Matt Breen

Would it be better to see what Nottingham could do as Pina's backup? Flowers is a nice backup, but if Pina is going to be the starter, I believe Nottingham deserves a look as the part-time catcher. My guess is no. The Brewers are a playoff team. They will value the predictability of a player like Flowers. Nottingham just hasn't been the good. It doesn't mean he won't force the issue, but until he does, the club isn't going to go with a guy like him for 80 games. There's just way too much risk in that. Jacob needs to go to AAA and demonstrate he's really ready to take the next step. And let's face it, the opportunity will likely arise at some point as injuries occur. You might elect to run out Nottingham if the club was staring at a 65 win season - but that's not the case. The team will go with the veteran most of the time. Even if the veteran is mediocre.

I'm going to Vegas next May, so if people advice on pretty much anything, I'd love to hear it. My wife and I aren't gamblers (other than some simple games here and there).

I have read that Lux is a solid SS. Not great, but solid. His biggest issue has been throwing accuracy. He had a lot of errors his first few years (61 errors in his first 208 games). But he was better last year. He probably can stick at SS (at least for now), but he likely won't be great with the glove. The Dodgers supposedly see him as a 2B with Seager already there. Defensively, they feel he'll be an above average 2B. And the accuracy issues won't be as big a deal.

Here you go: Brewers get: RHP Joe Kelly (-12.7M value) IF/OF Chris Taylor (10.0M value) $4M (to cover contract buyout in 2022) Dodgers get: B grade prospect worth about 1.5M Numbers are from the fun trade simulator at https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ The Dodgers already owe around $170M in salaries (including arby) for 2020. They reportedly are interested in Rendon - who will likely get around $35M a year. Plus they probably want Ryu back. They need to shed money. Kelly is due $8.8M in 2020 and 2021. Plus there's a $4M buyout for 2022 on a $12M salary. We'll let the Dodgers pay that. Taylor is due about $4.5M in 2020 in arby. Combined, this samba them over $13M - not a small sum. Kelly goes to our bullpen. He's not been particularly good of late, but his FIP numbers indicate he may be better than his ERA (4.56 and 4.39) over the last couple of years. If he can pitch more toward those numbers, he's an okay player. Taylor can slot in at SS, plus play 2B and 3B as needed. If Arcia somehow gets better, Taylor is still a guy that can get a ton of playing time all over the field In the end, you add Taylor for two years. This solidifies shortstop - a huge need. Of course, it takes on $13M in salary - but you're not giving up much of anything else.

Thanks, Hernan, for some nice moments. He seems like a good guy, and will be missed in the clubhouse. I appreciated what he brought to the team, but at this stage, it just isn't worth it. He just doesn't hit enough, and his versatility means he gets too many at bats. And at the price of $2M+, we have other options. Someone will likely give him a job (at closer to the minimum) - and I wish him well (except when he plays us).

If we can't resign Grandal, I'm guessing the club adds someone like Flowers. He's a very good defender, bat is not good, but it's not terrible. He would team up with Pina for a 50/50 platoon, so neither player gets worn down over the season. It's not a great situation, but it would be fairly inexpensive, it would maintain our good defense behind the plate, and provide okay offensive production. Again, not good offense, just okay.

My biggest concern is Story's performance away from Coors. At Coors, he puts up a 1.000 OPS. Away from Coors, he's an .800 OPS. The latter number is not bad for a SS, but it's not great. I'd be afraid we'd get a good, but not great player, who will be really expensive, and under control for only three years. Still, it's an interesting idea. I like Gray (and Hoffman as a throw in). And many players thrive outside of Coors (look at LaMahieu). It's not like Story couldn't adjust to playing in a different environment.

Seems logical that Cincy would listen on AJ Green. Not sure about guys that know the Shanahan-based offense, though. AJ Green will end up in New England. That's my guess.

Cardinals gone. Life is better. I'm all in for the Nats - no matter who wins in the AL.

Taylor is an interesting option. Had not thought about him.

While I doubt the Dodgers give up Lux, I will throw out a few thoughts on this proposal. 1. Adding Braun is not enticing to LA. They have Pederson, Bellinger, Verdugo, Chris Taylor, A.J. Pollack -- just foolish for them to add a defensive challenged LF who makes so much money to an already crowded situation. 2. Why would the Dodgers trade Lux? His value is really, really high right now. If the Dodgers think Lux will be good - but not great - then they could potentially deal him for the right player. 3. The value of Hader is really high, so the Brewers may consider dealing Josh now - rather than waiting. And while Hader won't be expensive - his price tag will rise each year going forward. 4. The Dodgers would get Hader for four years, which I'm sure they would appreciate. Jansen is under contract for two more years - and is starting to show some cracks (3.71 ERA last year). 5. The Dodgers bullpen was good last year - but not great. Their postseason performance can't have made them feel any better about the pen either. Getting a dominating arm like Hader would be a perfect solution for them. Again, I don't see the Dodgers dealing Lux. Teams are usually very reluctant to give up such highly touted prospects. Lux will probably slot in at 2B for the Dodgers, which would make for a formidable infield. The Dodgers can then spend money on some arms (which is a risky solution - but not a bad idea if you have the cash). I also think the Crew would be really reluctant to deal Hader. His season ending performance aside, he's just such a unique weapon. However, it's not that far-fetched of an idea. With their deep farm system and roster, the Dodgers could live without Lux. Getting a guy like Hader is almost impossible (Chapman could opt out of his contract, but that's a big if - and he'd cost a ton as a FA), and if Lux is the price, it might make everyone seriously consider it. And with the Dodgers postseason failures the past few years, they might decide a 'go for it' move like Hader for Lux would be worth it.

I believe the club can cut the player before final rosters are set, but they still owe 1/6 of the agreed upon salary (whether via arbitration or just agreeing on a figure). Thus a guy like Shaw, even if we agree to a $4.7M salary, could be cut prior to the start of the year and the club would own him roughly $780,000. So offering arbitration still has a financial pitfall if you don't keep the player.

MLB Trade Rumors has released their arbitration estimates for 2020. They are usually pretty good about their estimates, but are not perfect. No matter, it's nice to see some numbers as the club puts together next year's club. Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM Hernan Perez – $3.0MM Corey Knebel – $5.125MM Alex Claudio – $2.2MM Travis Shaw – $4.7MM Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM Zach Davies – $5.0MM Junior Guerra – $3.5MM Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM Ben Gamel – $1.6MM Brent Suter – $900K Tyler Austin – $1.2MM Full list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

Davies Woodruff Houser Lyles (2-years, $8-10M) Gio (1-year, $3-4M) Why? Anderson will make $8.5 million. You can probably get a better player for $8M. Nelson made $3.7M in 2019. Figure he makes a similar number next year in his final year of arby. That's just too much for someone who has not looked good. The team will just cut ties, unless they can ink him to a lesser deal. The team could offer Nelson arbitration, see how he does in camp, and cut him if he looks bad. They would only need to pay him 1/6 of his salary - which would probably be 600-650k. This is, obviously, risky, but if Nelson comes out looking solid, you're good. If not, the money lose isn't overwhelming. Relievers: Hader, Knebel, Suter, Claudio, Guerra, Pomeranz (if he can be resigned), plus a couple of guys from the list of Jay Jackson, Taylor Williams, Faria, and maybe Jeffress on a minor league or cheap deal. And maybe one of the minor league guys will step up. Peralta and Burnes would need to be assessed and slotted in appropriately. Freddy might be best as a reliever, but I can't really say. Burnes is hard. I thought he was going to be a good player this year. I'd say let him be a starter - head to the minors and get stuff together. We'll need him eventually. He could be your 6th starter (assuming he looks okay). Otherwise, you fall back on someone like Faria for the rotation - which his really risky. In the end, I don't see big free agent signings. No way we pay $35M for Cole or $30M for Strasburg (or whatever they will make). And paying $15M+ for a mid-level starter seems to be a bad idea. I think the club will inquire on a bunch of guys - MadBum, Odorizzi, Wheeler, etc., etc. - but someone will overpay for them - in years and dollars. If a bargain falls into the club's lap, sure, they will pounce. But they won't overextend themselves on starters. They'll settle for guys like Gio and Lyles. I also could see them adding a bounce back arm, like Alex Wood. He's the kind of guy that could start, or end up in the bullpen. All just my way to early guesses.

Villar was a talented, frustrating and inconsistent player. That's the kind of person that drives managers crazy. He was an erratic fielder, and his base running was often a source of frustration. Reliability is a huge part of being a professional ballplayer (or in any field). Teams pay big dollars to players to take care of business. Villar had obvious skills, and had had one great season. But had followed with several bad-mediocre ones. As a playoff contender, the club was at a point where 'bad' Villar was more common than 'good' Villar. You just can't live with that kind of production. This is why Arcia is going to be heavily scrutinized. The club needs better and more consistent production from the position. If this was a sub-.500 team, you can live with his inconsistencies and hope he matures. But if you want to be a contender, the club might put more value on a different type of player.

The Brewers have a window of opportunity to win over the next three years. Yelich is the key player - he's the kind of guy that can transform an offense. We control him through 2022. That's the time frame that we can shoot for. The offense includes Yelich, Cain (hopefully healthy and better), Grisham and Hiura. As well as Braun and (probably) Thames through next season. While retaining Moose and Grandal would be expensive, it would fit perfectly into the Brewers offense for the next 2-3 years. Let's face it - we have no obvious replacement for Moose (unless a Shaw rebound in likely), and no one for Grandal (Nottingham doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, and the younger players, such as Feliciano, are years away - and are not sure things). With any player, a long term deal is risky. But the options are not great. We simply don't have the talent in the upper minors ready to step in. And we don't have excess talent on the major league roster to deal to fill holes. If we let Moose and/or Grandal walk - we likely replace him with a worse player. Maybe Shaw rebounds, but I don't know. Lucas Erceg hasn't shown he is the answer. FA options are either too expensive (Donaldson, Rendon) or not good enough/aging (Frazier, Prado, etc.). Grandal's replacement would probably be someone to platoon with Manny Pina. Not terrible, but a downgrade. In the end, I think the club tries to bring both back - but there are some big risks. We would be relying on a lot of older players. However, the options just aren't that great.

A few things. First, Iglesias has shown to be a better hitter and fielder than Arcia the last few years. Lots better? Not really, but his consistency would be a welcome upgrade from Orlando. Second, despite all that, Iglesias is not that good. He offers little upside. Decent batting average, good defense. He’s a 1.5 WAR guy. Maybe 2.0 if he does well. That is, however, a big improvement over Arcia. Third, Iglesias may very well need to be promised a starting gig. That’s no guarantee, but the Reds supposedly liked his play and would like him back. It only takes one team to make such an offer. Point is that getting him may not be that easy. In the end, I think so much depends on the club’s vision of Arcia going forward. If they’re convinced he’s not going to get better, they shouldn’t stand pat. However, if they want to give him another go - not a huge deal. If Arcia matures - not out of the question for a younger player - it could be a big boon. I don’t know if there’s a correct answer - but the club needs to address the situation going forward.

I believe Grandal had a 4-year, $60M offer from the Mets. Perhaps I’m remembering that incorrectly. But he made a big deal out of annual value - and how none of the other deals reached the $18M+ that he believed he was worth. Getting rid of the attached draft compensation should help do that for him this offseason. I’m guessing he gets $18-20M on 3-4 years. Not a huge jump on this year’s pay, but with the added security.

The big thing with SS is that even a minor investment could yield the team a couple of wins. Arcia has a -0.5 bWAR / -0.6 fWAR - which is pretty awful. The team could add someone like Inglesias - who's generally clocked in at a 1.5-2.0 WAR player - and that gets you two wins right there. Inglesias shouldn't cost that much - maybe $4-5M - but I'm thinking the Reds will want to keep him. A lot would depend on if we would guarantee him a starting job - which we might not be willing to do. If the club can re-sign Moose and Grandal, solidifying the SS position would be a smart move.

Thanks for keeping tabs on these players. I simply don't have the time/energy/ability to follow this stuff - so I love it when the community keeps us informed. Thanks.

Trent Grisham has reached 130 ABs. No longer rookie eligible. Was great to see him hold his own these past 6-7 weeks. He should only get better.

I will not miss Matt Albers next year.

The days on the active roster will be why he graduates. Think Grisham will still maintain prospect eligibility as long as he doesn't get to 130 ABs, because September days don't count towards the 45 day limit... “A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).” Grisham has reached 130 ABs for the season. He is thus no longer eligible for our next Prospect Poll. Nice job in 2019, Trent.

I'm guessing Cole gets 7-years and $245M. That's $35M annually. Houston or the Yankees will sign him. Darkhorse is SF. This is all assuming Cole hits the open market.

I am starting a Gerrit Cole thread so that we don't use other threads to discuss the idea of adding the outstanding right handed starter. Enjoy.