have been high across all pitch groups, his inability to make contact with fastballs is especially troublesome for his outlook. Only one qualified hitter (MJ Melendez) whiffed on fastballs in 2023 as frequently as Mitchell has in the majors. Mitchell has looked better on the quality of contact front since reaching the majors, posting a 40.5% ground-ball rate and 28.7% line-drive rate. Statcast says he’s found the “sweet spot” of the bat (producing launch angles between 8 and 32 degrees) on 40.5% of batted balls. Still, that’s not enough to sustainably compensate for Mitchell’s lack of consistent contact. He’s been incredibly fortunate on balls in play, enjoying a .441 BABIP and .537 wOBA on contact. Even hitters with a world-class ability to “guide the ball” (think Luis Arráez) cannot maintain such a success rate on batted balls, let alone one like Mitchell, who has not demonstrated plus bat control. Based on his quantity and quality of contact, Statcast assigned Mitchell an expected .207/.279/.342 line and .276 xwOBA for his big-league work to date. Baseball Prospectus thinks he deserved a .197/.277/.326 slash and 64 DRC+. His 2024 projection is similar. Without improvements to his swing, Mitchell is at risk of ceding playing time in a Brewers outfield filled with young talent. Given that depth, Mitchell’s full set of minor-league options, and his need for more development, there isn’t much pressure to roster him. While a demotion back to Triple-A might surprise some fans, it could be a plausible possibility in the near future. Research assistance provided by TruMedia. View full article

The Milwaukee Brewers’ offseason moves left many observers scratching their heads, but the club always had a defined objective. General Manager Matt Arnold balanced several moving pieces throughout the organization and executed the vision exceptionally well. Image courtesy of © Stephanie Amador / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK After a swift dismissal in the National League Wild Card Series in October, the focus in Milwaukee immediately shifted to an offseason of change. It became apparent that manager Craig Counsell would test free agency, instead of signing an extension. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Willy Adames’s contracts were each set to expire after the 2024 season, sparking passionate debates about potential trades and extensions. The widespread thinking was that an organization in the Brewers’ position had two paths forward: go all-in for one last ride or tear it down. Either way, an end to a competitive window was approaching. That belief solidified after Counsell shockingly crossed state lines to manage the Chicago Cubs and the Brewers non-tendered Woodruff in the wake of his shoulder surgery. Owner Mark Attanasio and General Manager Matt Arnold faced difficult decisions that would have serious implications for the franchise. Arnold indeed made many tough decisions in a very active winter, but the final product of his moves did not fit the expectations of many observers. The club kicked things off by trading Mark Canha to the Detroit Tigers instead of picking up his club option. It won the Rhys Hoskins sweepstakes in late January, only for Arnold to trade Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles less than a week later. The Brewers held onto Adames, signed Jakob Junis and Gary Sánchez to one-year deals, and re-signed Woodruff last week to a two-year contract covering his rehab and return. National pundits and portions of the fan base grew increasingly confused with each twist. They perceived the Hoskins signing as a signal that the Brewers chose the all-in path. When Burnes became an Oriole days later, they questioned the prompt U-turn toward the fire sale approach. Trying to put the Brewers’ competitive approach into one of those two boxes is a futile exercise. The organization has been transparent about its process over the past couple of years. Anyone who listened to the messaging shouldn’t be surprised by anything the club has done over the last few months. Despite the poor reception when David Stearns characterized it as taking “bites of the apple,” the Brewers’ organizational philosophy has not changed. They reject the notion that there are only two effective paths toward a World Series title, nor do they think in terms of strict competitive windows tied to specific players. Instead, the Brewers believe the best path to a championship in baseball’s smallest market is to make the playoffs as many years as possible. Competing every year requires excellent player development, the right balance of moves that address short- and long-term, and excellent management of organizational resources. Arnold was especially tasked with the latter two objectives this winter, and did a phenomenal job. Power was the Brewers’ top need. Hoskins and Sánchez are perfect fits. While the former’s deal carries some risk if he struggles after returning from ACL reconstruction, neither player will handcuff the team financially on short-term deals. Decisions on pending free agents require carefully weighing long-term gain against short-term loss. The Brewers played that pro-and-con game in deciding on the futures of Burnes and Adames. Burnes was not going to take a discounted extension to remain with the Brewers, nor was offering him a market value deal wise for the team after they had already received what could be the best seasons of his career. While the Brewers will not be able to backfill the entirety of Burnes’ value in the rotation, they are well-equipped to survive without him as one of baseball’s best pitching development organizations. The long-term benefit of trading Burnes outweighed the potential short-term hit. It made the most sense to deal him, and Arnold found a satisfactory package of Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a compensatory pick. Adames’s situation is different. Milwaukee’s hitting development appears to have made strides in recent years, but the results have yet to reach the big leagues. The organization also lacks long-term shortstop options to replace Adames, particularly after Brice Turang looked overpowered by MLB fastballs as a rookie. Furthermore, Adames is at the heart of the clubhouse culture and has spoken openly about his desire to remain in Milwaukee on a new contract. In this instance, one could argue that the shockwaves resulting from an Adames trade would outweigh the value of the return. The balance would swing out of the competitive zone. It seems the Brewers agree, as Adames remains with the team. Arnold’s balancing act extends beyond the big-league roster. He has also dipped into the organization’s minor-league depth, trading away redundant prospects for players with more immediate MLB upside. Arnold traded for second baseman Oliver Dunn, first baseman Jake Bauers, and relievers Bryan Hudson and Taylor Clarke. He parted with prospects Hendry Mendez, Robert Moore, Jace Avina, Brian Sanchez, Justin Chambers, Cam Devanney, and Ryan Brady. Mendez and Moore struggled in High A in 2023. Avina has impressive power but has struck out at alarming rates in the low minors. Chambers has yet to throw a professional pitch and is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Devanney is blocked at every position around the infield and took a step back offensively in Triple A last year. These prospects were low on the organizational depth chart, but the players the Brewers got in return could all help in 2024 and beyond. Dunn and Bauers flashed incredible power last year and could join Hoskins and Sánchez in boosting the Brewers in that category. Hudson ran high strikeout and ground ball rates in Triple-A last year, and Clarke has excellent breaking stuff. The cantilevered approach the Brewers have chosen is difficult to execute, but Arnold pulled it off this winter. He opportunistically added power bats on short-term deals, struck a delicate balance between trading away and retaining pending free agents, and used expendable prospects to add upside players to the 40-man roster. The resulting roster lacks the elite starting rotation of past seasons, and many projection systems believe it will cost the Brewers a handful of wins. However, the club will be more balanced in 2024 than in the last couple of campaigns. The offense is deeper, gained some needed firepower, and the defense and bullpen remain strong. Unlike the 2023 team that featured one of baseball’s worst lineups, this year’s squad should be competent or better in every facet of the game. Entering an offseason under such uncertain circumstances and emerging with that improved outlook is impressive. Arnold and the entire front office deserve credit for it. View full article