The home run thing.... the players who appear to be experiencing some bad luck on their home run totals vs. expected home runs (per baseball savant) are Chourio (-1.1), Contreras (-.8) Mitchell (-.7), Sanchez (-.3), Perkins and Rengifo (-.2), and Ortiz (-.1). When you look at year to year only Sanchez, Turang and Bauers are on pace to exceed their 2025 HR totals, and for Bauers he's already done it by the end of May (9 HR this year, 7 last) in about 80% of the plate appearances he had all last season already under his belt. Sanchez has matched his 2025 totals and already exceeded the 2025 plate appearances. The team's HR totals to date were certainly hurt by Chourio, Yelich and Vaughn missing time but the power hasn't returned when they did.
In short, aside from Bauers who is likely experiencing a career year, and Turang, t's essentially a team wide underperformance from HR totals projected for the offseason and it's not like the actual batted ball profile supports the notion that this is just some bad luck thus far. One would think that the HR totals will pick up with warmer weather but I guess we'll see.
Vaughn and Chourio are probably the best hope to find their power stroke. (With apologies to Yelich who I unfortunately think has regressed to his 2023 power form). Chourio's average launch angle, EV, and barrel % are all exceeding his first two seasons and his actual slg % is lower than his xslg by over .060. So, as his -1.1 HR-xHR number suggests, he appears to be getting a bit unlucky to not be doing more damage or what is still a relatively small sample (104 plate appearances). Vaughn's sample size remains even smaller than Chourio's (72 PA, 64 AB) so while there are some warning signs I don't think it's fair to conclude anything at this point. I'd like to think that Contreras will at some point reaquire his power stroke which and his slg - xslg gap is -.035
Seems clear that this team isn't going to start hitting massive amounts of home runs. I think it's fair to expect Chourio to start hitting HRs at a faster pace and probably soon. It's hard to say if Contreras will recover his power that disappeared with the fracture last year.. But it's probably also fair to expect Bauers to fall off the 27-28 HR pace he's currently on.