And That

Incorrect. There is a plausible chance that he will be, especially considering what $31 mil will buy you in seven years. I wouldn't say likely, but saying "of course he won't" is easy when you don't have to back it up for seven years. Looks like he has an opt-out after three years, so it might be another team's worry anyway.

Lucroy probably makes more sense for a team without an astronomical payroll. A lot of his value is in his extremely modest salary over the next two years.

Big price tag. I'm here all night. He definitely has been worth $31 mil a year over the past six seasons, but will he be worth it when he's 36 or 37? Who knows.

Diaz was in BP's top 100 two years ago, I think.

I sincerely doubt that the Brewers use KATOH whatsoever in their statistical analysis. That's not to say they don't use some models that may be similar - players who are young for their league that perform well if not spectacularly - but I think it's mostly a coincidence that Betancourt and Flores are where they are on that list. Now if they trade for a few more relatively obscure guys on that list, you might be on to something. Stearns has said time and again that he values analytics and scouting more or less evenly. Until there is significant evidence of a weight toward one or the other, I'll keep my mind open to the process, even if the results are KATOH-esque.

1) As others have mentioned, if the Brewers are going to extract any value from Garza this year, he's got to be in the rotation. If he's mediocre this year, maybe it's something you revisit next year... 2)...except that I don't know if the Brewers want to deal with the fallout from informing Garza that he's going to the bullpen. I imagine his side of that conversation would make Andrew Dice Clay blush.

I don't think it's wise to package them just to get rid of Garza's salary. Lind has value that would net good talent in return. Milwaukee's payroll is low enough right now (though that could of course change) that I don't think they'd trade off Lind's prospect value for the savings on Garza's salary.

If the Orioles swing and miss on Chris Davis, still wonder if they'd have interest in Braun. Apart from a few guys they apparently won't trade (Machado, Schoop, Gausman, Givens) and a few injury concerns (Harvey, Bundy), they don't have much in the terms of young talent, but they are short on outfielders and could at least theoretically afford most of Braun's contract if they don't get Davis.

Correct, and many of the best relievers in baseball were starters for a significant portion of their career. For some context, Milwaukee's bullpen had the ninth best ERA in baseball last year, by all accounts a pretty good unit. Here is the list of guys who pitched at least 10 relief innings for the Brewers last year: Francisco Rodriguez: Starter through advanced-A ball Will Smith: Starter into MLB Jeremy Jeffress: Starter into AAA Corey Knebel: Reliever in college when drafted Neil Cotts: Starter into AAA Michael Blazek: Starter into AAA Jonathan Broxton: Starter into AA David Goforth: Starter into AA Tyler Thornburg: Starter into MLB Cesar Jimenez: Starter into MLB Tyler Cravy: Starter into MLB So except for Knebel who was already a reliever for the Longhorns when he was drafted by Detroit, literally everyone of consequence in the Brewers' bullpen had significant starting experience. Most of them into the high minors and the big leagues. Heck, K-Rod had 42 starts in the minor leagues before turning 20. And among guys likely to be in the bullpen at some point next year, Junior Guerra, Ariel Pena, Justin Barnes, Damien Magnifico, and Mike Strong all have quite a bit of starting experience as well. It's backwards logic to say, well he may or may not make it as a starter, so the heck with it, let's make him a reliever in A ball. The list of successful big league relievers who were converted from a starter into a reliever as a pro, before they hit advanced-A, is a very short one. Even if you don't think the guy is going to end up as a starter, like Barnes and Magnifico almost assuredly were not, it is still worthwhile to give them lots of innings to work on what they have, and maybe once in awhile one of the guys you had pegged as a reliever actually does work out as a starter, and you've created a bunch of value for yourself. And if they do turn out to be a reliever, you usually do it after a few years in AA or AAA. Sometimes longer.

They only way they'd be interested as their roster is currently constructed, is if they fail to sign Park. Park and Mauer are both limited to 1B/DH. Unless they want to platoon Park or try him in the OF, but I think that's unlikely at this point.

That's true of virtually any pitcher. He did have his shoulder fatigue issue in college, but if you're going to say "nope, reliever" at the first sign injury to any pitcher, you're short-circuiting your chances of competing down the road. If there is a legitimate scouting opinion as to why he can't be a starter, I'm open to that, but the consensus I've seen is that he projects as a guy that at least has a chance to start at the highest level, and that people are generally unconcerned about the shoulder thing. You leave guys like Ponce in as starters until it is clear he wouldn't cut it in Milwaukee's rotation. That's why guys like Goforth, Magnifico, and Barnes were kept as starters for so long even though it was almost assured that they projected as relievers - it doesn't hurt to see if there's something there. In Ponce's case, it is readily apparent there is something there.

BA's take on the Rule 5 draft: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-rule-5-draft-preview-names-remember/ They add two more names to the corner infielder discussion: FWIW, of the 46 players listed as potential Rule 5 prospects, zero were Brewers.

See my post above, linking to a Mike Petriello piece on MLB.com. Yes - Kershaw would definitely be exempt. The basic idea is to remove starters once they start dropping off in effectiveness, usually the third time through the order. Some pitchers, such Kershaw or Grienke or Arrieta, are obviously going to generally be more effective the third time through the order than the guy out of the bullpen you replace him with. The idea isn't just to replace pitchers for replacement sake, it's to maximize the value of all the pitchers on the roster by removing them at their most likely points of failure.

#3-#5ish starters may lose out a bit, but all innings will still need to be covered and I'm guessing durable relievers who could pitch 2-3 innings 2-3 times per week could stand to make a pretty decent raise. And #1-#2 type starters may become even more valued. So would the rate of pay per nine innings decrease under the model discussed above? Maybe, maybe not, but I don't think it would deviate significantly from the rate of inflation salaries are currently on.

There has been labor peace in MLB for 20 years, but there is no guarantee of that continuing. The CBA is up next year. If teams start short-circuiting the ability of players to earn money, that is absolutely an issue the union would bring to the bargaining table.

I think one way to counteract the union's qualms over the decreasing reliance on starting pitchers would be to expand MLB rosters by 2 or 3 spots, and/or to have a taxi squad of some sort. IIRC, Doug Melvin has been a proponent of the taxi squad idea.

The Rays kind of did this in 2015. Best starting rotation ERA in the AL. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/157383440/starting-pitchers-should-throw-fewer-innings

On the MLB.com list, Johnson was removed, Ponce received a huge bump to #29, and Flores was added at #30.

Agreed on Perdomo, but it's such a big jump from A-ball. I like Guzman and Tocci as well, but same deal. If you think Goeddel can play third, you have to consider him. As an OF, I still like the bat, maybe not enough to take a chance on him though. Del Pozo has a pretty nice built-in excuse to be shut down midseason. For a guy like Guduan, you have to rely on what your scouts/coaches think as far as with his command issues, is there any possible way that he could make it through an MLB season without being a complete liability? Even on a team that's not going anywhere in 2016, you can't keep a guy that's going to walk every other batter. Guduan is an Astros prospect, and not to belabor the connection between Astros prospects and Stearns, but Stearns might be in a great position to be able to make that determination.

Arcia wasn't going to be the Brewers' opening day shortstop in 2016 regardless of who they traded, or who they will trade, for. They've said a number of times he still has things he needs to work on in the minors.

Or so the MLB app tells me. It brings the 40-man roster to 38. Discussion over the past few months on the topic is on the minor league forum. Mildly surprised that Victor Roache and/or Jorge Ortega were not added to the roster, though it does keep a spot (actually two) open for an upgrade in the Rule 5 draft next month.

Maybe he feels players who are out of options are a market inefficiency.

Flores is currently #25 on the Mariners' MLB Pipeline top 30. Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 35 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45 Flores doesn't have a carrying tool but he does a little bit of everything except hit for power, so he could carve out a big league niche as a fourth outfielder. Signed out of Venezuela for $775,000 in 2008, he was on track to make his big league debut last season before a severe left ankle injury all but ended his season in June. He reached New York for the first time this May, then went to the Mariners two months later with Jose Ramirez in a trade for Dustin Ackley. Flores' best attributes are his feel for hitting and ability to manage the strike zone. He sprays line drives to all fields but doesn't have enough strength or power to profile as a regular on an outfielder corner. In an encouraging sign, he posted his highest full-season slugging percentage (.443) last year. With his average speed and arm strength, Flores is capable of manning all three outfield positions. He has seen the majority of his action in left field, and he also has gotten some time at first base. I wonder if they're going to give him a shot to play CF?

Apparently if Stearns makes a trade, it has to involve a middle infielder.

Stearns is doing his best Preller. Guns a' blazing.