First paragraph is probably pretty accurate, except I think they actually could do another $50 million without that much difficulty most years. The Bally disaster didn't help and I doubt they've made all that money back from the new deal. But I tend to agree that even assuming that's correct the incentive to get to $160 million payroll is pretty low when the reality is that doesn't make them any more likely/able to land an elite bat or a #1 starter in free agency. Where it might matter is in the retention of their own players as they near free agency. (Like Contreras, for example.)
Honestly I suspect what they'll never admit is that they went into this season anticipating that they'd take a step back and that it was a transition year in the rotation while a handful of pitchers continued to develop and that as a result (and the flux in the RSN market and the TV deal) the incentive to add payroll was even lower than usual leading into the 2025 season. Unfortunately that is likely to continue this offseason with a lockout looming in 2027. Attanasio, and other small and midmarket owners, are probably likely to try to minimize big cash outlays in the next 18 months if, as seems likely, they're anticipating lost games and lost revenue at the start of the 2027 season.