1e Corbeau

I'm greedy: I want us to sign Davis, Hall and Gennett. With the kind of way-above-slot cash that's been thrown at late-round picks over the past week, as reported by the handy MLBTradeRumors twitter, it'd be great to se the Brewers keep following suit. Obviously Richardson fits that mould, as does Howell, but when I see the Pirates and Cubs going way over slot, I get a bit envious. I'm guessing Gennett is no more than a pipe dream at the moment, but the Brewers have to realistically think they can sign Hall, or they wouldn't have spent a 4th rounder on him. Perhaps not making a huge July 31st acquisition and spending a fair but not exorbitant amount in the Dominican will justify ponying up for 5 above slot bonuses http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I guess I should take solace in the fact that we've signed our 1st rounder, unlike many other teams at this point. Anyone have any idea what it would take to land Hall and, especially, Gennett? I know the Davis + Boras negotiations got real weird, so I'm not sure what anyone can suggest on that front...

Sure stats aren't predictive; but any "good eye" theory of quality is deeply flawed without presentation of critical analyses. Claiming perceptive observation without providing evidence shouldn't be expected to be a convincing argument. But back to Weeks; I don't like the idea of movng him, as I like his OBP skills and ability to take an extra base on a single or double. But, if they believe in McGehee and plan to offer arbitration to Lopez and plan to hold Hardy, middle infield is a current source of 40-man depth. Considering it's Rosenthal, I'm happy to believe it's idle, misinformed speculation to bump up pageviews.

In baseball's proprietary and sometimes-archaic arithmetic, isn't ten games over 91-71? As in, 10+81? If so, ten over isn't ir-"relevant" in my definition. Attanasio/Melvin conspiracy theories aside, this team has a huge SP problem- but remains only 4 games out. From his track record in Milwaukee, I don't think that Melvin (or Attanasion, if you're into the "meddling owner" speculation) has ever given up a top-100 prospect for a non-impact player (ie CC, not a Washburn). Despite our desparate need and considering hw terrible the team has been recently, I don't think they'll give up the farm for a non-ace.

He was recently moved to the 'pen, due to his inability to succeed as a starter, FWIW. To me, he wouldn't qualify as a "top" pitching prospect. Plus, IIRC, we (Jack Z./DM) already passed on him once in the 2007 draft for LaPorta after being heavily linked to him in pre-draft rumors. Jack Z. had a long look at him in person - and if he's sticking him in the bullpen, I'm passing.

We'd keep Green to play 2B, as we're moving Lawrie. Or, as insurance against McGehee's bat not being what some expect or Gamel's D nt being sufficient to stick at 3B. Though, I'd include Green in a blink if Toronto insisted.

Radiolab, what I consider the best show on radio these days, did an hour-long episode on stochasticity a few weeks ago. Jonah Lehrer (Proust was a Neuroscientist) touched on streaks in sports. He made some assertions that people were coins and behaved as such: athletes were going to achieve at their base rate (shooting %, average, etc.) when taken as individual events - i.e. an athlete isn't more likely to make a shot if they're "hot." The follow up 18:46 below deal with reversing this assumption: an analyst talks about simulating streaks, such as DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, with historical data/probabilities. The big news to me (not a statistician, but I enjoy math and have a few years of calculus/Diff EQ somewhere in the back of the memory) was that Trent McCotter has "proved" that individual events are not independent of the previous outcome, specifically with respect to baseball. It seems, from cursory googling, that McCotter has won SABR Jack Kavanagh awards the previous 4 years. Link to the MP3 or visit the episode page to listen to embedded flash audio.

FWIW, per BA's preseason top 100 Martinez #30 Niese #77 Escobar #19 Gamel #34 Lawrie #81 Jeffress #100 (LaPorta #27)

804: You're obviously very familiar with your team's system and I, for one, appreciate the chatter on some of these deals, especially ones that involve the Red Sox (see the JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz thread). Thanks for bringing good value with informative posts to the forum. I think you're a but guilty of over-valuing the Sox prospects, just as Brewer fans are guilty of the same for their prospects. (Personally, that's part of being a fan, in my opinion). While informative, I think you're comparisons above are a bit of a self-interested sample selection. For instance, Periard is a groundball pitcher who pitches to contact. To compare him to Tazawa, who by my read looks like a flyball strikeout pitcher, *and judge the comparison on K/9* isn't really painting an accurate picture. With Tazawa, his ability to miss bats as a not 23 year old first-year minor leaguer in AA (I'm assuming he played professionally in a different country) will be larger question going forward than Periard's ability to induce groundballs (when healthy, which he hadn't been late last season through his rehab start to 2009). I don't have time to dig through more at the moment, but in passing Odorizzi is in R+, which is one level from Pimental in A ball. And Braddock is in the pen to limit his innings. I haven't seen anything from anyone in the Brewers org or any other source to suggest that his pen role (or his piggy-backing, which is why you see non-GS games last year) is anything more than maintaining a strict control of his pitch counts after surgery. So, in my opinion, he hasn't lost any value by not being a SP prospect, since he still is one; if you want to argue the surgery (or surgeries) reduce the value, I can see that. Point being, K/9 and ERA are great, but as in all things, highlighting a few stats misses out on differences in approaches, makeup, pitchability, stuff, and all that other good stuff. Of course, I think you likely would agree, since you seem to, again, have a really firm grasp on your team's prospects.

Stat comparisons aren't perfect, but I thought this was interesting and perhaps informative when discussing a possible Hardy for Buchholz swap. From the Baseball Cube: Player Name Stat Type W L ERA G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP Manny Parra MLB 13 17 5.11 54 44 0 0 3 0 257 289 161 146 28 128 228 22 10.12 0.98 4.48 7.98 1.62 Clay Buchholz MLB 5 10 5.56 20 18 2 1 0 0 99 107 69 61 11 51 94 2 9.76 1.00 4.65 8.57 1.60 Manny Parra Minor 39 19 3.05 106 103 3 2 0 0 564 548 255 191 27 160 537 26 8.75 0.43 2.55 8.57 1.26 Clay Buchholz Minor 31 13 2.36 90 88 2 1 0 0 438 311 134 115 31 124 503 18 6.39 0.64 2.55 10.34 0.99 Pretty close. Buchholz had a fantastic start at MLB (no-no); Manny had one at AAA (perfect game). Buchholz seems to miss bats a tiny bit better, is 2 years younger and has an extra year or two of control. Both, either, or neither could reach their potential-or be AAAA pitchers with tremendous stuff. Oh: Manny is left-handed. Would you trade a top-4 WAR SS from 2007-2009(whose value is mostly in an unslumping glove - +50% WAR than Rollins, the 2nd highest fielding WAR over the same period) for a right handed, 2-year younger Parra? Again, it's a comp-but that's what stats are for.. Edit: sorry about the formatting, but I'm just happy to have copy-and-paste on the iPhone.

@bobloblaw: As a Jays fan, do you think they'd be intrigued by anyone on our 25-man not named Braun, Fielder or Gallardo? If they deal Halliday, is it rebuliding for sure? Baiscally, I'm curious if Ricciardi would be interested in Hardy - either as a 1.5 year solution at SS or who, like Halliday, could be flipped at the deadline next year or in the offseason or who would (likely) garner Type A comp picks - Hart (2.5 years of control), or Parra (4.5 more years of control)? I'm of the school that would rather hold Gamel and Escobar (especially the latter). I realize that may be wishful thinking. I would be open to include anyone else, though Braddock and Peralta would hurt. Perhaps a Lawrie, Green, who could be a 3B solution for the Jays in 2011, and Periard Canadian package (we could toss in Chris Dennis, too!) + Hardy. Would Ricciardi want to package Rios to ditch some salary? Or does he seem likely to look for greatest value on Halliday alone? Thanks for stopping by BF.net.

Arangure says Pena to the Brewers is a done deal, via Twitter. Bonus amount TBA. Link And, of course, BK beats me to it by... an hour http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

With a commitment to BC and getting noticed late in the process for the 2009 Entry Draft, the Brewers might have another chance to get the local lefty in 2012. Plus, at BC he might get to show off that .550 avg 21 XBH 5HR 37/38 SBs he put up as a Jr - all a tick better than ND-bound Charlie Markson http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I'll definitely try to listen to as much as possible and jot some notes, but with the Draft Tracker running, it might be tough - tough for a productive day, that is :-) I wish it were Rogers throwing first, as his ~2 innings would likely be done before the 11am draft start.

Rawnsley at PGX certainly seems to think Kevin James is likely moving up boards. LHP can move quickly and unpredictably, it seems, Especially ones working 90-92 with a 77 nice curve and a good feel for an 81 change. Chad and Kevin James Shine at Pre-Draft Showcase Effertz is intriguing and certainly has the power arm. What's he throwing now? He's a "max effort" guy, though, right?

The Yankee Hype Machine has clandestinely penetrated the collective BF.net rhetoric? Just can't stop talking Kennedy! (You know those Yankee fans are overly fascinated with Tim Dillard; pages upon pages of trading Cano straight up for him...)

Agreed. box-shadow will rock... It's too bad everyone doesn't leave IE for chrome or safari (while I am hypocritically viewing this is FF3...)

I think it's a great idea to have featured bloggers. I also think a site-hosted blogging tool that's available to everyone would be a great way to promote more member ownership in the community, create content and keep more hits on the bf.net servers. I don't think there's anything wrong with segregating the "featured" from the "member" blogs, necessarily. You could also build in (or find some open source software) a voting/recommend function for "member" blogs to have a top 3-8 blogs, as voted by peers. Thanks for including everyone in this discussion.

A wiki would seem to be good for collecting info on visiting other stadiums, Major or Minor, etc., IMO. In theory, that type of system could also serve as "homepages" or "clubhouses" for affiliates. I'm envisioning this as a way of moving things like the transactions threads off Yuku. It seems having a more condensed list of transactions could be useful for members. The thread format does allow commenting on transactions, but, again, having a single list of player movement rather than a list over multiple posts/pages could be useful. Perhaps adding a member blogging feature would be a good way to get folks to the main site and to generate more content. I'm not sure what kind of platform you're looking at, but something like drupal could make this easy, especially if you can carry over Yuku accounts. (I can't remember if everyone still had a BF.net account, too...) I think forum discussion and blogging+comments are different enough not to be duplicitous. Photo sharing/posting would be great (and video, too). Some RSS feeds from other sports sites, making BF.net homepage more of a "one-stop shop" for Brewer info. Perhaps an events/calendar, where members can say they're attending a game, to facilitate some in-person social capital formation. :-) I really like the year-by-year history idea, too... Keep up the great work, Brian and everyone else that puts their love and sweat and time into keeping BF great.

For those who happen to be listening to the Sounds tonight, is Gameday right in showing Gamel with a massive oppo-jack? Or is it MiLB Gameday being MiLB Gameday?

So far, so good with Rogers. Three sets of numbers have me particularly happy with his outing thus far: 3 IP, 5:2 G:F, 80 degrees. IIRC, Mark's always tended to fly balls, so any chance at being more effective with a modified arsenal or repertoire is a good step for him and, subsequently, the Brewers.

Where did you read this? I had no idea that Escobar was getting time anywhere but at SS. I'd be interested in knowing the circumstances under which he was getting work at 2B. Winter ball? Instructs? Pre-game?

I'm still not sure how likely it was that a team would've taken Rogers, but all X's points above make enough sense to use a 40 man spot on him. There has been a lot of talk about physical talent, but what hasn't been mentioned is Roger's makeup. From all things I've read/heard, he appears to be very mature and have a great work ethic and a trust in the organization. Those characteristics - coupled with the + FB/Slider combo - would make him more likely to be taken. You wouldn't have to worry as much about babysitting him or how he might influence the rest of your locker room. That would seem to figure into any Rule V situation, IMO

Only problem is who plays CF if something would happen to Cameron - or even in a double-switch. I'd rather have Gwynn's defense than Hart's. (I'd much rather have Kapler, but that isn't likely to happen.) The related question is who is your PR? Part of me wants Escobar, as he just seems so darn fast (and a good baserunner). But, TGJ is likely a more disciplined baserunner, though that's completely based on how long he's been around - not necessarily anything I've seen. They (Escobar/TGJ) can both probably score from 1B on an XBH. And, with the likelihood of 6 IFs already (Fielder, Weeks, Durham, Hardy, Hall, Counsell) and Branyan seemingly tweaking that injury again on Friday, I'm leaning towards TGJ as a 4th OF. 6 IF + 4 OF + 2 C + 13 P (4 SPs/9 RPs, with that distinction becoming more nebulous with Gallardo/McCLung/Parra/even Suppan) He can lay down a bunt better than Escobar, too, probably, though he's failed at times at that. All bets are off if they can sneak Lamb. MLB.com has him on the 40-man... same as Coffey...

I agree that the odds would be very low to lose Rogers through the Rule V. But, can't teams take a player in the Rule V, ad him to their 25-man, then realize he's injured and needs time on the 60-day DL (and possibly minor league rehab assignments)? They'd have to pay him to be on the 40-man and DL, but wouldn't have to waste a 25-man spot on him. ...After a little research, it looks like a team could kind of do this: (What would we do without the GFDL? Thanks, collaboration!) But, yeah, Cain, Salome, Aguilar, Gamel and Periard make lots of sense. Periard and Aguilar are furthest, but guys who throw low- to mid-90s with sink and who can touch triple digits can be prime candidates for the back end of a pen on a lower-tier team. Welch being a lefty could be a smart protect, too. I think Katin might be ready to hit 250/450, if that gets you excited as a 25th man that might become a 4th OF with pop. Obviously, it'll be interesting to see how many spots the Brewers will have to work with on the 40-man.

I agree that the odds would be very low to lose Rogers through the Rule V. But, can't teams take a player in the Rule V, ad him to their 25-man, then realize he's injured and needs time on the 60-day DL (and possibly minor league rehab assignments)? They'd have to pay him to be on the 40-man and DL, but wouldn't have to waste a 25-man spot on him. ...After a little research, it looks like a team could kind of do this: (What would we do without the GFDL? Thanks, collaboration!) But, yeah, Cain, Salome, Aguilar, Gamel and Periard make lots of sense. Periard and Aguilar are furthest, but guys who throw low- to mid-90s with sink and who can touch triple digits can be prime candidates for the back end of a pen on a lower-tier team. Welch being a lefty could be a smart protect, too. I think Katin might be ready to hit 250/450, if that gets you excited as a 25th man that might become a 4th OF with pop. Obviously, it'll be interesting to see how many spots the Brewers will have to work with on the 40-man.