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Jack Stern

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  1. Tasked with a greater role this year as the Brewers' top starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta has mostly shown the same form he did as a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Improved execution in pitcher-friendly counts would help him take an awaited leap forward. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Freddy Peralta’s first season as the leader of the Brewers’ rotation has been solid in many regards. The 28-year-old’s overall numbers fit that description: a 3.74 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 2.86 SIERA, and 77 DRA-. That production does not represent the full extent of Peralta’s capabilities, though, and it arguably falls short of expectations for the role he has been assigned on Milwaukee’s pitching staff. The hope was that he could carry the elite form he showcased in the second half of last year – a 2.81 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 6.4 K/BB ratio – into his first season atop the rotation. Peralta instead resides in the same territory he has occupied for the better part of two-plus years: good, but not elite. One lasting issue preventing him from making that jump is inefficiency. Peralta is averaging 5 ⅓ innings per start this year, identical to the league average for qualified starting pitchers. His 4.14 pitches per plate appearance is the fourth-highest. Keeping his pitch count low enough to consistently work deep into games will likely never be one of Peralta’s strong suits. As a high-strikeout pitcher, he will naturally find himself in more deep counts that inflate his pitch totals. Still, Peralta frequently throws more pitches than necessary, making it an area of his game he can (and must) tighten to elevate his performance. 18% of plate appearances against Peralta this year have gone to a full count. That’s the fifth-highest rate among qualified starters and discernably higher than the league average of 13.9%. Peralta has been especially inefficient in put-away counts. After getting ahead 0-2 or 1-2, he often wastes bullets by uncorking pitches nowhere close to the strike zone, essentially gifting hitters a free ball. Even if he ultimately retires the hitter, those unproductive pitches unnecessarily lengthen Peralta’s journey to that out. At worst, they put hitters back into neutral or even favorable counts, which can lead to a hit or walk after what should have been a heavily pitcher-friendly count. After this point was raised on the latest installment of the Brewer Fanatic Podcast, our own Jake McKibbin did some preliminary research on the subject. According to TruMedia, Peralta throws significantly more non-competitive pitches (pitches at least 18 inches away from the center of the strike zone in any direction) in 0-2 and 1-2 counts than the average hurler. These misses have resulted in below-average chase (32.8%) and swing (50.2%) rates on two-strike counts with fewer than three balls. Those splits imply two things: Peralta does not tempt hitters to chase with two strikes as often as most pitchers, and hitters know they can wait him out in those counts more than they can most opponents. Peralta’s last start against the Chicago White Sox was a prime example of wasted pitches derailing an outing. Tasked with eating innings on a getaway day against the worst lineup in baseball, Peralta labored through a 43-pitch first inning. To his credit, he rebounded over his final four frames, but the tough start limited him to five innings on a day when Pat Murphy was resting his high-leverage relievers and presumably hoped for more out of his best starter. Peralta made things more challenging by failing to put hitters away in two-strike counts. Pictured below are the locations of his two-strike offerings in that first inning. That’s far too many fastballs well above the zone with two strikes that do not tempt a hitter to chase. By bringing opponents back into the count, Peralta allowed consecutive singles after getting ahead 0-2 and issued a walk after reaching a 1-2 count. The ability to relentlessly attack hitters with well-executed pitches in any count is the missing link for Peralta. To fully live up to the expectations that come with his pedigree, experience, and status as the Brewers’ No. 1 starter, he will have to make strides in that area. View full article
  2. Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio and general manager Matt Arnold held court with the media during the team’s latest homestand. Among the topics discussed was the development of Jackson Chourio, the club’s former top prospect who has debuted and spent the entire season in the big leagues after signing an eight-year, $82 million contract. Chourio has struggled mightily so far, hitting .214/.257/.345 (71 wRC+) in 180 plate appearances. Defensive metrics grade his glovework as above-average, but he has also shown hesitancy and taken subpar routes on playable balls. Garrett Mitchell’s impending return from the injured list, Sal Frelick’s recent hot streak, Blake Perkins’s solid performance as a fourth outfielder, and Chourio’s inconsistent play raise questions about his short-term fit with the big-league term. His playing time against right-handed starters has dried up lately. Chourio did not start in Monday night’s series opener against the Phillies, and has now started in just two of Milwaukee’s last seven games against a right-handed starter. A demotion to Triple-A could be on the table, but Attanasio pushed back against that notion. “I don’t see where he’s going to learn anything in Triple-A at this point,” he said. Attanasio is right. While there would be a more straightforward path to daily at-bats in Nashville, Chourio won’t gain much from a developmental standpoint by facing that level of competition. Chourio has already hit six home runs, and has shown that he can punish mistakes. When pitchers leave pitches over the middle of the plate, he’s destroying them. Two of those home runs have come during the last two homestands, and demonstrate how naturally Chourio crushes any pitch in his wheelhouse. On May 15, he demolished a changeup over the plate, sending it to the Miller Lite Deck in left field with a powerful but controlled swing. chourio perez HR.mp4 Last Monday against the Cubs, he took a controlled swing at a two-strike fastball over the outer half of the plate and hit a 103.8-mph double into the gap in right-center. chourio double.mp4 On Sunday against the White Sox, he belted a hanging slider by Nick Nastrini into the left-field bleachers. chourio nastrini HR.mp4 Chourio’s struggles are primarily against well-executed pitches around the edges of the strike zone. He also continues to swing at non-competitive ones, chasing outside the zone at a 36.1% rate that ranks in the 10th percentile of all hitters. Facing pitchers in Triple-A who are more prone to making mistakes over the plate would allow Chourio to lean back on his existing strengths, instead of addressing his weaknesses. Being challenged less will not facilitate growth. Keeping him in the big leagues also guarantees Chourio immediate access to perhaps the most important resource in his development: veteran teammates who can offer guidance and encouragement. “The veteran guys are really helpful for him,” Arnold said. “Conversations with guys like Freddy [Peralta]. He’s playing dominoes with Wade Miley. He’s connecting with veteran guys, and he wants to learn from them.” The conversation with Peralta appeared to spark an improvement in Chourio’s glovework. He appeared hesitant to go after shallow fly balls, perhaps in fear of what would happen if the ball skirted past him after an unsuccessful dive attempt. Chourio was forgoing outs to ensure the ball remained in front of him. When it happened again last Tuesday with Peralta on the mound, the ace pulled Chourio aside afterward for a pep talk. He reminded the rookie that the organization and his teammates had confidence in his abilities, so he should have the confidence to play aggressively. Chourio made two diving catches in the following days. “One hundred percent,” Peralta said when asked if Chourio played with more confidence throughout the rest of the homestand. “I think everyone can tell if they’re seeing what he’s been doing … That’s what we want at the end of the day, to make him feel comfortable.” “I don’t know what he said, but it’s what you want to see, right?” Attanasio said. “It’s a constructive conversation. All I know is they had that conversation and then Jackson made a sliding catch shortly thereafter.” Barring injuries or sudden slumps, the Brewers could be facing some difficult roster decisions when Mitchell is ready to return. It’s possible that Chourio will end up in Nashville soon to ensure playing time. The best place for his development to continue, though, is still the big leagues.
  3. Jackson Chourio's big-league career has gotten off to a rocky start, but the positive moments have demonstrated that he has little to gain from a demotion to Triple-A. With a potential roster crunch looming, the Brewers must keep that in mind. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio and general manager Matt Arnold held court with the media during the team’s latest homestand. Among the topics discussed was the development of Jackson Chourio, the club’s former top prospect who has debuted and spent the entire season in the big leagues after signing an eight-year, $82 million contract. Chourio has struggled mightily so far, hitting .214/.257/.345 (71 wRC+) in 180 plate appearances. Defensive metrics grade his glovework as above-average, but he has also shown hesitancy and taken subpar routes on playable balls. Garrett Mitchell’s impending return from the injured list, Sal Frelick’s recent hot streak, Blake Perkins’s solid performance as a fourth outfielder, and Chourio’s inconsistent play raise questions about his short-term fit with the big-league term. His playing time against right-handed starters has dried up lately. Chourio did not start in Monday night’s series opener against the Phillies, and has now started in just two of Milwaukee’s last seven games against a right-handed starter. A demotion to Triple-A could be on the table, but Attanasio pushed back against that notion. “I don’t see where he’s going to learn anything in Triple-A at this point,” he said. Attanasio is right. While there would be a more straightforward path to daily at-bats in Nashville, Chourio won’t gain much from a developmental standpoint by facing that level of competition. Chourio has already hit six home runs, and has shown that he can punish mistakes. When pitchers leave pitches over the middle of the plate, he’s destroying them. Two of those home runs have come during the last two homestands, and demonstrate how naturally Chourio crushes any pitch in his wheelhouse. On May 15, he demolished a changeup over the plate, sending it to the Miller Lite Deck in left field with a powerful but controlled swing. chourio perez HR.mp4 Last Monday against the Cubs, he took a controlled swing at a two-strike fastball over the outer half of the plate and hit a 103.8-mph double into the gap in right-center. chourio double.mp4 On Sunday against the White Sox, he belted a hanging slider by Nick Nastrini into the left-field bleachers. chourio nastrini HR.mp4 Chourio’s struggles are primarily against well-executed pitches around the edges of the strike zone. He also continues to swing at non-competitive ones, chasing outside the zone at a 36.1% rate that ranks in the 10th percentile of all hitters. Facing pitchers in Triple-A who are more prone to making mistakes over the plate would allow Chourio to lean back on his existing strengths, instead of addressing his weaknesses. Being challenged less will not facilitate growth. Keeping him in the big leagues also guarantees Chourio immediate access to perhaps the most important resource in his development: veteran teammates who can offer guidance and encouragement. “The veteran guys are really helpful for him,” Arnold said. “Conversations with guys like Freddy [Peralta]. He’s playing dominoes with Wade Miley. He’s connecting with veteran guys, and he wants to learn from them.” The conversation with Peralta appeared to spark an improvement in Chourio’s glovework. He appeared hesitant to go after shallow fly balls, perhaps in fear of what would happen if the ball skirted past him after an unsuccessful dive attempt. Chourio was forgoing outs to ensure the ball remained in front of him. When it happened again last Tuesday with Peralta on the mound, the ace pulled Chourio aside afterward for a pep talk. He reminded the rookie that the organization and his teammates had confidence in his abilities, so he should have the confidence to play aggressively. Chourio made two diving catches in the following days. “One hundred percent,” Peralta said when asked if Chourio played with more confidence throughout the rest of the homestand. “I think everyone can tell if they’re seeing what he’s been doing … That’s what we want at the end of the day, to make him feel comfortable.” “I don’t know what he said, but it’s what you want to see, right?” Attanasio said. “It’s a constructive conversation. All I know is they had that conversation and then Jackson made a sliding catch shortly thereafter.” Barring injuries or sudden slumps, the Brewers could be facing some difficult roster decisions when Mitchell is ready to return. It’s possible that Chourio will end up in Nashville soon to ensure playing time. The best place for his development to continue, though, is still the big leagues. View full article
  4. Minor-league journeyman Kevin Herget was thrust into high-leverage duty in the Brewers' series finale against the White Sox, and he excelled. It was mainly due to a standout changeup that could give him some staying power in the bullpen. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports With the Brewers having already secured a series win over the White Sox and a three-game series with the Phillies starting the following night, Pat Murphy stayed away from his high-leverage relievers in Sunday’s getaway game. That left Kevin Herget and Enoli Paredes to protect a close lead over the final four innings. The duo, who have spent most of the season pitching at Triple-A Nashville, answered the call with scoreless appearances. Herget earned his first big-league hold, and Paredes notched his first save. The former’s outing was the more eye-opening, though. Herget retired six hitters in order in the sixth and seventh innings, five via strikeout. He returned for the eighth and threw eight straight balls for a pair of walks, but Paredes escaped the jam--with help from Christian Yelich, who gunned down a tagging Tommy Pham at the plate for an inning-ending double play. He ran out of gas at the end, but Herget’s outing was still impressive, even if it came against the worst lineup in baseball. The 33-year-old dominated, thanks in large part to his changeup. Eleven of Herget’s 31 pitches were changeups, making it his most-used pitch of the afternoon. That’s nothing new for the veteran. Of the pitches he’s thrown in his career that have been captured by pitch-tracking technology, 35.4% have been changeups. “The changeup’s always been my pitch,” he said after the outing. “I’ve always had a really good changeup.” It was great on Sunday. The changeup accounted for all three whiffs Herget recorded. The White Sox failed to put it in play even once, out of six swings. It’s a unique changeup, too. The pitch has averaged 17.2 inches of arm-side run, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 changeups this season. Herget showcased even more movement on Sunday, maxing out at 22 inches of lateral movement on this changeup to strike out Oscar Colás. Many pitchers throw straight changeups. In addition to reducing velocity, they strive to dampen spin and induced vertical break on the pitch, to create late drop that separates it from their fastball. Herget throws a less prevalent kind of changeup. It averages 12.5 inches of induced vertical break, far above the league average of 5.3 inches. That’s less observed drop than the typical offspeed pitch. “I would classify it as a carry, horizontal changeup for the most part,” he said. “My mindset has always been that if I get on the side of the ball and I rip through it, I don’t really care how much it spins. I’m trying to get a change of speed and some horizontal [movement] to it to get that separation.” When throwing the changeup, Herget orients the ball in his hand like a four-seam fastball. Instead of staying behind the ball to generate backspin, his goal is to pronate and make it move laterally by producing as much sidespin as possible. “I want to cut it in half and spin it as much as I can, so I’m moving my hand as fast as I can,” he explained. “I’m just trying to get the force away from the back side of the ball and through the side of the ball.” Herget’s changeup spins at an average of 2,128 rpm, which ranks in the 88th percentile of changeups. It usually spins (from his perspective) toward 2 o’clock on a figurative clock, meaning it’s spinning sideways to his arm side. The pitch has a 99% active spin rate, meaning that almost all of the sidespin Herget generates contributes to its plus horizontal movement. That spin is even more impressive with added context. Spin and velocity are often correlated. The harder a pitcher throws a ball, the faster it will spin. Conversely, a slower pitch typically spins at a lower rate. As the graph below illustrates, Herget has one of baseball’s higher changeup spin rates, despite the pitch’s low-80s velocity residing near the bottom of the league. This is what he’s talking about when he speaks of ripping the ball. Herget also gets around the ball, with an arm slot that typically is not conducive to pronating. It’s typically easier to sidespin a ball with a lower release slot, but he has an over-the-top delivery. Herget’s release height is roughly five inches higher than the MLB average, despite his below-average 5-foot-10-inch stature. Once again, Herget stands out. Few pitchers generate the sidespin and lateral movement he does on a changeup from a higher slot. That downward delivery also helps create a perception that his changeup is dropping more than it is as it approaches the plate. If you’ve gotten lost in the technical jargon, the crux of Herget’s changeup is that it behaves much differently than offspeed pitches most hitters are used to seeing. In some ways, it’s a (far less extreme) version of Devin Williams’s changeup. Williams sidespins the ball from a lower release slot and generates vastly more spin and break, but the approach for making the ball move is similar. Another commonality with Williams’s changeup is that it’s not a matchup-based asset. Whereas most pitches use their changeups primarily against opposite-handed batters, Herget’s side-spinner remains integral to his pitch mix against right-handers. “I learned that, when I was in Double-A a bunch of years ago, using it to both hitters was successful,” he said, adding that the horizontal movement has sometimes made it even more effective against righties than lefties. To speak very generally, that's right: horizontal movement drives pitch efficacy to same-handed batters, more than to opposite-handed ones. Vertical movement tends to be the difference-maker for lefty batters, from a righty like Herget. Herget’s changeup is a legitimately robust pitch, and leaning on it to the extreme (as Williams does) is probably his best path to success. Whether it’s enough to yield consistent results remains to be seen, but he is already the latest example of a minor Brewers acquisition making his presence felt in a positive way on at least one occasion. View full article
  5. With the Brewers having already secured a series win over the White Sox and a three-game series with the Phillies starting the following night, Pat Murphy stayed away from his high-leverage relievers in Sunday’s getaway game. That left Kevin Herget and Enoli Paredes to protect a close lead over the final four innings. The duo, who have spent most of the season pitching at Triple-A Nashville, answered the call with scoreless appearances. Herget earned his first big-league hold, and Paredes notched his first save. The former’s outing was the more eye-opening, though. Herget retired six hitters in order in the sixth and seventh innings, five via strikeout. He returned for the eighth and threw eight straight balls for a pair of walks, but Paredes escaped the jam--with help from Christian Yelich, who gunned down a tagging Tommy Pham at the plate for an inning-ending double play. He ran out of gas at the end, but Herget’s outing was still impressive, even if it came against the worst lineup in baseball. The 33-year-old dominated, thanks in large part to his changeup. Eleven of Herget’s 31 pitches were changeups, making it his most-used pitch of the afternoon. That’s nothing new for the veteran. Of the pitches he’s thrown in his career that have been captured by pitch-tracking technology, 35.4% have been changeups. “The changeup’s always been my pitch,” he said after the outing. “I’ve always had a really good changeup.” It was great on Sunday. The changeup accounted for all three whiffs Herget recorded. The White Sox failed to put it in play even once, out of six swings. It’s a unique changeup, too. The pitch has averaged 17.2 inches of arm-side run, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 changeups this season. Herget showcased even more movement on Sunday, maxing out at 22 inches of lateral movement on this changeup to strike out Oscar Colás. Many pitchers throw straight changeups. In addition to reducing velocity, they strive to dampen spin and induced vertical break on the pitch, to create late drop that separates it from their fastball. Herget throws a less prevalent kind of changeup. It averages 12.5 inches of induced vertical break, far above the league average of 5.3 inches. That’s less observed drop than the typical offspeed pitch. “I would classify it as a carry, horizontal changeup for the most part,” he said. “My mindset has always been that if I get on the side of the ball and I rip through it, I don’t really care how much it spins. I’m trying to get a change of speed and some horizontal [movement] to it to get that separation.” When throwing the changeup, Herget orients the ball in his hand like a four-seam fastball. Instead of staying behind the ball to generate backspin, his goal is to pronate and make it move laterally by producing as much sidespin as possible. “I want to cut it in half and spin it as much as I can, so I’m moving my hand as fast as I can,” he explained. “I’m just trying to get the force away from the back side of the ball and through the side of the ball.” Herget’s changeup spins at an average of 2,128 rpm, which ranks in the 88th percentile of changeups. It usually spins (from his perspective) toward 2 o’clock on a figurative clock, meaning it’s spinning sideways to his arm side. The pitch has a 99% active spin rate, meaning that almost all of the sidespin Herget generates contributes to its plus horizontal movement. That spin is even more impressive with added context. Spin and velocity are often correlated. The harder a pitcher throws a ball, the faster it will spin. Conversely, a slower pitch typically spins at a lower rate. As the graph below illustrates, Herget has one of baseball’s higher changeup spin rates, despite the pitch’s low-80s velocity residing near the bottom of the league. This is what he’s talking about when he speaks of ripping the ball. Herget also gets around the ball, with an arm slot that typically is not conducive to pronating. It’s typically easier to sidespin a ball with a lower release slot, but he has an over-the-top delivery. Herget’s release height is roughly five inches higher than the MLB average, despite his below-average 5-foot-10-inch stature. Once again, Herget stands out. Few pitchers generate the sidespin and lateral movement he does on a changeup from a higher slot. That downward delivery also helps create a perception that his changeup is dropping more than it is as it approaches the plate. If you’ve gotten lost in the technical jargon, the crux of Herget’s changeup is that it behaves much differently than offspeed pitches most hitters are used to seeing. In some ways, it’s a (far less extreme) version of Devin Williams’s changeup. Williams sidespins the ball from a lower release slot and generates vastly more spin and break, but the approach for making the ball move is similar. Another commonality with Williams’s changeup is that it’s not a matchup-based asset. Whereas most pitches use their changeups primarily against opposite-handed batters, Herget’s side-spinner remains integral to his pitch mix against right-handers. “I learned that, when I was in Double-A a bunch of years ago, using it to both hitters was successful,” he said, adding that the horizontal movement has sometimes made it even more effective against righties than lefties. To speak very generally, that's right: horizontal movement drives pitch efficacy to same-handed batters, more than to opposite-handed ones. Vertical movement tends to be the difference-maker for lefty batters, from a righty like Herget. Herget’s changeup is a legitimately robust pitch, and leaning on it to the extreme (as Williams does) is probably his best path to success. Whether it’s enough to yield consistent results remains to be seen, but he is already the latest example of a minor Brewers acquisition making his presence felt in a positive way on at least one occasion.
  6. Friday night was a Jekyll-and-Hyde act for the Brewers offense. After going a combined 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position through the first six innings, the bats exploded for eight runs over the final two innings to notch a comeback blowout win over the Chicago White Sox. The final tally of 12 runs that evening paints a more formidable picture than the reality of the performance behind it. Milwaukee recorded 23 hits, the most by any team in a game this year, and 18 were singles. Keeping the line moving to such an extreme extent is not a sustainable skill, and it takes a perfect storm to make it happen in a sample of any size. The White Sox are the worst team in baseball, and the Brewers benefitted from hitting against an awful bullpen and defense. Sprinkle in some good luck, and you get 12 runs on 23 hits. Look at several of those hits. Christian Yelich doubled down the line on a check swing. Jake Bauers’ two hits were an infield single gloved in the hole at shortstop and a looping 79-mph liner that somehow got past Gavin Sheets at first base and rolled down the line for a double. Sal Frelick’s seventh-inning double was a looping liner trapped on a bounce by Tommy Pham, a below-average corner outfielder whom the White Sox have crammed into center field on a regular basis for the first time since 2018. 15 of the 23 hits were ground balls. While the production from that game may have been the culmination of several factors working in the Brewers’ favor, their lineup looks increasingly like a legitimate strength. The calendar flipped to June a few hours after the outburst, a time many baseball analysts use as a benchmark for taking many metrics more seriously. The Brewers have been baseball’s third-best offense by wRC+ (116) and are second to only the Philadelphia Phillies in runs scored (298). “It’s still really early,” Yelich cautioned in response to those numbers. It is, but the production is becoming harder to ignore or write off as an early-season fluke. A third of the season is not an insignificant sample. The club’s .314 xwOBA is above average and ranks in the top third of baseball. The nature of the scoring inspires confidence, too. The signs of an improved offensive team surfaced in the season’s inaugural weeks. The flukier individual performances that were inflating the team’s numbers at that stage, such as those of Blake Perkins, Oliver Dunn, and Jackson Chourio, have since subsided, yet the offense has kept chugging along. Friday evening notwithstanding, its results on ground balls have settled into more realistic territory. The diverse makeup of the lineup has been the key. Brewer Fanatic’s own Tim Muma recently explored how the Brewers excel on various fronts and can score in several ways. They have speedy contact hitters who frequently reach base by drawing walks or legging out infield hits. Upon reaching, they’ll take extra bases by stealing, stretching singles into doubles, and scoring on plays that would merely advance most runners to third base. They can slug thanks to the additions of Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez and a resurgent Yelich. The Brewers enter Sunday leading baseball in on-base percentage. They’re also eighth in home runs (66) and hard hit rate (40.4%) and third in stolen bases (77). That well-rounded makeup is a driving force behind the Brewers' scoring success. "We have a lot of guys that can run this year," Willy Adames said. "They got more comfortable stealing bases, getting in scoring position, and I think that's been the difference this year. Turang, Frelick, all the guys are stealing a lot of bases, and that puts us in a better spot to get RBIs and bring guys home." “We can be dynamic at times," Yelich said. "Traffic, manufacturing runs, taking extra bases, stealing bases. We’ve got some guys that can hit for some power, too. There’s going to be tough stretches, though. It’s just how baseball works. The thing about that is when you score in multiple ways, you can shorten those tough stretches.” The tough stretches have been abbreviated so far. Whenever the Brewers appeared to be entering a lull, they bounced back with an outburst. After scoring a total of nine runs in four games in mid-April, they erupted with a 12-run outburst against the St. Louis Cardinals. They scored eight runs over their next four contests but then tallied seven in consecutive games. They scored fewer than four runs in consecutive games just once in May. After two of their three shutout losses this year, the Brewers responded with seven or more runs the next game. The Brewers rarely seem to stop applying pressure. They bounce back quickly and regularly add to leads throughout games, providing breathing room for an ailing pitching staff. Pat Murphy characterizes it as “relentless,” a trait he demands and has come to expect from his team. He has used the term frequently throughout the last four days, during which his club scored a combined 16 runs against the division-rival Chicago Cubs and feasted on the worst run-prevention unit in baseball. “We stuck with it,” he said of the late turnaround on Friday. “We kept going. We kept putting ourselves in those positions. That’s relentless.” "It doesn't always appear the same way when you face great stuff," he said the following night when the Brewers capitalized on mistakes by the White Sox for another comeback win. In that showing, they did their late scoring on a pair of ground-ball singles by Adames, the latter of which squirted past shortstop Zach Remillard for a walk-off. The relentless approach was there, though. It’s that trait that gives this offense staying power. The Brewers will do everything they can to beat opponents at the plate in various ways. More often than not, they will.
  7. Another run of games featuring relentless offense has solidified that the Brewers' balanced and hungry lineup has what it takes to continue producing. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Friday night was a Jekyll-and-Hyde act for the Brewers offense. After going a combined 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position through the first six innings, the bats exploded for eight runs over the final two innings to notch a comeback blowout win over the Chicago White Sox. The final tally of 12 runs that evening paints a more formidable picture than the reality of the performance behind it. Milwaukee recorded 23 hits, the most by any team in a game this year, and 18 were singles. Keeping the line moving to such an extreme extent is not a sustainable skill, and it takes a perfect storm to make it happen in a sample of any size. The White Sox are the worst team in baseball, and the Brewers benefitted from hitting against an awful bullpen and defense. Sprinkle in some good luck, and you get 12 runs on 23 hits. Look at several of those hits. Christian Yelich doubled down the line on a check swing. Jake Bauers’ two hits were an infield single gloved in the hole at shortstop and a looping 79-mph liner that somehow got past Gavin Sheets at first base and rolled down the line for a double. Sal Frelick’s seventh-inning double was a looping liner trapped on a bounce by Tommy Pham, a below-average corner outfielder whom the White Sox have crammed into center field on a regular basis for the first time since 2018. 15 of the 23 hits were ground balls. While the production from that game may have been the culmination of several factors working in the Brewers’ favor, their lineup looks increasingly like a legitimate strength. The calendar flipped to June a few hours after the outburst, a time many baseball analysts use as a benchmark for taking many metrics more seriously. The Brewers have been baseball’s third-best offense by wRC+ (116) and are second to only the Philadelphia Phillies in runs scored (298). “It’s still really early,” Yelich cautioned in response to those numbers. It is, but the production is becoming harder to ignore or write off as an early-season fluke. A third of the season is not an insignificant sample. The club’s .314 xwOBA is above average and ranks in the top third of baseball. The nature of the scoring inspires confidence, too. The signs of an improved offensive team surfaced in the season’s inaugural weeks. The flukier individual performances that were inflating the team’s numbers at that stage, such as those of Blake Perkins, Oliver Dunn, and Jackson Chourio, have since subsided, yet the offense has kept chugging along. Friday evening notwithstanding, its results on ground balls have settled into more realistic territory. The diverse makeup of the lineup has been the key. Brewer Fanatic’s own Tim Muma recently explored how the Brewers excel on various fronts and can score in several ways. They have speedy contact hitters who frequently reach base by drawing walks or legging out infield hits. Upon reaching, they’ll take extra bases by stealing, stretching singles into doubles, and scoring on plays that would merely advance most runners to third base. They can slug thanks to the additions of Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez and a resurgent Yelich. The Brewers enter Sunday leading baseball in on-base percentage. They’re also eighth in home runs (66) and hard hit rate (40.4%) and third in stolen bases (77). That well-rounded makeup is a driving force behind the Brewers' scoring success. "We have a lot of guys that can run this year," Willy Adames said. "They got more comfortable stealing bases, getting in scoring position, and I think that's been the difference this year. Turang, Frelick, all the guys are stealing a lot of bases, and that puts us in a better spot to get RBIs and bring guys home." “We can be dynamic at times," Yelich said. "Traffic, manufacturing runs, taking extra bases, stealing bases. We’ve got some guys that can hit for some power, too. There’s going to be tough stretches, though. It’s just how baseball works. The thing about that is when you score in multiple ways, you can shorten those tough stretches.” The tough stretches have been abbreviated so far. Whenever the Brewers appeared to be entering a lull, they bounced back with an outburst. After scoring a total of nine runs in four games in mid-April, they erupted with a 12-run outburst against the St. Louis Cardinals. They scored eight runs over their next four contests but then tallied seven in consecutive games. They scored fewer than four runs in consecutive games just once in May. After two of their three shutout losses this year, the Brewers responded with seven or more runs the next game. The Brewers rarely seem to stop applying pressure. They bounce back quickly and regularly add to leads throughout games, providing breathing room for an ailing pitching staff. Pat Murphy characterizes it as “relentless,” a trait he demands and has come to expect from his team. He has used the term frequently throughout the last four days, during which his club scored a combined 16 runs against the division-rival Chicago Cubs and feasted on the worst run-prevention unit in baseball. “We stuck with it,” he said of the late turnaround on Friday. “We kept going. We kept putting ourselves in those positions. That’s relentless.” "It doesn't always appear the same way when you face great stuff," he said the following night when the Brewers capitalized on mistakes by the White Sox for another comeback win. In that showing, they did their late scoring on a pair of ground-ball singles by Adames, the latter of which squirted past shortstop Zach Remillard for a walk-off. The relentless approach was there, though. It’s that trait that gives this offense staying power. The Brewers will do everything they can to beat opponents at the plate in various ways. More often than not, they will. View full article
  8. When Tobias Myers began surfacing on the radars of prospect enthusiasts, and when he eventually made his major-league debut last month, his fastball captured the most attention. Myers has a well-rounded five-pitch mix, but the 19.7 inches of induced vertical break he has averaged with his four-seam fastball captivates pitching nerds. Due to gravity, every pitch drops during its trajectory from a pitcher’s hand to the catcher’s mitt. Induced vertical break measures the added or subtracted drop imparted on the ball due to how the pitcher spins it. A negative number signifies added drop, and a positive number indicates that the ball is fighting against the force of gravity and dropping less as it approaches the plate. In Myers’s case, the backspin he imparts on his four-seamer causes it to drop substantially less than most fastballs, giving it truer carry through the zone. This creates the effect that hitters often refer to as “late life” or a “ride” on a pitch. The effect is somewhat mitigated by Myers’s extreme over-the-top delivery, which creates a steep downward release angle. Still, one would assume at first glance that his four-seamer is the centerpiece of his arsenal and will be the driving force behind most of the success he has. In reality, it might not even be his most important fastball. In his first six appearances, Myers has only thrown his four-seamer 36.7% of the time. That’s still the highest usage rate of any pitch in his arsenal, but not far behind that is his cutter. Myers has used it 27.6% of the time, and he has thrown more cutters than four-seamers in two appearances. It’s been his most-used pitch against left-handed batters. Myers began experimenting with a cutter in 2019. He was pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays’ High-A affiliate, and wanted to expand his arsenal, which consisted then of only the four-seamer, a curveball, and a changeup. Myers would tweak the cutter’s shape based on matchups, but it typically resembled a breaking ball more than a hard pitch with late cut. “It was around 83 miles per hour,” he said. “Kind of like a bullet slider.” Myers continued throwing more cutters when minor-league play resumed in 2021 after the COVID-19 pandemic, but didn’t arrive at its current shape until he began working with the Brewers. After he joined the organization on a minor-league deal in December 2022, members of Milwaukee's pitching development crew helped him develop a slider to utilize against right-handed batters. That eliminated the need for a hybrid cutter/slider, so he started thinking of the cutter as a true cutting fastball. Its velocity jumped to its current 87-92 mph range. “I’m trying to backspin it as hard as I can and just let it do what it does,” he said. One of the things it does is keep hitters off his four-seamer. The cutter spins on a very similar axis to the four-seamer, making it difficult for hitters to distinguish the two out of Myers’s hand as he releases the ball. The two pitches take distinctly different paths as they approach the plate. The cutter has nearly seven fewer inches of vertical break. Whereas the fastball averages 4.3 inches of arm-side movement, the cutter moves 4.1 inches to the glove side. As the cutter leaves Myers’s hand, hitters see a pitch that looks like it could be a riding four-seamer. Instead, they get a pitch with more drop and lateral movement in the opposite direction. “If I’m throwing it well, it looks a lot like a fastball and then kind of has that late cut,” Myers said. “Just trying to get them off the heater any way I can.” Myers’s cutter is arguably just as vital to success as his four-seamer, so it’s not a surprise that poor results with it early have led to an inconsistent start to his big-league career. Hitters are slugging .778 against the cutter, which has leaked over the heart of the plate far too often. “Those are the ones that are getting hit right now,” Myers acknowledged. When he places it in his target location, there is evidence of a productive pitch. Half of the batted balls against the cutter have been ground balls. That’s an essential equalizer for Myers. The shape of his four-seamer carries the upside of inducing whiffs and pop-ups by getting hitters to swing underneath it at the top of the zone. When he misses low with the fastball or hitters start hunting it, those swings turn into loud contact in the air, resulting in the home run troubles Myers has battled throughout his career. The cutter is his key to mitigating that weakness enough to establish himself as a big-league pitcher. “If we’re going to face a team that’s hunting heater and trying to get on top of the fastball and trying to attack it, especially first time through, second time through, we’re gonna roll some cutters out there.” Some pitch modeling metrics, including Baseball Prospectus’ PitchPro and StuffPro, hold Myers's cutter in higher regard than his four-seamer. It could be his ticket to success as he looks to provide valuable innings for an injury-ravaged Brewers pitching staff.
  9. Tobias Myers has turned heads with the elite vertical ride on his four-seam fastball, but the best and most crucial fastball in his arsenal may be the cutter he has refined since joining the Brewers organization. Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports When Tobias Myers began surfacing on the radars of prospect enthusiasts, and when he eventually made his major-league debut last month, his fastball captured the most attention. Myers has a well-rounded five-pitch mix, but the 19.7 inches of induced vertical break he has averaged with his four-seam fastball captivates pitching nerds. Due to gravity, every pitch drops during its trajectory from a pitcher’s hand to the catcher’s mitt. Induced vertical break measures the added or subtracted drop imparted on the ball due to how the pitcher spins it. A negative number signifies added drop, and a positive number indicates that the ball is fighting against the force of gravity and dropping less as it approaches the plate. In Myers’s case, the backspin he imparts on his four-seamer causes it to drop substantially less than most fastballs, giving it truer carry through the zone. This creates the effect that hitters often refer to as “late life” or a “ride” on a pitch. The effect is somewhat mitigated by Myers’s extreme over-the-top delivery, which creates a steep downward release angle. Still, one would assume at first glance that his four-seamer is the centerpiece of his arsenal and will be the driving force behind most of the success he has. In reality, it might not even be his most important fastball. In his first six appearances, Myers has only thrown his four-seamer 36.7% of the time. That’s still the highest usage rate of any pitch in his arsenal, but not far behind that is his cutter. Myers has used it 27.6% of the time, and he has thrown more cutters than four-seamers in two appearances. It’s been his most-used pitch against left-handed batters. Myers began experimenting with a cutter in 2019. He was pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays’ High-A affiliate, and wanted to expand his arsenal, which consisted then of only the four-seamer, a curveball, and a changeup. Myers would tweak the cutter’s shape based on matchups, but it typically resembled a breaking ball more than a hard pitch with late cut. “It was around 83 miles per hour,” he said. “Kind of like a bullet slider.” Myers continued throwing more cutters when minor-league play resumed in 2021 after the COVID-19 pandemic, but didn’t arrive at its current shape until he began working with the Brewers. After he joined the organization on a minor-league deal in December 2022, members of Milwaukee's pitching development crew helped him develop a slider to utilize against right-handed batters. That eliminated the need for a hybrid cutter/slider, so he started thinking of the cutter as a true cutting fastball. Its velocity jumped to its current 87-92 mph range. “I’m trying to backspin it as hard as I can and just let it do what it does,” he said. One of the things it does is keep hitters off his four-seamer. The cutter spins on a very similar axis to the four-seamer, making it difficult for hitters to distinguish the two out of Myers’s hand as he releases the ball. The two pitches take distinctly different paths as they approach the plate. The cutter has nearly seven fewer inches of vertical break. Whereas the fastball averages 4.3 inches of arm-side movement, the cutter moves 4.1 inches to the glove side. As the cutter leaves Myers’s hand, hitters see a pitch that looks like it could be a riding four-seamer. Instead, they get a pitch with more drop and lateral movement in the opposite direction. “If I’m throwing it well, it looks a lot like a fastball and then kind of has that late cut,” Myers said. “Just trying to get them off the heater any way I can.” Myers’s cutter is arguably just as vital to success as his four-seamer, so it’s not a surprise that poor results with it early have led to an inconsistent start to his big-league career. Hitters are slugging .778 against the cutter, which has leaked over the heart of the plate far too often. “Those are the ones that are getting hit right now,” Myers acknowledged. When he places it in his target location, there is evidence of a productive pitch. Half of the batted balls against the cutter have been ground balls. That’s an essential equalizer for Myers. The shape of his four-seamer carries the upside of inducing whiffs and pop-ups by getting hitters to swing underneath it at the top of the zone. When he misses low with the fastball or hitters start hunting it, those swings turn into loud contact in the air, resulting in the home run troubles Myers has battled throughout his career. The cutter is his key to mitigating that weakness enough to establish himself as a big-league pitcher. “If we’re going to face a team that’s hunting heater and trying to get on top of the fastball and trying to attack it, especially first time through, second time through, we’re gonna roll some cutters out there.” Some pitch modeling metrics, including Baseball Prospectus’ PitchPro and StuffPro, hold Myers's cutter in higher regard than his four-seamer. It could be his ticket to success as he looks to provide valuable innings for an injury-ravaged Brewers pitching staff. View full article
  10. Robert Gasser’s Memorial Day start was the most memorable of his first four big-league outings, but it was not just because he blanked the division-rival Cubs in front of a sellout crowd. Gasser also recorded a season-high seven strikeouts across six scoreless innings. That more than doubled his total of six from his first three starts combined. It starkly contrasted his previous start, in which Gasser also logged six innings against the Miami Marlins but did not record a strikeout. It’s a step in the right direction for the left-hander, who needs more strikeouts to continue producing as a starting pitcher. Gasser sports a shiny 1.96 ERA and 2.52 FIP through his first four starts, but those strong figures are carried by a few unsustainable trends. He has walked just one of the 92 hitters he has faced, and none of the 24 fly balls he has allowed have gone for home runs. As a result, other estimators like SIERA (4.04) and xFIP (3.99) offer more tempered evaluations of Gasser’s performance. Baseball Prospectus’s Deserved Run Average has assigned him a 4.75 mark that grades out 8% worse than average. These figures will worsen once he starts issuing more walks and allowing some home runs. The lack of strikeouts entering Monday was not entirely Gasser’s fault. Most aspects of his performance are a product of the game plan the Brewers have mapped out for him. According to Statcast, Gasser is hammering the strike zone at a 58.1% rate, which towers over the league average of 48.6%. His pitch usage is dramatically different than it was in Triple-A last year. Instead of relying heavily on a four-seamer and cutter mix, Gasser has limited his cutter usage and turned to his sinker just as frequently as his four-seamer. The focus when Gasser throws fastballs has been on getting the ball inside to right-handed batters to jam them. Everything about the approach Gasser has executed on the mound so far is geared toward eating innings. Throwing strikes and inducing weak contact for outs early in counts is a surefire way to keep one’s pitch count low to work deeper into games. “It’s great to have the strikeouts,” he said after Monday’s outing, “but I think it’s the pitch count. Sticking right around that 80 mark. I’ve been getting deep into games. As long as I can do that, I’m happy.” "William [Contreras] is catching, and he understands the pace of the game, and he understands what stuff he has, and he's getting guys to put the ball in play weakly," Pat Murphy said. "Realizing, hey, I don't have to punch out everybody. I punch them out when the chance is there, but in the meantime, I'm attacking the zone." It’s a sensible plan given the state of the Brewers’ injury-ravaged rotation, and it’s worked well so far. Gasser has completed six innings in three of his four starts and pitched into the seventh on Monday. His quality of contact metrics (84.5 mph average exit velocity, 1.3% barrel rate, 21.3% hard hit rate, .272 xwOBAcon) are elite. "Why would we try to throw more pitches?" Murphy said. "This is the way he's been effective up here." It’s not a sustainable path to success, though. The plan should change when Milwaukee’s need for innings becomes less dire. Gasser’s previous start against the Marlins exemplified the pitfalls of an extreme pitch-to-contact approach. He allowed five runs (four earned) on 10 hits. The average exit velocity on those hits was 88 mph, and just 20% were hit 95 mph or greater. Nine of them were singles, including two infield hits. From one lens, it looked like Gasser was snakebit with bad luck that afternoon. However, Gasser’s BABIP through three starts sat at .295 after the game, and his 3.13 FIP was still higher than his 2.65 ERA. Those metrics are not indicative of bad luck. An extremely low strikeout rate leaves a pitcher vulnerable to outings in which outcomes and sequencing do not go their way on weakly hit batted balls. It’s almost statistically impossible for a pitcher to maintain the .235 BABIP and 90% left-on-base rate that Gasser did in his first two starts with such a low strikeout rate, and some correction came almost immediately against the Marlins. Murphy revealed that Gasser came off the mound that day expressing frustration over not recording a strikeout. "If I had a taser at that point, I might have tased him," Murphy said. "I might." While the Brewers may not want Gasser's execution on the mound to be motivated by a desire for strikeouts, he'll eventually need to reintroduce elements of the game plan that produced a 28.9% strikeout rate across 299 1/3 minor-league innings. That starts with how he uses his fastballs. The focus on pitching right-handers inside has kept Gasser from elevating his fastball, which plays as a swing-and-miss pitch in the upper third of the zone due to his low arm slot. He pounded that location in Nashville, helping the pitch achieve a 27.4% whiff rate. That whiff rate is down to 15.6% in the big leagues. Unsurprisingly, many of the swings and misses Gasser has gotten with his four-seamer have come on elevated ones. The Brewers should also reincorporate Gasser’s cutter as a more prominent player in his arsenal. It spins at a similar axis to his four-seamer out of his hand but moves glove-side with nearly 10 more inches of vertical drop. That separation helps his four-seamer play up even more. Finally, Gasser is better served in the long run throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone. His sweeping slider excels at inducing chases off the plate, and he can get uncomfortable swings on four-seamers above the zone. He is sporting a robust 32.6% chase rate through his four starts. Throwing more pitches outside the zone will result in more walks, but the added strikeouts would make it a net gain. The pitch-to-contact version of Gasser has been exactly what the Brewers needed, but Gasser’s needs as a pitcher also matter. The ultimate goal for both parties should be to make Gasser as efficient as possible. His newfound ability to generate weak contact bodes well for his outlook, but marrying it with his swing-and-miss approach from his minor-league career is the best way to achieve consistent efficiency in the long term.
  11. Robert Gasser has been exactly what the Brewers needed through his first four starts, but his game plan will eventually have to change to produce more swings and misses. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Robert Gasser’s Memorial Day start was the most memorable of his first four big-league outings, but it was not just because he blanked the division-rival Cubs in front of a sellout crowd. Gasser also recorded a season-high seven strikeouts across six scoreless innings. That more than doubled his total of six from his first three starts combined. It starkly contrasted his previous start, in which Gasser also logged six innings against the Miami Marlins but did not record a strikeout. It’s a step in the right direction for the left-hander, who needs more strikeouts to continue producing as a starting pitcher. Gasser sports a shiny 1.96 ERA and 2.52 FIP through his first four starts, but those strong figures are carried by a few unsustainable trends. He has walked just one of the 92 hitters he has faced, and none of the 24 fly balls he has allowed have gone for home runs. As a result, other estimators like SIERA (4.04) and xFIP (3.99) offer more tempered evaluations of Gasser’s performance. Baseball Prospectus’s Deserved Run Average has assigned him a 4.75 mark that grades out 8% worse than average. These figures will worsen once he starts issuing more walks and allowing some home runs. The lack of strikeouts entering Monday was not entirely Gasser’s fault. Most aspects of his performance are a product of the game plan the Brewers have mapped out for him. According to Statcast, Gasser is hammering the strike zone at a 58.1% rate, which towers over the league average of 48.6%. His pitch usage is dramatically different than it was in Triple-A last year. Instead of relying heavily on a four-seamer and cutter mix, Gasser has limited his cutter usage and turned to his sinker just as frequently as his four-seamer. The focus when Gasser throws fastballs has been on getting the ball inside to right-handed batters to jam them. Everything about the approach Gasser has executed on the mound so far is geared toward eating innings. Throwing strikes and inducing weak contact for outs early in counts is a surefire way to keep one’s pitch count low to work deeper into games. “It’s great to have the strikeouts,” he said after Monday’s outing, “but I think it’s the pitch count. Sticking right around that 80 mark. I’ve been getting deep into games. As long as I can do that, I’m happy.” "William [Contreras] is catching, and he understands the pace of the game, and he understands what stuff he has, and he's getting guys to put the ball in play weakly," Pat Murphy said. "Realizing, hey, I don't have to punch out everybody. I punch them out when the chance is there, but in the meantime, I'm attacking the zone." It’s a sensible plan given the state of the Brewers’ injury-ravaged rotation, and it’s worked well so far. Gasser has completed six innings in three of his four starts and pitched into the seventh on Monday. His quality of contact metrics (84.5 mph average exit velocity, 1.3% barrel rate, 21.3% hard hit rate, .272 xwOBAcon) are elite. "Why would we try to throw more pitches?" Murphy said. "This is the way he's been effective up here." It’s not a sustainable path to success, though. The plan should change when Milwaukee’s need for innings becomes less dire. Gasser’s previous start against the Marlins exemplified the pitfalls of an extreme pitch-to-contact approach. He allowed five runs (four earned) on 10 hits. The average exit velocity on those hits was 88 mph, and just 20% were hit 95 mph or greater. Nine of them were singles, including two infield hits. From one lens, it looked like Gasser was snakebit with bad luck that afternoon. However, Gasser’s BABIP through three starts sat at .295 after the game, and his 3.13 FIP was still higher than his 2.65 ERA. Those metrics are not indicative of bad luck. An extremely low strikeout rate leaves a pitcher vulnerable to outings in which outcomes and sequencing do not go their way on weakly hit batted balls. It’s almost statistically impossible for a pitcher to maintain the .235 BABIP and 90% left-on-base rate that Gasser did in his first two starts with such a low strikeout rate, and some correction came almost immediately against the Marlins. Murphy revealed that Gasser came off the mound that day expressing frustration over not recording a strikeout. "If I had a taser at that point, I might have tased him," Murphy said. "I might." While the Brewers may not want Gasser's execution on the mound to be motivated by a desire for strikeouts, he'll eventually need to reintroduce elements of the game plan that produced a 28.9% strikeout rate across 299 1/3 minor-league innings. That starts with how he uses his fastballs. The focus on pitching right-handers inside has kept Gasser from elevating his fastball, which plays as a swing-and-miss pitch in the upper third of the zone due to his low arm slot. He pounded that location in Nashville, helping the pitch achieve a 27.4% whiff rate. That whiff rate is down to 15.6% in the big leagues. Unsurprisingly, many of the swings and misses Gasser has gotten with his four-seamer have come on elevated ones. The Brewers should also reincorporate Gasser’s cutter as a more prominent player in his arsenal. It spins at a similar axis to his four-seamer out of his hand but moves glove-side with nearly 10 more inches of vertical drop. That separation helps his four-seamer play up even more. Finally, Gasser is better served in the long run throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone. His sweeping slider excels at inducing chases off the plate, and he can get uncomfortable swings on four-seamers above the zone. He is sporting a robust 32.6% chase rate through his four starts. Throwing more pitches outside the zone will result in more walks, but the added strikeouts would make it a net gain. The pitch-to-contact version of Gasser has been exactly what the Brewers needed, but Gasser’s needs as a pitcher also matter. The ultimate goal for both parties should be to make Gasser as efficient as possible. His newfound ability to generate weak contact bodes well for his outlook, but marrying it with his swing-and-miss approach from his minor-league career is the best way to achieve consistent efficiency in the long term. View full article
  12. After Joe Ross' back strain, the Brewers have reached the threshold of needing to add pitching externally. A veteran who recently became available on waivers could be just the arm they need. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Piecing together innings in the starting rotation has been among the chief challenges for Brewers personnel this season. Injuries to Wade Miley, DL Hall, and Jakob Junis ravaged the team’s depth early on. The club was making it work by plugging Bryse Wilson, Robert Gasser, and Tobias Myers into its rotation, testing the limits of the production it could receive from its on-hand starters without external reinforcements. After Joe Ross hit the injured list with a back strain on Tuesday, however, the Brewers have crossed into the territory of needing to add an outside starter. Enter Brad Keller. The Chicago White Sox designated the right-hander for assignment on Sunday, concluding a 16 2/3-inning stint on the South Side. Before signing a minor-league deal there in March, Keller spent the first six years of his career as a Kansas City Royal, meaning all his big-league experience has been on teams with lackluster track records at pitching development. It is not surprising, then, that Keller’s recent résumé is similarly poor. Since the start of the 2021 season, he owns a 5.13 ERA, 4.88 FIP, and 4.96 SIERA. Times got especially tough in an injury-plagued 2023, but Keller has not been effective when he has been healthy enough to pitch. Despite those inauspicious results, the foundation of a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm is there. So is the fit with this Brewers team. Keller’s greatest attribute is one that would play well with the Brewers’ infield defense behind him. He boasts a 51.8% ground ball rate for his career, and that has held at a near-identical 51.4% since his struggles began in 2021. In that latter span, Keller has yielded a .267 batting average on ground balls. That’s the 10th-worst among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched, and it’s well above both the league average of .234 and Keller’s expected batting average on grounders of .220. Of the 115 pitchers on that leaderboard, he has the second-highest gap between his actual and expected batting average on ground balls. A good deal of that misfortune can be attributed to the defenders behind him. According to Statcast, infielders behind Keller have combined for -8 outs above average since 2021, the 23rd-worst mark in baseball. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ infield ranks sixth in baseball with 25 outs above average. The change of scenery could provide an immediate boost to Keller’s results. Beyond his penchant for inducing ground balls, Keller has always had an intriguing arsenal. It seems he is settling on the best way to shape and deploy it. Keller has thrown at least five distinct types of pitches throughout his career but has leaned predominantly on a three-pitch mix this year. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, 93.4% of his pitches have been a cutting fastball, a slider, or a changeup. His sinker and the curveball he developed in 2023 have subsided into occasional change-of-pace pitches. Statcast classifies Keller’s primary fastball as a four-seamer, but most of them have a few inches of glove-side cut. After doubling the lateral movement on his slider from 2022 to 2023, he has fashioned it into more of a slurve-like pitch this year, possibly to create greater separation from the cutter. Developing the changeup is perhaps the greatest stride Keller has made. Over the last two years, he has added more vertical drop to the pitch and ramped up its usage to positive results against both lefties and righties. Keller has always been a pitch-to-contact specialist, but his refined pitch mix appears to be generating more swings and misses. In 30 ⅔ professional innings this year, his whiff and swinging strike rates are up to 27.8% and 12.1%, respectively. Hitters have made contact on 78.2% of swings on pitches in the strike zone, including 81.6% in the big leagues. That’s a noticeable drop from Keller’s career 87.7% zone contact rate entering 2024. This is a pitcher who can be serviceable as a member of Milwaukee’s run-prevention unit. Just as importantly, he is stretched out and can cover some innings while other starters are sidelined. As of this writing, Keller is available on the waiver wire. If the Brewers have an opportunity to claim him, they should consider doing so. View full article
  13. Piecing together innings in the starting rotation has been among the chief challenges for Brewers personnel this season. Injuries to Wade Miley, DL Hall, and Jakob Junis ravaged the team’s depth early on. The club was making it work by plugging Bryse Wilson, Robert Gasser, and Tobias Myers into its rotation, testing the limits of the production it could receive from its on-hand starters without external reinforcements. After Joe Ross hit the injured list with a back strain on Tuesday, however, the Brewers have crossed into the territory of needing to add an outside starter. Enter Brad Keller. The Chicago White Sox designated the right-hander for assignment on Sunday, concluding a 16 2/3-inning stint on the South Side. Before signing a minor-league deal there in March, Keller spent the first six years of his career as a Kansas City Royal, meaning all his big-league experience has been on teams with lackluster track records at pitching development. It is not surprising, then, that Keller’s recent résumé is similarly poor. Since the start of the 2021 season, he owns a 5.13 ERA, 4.88 FIP, and 4.96 SIERA. Times got especially tough in an injury-plagued 2023, but Keller has not been effective when he has been healthy enough to pitch. Despite those inauspicious results, the foundation of a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm is there. So is the fit with this Brewers team. Keller’s greatest attribute is one that would play well with the Brewers’ infield defense behind him. He boasts a 51.8% ground ball rate for his career, and that has held at a near-identical 51.4% since his struggles began in 2021. In that latter span, Keller has yielded a .267 batting average on ground balls. That’s the 10th-worst among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched, and it’s well above both the league average of .234 and Keller’s expected batting average on grounders of .220. Of the 115 pitchers on that leaderboard, he has the second-highest gap between his actual and expected batting average on ground balls. A good deal of that misfortune can be attributed to the defenders behind him. According to Statcast, infielders behind Keller have combined for -8 outs above average since 2021, the 23rd-worst mark in baseball. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ infield ranks sixth in baseball with 25 outs above average. The change of scenery could provide an immediate boost to Keller’s results. Beyond his penchant for inducing ground balls, Keller has always had an intriguing arsenal. It seems he is settling on the best way to shape and deploy it. Keller has thrown at least five distinct types of pitches throughout his career but has leaned predominantly on a three-pitch mix this year. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, 93.4% of his pitches have been a cutting fastball, a slider, or a changeup. His sinker and the curveball he developed in 2023 have subsided into occasional change-of-pace pitches. Statcast classifies Keller’s primary fastball as a four-seamer, but most of them have a few inches of glove-side cut. After doubling the lateral movement on his slider from 2022 to 2023, he has fashioned it into more of a slurve-like pitch this year, possibly to create greater separation from the cutter. Developing the changeup is perhaps the greatest stride Keller has made. Over the last two years, he has added more vertical drop to the pitch and ramped up its usage to positive results against both lefties and righties. Keller has always been a pitch-to-contact specialist, but his refined pitch mix appears to be generating more swings and misses. In 30 ⅔ professional innings this year, his whiff and swinging strike rates are up to 27.8% and 12.1%, respectively. Hitters have made contact on 78.2% of swings on pitches in the strike zone, including 81.6% in the big leagues. That’s a noticeable drop from Keller’s career 87.7% zone contact rate entering 2024. This is a pitcher who can be serviceable as a member of Milwaukee’s run-prevention unit. Just as importantly, he is stretched out and can cover some innings while other starters are sidelined. As of this writing, Keller is available on the waiver wire. If the Brewers have an opportunity to claim him, they should consider doing so.
  14. DL Hall made his first start in what figures to be a multi-appearance rehab assignment on Sunday, throwing one inning for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Of Hall’s 11 pitches, seven were fastballs. His heater sat at 94 miles per hour, and he touched 95 twice. That was a notable development, even in a small sample. Hall never touched 95 during his four starts with the Brewers at the start of the regular season, and threw just one pitch (94.6) that was rounded up to that mark by the stadium gun. Finding and maintaining that kind of velocity are focal points of his rehab. “That’s definitely a big point of emphasis for me,” Hall said. “I’ve always thrown really hard, so it’s kind of something that I crave a little bit, so we’re working towards that. Getting back to multiple 95s [in] a day is the best I’ve had all year.” In those four starts, Hall’s fastball lacked the life that ensorcelled scouts and made him a whiff machine out of the Orioles’ bullpen last year. The pitch got up to 97 during spring training, but was never fully right after the team packed up and headed north. In addition to shedding several ticks of velocity, it also lost multiple inches of induced vertical break, the kind of movement that often helps a good four-seamer carry through the strike zone and deceive hitters. These developments turned a plus fastball into a batting practice pitch. Hall’s velocity tumbled further after he aggravated his left knee while fielding a bunt in his last start on Apr. 20. He revealed that he’s dealt with the ailment since 2021, but the pain and impact on mobility never reached an extent that kept him off the mound. After the bunt play, he and the Brewers decided it was best to give him time to recover and strengthen the knee. “It was kind of one of those things where it was either keep spinning my wheels and trying to fight through it, or take this time early in the year and get back to 100 percent,” Hall said. While Hall has not used it as an excuse, it stands to reason that the lack of stability in his push-off knee (which helps him generate power as he drives down the mound) hampered his ability to throw the ball with conviction. “I kind of described it as one of those car dealership balloon guys,” he said. “Those things that blow up and wave everywhere. That’s kind of what my back leg felt like.” Restoring that stability, he acknowledged, is key to rediscovering the life on his fastball. “I’ve always been a super big leg driver. That’s kind of where my velocity’s always [come] from, to kind of take the stress off the arm. Just having that super stable and strong lower body is huge for me.” Hall’s next appearance will be with the Triple-A Nashville Sounds. The Brewers have not yet decided whether to stretch him back out as a starter or limit him to shorter stints as a reliever. Stuff, not length, is the focus for both parties at the moment. The short-term plan, Hall said, is to make a few more one-inning appearances with the Sounds to prove that the lively fastball is back. Then, the goal will shift to maintaining velocity as he builds up his pitch count. Hall remains an integral part of Milwaukee’s pitching mix in 2024 and beyond. Sunday was a step in the right direction as he tries to work his way back into form.
  15. DL Hall understands the importance of rediscovering his fastball velocity as he rehabs from a left knee sprain. His first minor-league outing was a step in the right direction. Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports DL Hall made his first start in what figures to be a multi-appearance rehab assignment on Sunday, throwing one inning for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Of Hall’s 11 pitches, seven were fastballs. His heater sat at 94 miles per hour, and he touched 95 twice. That was a notable development, even in a small sample. Hall never touched 95 during his four starts with the Brewers at the start of the regular season, and threw just one pitch (94.6) that was rounded up to that mark by the stadium gun. Finding and maintaining that kind of velocity are focal points of his rehab. “That’s definitely a big point of emphasis for me,” Hall said. “I’ve always thrown really hard, so it’s kind of something that I crave a little bit, so we’re working towards that. Getting back to multiple 95s [in] a day is the best I’ve had all year.” In those four starts, Hall’s fastball lacked the life that ensorcelled scouts and made him a whiff machine out of the Orioles’ bullpen last year. The pitch got up to 97 during spring training, but was never fully right after the team packed up and headed north. In addition to shedding several ticks of velocity, it also lost multiple inches of induced vertical break, the kind of movement that often helps a good four-seamer carry through the strike zone and deceive hitters. These developments turned a plus fastball into a batting practice pitch. Hall’s velocity tumbled further after he aggravated his left knee while fielding a bunt in his last start on Apr. 20. He revealed that he’s dealt with the ailment since 2021, but the pain and impact on mobility never reached an extent that kept him off the mound. After the bunt play, he and the Brewers decided it was best to give him time to recover and strengthen the knee. “It was kind of one of those things where it was either keep spinning my wheels and trying to fight through it, or take this time early in the year and get back to 100 percent,” Hall said. While Hall has not used it as an excuse, it stands to reason that the lack of stability in his push-off knee (which helps him generate power as he drives down the mound) hampered his ability to throw the ball with conviction. “I kind of described it as one of those car dealership balloon guys,” he said. “Those things that blow up and wave everywhere. That’s kind of what my back leg felt like.” Restoring that stability, he acknowledged, is key to rediscovering the life on his fastball. “I’ve always been a super big leg driver. That’s kind of where my velocity’s always [come] from, to kind of take the stress off the arm. Just having that super stable and strong lower body is huge for me.” Hall’s next appearance will be with the Triple-A Nashville Sounds. The Brewers have not yet decided whether to stretch him back out as a starter or limit him to shorter stints as a reliever. Stuff, not length, is the focus for both parties at the moment. The short-term plan, Hall said, is to make a few more one-inning appearances with the Sounds to prove that the lively fastball is back. Then, the goal will shift to maintaining velocity as he builds up his pitch count. Hall remains an integral part of Milwaukee’s pitching mix in 2024 and beyond. Sunday was a step in the right direction as he tries to work his way back into form. View full article
  16. The loss of Rhys Hoskins initiated some shuffling of the Brewers’ position-player mix. Hoskins strained his right hamstring on Monday night, and after he decided against seeking a second opinion, the club placed him on the injured list the following afternoon. In response to losing their starting first baseman, the Brewers could have promoted another to replenish their depth at the position. Tyler Black has played almost exclusively first base in Triple-A Nashville and made all three of his starts in the field there during his recent big-league cup of coffee. Instead, the team promoted Owen Miller, who has 162 games of professional experience at first but is not a clean replacement for Hoskins. The Brewers made another move the following day, optioning infielder Oliver Dunn. Once again, it was not Black who received a promotion, but outfielder Chris Roller. It should be noted that Black was optioned on May 8 and had yet to spend the mandatory minimum of 10 days in the minor leagues before becoming eligible for a recall. Still, the Brewers could have promoted him as the corresponding call-up for Hoskins’s move to the IL, but they didn’t. Black could have played first, Jake Bauers could have remained in left field, and Miller could have been a corresponding move for Dunn. The bottom line is, Milwaukee lost its slugging first baseman and responded by recalling a pair of bench players with minimal offensive impact instead of handing an opportunity to one of its top prospects. There are valid reasons for that, most of them concerning roster construction. Black is not as clean a fit on the current roster as one might initially assume. Even with Hoskins sidelined, Black is not near the top of the first base depth chart. Bauers is the best left-handed option on both sides of the ball. Gary Sánchez may be Bauers’s platoon partner, as a means to work his bat into the lineup. He was doing pregame work at first base throughout the recent homestand, and Pat Murphy said he is “definitely a possibility” there. The more experienced Miller may also be ahead of Black, who has struggled defensively while transitioning from third base. The Brewers appear to view Black mainly as a DH, and that position is already filled in the short term. In addition to Sánchez and William Contreras, Christian Yelich is receiving regular at-bats there as he builds strength in his return from a back injury. Yelich has alternated between DH and left field in his six games since returning, and figures to remain on that plan until the Brewers feel he is ready to handle full-time work in the field. Yelich’s status arguably creates a greater need in the outfield than Hoskins’s does at first base. Enter Roller, a plus defender with experience at all three outfield positions. While losing Hoskins opened a spot in the middle of the lineup, the Brewers already had hot-hitting replacements on hand in Bauers and Sánchez, plus the ascendant Joey Ortiz. The ripple effect that motivated the subsequent roster moves was on the bench. The glove-first Roller and versatile Miller are better fits for those roles than Black, so they joined the team. Meanwhile, Black will continue to receive everyday at-bats until a better big-league opportunity emerges.
  17. With their slugging first baseman sidelined for at least two weeks with a hamstring strain, the Brewers opted not to backfill the position with Tyler Black, but to recall a utility infielder and a glove-first outfielder. Image courtesy of © Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports The loss of Rhys Hoskins initiated some shuffling of the Brewers’ position-player mix. Hoskins strained his right hamstring on Monday night, and after he decided against seeking a second opinion, the club placed him on the injured list the following afternoon. In response to losing their starting first baseman, the Brewers could have promoted another to replenish their depth at the position. Tyler Black has played almost exclusively first base in Triple-A Nashville and made all three of his starts in the field there during his recent big-league cup of coffee. Instead, the team promoted Owen Miller, who has 162 games of professional experience at first but is not a clean replacement for Hoskins. The Brewers made another move the following day, optioning infielder Oliver Dunn. Once again, it was not Black who received a promotion, but outfielder Chris Roller. It should be noted that Black was optioned on May 8 and had yet to spend the mandatory minimum of 10 days in the minor leagues before becoming eligible for a recall. Still, the Brewers could have promoted him as the corresponding call-up for Hoskins’s move to the IL, but they didn’t. Black could have played first, Jake Bauers could have remained in left field, and Miller could have been a corresponding move for Dunn. The bottom line is, Milwaukee lost its slugging first baseman and responded by recalling a pair of bench players with minimal offensive impact instead of handing an opportunity to one of its top prospects. There are valid reasons for that, most of them concerning roster construction. Black is not as clean a fit on the current roster as one might initially assume. Even with Hoskins sidelined, Black is not near the top of the first base depth chart. Bauers is the best left-handed option on both sides of the ball. Gary Sánchez may be Bauers’s platoon partner, as a means to work his bat into the lineup. He was doing pregame work at first base throughout the recent homestand, and Pat Murphy said he is “definitely a possibility” there. The more experienced Miller may also be ahead of Black, who has struggled defensively while transitioning from third base. The Brewers appear to view Black mainly as a DH, and that position is already filled in the short term. In addition to Sánchez and William Contreras, Christian Yelich is receiving regular at-bats there as he builds strength in his return from a back injury. Yelich has alternated between DH and left field in his six games since returning, and figures to remain on that plan until the Brewers feel he is ready to handle full-time work in the field. Yelich’s status arguably creates a greater need in the outfield than Hoskins’s does at first base. Enter Roller, a plus defender with experience at all three outfield positions. While losing Hoskins opened a spot in the middle of the lineup, the Brewers already had hot-hitting replacements on hand in Bauers and Sánchez, plus the ascendant Joey Ortiz. The ripple effect that motivated the subsequent roster moves was on the bench. The glove-first Roller and versatile Miller are better fits for those roles than Black, so they joined the team. Meanwhile, Black will continue to receive everyday at-bats until a better big-league opportunity emerges. View full article
  18. Brewers starter Colin Rea entered his start on Monday night having thrown his splitter 5.1% of the time this season. That constituted a continuation of his approach from last year, when 5.6% of his pitches were splitters. Rea worked on the offspeed pitch over the winter and during spring training, but he hadn’t broken it out much since. It was a different story during the Brewers’ series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rea threw 17 splitters, which is both his highest splitter total and his highest usage rate in a start as a Brewer. Yet, even that does not accurately reflect how integral the pitch was, in yet another innings-eating effort by the veteran. Rea threw 14 of those splitters after the Pirates scored all three of their runs against him within the first six outs of the game. It was an intentional in-game adjustment that changed the course of his outing. After the third inning started with an Andrew McCutchen single and a Bryan Reynolds double, Rea was down 3-0 and already at 59 pitches. It was shaping up to be a short outing. Four of the five hits Rea had allowed, including Jack Suwinski’s two-run home run in the first inning, came against his sinker. After Reynolds’s double, he immediately pivoted to a splitter-heavy mix against the lefty-heavy lineup, a change to the game plan Pat Murphy said was discussed in the dugout minutes prior. Rea struck out Oneil Cruz on a seven-pitch sequence in which all three swings and misses came on splitters. He didn’t look back, allowing just one hit the rest of the way and completing six innings on 102 pitches. The splitter was at the heart of that turnaround, accounting for 26.8% of his final 56 pitches. It induced five whiffs out of nine swings. “It can be part of my game, just kind of seeing what they’re trying to do at the plate, seeing their approach,” Rea said. “Just kind of changing speeds a little bit, and [the splitter] is definitely an option that we used tonight. Sometimes that might be the curveball, but tonight it was the changeup.” The in-game adjustment was a testament to what makes Rea a reliable source of innings in a tenuous Brewers rotation. His deep arsenal allows him to craft how he mixes and sequences pitches to best keep hitters off-balance. “He has such a variety that he can say, ‘Wow, they’re sitting on this,’ or, ‘Wow, my sinker isn’t as good right now. My sinker in isn’t getting in in,’ or, ‘I’m not getting that comeback [strike] call,’ whatever, and he can make that adjustment,” Murphy said. Rea indicated that the increased splitter usage was a change specific to this particular start, but also left open the possibility of using it more moving forward. “It’s been feeling good. Definitely a pitch we can utilize a little more.” He may be best served making the splitter a more prominent part of his arsenal. Left-handed batters tagged Rea for an .817 OPS last year, compared to a .650 OPS for right-handers. It’s been more of the same this year: righties have a .509 OPS, but lefties sit at .828. An effective offspeed pitch can help Rea even out that split. His splitter has above-average horizontal fade, away from a left-handed batter, and can be effective when he locates it well. Monday night was an example of the role it can play.
  19. Colin Rea turned around his outing against the Pirates Monday night, with an infrequently-used pitch that he should deploy more often. Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK Brewers starter Colin Rea entered his start on Monday night having thrown his splitter 5.1% of the time this season. That constituted a continuation of his approach from last year, when 5.6% of his pitches were splitters. Rea worked on the offspeed pitch over the winter and during spring training, but he hadn’t broken it out much since. It was a different story during the Brewers’ series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rea threw 17 splitters, which is both his highest splitter total and his highest usage rate in a start as a Brewer. Yet, even that does not accurately reflect how integral the pitch was, in yet another innings-eating effort by the veteran. Rea threw 14 of those splitters after the Pirates scored all three of their runs against him within the first six outs of the game. It was an intentional in-game adjustment that changed the course of his outing. After the third inning started with an Andrew McCutchen single and a Bryan Reynolds double, Rea was down 3-0 and already at 59 pitches. It was shaping up to be a short outing. Four of the five hits Rea had allowed, including Jack Suwinski’s two-run home run in the first inning, came against his sinker. After Reynolds’s double, he immediately pivoted to a splitter-heavy mix against the lefty-heavy lineup, a change to the game plan Pat Murphy said was discussed in the dugout minutes prior. Rea struck out Oneil Cruz on a seven-pitch sequence in which all three swings and misses came on splitters. He didn’t look back, allowing just one hit the rest of the way and completing six innings on 102 pitches. The splitter was at the heart of that turnaround, accounting for 26.8% of his final 56 pitches. It induced five whiffs out of nine swings. “It can be part of my game, just kind of seeing what they’re trying to do at the plate, seeing their approach,” Rea said. “Just kind of changing speeds a little bit, and [the splitter] is definitely an option that we used tonight. Sometimes that might be the curveball, but tonight it was the changeup.” The in-game adjustment was a testament to what makes Rea a reliable source of innings in a tenuous Brewers rotation. His deep arsenal allows him to craft how he mixes and sequences pitches to best keep hitters off-balance. “He has such a variety that he can say, ‘Wow, they’re sitting on this,’ or, ‘Wow, my sinker isn’t as good right now. My sinker in isn’t getting in in,’ or, ‘I’m not getting that comeback [strike] call,’ whatever, and he can make that adjustment,” Murphy said. Rea indicated that the increased splitter usage was a change specific to this particular start, but also left open the possibility of using it more moving forward. “It’s been feeling good. Definitely a pitch we can utilize a little more.” He may be best served making the splitter a more prominent part of his arsenal. Left-handed batters tagged Rea for an .817 OPS last year, compared to a .650 OPS for right-handers. It’s been more of the same this year: righties have a .509 OPS, but lefties sit at .828. An effective offspeed pitch can help Rea even out that split. His splitter has above-average horizontal fade, away from a left-handed batter, and can be effective when he locates it well. Monday night was an example of the role it can play. View full article
  20. With a quarter of the regular season in the books, the Brewers' methodology for evaluating and motivating their team has come into focus. Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports Sunday afternoon’s series finale against the Cardinals marked the Brewers’ 40th game and the near quarter-mark of the 2024 season. With that in mind, Pat Murphy was asked the following afternoon for his thoughts on his club’s performance so far. “I’ve had a good time,” he quipped. There have been more good times than bad for the Brewers, who lead the National League Central with a 24-17 record despite a rash of injuries to key players. However, Murphy quickly elaborated that having a good time doesn’t mean he is fully satisfied with his team. “I’m just worried about us getting better. We have to get better.” The MLB regular season is the longest and arguably the most intense schedule in professional sports. Noise and distractions of all kinds are prominent throughout a 162-game season. Players and teams have hot and cold streaks regardless of their talent level. “You can’t listen to a lot of it,” Murphy said, referring to outside commentary, the performance of other teams and players, and even the standings in one’s division. “We got a job to do, and we know the reality of it. You can’t coast uphill. We got an uphill battle.” Despite the Brewers making clear that their counterbuilding approach carries the goal of competing every year, many pundits and projection systems characterized this season as a retooling year due to their perceptions of the roster. The Brewers always planned to be playoff contenders, though. With that goal comes lofty expectations for a young roster and accountability when they fall short. Results in baseball are fickle in small samples, and many elements of the game lie outside a player or coach’s control. The best way to evaluate and grow is by focusing on what one can control. Pitchers can control pitch selection and execution. Hitters have autonomy over their swing decisions. All players control whether they are mentally engaged with the game and playing smart baseball. Doing those things well will not always lead to success in small samples, but it almost always yields results in the long run, assuming the necessary talent is present. The Brewers have the talent. The coaches and players share the responsibility of ensuring it shines by focusing on controlling what they can control. That means acknowledging what they did right and wrong each night, regardless of the outcome. “The process is the deal,” Murphy said. “We want to win, but if you do the process continually over and over, and you’re mindful of it, you’re continuing to improve your awareness and the responsibility of being ready for that pitch. If you’re constantly doing that, you’re gonna win more times than not, possibly. It’s the best way to ensure [winning].” Because he focuses on process over results, Murphy still sees room for improvement despite his club’s .585 winning percentage. The Brewers took three out of four games from the Cardinals, but Murphy bluntly noted what he perceived as a lack of relentlessness in the series finale. After the offense worked Miles Mikolas for more than 40 pitches in a three-run first inning, he settled in to throw six innings as St. Louis mounted a comeback. “43 pitches in the first inning against a veteran pitcher, up three to nothing, and 55 in the next five, that’s not relentless. Don’t do that,” Murphy said. In light of that message, perhaps it was no coincidence that the offense looked relentless in an eventful loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night. Mitch Keller consistently dotted the edges during his six scoreless innings, but the Brewers still applied consistent pressure with eight hits. They then brought the deficit to one run in consecutive innings against Pittsburgh’s bullpen, the second time on a grand slam by Jake Bauers in the eighth. Murphy’s postgame comments perhaps best encapsulated how he and his coaching staff are trying to guide this team. They see potential for this group to do special things, but getting there will require hard work and accountability. “The way they battle, that’s just a sign. We did a lot of things not so good, but we had an opportunity to win the game… That’s why you love this team.” View full article
  21. Sunday afternoon’s series finale against the Cardinals marked the Brewers’ 40th game and the near quarter-mark of the 2024 season. With that in mind, Pat Murphy was asked the following afternoon for his thoughts on his club’s performance so far. “I’ve had a good time,” he quipped. There have been more good times than bad for the Brewers, who lead the National League Central with a 24-17 record despite a rash of injuries to key players. However, Murphy quickly elaborated that having a good time doesn’t mean he is fully satisfied with his team. “I’m just worried about us getting better. We have to get better.” The MLB regular season is the longest and arguably the most intense schedule in professional sports. Noise and distractions of all kinds are prominent throughout a 162-game season. Players and teams have hot and cold streaks regardless of their talent level. “You can’t listen to a lot of it,” Murphy said, referring to outside commentary, the performance of other teams and players, and even the standings in one’s division. “We got a job to do, and we know the reality of it. You can’t coast uphill. We got an uphill battle.” Despite the Brewers making clear that their counterbuilding approach carries the goal of competing every year, many pundits and projection systems characterized this season as a retooling year due to their perceptions of the roster. The Brewers always planned to be playoff contenders, though. With that goal comes lofty expectations for a young roster and accountability when they fall short. Results in baseball are fickle in small samples, and many elements of the game lie outside a player or coach’s control. The best way to evaluate and grow is by focusing on what one can control. Pitchers can control pitch selection and execution. Hitters have autonomy over their swing decisions. All players control whether they are mentally engaged with the game and playing smart baseball. Doing those things well will not always lead to success in small samples, but it almost always yields results in the long run, assuming the necessary talent is present. The Brewers have the talent. The coaches and players share the responsibility of ensuring it shines by focusing on controlling what they can control. That means acknowledging what they did right and wrong each night, regardless of the outcome. “The process is the deal,” Murphy said. “We want to win, but if you do the process continually over and over, and you’re mindful of it, you’re continuing to improve your awareness and the responsibility of being ready for that pitch. If you’re constantly doing that, you’re gonna win more times than not, possibly. It’s the best way to ensure [winning].” Because he focuses on process over results, Murphy still sees room for improvement despite his club’s .585 winning percentage. The Brewers took three out of four games from the Cardinals, but Murphy bluntly noted what he perceived as a lack of relentlessness in the series finale. After the offense worked Miles Mikolas for more than 40 pitches in a three-run first inning, he settled in to throw six innings as St. Louis mounted a comeback. “43 pitches in the first inning against a veteran pitcher, up three to nothing, and 55 in the next five, that’s not relentless. Don’t do that,” Murphy said. In light of that message, perhaps it was no coincidence that the offense looked relentless in an eventful loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night. Mitch Keller consistently dotted the edges during his six scoreless innings, but the Brewers still applied consistent pressure with eight hits. They then brought the deficit to one run in consecutive innings against Pittsburgh’s bullpen, the second time on a grand slam by Jake Bauers in the eighth. Murphy’s postgame comments perhaps best encapsulated how he and his coaching staff are trying to guide this team. They see potential for this group to do special things, but getting there will require hard work and accountability. “The way they battle, that’s just a sign. We did a lot of things not so good, but we had an opportunity to win the game… That’s why you love this team.”
  22. Brice Turang's hot start to the season is not so much a transformation but a return to his roots as a hitter. Either way, his growth at the plate is no fluke and bodes well for his long-term outlook. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Brice Turang was arguably the worst offensive player in baseball as a rookie. That’s not an exaggeration. Turang’s 60 wRC+ in 448 plate appearances last year tied with Tim Anderson for the lowest in baseball among hitters with that much playing time. Those struggles raised concerns about his long-term viability as Milwaukee’s starting second baseman. Offseason acquisitions Oliver Dunn and Christian Arroyo appeared as candidates to usurp him at the keystone. When Sal Frelick began preparing to play infield, it seemed even more plausible that Turang’s job was in jeopardy. A few months later, that feels like a distant memory. Turang is not only thriving but has also become a mainstay in an improved lineup. He entered Saturday hitting .312/.379/.440. His 136 wRC+ trails only William Contreras among qualified Brewers and ranks sixth among all qualified second basemen. The turnaround has not surprised Pat Murphy, who intentionally voiced confidence in Turang during spring training and named him the starter at the keystone as other players battled for time at third base and in the outfield. Murphy predicted Turang to take a “quantum leap.” However one wishes to characterize it, Turang is an undeniably better hitter than he was a year ago. Turang was one of the worst fastball hitters in baseball last year. According to Statcast, he finished with a -20.7 run value against heaters. He was particularly overmatched by velocity, slugging .133 against fastballs thrown at least 95 mph. What was once his kryptonite has become one of his greatest strengths. Turang has been an on-base machine against fastballs, hitting .366 with a .411 wOBA against them through the season's first six weeks. That includes a .423 average and .444 wOBA on pitches thrown 95 mph or above. He has slashed his whiff rate against fastballs from 20.5% to 9.1% Making more contact has been a theme for Turang, who has become one of baseball’s best bat-to-ball savants. His strikeout rate is down to 13.6%, and his 12% whiff rate ranks in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. He’s arrived at this point by transforming his stance, swing mechanics, and approach. Here’s an example of a fastball away overpowering Turang in 2023. turang 2023.mp4 Here’s the 2024 iteration of Turang shooting a similar pitch to the opposite field for a single. turang 2024.mp4 Turang started overhauling his setup in the box after a midseason demotion to Triple-A last year, closing off his stance and replacing his leg kick with a toe tap in two-strike counts. Everything has become even more compact and quieter this year. Turang is starting with his hands closer to his body, his bat closer to his shoulder, and minimal movement in his lower body. His swing path is shorter and more direct to the ball. Last year’s Turang was trying to do damage. This year’s version is trying to put the ball in play and reach base. The latter exemplifies Turang's offensive skill set and approach throughout his minor-league career: getting on base and impacting the game with his speed. He is back to playing the kind of game that suits his strengths as a player, and the results have followed. “I think of a vocalist,” Murphy said. “[They’re] capable of singing different types of music, but this one really works for the production we’re trying to put on. This kind of game for Brice works for us and, I think, for him.” The pressure on young players to produce in the big leagues can lead them astray from what got them to that level. It happened to Turang, whose swing grew long and increasingly out of sorts as he seemingly chased more power. Instead of shooting the ball for singles and getting on base, he was striking out and hitting soft flyouts. Murphy knew that wasn’t the real Turang. He remained confident that version would emerge with time. “You know it’s a mental game,” he said. “And it can skew you on who a player is in their first year. You can say, ‘Wow, this guy doesn’t look right,’ you know? ‘He doesn’t do this.’ You just gotta wait until it all settles down.” Things have started to settle down for Turang, who is no longer trying to lift the ball as he was last year. His average launch angle has decreased from 11.4 to 5.1 degrees. Hitting the ball closer to the ground is beneficial for Turang. He is most valuable when he gets on base, and ground balls and line drives are far more likely to achieve that goal than fly balls. Reaching base at a high clip has enabled Turang to impact games with his speed. He’s a perfect 15-for-15 on stolen base attempts, a total that ranks second in baseball. Turang’s production and style of play earned him a promotion to the leadoff spot in the final game of the Brewers’ previous series in Kansas City. In his first three games atop the lineup, he has gone 5-for-12 with four doubles, a walk, and two steals. “It just gives our offense another dimension,” Christian Yelich said. “You get that leadoff guy on who can run, cause problems. Even the threat of the stolen base, not actually doing it, is impactful.” While the return to his roots is legitimate, Turang is unlikely to sustain this level of offense. His .319 xwOBA is nearly 40 points lower than his actual wOBA of .358, indicating that he’s not making the kind of contact that typically produces the outcomes he has experienced. The likelihood of periodic slumps paired with that impending regression means his numbers will start trending down sooner rather than later. However, his elite speed and defense mean Turang merely needs to be a competent hitter to be one of the more valuable second basemen in the game. He’s definitely capable of that. “This kid, in my opinion, is on his way to a really nice career,” Murphy said. View full article
  23. Brice Turang was arguably the worst offensive player in baseball as a rookie. That’s not an exaggeration. Turang’s 60 wRC+ in 448 plate appearances last year tied with Tim Anderson for the lowest in baseball among hitters with that much playing time. Those struggles raised concerns about his long-term viability as Milwaukee’s starting second baseman. Offseason acquisitions Oliver Dunn and Christian Arroyo appeared as candidates to usurp him at the keystone. When Sal Frelick began preparing to play infield, it seemed even more plausible that Turang’s job was in jeopardy. A few months later, that feels like a distant memory. Turang is not only thriving but has also become a mainstay in an improved lineup. He entered Saturday hitting .312/.379/.440. His 136 wRC+ trails only William Contreras among qualified Brewers and ranks sixth among all qualified second basemen. The turnaround has not surprised Pat Murphy, who intentionally voiced confidence in Turang during spring training and named him the starter at the keystone as other players battled for time at third base and in the outfield. Murphy predicted Turang to take a “quantum leap.” However one wishes to characterize it, Turang is an undeniably better hitter than he was a year ago. Turang was one of the worst fastball hitters in baseball last year. According to Statcast, he finished with a -20.7 run value against heaters. He was particularly overmatched by velocity, slugging .133 against fastballs thrown at least 95 mph. What was once his kryptonite has become one of his greatest strengths. Turang has been an on-base machine against fastballs, hitting .366 with a .411 wOBA against them through the season's first six weeks. That includes a .423 average and .444 wOBA on pitches thrown 95 mph or above. He has slashed his whiff rate against fastballs from 20.5% to 9.1% Making more contact has been a theme for Turang, who has become one of baseball’s best bat-to-ball savants. His strikeout rate is down to 13.6%, and his 12% whiff rate ranks in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. He’s arrived at this point by transforming his stance, swing mechanics, and approach. Here’s an example of a fastball away overpowering Turang in 2023. turang 2023.mp4 Here’s the 2024 iteration of Turang shooting a similar pitch to the opposite field for a single. turang 2024.mp4 Turang started overhauling his setup in the box after a midseason demotion to Triple-A last year, closing off his stance and replacing his leg kick with a toe tap in two-strike counts. Everything has become even more compact and quieter this year. Turang is starting with his hands closer to his body, his bat closer to his shoulder, and minimal movement in his lower body. His swing path is shorter and more direct to the ball. Last year’s Turang was trying to do damage. This year’s version is trying to put the ball in play and reach base. The latter exemplifies Turang's offensive skill set and approach throughout his minor-league career: getting on base and impacting the game with his speed. He is back to playing the kind of game that suits his strengths as a player, and the results have followed. “I think of a vocalist,” Murphy said. “[They’re] capable of singing different types of music, but this one really works for the production we’re trying to put on. This kind of game for Brice works for us and, I think, for him.” The pressure on young players to produce in the big leagues can lead them astray from what got them to that level. It happened to Turang, whose swing grew long and increasingly out of sorts as he seemingly chased more power. Instead of shooting the ball for singles and getting on base, he was striking out and hitting soft flyouts. Murphy knew that wasn’t the real Turang. He remained confident that version would emerge with time. “You know it’s a mental game,” he said. “And it can skew you on who a player is in their first year. You can say, ‘Wow, this guy doesn’t look right,’ you know? ‘He doesn’t do this.’ You just gotta wait until it all settles down.” Things have started to settle down for Turang, who is no longer trying to lift the ball as he was last year. His average launch angle has decreased from 11.4 to 5.1 degrees. Hitting the ball closer to the ground is beneficial for Turang. He is most valuable when he gets on base, and ground balls and line drives are far more likely to achieve that goal than fly balls. Reaching base at a high clip has enabled Turang to impact games with his speed. He’s a perfect 15-for-15 on stolen base attempts, a total that ranks second in baseball. Turang’s production and style of play earned him a promotion to the leadoff spot in the final game of the Brewers’ previous series in Kansas City. In his first three games atop the lineup, he has gone 5-for-12 with four doubles, a walk, and two steals. “It just gives our offense another dimension,” Christian Yelich said. “You get that leadoff guy on who can run, cause problems. Even the threat of the stolen base, not actually doing it, is impactful.” While the return to his roots is legitimate, Turang is unlikely to sustain this level of offense. His .319 xwOBA is nearly 40 points lower than his actual wOBA of .358, indicating that he’s not making the kind of contact that typically produces the outcomes he has experienced. The likelihood of periodic slumps paired with that impending regression means his numbers will start trending down sooner rather than later. However, his elite speed and defense mean Turang merely needs to be a competent hitter to be one of the more valuable second basemen in the game. He’s definitely capable of that. “This kid, in my opinion, is on his way to a really nice career,” Murphy said.
  24. Oliver Dunn has demonstrated the power and patience that served him well in the minor leagues, but the holes in his swing have limited his results. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Oliver Dunn was a feel-good story out of Brewers camp. A post-hype prospect acquired in a minor trade with the Philadelphia Phillies in November, the 26-year-old infielder flashed the tools of a big-league power bat in Double-A last year. A strong spring training and a last-minute injury to Garrett Mitchell allowed him to crack the Opening Day roster and make his MLB debut. Dunn’s calling cards are his power and elite eye at the plate. Both traits have followed him to the big leagues, but the results have not. Dunn entered Monday with a 52.3% hard-hit rate and an 18.7% chase rate. Both of those marks rank among the best in baseball, yet Dunn has scuffled to a .233/.273/.342 line (75 wRC+). Most surprising is the low on-base percentage. Dunn’s eye made him an on-base machine in the minor leagues, but he has drawn just three walks on the young season (a 3.9% rate). How does a patient hitter stop walking, while continuing to lay off pitches outside the zone at an elite rate? It happens when opposing pitchers start aggressively attacking the zone. A hitter cannot draw walks if he isn’t seeing many non-strikes. Dunn has seen 59.5% of his total pitches in the strike zone, which would lead baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The league average is 49.8%. Pitchers feel comfortable being more aggressive against Dunn than against any other hitter, because he has yet to prove he can punish them for such an approach. Dunn has whiffed on 26.1% of his swings on pitches in the zone, which towers above the league average of 16.7%. While strikeouts are nothing new for Dunn–he struck out at a 27.5% rate in Double-A last year–his swing-and-miss tendencies have proven so extreme against major-league pitching that they’ve drowned out the effectiveness of his strengths. Dunn’s quality of contact is strong, but his 37.7% strikeout rate has left his quantity of contact too low for consistently positive results. Dunn has struggled against soft stuff, recording one hit each against breaking and offspeed pitches. While he has shown the ability to drive fastballs over the plate, he has also demonstrated a weakness against high-and-away fastballs. Pitchers have exploited that hole in Dunn’s swing the most. According to TruMedia, 35.2% of the pitches thrown to Dunn have been high (the upper third of the zone and above), compared to the league average of 27%. While his first month has not been discouraging enough to write off future success, it has indicated that Dunn could use more seasoning at Triple-A. That was the original plan before Mitchell’s injury raised a need for a left-handed power bat. With Christian Yelich growing closer to a return, it could be Dunn, not Jake Bauers, who is sent to Nashville to open a roster spot. Joey Ortiz has earned everyday reps at third base, as has Blake Perkins in center field. Yelich’s return could push Sal Frelick into Dunn’s current role as the left-handed hitting option at the hot corner. Until then, the Brewers will continue giving Dunn the chance to prove himself. He has started at third in each of the last four games, with Pat Murphy saying he wanted to “find out about him.” Regardless of his standing in the infield mix, Dunn clearly has plenty of room for growth. It may be some time before he breaks through against big-league pitching. View full article
  25. Oliver Dunn was a feel-good story out of Brewers camp. A post-hype prospect acquired in a minor trade with the Philadelphia Phillies in November, the 26-year-old infielder flashed the tools of a big-league power bat in Double-A last year. A strong spring training and a last-minute injury to Garrett Mitchell allowed him to crack the Opening Day roster and make his MLB debut. Dunn’s calling cards are his power and elite eye at the plate. Both traits have followed him to the big leagues, but the results have not. Dunn entered Monday with a 52.3% hard-hit rate and an 18.7% chase rate. Both of those marks rank among the best in baseball, yet Dunn has scuffled to a .233/.273/.342 line (75 wRC+). Most surprising is the low on-base percentage. Dunn’s eye made him an on-base machine in the minor leagues, but he has drawn just three walks on the young season (a 3.9% rate). How does a patient hitter stop walking, while continuing to lay off pitches outside the zone at an elite rate? It happens when opposing pitchers start aggressively attacking the zone. A hitter cannot draw walks if he isn’t seeing many non-strikes. Dunn has seen 59.5% of his total pitches in the strike zone, which would lead baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The league average is 49.8%. Pitchers feel comfortable being more aggressive against Dunn than against any other hitter, because he has yet to prove he can punish them for such an approach. Dunn has whiffed on 26.1% of his swings on pitches in the zone, which towers above the league average of 16.7%. While strikeouts are nothing new for Dunn–he struck out at a 27.5% rate in Double-A last year–his swing-and-miss tendencies have proven so extreme against major-league pitching that they’ve drowned out the effectiveness of his strengths. Dunn’s quality of contact is strong, but his 37.7% strikeout rate has left his quantity of contact too low for consistently positive results. Dunn has struggled against soft stuff, recording one hit each against breaking and offspeed pitches. While he has shown the ability to drive fastballs over the plate, he has also demonstrated a weakness against high-and-away fastballs. Pitchers have exploited that hole in Dunn’s swing the most. According to TruMedia, 35.2% of the pitches thrown to Dunn have been high (the upper third of the zone and above), compared to the league average of 27%. While his first month has not been discouraging enough to write off future success, it has indicated that Dunn could use more seasoning at Triple-A. That was the original plan before Mitchell’s injury raised a need for a left-handed power bat. With Christian Yelich growing closer to a return, it could be Dunn, not Jake Bauers, who is sent to Nashville to open a roster spot. Joey Ortiz has earned everyday reps at third base, as has Blake Perkins in center field. Yelich’s return could push Sal Frelick into Dunn’s current role as the left-handed hitting option at the hot corner. Until then, the Brewers will continue giving Dunn the chance to prove himself. He has started at third in each of the last four games, with Pat Murphy saying he wanted to “find out about him.” Regardless of his standing in the infield mix, Dunn clearly has plenty of room for growth. It may be some time before he breaks through against big-league pitching.
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