Matt Breen

Position player-wise, I think we are done making moves. Sardinas or Gomez will be the back up middle IF (lean Gomez since he is out of options and more experience), Rogers or Jimenez will back up 3B/1B (lean Jimenez since he is a natural 3B and out of options), and Schafer or Peterson will be the 5th OF (lean Schafer for his defensive skills). Pitching-wise, I wouldn't be surprised to see another reliever added, and a veteran arm to go to AAA for depth. But you can always wait out these last couple of moves and see how things go in spring training.

40 man roster spots are still pretty valuable and the Brewers will have to make some tough choices the next couple of years. It is more giving Richardson his opportunity to show something versus rushing him. Move up or move out. Next year at AA we'll likely have Reed, Taylor and Roche. I'd hate for Richardson (or any of the other guys) to be a part timer. The guy needs repetitions. Also, D'Vo, if he can step up his game next year, would be primed to help the big league team in 2016. Next year's backup outfielders are likely Parra and Schafer (or perhaps Peterson). In 2016, Parra will (likely) be gone. Schafer (potentially) starts becoming arbitration eligible - and more expensive (and if he plays badly in 2015, he probably won't be around). D'Vo could be a candidate to make the team as a reserve OF, especially with his ability to play CF (Wren is another guy who could fill this need). I really just think opportunity is the best thing for D'Vo at this point. If it's AA, fine. The team has to make that call. D'Vo's only had 512 ABs over the last three years. Playing everyday is what he needs.

More players means more specialization. More ROOGYs, more LOOGYs, more platoons, more pinch hitters. I'm not sure if that would mean more offense - or less. Does an extra arm in the pen trump an extra bat in the dugout? Or vice versa? Will more guys mean more changes during innings - meaning longer games? The best way I can think of is to look at how games are played in September - when rosters expand. Does scoring go up then? Or down? No change? To increase offense you might have to limit the number of pitchers on a roster.

The rules say that a pitch is a strike "if any part of the ball passes through any part of the strike zone." 5-10 years ago, I think umpires called the low strike if most or all of the ball traveled through the strike zone. Today, I think the umpires are actually calling the strikes more correctly (at least on the sides and the bottom of the zone). Thus when the top of the ball passes through the bottom of the strike zone, it's a strike - even if most of the ball comes in below the knee. I apologize for not having a link to this, but I believe I read that ever since the electronic scoring has been implemented umpires have gotten a higher percentage of 'correct' scores with each successive year with regard to calling balls and strikes. The umps, wanting better scores, have adjusted accordingly as the scores matter to their job performance rating. Again, sorry I don't have documentation for this. From a visual perspective, I certainly think the strike zone has dropped. And I think it's affected how the game is played. I believe I used Mark Reynolds as an example earlier this year. I think the drop in the strike zone really affected him over the years. He's got a longer swing. As the zone has increased, he's gotten worse because he needs to protect a greater area. If he didn't have to worry about that 3-inch zone at the bottom of the plate, he would have less plate to cover, not have to commit to swinging as early, and could sit more on a pitch he likes. Just a theory.

I'd like to see him at Wisconsin as well. He seems to have a more mature approach at the plate, so let's be a bit aggressive with him. And as people noted, he seems like a level headed kid who will benefit from the added responsibility and advanced play. One minor issue with moving Harrison to Wisconsin is Brandon Diaz is probably slated to be the CF. I suppose you could have the two split time between CF and RF so they both can play there. I just like the idea of Harrison playing the premium spot as much as possible. Repetitions (at bat and in the field) are important for him as he focuses on baseball for the first time in his life.

Where do folks think Harrison will start the year? Do you jump him straight to A ball at Wisconsin? Or ease him into things at Helena?

I hope the team just lets D'Vo go to AAA and start everyday. He will be 27 next year, so it's time to find out what the young man can do.

What the umpires define as a strike has grown over the past five years or so. Hardball Times has a nice graph (one for lefties and one for righties). The box area in the graphs are for reference only. They don't represent what should be the strike zone: http://www.hardballtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/LHH-2009-2014-w-title.png http://www.hardballtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/RHH-2009-2014-w-title.png On the whole, the strike zone has grown by 39 square inches since 2008, getting bigger each year. http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-expansion-is-out-of-control/ As you can see in the above images, the major growth is at the bottom of the strike zone. The sides of the strike zone have actually contracted a little (particularly against left handed hitters). But the bottom has grown a full three inches at the bottom - roughly the size of a baseball. The large strike zone forces hitters to have to protect a larger area. This probably means more guessing on the part of the hitter, more swinging at borderline pitchers. Guys with slower bat speed are likely hurt most. They have to commit earlier to swinging than in the past.

I don't think anyone since Weeks/Braun/Fielder time frame has shown such promise. I'm still surprised he fell so low in the draft. The guy doesn't look 220 pounds. He looks leaner than that. Sort of like Carlos Gomez - he's a lot bigger than you imagine.

Ownership expects results, and if we are struggling early, I could easily see RRR get the axe in an effort to save the season. I would expect the team to have to falter pretty badly for this to happen. If we are anywhere close to .500, Roenicke will be safe. I think the team's braintrust made it very clear that they expect this club to be respectable. The fact that they canned the hitting coach, plus made a very public 'review' of Roenicke after last season, means changes will be made if things go south.

ESPN has an article about how MLB is looking at shrinking the strike zone in 2016. This would be to counter the lower scoring in the game. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12320861/major-league-baseball-shrink-strike-zone-2016-report-says A lot of people are saying that the strike zone has expanded since the PITCHf/x system that was implemented a few years back. While its made umpires more consistent, it's essentially lowered the strike zone a few inches. Here's an in depth look at the shrinking strike zone from Grantland: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-larger-strike-zone-declining-offense/ Personally, I like the idea of raising the strike zone a bit.

Peter Gammons for years has been a big hype monster for Red Sox prospects. But that was his turf, so of course you expect it.

I'll bite and give them Coulter or Arcia...if we get Dom Brown as well and they take Parra. Not a Dom Brown fan. One good year, everything else is bad. Can't hit lefties well, so he might need to be platooned. And his defense is awful. Perhaps he'd be decent at 1B. The guys obviously has potential, but it doesn't seem to have translated to the big leagues. Interesting player, but he just doesn't seem like he's going to put it together.

My biggest worry is that Melvin panics if there's an injury during camp or Broxton looks ineffective early on, and gives up a top prospect for Papelbon. Don't blink, no matter what. I know our prospects aren't the greatest in the world, but I really believe we need as many decent prospects as possible in the coming years.

Scooter (#7) and Fiers (#9) were both ranked in Milwaukee's top 10 by John Sickels. Baseball America had Scooter as high as #5. I don't think Davis ever ranked in the top 10 by anyone. Lucroy was Sickel's #4 Brewer prospect in 2010, while BA had him at #5 that year. In some ways all of these guys suffered in their rankings because they never got the chance to be ranked after a full (or even mostly full) season at AAA. Scooter got his best ranking after his AA season - then the next year he went to AAA, and then Milwaukee in the same season, burning his eligibility. Lucroy did the same thing. He barely played at AAA. Fiers got 64 innings at AAA before he got his #9 ranking, while Davis got in just 32 games at AAA the season before he burned his rookie eligibility (he was also hurt that year too). Also, with regard to Fiers and Davis, there's age as a factor. Both are older players. Fiers reached AAA at 26. Davis reached AAA at 24. Evaluators like youth. They look very much at age vs competition level. In MLB.com's Top 100 list this year, only one player is 25, and two are 24. The rest are all younger. Scouts expect older players to do well, so their performances are often discounted to some degree. There are many things that go into ranking a prospect by people and publications. In the case of these four players - circumstance plays a role. These guys didn't get a chance to prove themselves at AAA (at least for very long). We might lament that the evaluators aren't recognizing our guys, but sometimes the way they have been promoted affects how they are perceived prior to reaching the big leagues. Here's some of the rankings: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/4/1233988/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/17/2496403/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2012 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/6/3842642/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2013 http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612610.html http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269178.html

Jonathan Mayo listed Coulter is his #3 sleeper prospect (essentially it was five guys he really liked that didn't make MLB's Top 100 list). http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/108852054/jonathan-mayo-mets-pitcher-gabriel-ynoa-no-1-on-list-of-top-five-sleeper-prospects

Actually the 5 year deal offered to CC would have worked out well enough. I would have been done two years ago, just before the decline. Fielder would have been bad, but at least not as bad as the actual contract. Sabathia's contract is (somewhat) unique in that he was entering his prime (age 28) when he became a FA. The Yankees, if they had been smart, would have let him walk when he had his opt-out option after year four (of course, hindsight is 20-20). Still, the guy was entering his age 32 season and had a ton of miles on his arm. But this being the Yankees, they rolled the dice with a 5-year/$120 millionish extension.

Padres have a nice staff, but they are still going to trot out an offensive black hole at SS, a 2B who hit .210 last year, a 3B who, beyond three months in 2012, has sucked horribly at the plate, a 1B who's OPS has declined three years running (down to .682 last year), and Wil Myers in CF. At least Kemp won't be in CF. They are better than last year, but it looks like a really flawed club. I guess, like the Brewrers, if lots goes right for them, they'll contend. But that's a lot of variables they are counting on.

I'll try, but I'm just guessing on what club each person is assigned to: AAA Pitcher: Jungmann (starter) and Knebel (reliever) Hitter: Wren or Rogers - Both options are rather sad as your 'top' hitting prospect at AAA. Both can potentially contribute at the major league level, but they appear to be strictly role players. AA Pitcher: Lopez and Wagner Hitter: Arcia and Taylor A+ Pitcher: Taylor Williams or Wang (although either could end up at AA) Hitter: Coulter A- Pitcher: Devin Williams Hitter: Brandon Diaz, Tucker Neuhaus or Sthervin Matos Rookie Helana Pitcher: Medeiros Hitter: Harrison (although I wonder if Milwaukee is aggressive and moves Harrison to A ball) Rookie Maryvale and DSL teams Pitcher: Diplan Hitter: Lara

We'll plan on doing a new Top 25 in mid-March.

Big contracts for people past 30 rarely work out, especially in the post-PED era. Doesn't mean they can't, but for the most part, they are usually poor investments. A basic franchise model should be to plan on a player being with the team 5-6 years (through the arby years). The player is then traded before reaching free agency (replenishing your young, cheap player pool) or allowed to leave via free agency (hopefully with a draft pick compensation attached). Some players, especially your better guys, you can try and lock up earlier and buy out a year or two of free agency (like what we did with Lucroy and Gomez). As hard as it is sometimes, you're usually better off letting a player in the 30+ age group leave than give them a 5+ year contract. It should be noted that every player and situation is different. The model can (and should) be a guideline - not a hard and fast rule that is never broken. But by adhering to the rule (for the most part), it allows you to bend the rules when you really need to.

The one thing we've assumed is that the signing bonus for Moncada is in the $30-40 million. But those numbers are just speculation. Maybe that's the guy's agent just pumping up his client, or a couple of front office guys making a terrible guess. People were throwing out the $40 million number before Moncada even worked out with teams. In the end, maybe the number is $20 million. Of course, it only takes one team to spend $30 or $40 million on the guy (and a roughly equal amount in penalties). But after all is said and done, maybe the number isn't as high as has been suggested. Moncada would have a good chance to be the top pick if he was in the amateur draft. Adding a guy like that to our system would be pretty awesome. I honestly don't think it will happen, but it's nice the club is even looking the guy.

One very important thing about signing Moncada is that the 100% penalty has to be paid immediately. So a team could potentially sign him to a $40 million deal, and spread the signing money out over several years, but the penalty money has to be paid immediately. Somehow, I doubt the Crew has $30-40 million just sitting around waiting to hand over to MLB. Last year we tried to sign Abreu, but that money would have been spread out over many years. This is a huge financial commitment right now. That just sounds totally out of the realm of possibilities for this club.

A 9 man bullpen? That leaves only 3 bench spots which would be terrible. No one says you have a nine man bullpen. You simply have nine players who could fit into the pen. With the uncertain status of guys coming off injury (Henderson and Thornburg), plus the chance someone else gets injured, plus the option to move Thornburg back to starter, there isn't much of a worry that you'll have too many arms.

Well that turned out badly for Detroit. V-Mart tore his medial meniscus. He tore his ACL in 2012 and missed the entire year. The medial meniscus tear isn't as series. It certainly puts opening day in jeopardy, but after that, who knows. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12284767/victor-martinez-detroit-tigers-torn-medial-meniscus