ChapelHeel66

Are Fischer (3b) and Adamczewski (2b/of) hurt? We are signing and trading for guys with <600 OPS and no defense. Surely someone healthy on the farm can hit OR field (preferably both).

Any theories about why we are wasting time with Ornelas (as we did with Bae) instead of bringing someone up? These guys are below replacement hitters and not very good defenders. At first I thought we were preserving rookie status for 2027 but we are past that now.

Some of Murphy’s explanations are backfilling, I think. In general he does not love Ortiz’s approach at the plate, and he instantly fell in love with all things David Hamilton. I think that is the overarching factor. Not a granular statistical evaluation, which Murphy generally seems to be skeptical of when he doesn’t like the answer. Because frankly, Ortiz hits righties as well as Yelich does. To me, some of Murph’s decisions are strange, but it seems to be working so I’ll ride those lineup decisions out. The one that most concerns me is the idea that we have enough hitting to see this thing all the way through.

I agree that a “washed up” label is harsh, but I disagree that this is a post-All Star break problem. His underlying metrics were bad even when his numbers looked reasonable (while still being below his norm). He was running a massive BABIP the first couple of months, while getting only average results. The swing metrics have been consistently awful all year. His early “okay” results were destined to regress without some changes. That has not happened. And this is while opposing pitchers still have not adjusted to the fact he hasn’t been able to handle breaking pitches for two seasons (they are actually throwing him fewer breakers). My take is different than lack of confidence driving his poor results. I think his poor underlying hitting metrics are driving the bad results, which are producing the lack of confidence. For lack of confidence to be the driver, we would have to assume he lacked confidence from the start of the season,, Maybe that’s the case, but I don’t remember hearing anything like that during spring training. Put another way, his lack of confidence is actually justified, because he has not been able to solve the underlying problems. That would hurt anyone’s confidence. I’m sure there is some natural decline in his skills, but aging doesn’t usually look like a cliff, so I think he still has something to contribute. However, I am not convinced it will happen this year, which is why I was disappointed we did not get a bat at the deadline (not instead of May…in addition to him). He’s currently a poor hitter with no position…basically a replacement level player. If he has not substantially improved the underlying issues by the call-ups, then I hope we give Fischer a chance at his spot. This is analysis, not criticism. I want Yelich to perform well, and he has a place on the team regardless. But to achieve our goals, he may need to be in the back seat.

I think we are just criticizing a moment. It doesn't meant the front office is bad -- that would be an absurd take, given the number of games MIL has won the last couple of years and the minor league talent it has built. But even a good front office can misstep or not do enough in the big moments. It is possible, of course, that a team very good at winning ballgames, the division, and even a playoff series, will not do enough with the roster to win a World Series. MIL cannot become a prisoner of its own small market teambuilding, patting itself on the back for doing more with less. There's no getting around that the real trophy requires much more aggressive moves than we have seen. The team is not close enough to take baby steps when there is a window. The Cubs just gave up their #1 prospect for Clay Holmes AND a major league outfielder with an OPS near .800. Their #1 prospect is effectively ranked the same as Alexander Frias, who we used (along with another prospect) to get a worse starting pitcher and an injured, underperforming reliever. That's worth noting, even while recognizing that MIL's front office is excellent overall.

Yeah, the FIP is really good this season overall (3.14), but Bernie is being selective with the evaluation. His expected FIP (3.87), expected ERA (3.91) and SIERA (3.94) tell a different story, but the same story. And his K%-BB% is pretty banal. All those latter stats are more predictive of future performance than actual FIP. (That does not make him a bad pitcher, of course).

Oof. Two potential major league outfielders to rent a starter who does not miss bats and a lefty reliever with an inflated WHIP and who isn't even available for a couple more weeks? This tells me the Brewers lost on every other potential pitcher out there. Or maybe something else is still coming. Even if these two guys help us, this is not a World Series move, so let's hope this is not all we have to talk about after the trade deadline.

I’m getting nervous. Four hours to go and we got Bo Naylor.

Agreed. The Dodgers are in position to resign Skubal, making him more than a two-month rental. We would have lost that off-season sweepstakes. I'd rather pay less and get Detmers, for example, and also add a bat.

Eek. If you thought Perkins couldn't hit, wait til you see Naylor. Is Pat Murphy so frustrated with Gary Sanchez's challenges that we need a better defensive backup...for two players? "The main benefit of the deal will come if they can turn Naylor back into the better version of himself." That's true defensively, as he has traditionally been pretty good but has graded out average this year on defense. But the "better version of himself" at the plate is still a very bad hitter. He lost his job to Patrick Bailey. I hope Perkins gets more playing time in Cleveland and can reset. He's a good piece on a ballclub.

Who wouldn't want Skubal? It's only about the price, and the price needs to take into account that the Brewers are likely to be outspent by a big market team to retain him after this year. Ultimately, I would not give up four prospects for a rental, because I don't think Skubal alone wins us a World Series this year. Can we win a World Series with the lowest power output in MLB? Maybe, but it is not likely. And one of our prime prospect trade chips, Quero, has less value for Detroit than almost any other available trade partner, because they have Dingler (stellar at the plate and behind it) under team control into the next decade. We can boost the team in multiple ways by adding more modest pieces. For example, I would certainly rather have Detmers and a power bat for the same prospects it would take to land one of the best pitchers in the game. There aren't a ton of power bats available on lists I've seen. Taylor Ward fits the Brewers profile, but rarely swings anymore, so his power has dissipated. I might take a chance on the dynamic Jarren Duran. He has had a (truly) miserable season, but I think it is the environment. This is 29 year old who has three straight years with an OPS+ of 115 or better every year. He is two years removed from a 9 WAR season!. I can't believe he is an OPS+ 62 and replacement level player all of a sudden. You can see the tension building there in Boston. I think playing for the Crew would take a huge weight off his shoulders and he would thrive. He's buy low, both in terms of prospects to get him and $$ to re-sign him.

I love Fangraphs but their 40+ on Fischer continues to confuse me, because the actual write-up is much rosier than a below-average player. "He clearly has the arm to play third, he's willing to lay out to maximize his lateral range, and he looked comfortable navigating the procedure at the position even though he was pushed directly to High-A. His hands are only fair, but he's going to be a viable third baseman who gets to power. Though we'd be surprised if Fischer were to become a star, he looks like a potential everyday third baseman whose realistic floor is still that of a valuable, multi-positional player who mashes righties." A 40+ is a bench bat fighting for a roster spot. The write up suggests a 50 or 50+, which seems right to me. It's also very early days on Payne, but they have him as a 45. I think he is at least a 60 and could ultimately be #1 on the Brewers list. There's no way I would have Jett or Josh (or Lara) above Andrew and Braylon, but Eric and Brendan are pros, and they certainly are (rightly) concerned about the K rates of both those guys.

Wacha is unspectacular, but steady as as a rock, and we could use some of that. He's a quality start machine.

Also, I don't think anyone has mentioned that the Angels front office seems exceptionally subpar. They are in a huge market and have never been able to build around the best player of his generation. I think our boys can outsmart them.

Soriano got off to a blazing start, but in the last 16 starts (almost 3/4 of his season so far) he's a guy with a WHIP of nearly 1.45, and most of the bad part of that WHIP is walks (4.5/9 IP). He gets Whiffs at an elite level, but the walks leave his K%-BB% at 13.7%, which is pedestrian (and it's only 9.1% in his last four starts). In his last 11 starts his Stuff+ has been above 95 only twice. He looks to me like a guy who is fading. I'm ok acquiring his arm because the Crew are going to need someone, and I'm ok parting with Quero because he needs a place to play and Dinges is an equally good prospect that can fill the gap. I'm not ok throwing a stack of prospects to the Angels for Soriano. Detmers, on the other hand, is above average on the walk side and well above average on the strikeout side (K%-BB% = 20.9% and 29.6%(!) in his last four starts). He has basically been the same high quality pitcher all year long, but he is susceptible to giving up too many barrels. However, I would rather put Chris Hook on getting Detmers to avoid barrels than having Chris try to improve Soriano's stuff and walk rate. Detmers is a much better pitcher than Soriano, but of course that also makes him more expensive. I can deal with Quero plus another prospect and a draft pick for Detmers. They are both arb eligible next year -- and both are going to get a big raise -- but they are not FAs for a couple of years.

I wouldn't say "whose defense has been questioned." That makes it sound like there are a couple of naysayers. The reality is that on Baseball Savant his Range is a 1 (out of 100) and his arm is a 40 (out of 100). The year before, those scaled ratings were 3 and 39, so this is not an anomaly. He is basically the worst defensive shortstop in MLB. Here are his ranks by Fielding Run Value the last three years among qualified players (2024-2026): 86 (out of 86), 77 (out of 77), 71 (out of 73). I would not give up meaningful prospects for a terrible shortstop that we would have to teach to play 3b in the midst of a playoff run. Nothing about Abrams says "Brewer" to me. I'd rather "spend" less and get Casey Schmitt or inquire about Isaac Paredes (who is a below average defensive 3b, but not worst in the league...and he actually plays the position). Or just bring up Pena right now. He has looked pretty good at 3b, and while he is still an immature hitter, my major league translations for 2026 for him are not much different than Pratt's (and are quite a bit better long-term, at the plate). The only question is whether that's a meaningful upgrade over Ortiz/Hamilton at 3b...enough to interrupt Pena's development. Personally, I hope Pena is not involved in one of these trades, unless we truly get something terrific in return. I'm still confused about the long-term contract to Pratt when we have two better prospects at the same position.

I don't love that 2027 opening lineup, particularly the left side of the infield (from a hitting perspective) and continuing reliance on Yelich, who is really showing some age decline. Loss of Bauers will be a big hit to the offense that Fischer won't cover initially, although really, Vaughn should be a full-time player right now. But, I agree with all your choices. I think Ortiz's spot could be taken by any of Made, Pena, and Jett, but that will be determined in camp, because right now they all project to be roughly the same as hitters in 2027 (in terms of value). Actually, I think Pratt will offensively be no different that those three youngsters either, but he's more mature defensively.

He should be expensive based on talent, but if MIN cannot re-sign him anyway — which I assume is the case given the Twins ownership — the price may be lower, because getting something is better than getting nothing.

Detmers has some great underlying numbers, and fantastic stuff, although it can be a bumpy ride. But he's a pitcher. He doesn't play every day, and is much more likely to get injured than a position player. I don't think he can move the needle enough to sacrifice Pena. If a prospect of that caliber gets traded, it needs to be for another bat. Everyday catchers do not grow on trees -- and that's how Quero projects. But he does not have a huge upside and I think I could stomach including him in a deal for Detmers. We have Contreras for at least another year, which feels like the real window to make a deep run. We would need a longer term solution at catcher, but there is time to figure that out. If the Brewers can shape up Dinges defensively, we may already have the answer.

I have a Major League Equivalent calculation of Fischer, and ran some MLB player-season comps at Fischer's mean projection age 27 (and also the upper and lower bands of an 80% confidence interval). For the comps, I use HR Rate, BB Rate, SO Rate, OBP, SLG, Speed Score split into two components, and handedness, and an age factor. Comparable seasons at my mean MLE projection for him at age 27 included Will Myers 2019, our own Jake Bauers 2023, Steven Souza 2015 and Patrick Wisdom 2022. None of those are particularly good seasons, but they aren't terrible (think 720-ish OPS). The strikeouts are big problem. His upside at the 80% confidence level (age 27) produced the likes of Bryan LaHair 2012, Domingo Santana 2019, Ryan McMahon 2019, Ian Happ 2021, and Jamie Outman 2023. The names are not exciting, but those are some decent seasons (think 775-ish OPS). Also in the range of encouraging outcomes are seasons from Justin Upton, William Contreras and Brandon Lowe. At the low band, seasons from Michael Toglia, Oswaldo Arcia, Joey Bart, Michael Toglia and Christopher Morel (think 645 OPS). *The comps are hitting only. They do not take position into account.

Good analysis (including using the new Statcast timing metrics).

I would watch Schmitt closely this month. You are right that he has some big chase issues. If he can rein those in, his actual contact rates are quite good. Unfortunately, he's trending in the wrong direction on chase. Also, he hasn't walked since May 30 and only has 7 for the entire year. His walk rate is less than half of LAST year's Chourio. Does he have the plate discipline to be a Brewer? Yes on contact, but no on OBP. He's got some power that makes up for it, and he would be moving from the worst HR park for right handed hitters to a slightly favorable one. But I'm getting concerned about the barrel rate. The first two months of Casey Schmitt were ideal. But the last four weeks he's at 7.3%, which is more consistent with his history than the 12% rate he has for the entire season. That 7.3% is a little below average. Based on his swing timing metrics, I expect him to be around 8.1%, which is a little above average, but nothing like what the almost 15% rate he was rocking through May. I think Schmitt has found something new, but regression is catching up. I see him as a .750 OPS guy (with the OBP component around .300), and definitely not the .880 player he was through May. Granted, almost anything is a bat upgrade over the current 3b situation, so this is not an argument against Schmitt, who is a nice player with position versatility. But I do think MIL needs to consider regression in deciding how much to give up for him, because he is a definitely a "sell-high" candidate for the Giants.

Yeah, the Location+ on the Sinker is 88 for the season compared to 96 last year. And in his last 10 games it's down to 78. Since that is his #1 pitch, he is up almost 1 BB/9, which is almost a third of a run right there. The Sinker is also the setup for the breaking stuff and the change. He cannot sub in the 4-seamer for some of the Sinker's work because the four-seamer gets creamed. But that has not always been the case. All the sample sizes are small, but he has had some success with the four-seam FB in the past. I think he's going to need to drop the Sinker usage by about 5% and sprinkle it elsewhere among the plus pitches, including a few more fastballs. Either that or get his arm angle back down on that pitch. A couple of degrees makes a big difference.

Jesus MadeLuis PenaLuis LaraJeferson QueroCooper PrattJett WilliamsAndrew FischerBishop LetsonJosh AdamczewskiJD ThompsonJosh KnothBrady EbelBraylon PayneTyson HardinBlake BurkeColeman CrowCraig YohoBryce MeccageBrett WichrowskiMarco Dinges

There will be some regression. All our expected hitting metrics are mid-to-low-mid among the 30 teams, and in many cases behind our division rivals. I’m not worried about PIT and I don’t think STL has the pitching, but the Cubs lineup is massively underperforming. If our guys regress some and the Cubs get hot, it could still be a race. We still need a bat to take this all the way. The left side of the infield and RF are all below replacement. Every team can afford some below average guys, especially if they can defend, but a third of the lineup below replacement is a problem, and Yelich is surviving on a .377 BABIP that will definitely come down. I’d like to take a run at Carlos Cortes. Great hitter very much in the Brewers style and seemingly unappreciated with the A’s. They platoon him even though he hit lefties in the minors. He would immediately be our leadoff hitter and push Yeli and Chourio down to run producing spots.