PeaveyFury

Yeah, their only viable backup option on the roster at center is Myers with Jenkins hurt and Patrick’s versatility now in Chicago. I’d have zero issue with a highly graded IOL for versatility and depth on the line, as you can never have too many linemen. Especially if there’s belief that like Jenkins he can kick out to tackle competently in a pinch. I too would probably prefer a straight tackle if they go there early, but I wouldn’t be surprised or upset at all if they go Johnson or Green if they see value there.

Woods' RAS scores are going to make it tough for him to slide as far as most of us hope he will. I think they'd need to take him at 92, if he's even still there. But I agree, I want him to be a Packer very, very much.

Absolutely. A potentially dominant d-line presence to wreak havoc with Clark.

Reports that the Packers hosted Devonte Wyatt on a visit yesterday.

I’m less excited about Sanders than about 6 other late first/second round edge guys, but I’d be very happy with the other three picks.

Packers reported pre-draft visits thus far: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas Sam Williams, EDGE, Ole Miss Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor Velus Jones, Jr., WR, Tennessee George Pickens, WR, Georgia John Thompson, CB, Texas Eric Johnson II, DL, Missouri State Tariq Carpenter, SAF/LB, Georgia Tech Samori Toure, WR, Nebraska Reported Virtual Meetings Alex Wright, EDGE, UAB Jamaree Salyer, OL, Georgia Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA Leon O’Neal, SAF, Texas A&M https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/nfl-draft-2022-packers/2022/4/1/23006155/packers-2022-pre-draft-visits-tracking-top-30-and-virtual-meetings

....which, to be fair, is what is being discussed above. And on your initial point, I apologize if my post came across as assuming all-pro performance. Rather, it jumped to the point in his career that, as the previous poster noted, if the Packers were at the point they were considering offering a 2nd contract to a 28-29 year old, it would presumably be the result of high-caliber play prior to that event.

As you well know, sometimes what fans perceive as "common knowledge" can often have exceptions to these assumed 'rules', regardless of how assertively their stated on fan sites.

I agree- seems like a late riser as people look to his general athletic rankings and overlook the one apparent concern, which is his size for the position. The question would be whether the Packers would have him ranked enough ahead of the 'next-tier' edge guys like Mafe, Drake Jackson, or Ojabo to take him at 28, knowing that he's unlikely to make it to 53.

Though I don't share your apparent confidence in my knowledge about the Packers' thought process, I think you've actually countered your own argument with your last sentence. The Packers could draft him in the first to get the 5th year, then simply let him walk at age 30, getting 5 years of all-pro caliber RT play on a rookie contract then moving on without paying him big money, ever.

I think the assumption is that with GB's fantastic o-line staff, they'll quickly be able to address Raimann's issues. He graded out exceptionally well last year despite his limited time at the position, and I saw someplace (and don't recall where, sadly) that he allowed an absurdly low amount of PRESSURES all season. Considering that many expect him to be a legit NFL LEFT tackle, I'm confident he'd be a cornerstone at RT for Green Bay and nice insurance should Bakh struggle again with the knee.

Thanks for doing this Louis- a nice read as always. Touching on #28 and your analysis: I've previously expressed my thought that the Packers may use 22 to grab someone who slides and then get their WR at 28. After more thought, I'm coming around to the inverse idea- that there's so much uncertainty over where Olave/Burks/London actually end up going that it may be the smartest play to grab whichever is there (or the one you like best if multiple) at 22, then use 28 elsewhere. In this case, I think it's very possible in my mind that they surprise us by taking more of a 'project' type that has immense, top-of-the-draft potential but needs a year of development/coaching at a position where they need depth but not a week 1 starter. In my mind, that's edge and OT for them. Wouldn't shock me at all to grab a high RAS guy like Ebiketie or an intriguing OT prospect like Raimann, who needs a bit of coaching but feels like a long-term RT solution with a year with Steno, etc. despite his age. Both would likely have the armchair GMs complaining that they could have been had in the 2nd based on the mocks they've seen, but then those complaints will quietly (mostly) disappear when they'll develop into all-pro caliber players within a couple of years.

I think this mentality is what we think the draft is, and it truly is because of the 'fantasy draft' mentality- you've got specific spots to fill, so you must fill them, etc. In reality, good NFL GMs draft for some combination of filling holes, building depth, planning for future departures, and getting value from their board. That's why, even if they take a guy that doesn't "fill a hole", it doesn't automatically mean it's a bad pick like a lot of the mock draft fan sites will immediately claim thereafter.

Anyway, back to the current draft discussion: I do like what that NFL.com mock did in keeping 22 in our pocket while packaging picks to move up from 28. Seems like a nice way to guarantee essentially back-to-back picks if you move up to 21. Allows for either a double-dip at WR without any other WR-needy team jumping in, or to grab a value guy and a WR.

Problem is BCD80, those are only hypothetical trades that exist in your own head and assigning values to players based on what some guy named Walter (or any equivalent) posts on what is basically a fan site in the end. Sooner or later, the fan base will realize that Gute is really good at what he does, assigns values to players that are based on their great scouting department, and generally gets proven right in the end. He's done more than enough to earn the benefit of the doubt from all but the most staunch fans that still can't admit they were horribly wrong on the Gary pick and cling to grades assigned to draft picks by fan sites, who never actually go back and re-grade the drafts a few years later to see what picks were ACTUALLY As and which were Ds and Fs. In the end, Gute has more information, better scouting, and has largely proven smarter than us fans. Sooner or later we'll have to acknowledge that we're just completing pretend mock drafts and obtaining good 'grades', while he's actually building a good football team, as he has every year.

I can respect the distinction between 'wasted' and 'giving away' in that context. I had taken giving away as 'throwing away' or 'handing over with little merit' vs. 'trading away'. I think if the narrative is that Gute has shown willingness to give up a pick or two to move up to get a guy they have targeted, that's certainly fair and accurate. But, the narratives in some places on the internet has been spun to 'Gute is going to waste one or two of our first or second rounders', which I think is an unfair conclusion. Like Thompson, I think the current FO sees the value in 'taking more bites at the apple', but unlike his predecessor, they also see the value in sacrificing a mid-round pick to move up for a guy they have head and shoulders above the others on their board. And that's not a bad strategy at all. I think there's this belief that the Packers may (and some are arguing for reasons I don't understand, should) package their 1st to move up to the top-12 and take a player, which I don't agree with whatsoever. But, if they package a 3rd and one of the 4ths to jump up and grab a guy who slides, I have zero problem with that. In the scenario that started this conversation, the Packers ended up with one of the top-tier edge guys in Karlaftis, one of the best, IMO, plausible options at WR in Olave, and still had both seconds to draft Moore and Lucas. Two instant impact WR options, an excellent option for OT depth who will likely start at RT soon, and a potentially dominant edge guy in Karlaftis. Add in their remaining 4th and 5th, and you've had a HR draft on paper at the expense of an extra 4th that you already had and their 3rd.

Three 4th round picks in two total trades seems a pretty weak argument to further a "wasting draft picks via trade" narrative, especially when two of the three were used to target a guy that started from day 1 at a position of need, which I believe is the main complaint about using the other 4th to acquire the other guy. Considering the grand slams he hits in the early rounds otherwise, it's an odd narrative that I've seen from multiple people that seems fairly unreasonable.

The trade up was for Karlaftis, not Olave. And this isn’t the first time I’ve seen ‘Gute move’ implying wasting draft capital. Other than the 4th for Love, what are all these other moves to waste capital?

Updated NFL.com mock today has us trading 28 and a third to move up to 21 to take Karlaftis, then taking Olave at 22. Skyy Moore and Abraham Lucas in the 2nd, and that's a pretty great draft. https://www.nfl.com/news/four-round-2022-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-seahawks-saints-trade-into-top-five-for-qb

Olave seems the one possible 'slide' that could be there at 22, and if he is they should grab him. Otherwise, my gut says they take whatever guy inexplicably slides to that spot and they'll get immense value. Ala Bulaga, where no one thought he'd be there at 23. Then, hope London or Burks is there at 28. I just can't get a good feel for where guys like Pierce, Dotson, Pickens and Watson are ACTUALLY going to go. Most have them 'graded' as 2nds, but they're being mocked all over the place right now.

Regarding 2- I'd be very interested to see what happens if Zion Johnson or Tyler Linderbaum fall. You'd be getting immense value in the 20s for two stud-potential interior o-linemen. Edge becomes an easy pick if Jermaine Johnson falls. To your overall point, a lot of people seem to think that they'll take 2 WR, but it seems far more likely they'd grab BPA at 22 when someone unexpectedly falls, then rely on the immense WR depth in the 2nd to grab their guys there. Coupled with a modest trade back from 28 to the early/mid 30s and grabbing an extra pick, that could be quite effective.

I think that's fair. I think this played out because of the immense value that seems to be there at o-line in the late 2nd through 4th rounds.

Without a doubt, the most exciting 'no-trades' draft I've landed thus far. Olave and Burks in the first along with Bonitto and Lucas would be a monstrous haul in the 1st and 2nd, IMO.

I think that PFF has him ranked so high because of tools and potential, as I think he's a BIT undervalued otherwise because he switched to the OL position so late. I've seen stuff online about how pairing him with a brilliant o-line mind like Steno could yield amazing results. So it remains to be seen if PFF is just on him earlier than others or if they have him weirdly overvalued. In most of the simulations, you have to take him at 22 to get him, which I agree is a bit of a stretch. But, he seems like the classic Gute-type pick at 28 where the other talking heads think they reached for a 2nd-round type guy and then he has an all-pro caliber career at RT for the next 10 seasons.

Big fan of this one. A little o-line heavy perhaps, but that's how the board fell: