Matt Breen

[sarcasm]But what if we simply drafted all three of those guys with our 5th, 6th, and 7th round picks? Then we gained additional 1st-4th round picks![/sarcasm] No one knows how it would roll out if we didn't trade up. Certainly not us arm-chair GMs (as fun as it is). Saying someone is a reach is a complete guess because there are only 32 people actually picking (for real)... and even they will miss at times. Remember that Tony Mandarich wasn't a reach... Best we can do is see how the players picked play out and see if they did it right a few years down the road. As I said, saying someone is a reach or not is not a complete guess. It's an educated guess based on information available. Again, the context of reach as I'm talking about is the spot they were taken as of draft day - not down the road. I say that pretty clearly. If Dillon goes on to be an all pro, yet it is demonstrated that no one would have picked him before us in the 3rd round (not that we can ever prove or disprove that) - it still means it was a reach - even if he's great. And that's because we could have used our draft capital more wisely. It's not about whether he was a 'good' or 'bad' pick. And yes, I remember Tony Mandarich.

What?I I'm not trying to say anything like this. That's impossible for us (probably anyone) - so why would I be so stupid as to assume it. The acknowledgement is that we go on the information we have available. That's all. Some people are comfortable with that to make an assessment, some aren't. Acknowledging the caveats of the situation just seems like an honest thing to do.

Again, you are basically making the argument that no team should trade up for a specific player. No I'm not. I've NEVER said that. NEVER. If the player you want has value at a spot then make the move. Up or down. Again, if the player has value at that slot - whatever it is - then you do it. Especially as you factor in positional need, system fit, that sort of thing.

Again I'll ask, as I have yet to receive a response on this- how has their philosophy proven unsuccessful to this point? It seems that the vast majority of complaints are because people personally disagree with the strategy, mainly because they take guys that the fans don't have on their own radars, despite the fact that it has worked thus far. The players they've targeted have become exceptional players. You may call it lack of discipline, I call it proper identification of talented players. After all, if you weren't targeting a specific player, why would anyone trade up in the draft? Identifying the players your want - and then paying a premium to get them - can be - but not always is - a reach. Picking a guy in the 2nd (Dillon) you very well could have gotten in the 3rd, or picking a guy in the 3rd (Deguara) that you very well could have gotten in the 4th (assuming we actually had a 4th) - are examples of what I felt were reaches. Both guys may be great - but the point is the team likely overpaid for them at the time. Yes, you like the guy. Yes, you want them. But there's a good chance you spent extra capital to get them. Let's say we never had to move up to acquire Love - and thus saved our 4th round pick. What if we had done this: 1st - Love or whomever 2nd - ? 3rd - Dillon 4th - Deguara We just added a 2nd round pick by not reaching. Of course, maybe someone picks those guys ahead of us. So be it. Then you get other players. By not fixating on a specific player, you gain and additional, quality asset. I have to stress, however, that making 'reach' picks isn't the worst thing in the world. I'm not saying this happens with every player and the team is failing because of it. And there are often good reasons. It's just an observation that some people have made. And let's remember, this is in context of the time of the draft. The criteria for rating a draft the day it's done, and then again in five years, is very different. For a draft, I look at the value assigned to a player, and compare it to what we actually spent to get the guy. And you have to add in factors such as need, injury history of a player, fit with system, scarcity of a position, and other factors. And we should note that making trades to deal up or down isn't as easy as it seems. It takes two to tango. And super important: as people point out - we don't know the boards of the Packers or any team. Maybe we had Deguara ranked as the 70th best player in the draft. And other teams did as well. If that's the case, so be it. Make your pick. It's why I try not to dwell on the picks. There are so many variables out there - I have my feelings about them, but then just have to shrug and move on. They are our guys - let's hope they are all great. That's what I want. Also, Gute has had only four drafts thus far - and how good those drafts all end up being is still up in the air. Obviously, we can't say anything about this year's draft. There have been some great picks, and some bad ones, and some still to be decided. That's the nature of the draft, however. I really want to stress that there are different philosophies regarding drafting. It makes us all approach things a little differently. It's not right or wrong - just different. I simply have felt we have spent more capital - at times - than needed to get the guys we want. But again, that's based on the information I have.

Nailed it. Picking Love - a guy who wasn't going to play that year - meant using very valuable assets to do so. And it's not like he fell into our lap - like what happened with Rodgers so many years ago. We traded up for the guy. And in doing so, it started the countdown on Rodgers time in GB (not to mention annoy him to no end). If the front office didn't think that would be the case - well they were pretty dumb. You don't pick guys in the 1st round to sit on the bench. And they know what Rodgers is like. But then, maybe they didn't care about any of those things. Maybe they were so convinced Rodgers was in a steep decline they needed to make the move. If so, great. But in doing so, we have a couple of less players on the roster that could really have helped us last year - and in the next few years. Personally, I would rather have added the more immediate asset, and addressed QB down the road. As for Gute, I think he often focuses on specific players instead of best available - and thus has tended to reach for some guys. Not every pick. But some. I think Deguara was a reach. I say, let other teams reach - and we scoop up the value that fall to us. Trouble is, you have to be willing to lose players you really like. That's discipline. Yeah, I get it. A lot of mock drafts are worthless and compiled by a bunch of idiots or wannabes - but some of them are not. In the end, the front office has done pretty well with their selections. Like with all teams, there are some hits and misses. The biggest thing is that the picks have happened. Can't take them back. We can look at them as time goes and assign a different grade to the picks. That's whey we'll be able to make better judgements.

He's a 2B right now with Wong out. Perhaps after that.

I will say that in 2018-19, the Packers receiver corps was nothing special. Graham wasn't very mediocre. And Lazard, Allison, MVS were all pretty inconsistent. Plus, I think McCarthy's scheme was really stale by the end of his term. I think 2019 there was some learning on Rodgers part with LaFleur's offense. I think last season was a culmination of Rodgers getting really comfortable in the scheme, plus some of his receivers gaining experience and confidence in themselves - as well as getting more comfortable with the offense as well. I'm not saying Rodgers wasn't showing some age. Just that his supporting cast, plus the offense situation may have affected his numbers.

I think because these kinds of things even out over time. Teams will go through streaks of losing close games, or blow someone out by 10 runs. And thus it just sort of evens out in the end. The more games you play, the more 'accurate' run differential tends to be. It's not perfect, but it's generally pretty accurate in the long run. If the same players were used in wins and losses, then this makes sense. So I'll buy the runs scored half of run differential since the offense is basically the same every game win or lose. it's crazy to assume that "runs against" are basically the same players pitching in wins and losses, however. Crappy bullpen guys who rotate through the back half of the bullpen throughout the year as well as POSITION players are used in blowouts, and those blowouts losses anyway are extremely unlikely to be started by any of our 3 aces. Nothing is perfect. You talk a lot about the outlier events - blowouts and so forth. Well, every team has them. You lose by 10. You win a week later by 12. Again, things tend to even out - especially over time. But it's not perfect. Just look at 2019 - the last full season: https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/season/2019/group/overall You can see the differential numbers are not perfect - but they aren't bad indicators. Again, it's just a general trend - not a hard and fast rule. For some reasons, so teams win lots of close games, or suffer more blowouts than other teams. It happens. Perhaps the Brewers make up make them not a typical team. Weak offense. Three very good starters. Then two mediocre ones which lead to more than our fair share of blowouts.

In a heartbeat. When all this started shortly after the draft, I looked at all the roster of rumored trade partners, and the Broncos were the only team where enough names popped out at me to at least spark some interest. Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Dalton Risner, Josey Jewell. Only really would be interested in players along with the two first rounders. Third round picks don't do squat for me when talking about trading a player of Rodgers' ability. Tell me more about Jewell. And what are your thoughts on Dre'Mont Jones. Just wondering...

In a heartbeat. When all this started shortly after the draft, I looked at all the roster of rumored trade partners, and the Broncos were the only team where enough names popped out at me to at least spark some interest. Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Dalton Risner, Josey Jewell. Only really would be interested in players along with the two first rounders. Third round picks don't do squat for me when talking about trading a player of Rodgers' ability. How about: DT: Dre'Mont Jones OL: Dalton Risner WR: Jerry Jeudy 2022 1st Round Pick 2022 2nd Round Pick 2023 1st Round Pick 2023 2nd Round Pick I think we are light on the defensive line interior, so Jones works well (although, to be honest, I don't know that much about him - he just seems like a good fit). Jeudy loads up the receiver corps. And Risner slides into the starting lineup - allowing the team some serious flexibility and depth on the OL. The picks help stock the team up with young talent. The only move left (outside of who plays QB) is to sign an ILB - and there are a couple of guys out there that I think could help. Of course, Denver will blanche at giving up so much - but they have some good depth to absorb the loses. Plus, they're getting Rodgers. As noted, the picks are great - but they aren't great. These are likely mid-20s-30 slot picks. Good, but not great.

I'm thinking the Packers will have a lot to think about once mini-camp is over. I mean, they have to be wondering if Love can handle the job this year. A few days with the full squad this week isn't a great way to make those assessments - but it's a start. Rodgers appears to be digging in on his desire to leave the Packers. Last month was voluntary stuff - so I can't fault him for skipping it. Obviously, his missing out on 500k was a huge sign - but it was his choice. But now, he's actually skipping camp, and violating his contract. That's a much bigger step - even if the cost isn't that hefty (93k) - at least for him. So once mini camp is over, the club has to make the assessment on Love. Is he ready? If not, what's the answer? Does that mean if we deal Rodgers, does it have to include a starting QB? I find it hard to believe the Packers would think Lock or Bridgewater was the answer for them - especially with their 'meh' performance to date - and an unimpressive mini-camp (at least, thus far). Perhaps Derek Carr is an option. Who else? Personally, I just hope we can have a Kumbaya moment and things get resolved.

You may not be wrong, but I also don't think it's fair to assume that Love is going to be useless. Presumably, the Packers wouldn't be considering such a move if they didn't like what they have there. Exactly. I think you'd have to feel pretty confident about Love right now - not just in a year or two. I mean, he doesn't have to be a pro bowler - but if you feel he can be league average-ish - that's okay.

Reports from Denver said that Lock and Bridgeport were unimpressive on the first day of mini-camp (yes, it's only one day - but it's fun to speculate). That leads to an interesting scenario. 1) Let's say Rodgers is committed to not playing for Green Bay. 2) Let's say Love looks good at camp - and the club is okay going into the season with him and Bortles. 3) And let's say Denver becomes desperate to get Rodgers - now. 4) And thus Denver offers a monster package for Rodgers. Say three 1st rounders, a couple of 2nds, 2-3 quality players. Do you do it? I know there has been some speculation that the team will let Rodgers sit a year. Or perhaps try and make a deal so he plays in 2021, with a promise to trade him next off season - that sort of thing. To me, a huge haul is the only way you deal Rodgers in 2021. It's got to be a monster offer. Force a team to overpay. Otherwise, you wait until 2022, and you let Rodgers sit for a season. You should still get a decent package next spring. Maybe not as much if you made the deal now - but still a decent one.

Sidebar... It's a pet peeve of mine with baseball and prediction models that use run differential as a projection tool. How can a model accurately predict anything when a team could go 6-1 in a week, winning 6 games by 2 (+12) runs each game and getting blown out by 10 runs (-10) in the one loss, have only a +2 run differential and say they're playing essentially at a .500 clip? Run differential alone is the worst predictive model IMO. I think because these kinds of things even out over time. Teams will go through streaks of losing close games, or blow someone out by 10 runs. And thus it just sort of evens out in the end. The more games you play, the more 'accurate' run differential tends to be. It's not perfect, but it's generally pretty accurate in the long run.

It makes too much sense Cron has a .693 OPS outside of Coors. Not saying he wouldn't work - but I'd be wary of Coors inflated performances.

No company that gives a rip about employee satisfaction is going to hire a replacement before getting rid of the problem employee. With the exception of sports where they hope every draft pick and free agent signing is a replacement for someone on the team. Including Love who has now displaced Tim Boyle. Having said that, do more players retire from sports or get cut and then retire? Considering the average NFL career lasts something 2.5 years, I'm guessing most players are cut or not offered contracts. Most would love to continue playing. Few will make that kind of money ever again.

How company's operate is all over the board. To say it is done this way or that was simply is wrong or being overly simplistic. Every company is unique. Every company has different challenges, goals, issues, etc., etc. And even within a company, the practices are different depending on the job and the person and the specific situation. It just varies wildly from place-to-place and situation-to-situation.

I agree with you. He had a contract. It made him the highest paid player at the time. He'd just banked something like $60M the year before. As people said - he signed it, live with it, etc., etc. But I also agree it would have probably been good to communicate with him the possibilities of the draft beforehand. I mean, the club knows he's a got a prickly personality and he's known to hold grudges. Why not have a conversation to head off any misunderstandings? He's the most important person on your team - and no matter what anyone says in ANY organization, some people are more equal than others. "Aaron, we've got a draft board. Know that if a QB we like comes up, we might pick him. We have a couple of guys we'd even take in the 1st round. We are not trying to replace you. It's about having a quality player behind you - an issue that's been a problem for use when you've had injuries. I'd compare it to the Garoppolo situation in New England a few years ago." Now, in the team's defense, perhaps they expected Love to go earlier (although he was kind of all over the place in the mocks, so I don't think anyone was sure he'd be gone). And they figured, why poke the bear when it's unlikely we pick Love. No point in agitating Rodgers by bringing up the matter when it's not likely to happen. Of course, if that was the case, a quick call to him right before the pick might have been nice. Another thing - and I think this is really important - it might simply be how Green Bay operates - and they've communicated that fact to everyone. The team may simply say, "We talk to no one before the draft. Sorry if this frustrates anyone, but that's how it works. " Again, it doesn't preclude a quick phone call right before Love is picked - but you get the idea. I'm sure the Packers had their reasons not to talk to Rodgers beforehand - light a fire under him, make sure we have a good backup, etc, etc. But whatever - we can hash this over and over. Some people say they don't owe Rodgers a thing in that situation. Some say it's not a bad idea. There's good points in both sides.

As a note, Rodgers stands to lose a big chunk of that guarantee if he retires. $11.5M of his bonus is prorated in 2021 and another $11.5 in 2022. If he retires, the Packers and recoup that $23M. Plus he got a $6.8 bonus earlier this year. We can go after that as well. That means if he retires, he can lose $30M of the $80M guarantee. All that said, your point is a valid one. We have paid him a lot - and new contracts probably only make things even more painful down the road. Of course, if you win a Super Bowl in the next year or two - you're probably happy to do that. But the piper must be paid at some point.

No one can answer this because no one knows exactly what - and if - he's asked for. People all assume he wants more money or guarantees or whatever. That may very well be true. And I would suspect it was something like that. But it seems fruitless for everyone to complaining about what Rodgers wants or is demanding or whatever until we know for sure. The Packers have reportedly made him an extension offer - but no one knows the details. Is that more money? More guarantees? Is it some simple restructuring to push cap money down the road? Again, know one knows but Rodgers and the team. Sure, be annoyed or mad that he's dragging this out. The uncertainty doesn't help the team in any way.

Mancini is a great story. I'm guessing that Baltimore only trades him if he's okay with it. But who wouldn't want to get out of that situation - even after all he's been through? I'd be all for him. He'd fit right in at 1B - a huge upgrade. As for your offer - I think it's little light. In 2019, Mancini put up a bWAR of 3.9 and an fWAR of 3.7. So far in 2021, he's pretty much on that same pace - maybe even a bit better: 1.5 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR. That means Mancini is a very productive player for the next 1 and 2/3 seasons (which any team would get out of him). 4.0 WAR players are really good to have. And Mancini might be the kind of guy who would ink a reasonable extension as he's 29 - and coming off an obvious frightening situation. He might like the idea of some security - sort of like Whit Merrifield did a couple of years ago with KC. Lock in some life changing money in case the health issues return. Speaking of health issues, Mancini's cancer - stage 3 colon cancer - is incredibly serious. I don't know what to expect going forward - perhaps no one does - but it's got to hurt his value to some degree. All that said, I think you need more than Ray and Small. Of course, perhaps I'm underestimating Small's value. It's a hard one to quantify in my books. Perhaps others have better thoughts than me.

Yeah, there are questions. I guess we will find out details down the road. It's why I am hesitant to join either camp at this time. No one knows exactly what was said/done/not done between Rodgers and the front office. My guess it was Rodgers asking the team to commit to him beyond 2021 - and they said no (at least at first or in the manner he desired). And that set off the events as they sit today. It was likely a culmination of many things - but that might have been the thing that sent him over the edge. But that is just my guess. Again, we will probably find out more down the road. And I'll throw stones at whomever deserves it at that time. I am critical of the team for letting things get to this point - and that's because good organizations don't let this kind of thing happen. They recognize the minefields in front of them and work to avoid them. But I also understand that things can spin out of control despite best efforts. Again, we will find out more down the road.

Jordon Love to Atlanta for Julio Jones. Kiss and make up with Rodgers. Atlanta gets their QB of the future. Rodgers gets a major weapon (albeit aging and coming off an injury) - and we lose the specter of Jordon Love hovering over everything. Rework Rodgers deal - and Jones' - to make the cap stuff work. It gives you a 2-3 year run before cap issues really cause problems - but what the heck - it's a 'go for it' kind of thing. HA HA! Problems solved! I know it's not realistic - but it's it's a message board - fun to speculate.

I wouldn't expect a resolution to things anytime soon. Rodger can skip mini-camp this money and be fined up to about $95,000 for doing so. Not a huge deal for him. The big thing will be training camp on July 27. I think fines are like 50k a day. And if you miss a preseason game - it's a regular season game check. Plus, other teams are going to want to have as much time as possible to get a new QB up to speed. It's not like getting a new shortstop or 2nd baseman in baseball. That all said - if Rodgers wants to he can wait another 8 weeks before making a decision.

I just asked people to stop this kind of thing a few hours ago - and yet here it is again. Please STOP.