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And That

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Everything posted by And That

  1. And That
    I wouldn't consider Smith to be a "throw in" in any deal. Thornburg or Blazek, maybe, but Smith has quite a bit of value on his own. His inclusion would have to substantially improve the return.
  2. And That
    Except that given 55 players are generally riskier in terms of final outcome, 55s have a better shot at being 0's than 45s. And really until I see some data that states the % of players rated 55 by BA in the handbook that actually became 55 players in MLB, or average WAR produced per year by all 55 players vs players of other ratings, I can't see much support for what the best mix of potential to risk in the minor leagues is. Clearly you need a bunch of talented players, but if they all have a bunch of risk attached, that intuitively says to me that isn't the best way to build a stream of talent to the big leagues.
  3. And That
    Correct. I'd say many people's idea of tanking would be something closer to fielding an noncompetitive team. The 2016 Brewers will be competitive, albeit not competitive enough to be in playoff contention. It's not like they're sending a team of Andy Wilkinsses out there.
  4. And That
    Houle, Leal, Sibrian, and Atencio all have shots to be that guy. They're all inexperienced, so we'll know a lot more after this season. Meanwhile, Pina, Garcia, or Pinto could hold down the fort, albeit without an overwhelming amount of probable extra value.
  5. And That
    I don't think 45 equates to 0 WAR, but I don't have the book in front of me so I might be wrong. 45 players could also turn out to be 50 or 55 players... there's room for up as well as room for down. But that's kind of semantics anyway - I'm not arguing for 55/Extremes or 45/Mediums. Instead, what is the best mix of players in terms of having one group of players whose eventual contributions range all over the map (Extremes) and having other groups whose eventual contributions are better known, but likely without the high end range? If you have all Extreme risk guys, there's going to be a pretty high headache factor as you see multiple players at multiple positions flame out. Even if some do make it, it's really hard to plan that way. On the other hand, if you are pretty sure what you have but none of the players are likely to make a huge impact, that's a problem too. And that's what I'm trying to get at regarding weighting the player grades by the risks. What teams have the best mix going by grade and risk put together? I do doubt that even BA has done the number crunching to measure the outcomes for different prospect grades and risk factors, so anything any of us would come up with would have a huge amount of guesswork involved.
  6. And That
    It would be interesting to weight the grades by the risk in some fashion, in order to provide an adjusted total for each team. Offhand I don't know exactly how the weighting should work, though something along with the lines of a multiplier of 1 for Safe, .9 for Low, .8 for Medium, .7 for High and .6 for Extreme might make sense. It would be helpful to know at what rate players with Extreme risk ultimately ended up meeting their grades, as opposed to the rate for players with Low risk, for example. I guess what I'm trying to get at is, is it better to have more 55 grade/Extreme risk players, or more 45/Medium players?
  7. And That
    Thanks for that post, Eye Black - great insight. Further proof that ranking the Brewers' farm system in the lowest third of teams has little basis in reality. Also, completely jealous that my book hasn't arrived yet.
  8. And That
    Which has been the Rockies' motto for most of their existence.
  9. And That
    People are free to hope what they want to hope. The Brewers could have been in a considerably better position in the 2016 draft had they lost 2 more games, or 5 more games, or 6 more games.
  10. And That
    Stearns indicated that they're going to keep Diaz at SS for now, and assuming he starts off in Wisconsin, that indicates that either Gatewood or Lara will be moved off of shortstop. I doubt Lara breaks camp in full season ball anyway so there is probably no reason to move him now, but if Gatewood, Diaz, and Neuhaus are all on the same team, Diaz plays short, Gatewood is at third, and Neuhaus stays at second.
  11. And That
    I don't get the feeling that it would be the Brewers' MO to send him directly to Brevard, but I guess with a huge spring it's possible. There are a lot of moving parts in the middle/left side of the infield in and around A ball. In addition to Isan Diaz, depends how things shake out with Neuhaus, Gatewood, Lara, Cuas, Iskendarian, Allemand, Ortega, Matos, Oquendo, Mallen, Aviles, McFarland, Betancourt, Brennan, and DeMuth (if I'm not forgetting anyone else). Plus Brandon Diaz if they move him back to second base. BTW, I've heard Diaz' first name said a few different ways by talking heads. If I can trust my 3 semesters of college Spanish, his first name is pronounced "ee-sahn." Like Nissan, without the N.
  12. And That
    I'm trying to avoid studying, so here we go: 1. Arcia 2. Lucroy 3. Lopez 4. Davis 5. Smith 6. Braun 7. Nelson 8. Santana 9. Peralta 10. Anderson
  13. And That
    Anderson was brought in as a depth piece, ostensibly to push either Davies or Jungmann back down to AAA. I don't get the "nothing short of a mystery" line - it appears the author was prioritizing turn of phrase over actual baseball logic.
  14. And That
    Competition for the rotation is great, and control over a solid back-end guy is an added bonus. Anderson and Wagner may end up being a wash in the long run, but Anderson has a lot more value right now. Picking up Diaz for Segura is unbelievable.
  15. And That
    And while the move itself is almost certainly not directly related to a potential trade of Braun or Davis, I'd guess it nudges the odds of one of them being traded up a little bit. The Brewers have moved assets for Liriano and Broxton (and Santana before Stearns got here), so you'd think they wouldn't be trading assets away if the players they are getting back stand a decent risk of getting lost shortly thereafter.
  16. And That
    Liriano is basically a Rule 5 pick for the Brewers. If he doesn't make the 25-man roster, there is a slim to none chance he makes it through waivers unless he's just atrocious in spring games. I'd still like the Brewers to claim/trade for Ceciliani from the Mets.
  17. And That
    Weisenburger is on the latest list of NRIs for Brewers camp.
  18. And That
    Since a 40-man spot has to be cleared, is this finally it for Shane Peterson? As for who/what the Brewers are giving up... maybe the Padres really like Matt Garza for some reason?
  19. And That
    Shane Peterson should absolutely be DFA'd in favor of Ceciliani.
  20. And That
    If memory serves, Shaffer isn't any great shakes defensively at third. Don't know if he could stick there long term or not.
  21. And That
    They were, allegedly, in on Cespedes with a 5-year offer even after signing Davis. If that's true, it seems that would at least have the capacity to add Braun.
  22. And That
    Ranking the Brewers at #21 in minor league system quality is just about the equivalent of saying Josh Hader is the Brewers' 21st best prospect. He's not #1, probably not top 5, maybe even not top 10, but #21 is completely missing the mark.
  23. And That
    I do not think that phrase means what you think it means.
  24. And That
    The Brewers have one of the ten worst systems in baseball? That's a joke.
  25. And That
    We actually tried doing this very thing with DoU about five-six years ago after I wrote some stuff for them, but it never got legs. There was even a Brewefan wiki idea tossed around. Which again, obviously did not happen. That said, we are still trying to figure out a way to push Brewerfan towards its next incarnation. I spoke with Brian about an idea this past Friday, and we'll see where it goes. I think it is pretty safe to say that there needs to be some sort of revamp in order to keep the site viable in the long term. If and when those decisions are made, we'll pass them on. Please feel free to post any ideas anyone may have about what they want to see Brewerfan look like and/or how to add additional value to being a Brewer fan. The goal is to keep the site as simple and maintenance free as possible, but we're open to anything. Thank you for the kind words and for coming back for 15 years - it has been a trip.
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