adambr2

Kind of apples and oranges, since the Cardinals didn't have the OF prospects in the pipeline last year that we have right now, and he's going to mostly DH in New York. Not to mention Santana WAS a considerably worse defender than Holliday last year.

Simply not true. If he hits, he'll be in our outfield. It's actually that simple. If his glove doesn't improve pretty dramatically, he's going to have to hit well above average to stay in RF. An .800 OPS isn't going to cut it in RF as the permanent guy if he's a defensive butcher.

Think so? I'm not as high on his D as advertised. Not yet, anyway.

Though team expectations aren't high this year, one thing that does get me excited about the team is that on the surface, when I look at the lineup, I think, "Wow, at first glance, there's a lot of possible upside". So is there? Even though some guys are obviously going to be closer to their floor than ceiling, I'm going to take a stab out of guessing what the ceiling is for every projected guy on our lineup and bench with an explanation included, as well as a "ballpark" of what their most prominent stats might be if they hit their respective ceilings. When I speak of "ceilings", I'm trying to stay in the realm of what I think might be realistically possible, even if unlikely, but I'm not going to try to predict any shocking unforeseen seasons like Tommy Harper for the 1970 Brewers. So here goes: LF Braun - .950 OPS, 6 WARP So this is obviously contingent on reports on his health being the best in years being true, him remaining healthy and holding off Father Time for another year. Hey, if he can, he's been this good before. CF Broxton, 20 HR, 60 SB, 6 WARP Yes, I think Broxton has a 6 WAR ceiling. His defense and baserunning can be that much of a boost. This is even assuming he hits no better than .250, which he probably won't. 20 HR and 60 SB is a stretch, but that's why they call it a ceiling. RF Santana, .900 OPS, 3.5 WARP Santana really needs to perform with the bat to reach his ceiling, as there isn't a lot of upside with his D. I do however think he can improve there in comparison to last season. 1B Thames, .900 OPS, 3.5 WARP Thames is just so hard to nail down a ceiling for, and frankly, I'm probably being a little too conservative on his simply because I really have no idea how his defense will be. Obviously, you can't translate his Korea performances and use it as a ceiling. 2B Villar, 20 HR, 60 SB, 4 WARP He's a similar player to Broxton -- better contact, probably a little bit inferior baserunning, but Villar falls short on the ceiling projection comparison because he'll never have the value at 2nd that Broxton can have in CF. A 4 WARP ceiling is based on him maintaining most of his offensive numbers from last season while also improving his defense as an everyday 2nd baseman. SS Arcia, .280 AVG, 15 HR, 3 WARP It feels a bit strange giving Arcia, our most highly touted prospect in awhile, the lowest projection so far, but it just seems like too much needs to come together too soon for a guy who is only 22. 3B Shaw, 30 HR, 3.5 WARP Shaw can be better than people think. He could be the Villar surprise player for 2017. Consider in 2015 he hit 13 HR in only 248 PAs, in a tough lefty environment at Fenway, and the 30 HR ceiling doesn't seem as bullish. If he hits that, and the defense is as good as advertised -- he can hit that ceiling. C Bandy, 15 HR, .725 OPS, 2.5 WARP The catchers are tough to project. Bandy's power seems somewhat intriguing with the 8 HR last year in limited PA's. His defense should be a plus. C Pina - .270 AVG, 2 WARP Pina's ceiling is even tougher to nail down than Bandy. Is he a journeyman, or a late bloomer? If he's a late bloomer, and ends up on the high end of the catching platoon, I could foresee a 2 WAR. IF/OF Perez .290 AVG, .800 OPS, 3.5 WARP There was a lot to like about Perez' 2016 season. He's very versatile, and his good D just about everywhere gives him good potential value. To hit his ceiling on WARP and OPS, he's going to need to improve the last big remaining weakness in his game -- the OBP. He's also going to need to see the lineup 4-5 days a week. IF/OF Gennett .290 AVG, 15 HR, 2.5 WARP Scooter hasn't ever hit more than 14 HR as an everyday 2nd baseman, so it's impossible for me to project more than 15, even as a ceiling, when he's likely to see a big cut in playing time. Even though they'll try to pass him off as a utility man, his defensive value limits his ceiling. OF Nieuwenhuis, 15 HR, 1.2 WARP Even though Captain Kirk put together a 0.6-1 WARP last year, depending on who you ask, his playing time should be limited enough to keep his ceiling from being much higher. To reach his ceiling, he'd need to get more playing time than expected based on struggles from one of the OF'ers or a Braun trade, and he'd need to be the first OF option off the bench ahead of Perez and Scooter.

It's Saturday, but talk about a spring Sunday lineup, lol. I've never heard of half these guys.

Well, Garza still sucks.

Bet you will not once in the regular season see him in the 2 hole starting in RF. Spring training reps mean little. I'm not saying he will not log a single inning there this year but Scooter simply doesn't have the arm strength to be anything more than an emergency or very rare opton in CF. If Santana were to go down with a season ending injury today Scooter would absolutely not become the everyday RF. I never said he would be the right fielder. Gennett is made to be a platoon specialist. Santana goes down and Brinson will be called up if it's after the super 2. I said Genett is being groomed to either play OF or INF based on the starting pitcher as a lefty vs rightys. Nothing else, nothing more. Capt Kirk will not make opening day because of this. You heard it here first. Not happening. Well, I'll be sure to give you props if it does, because I don't believe it for a second. Kirk is having a nice spring and has a much more solidified role on the roster. Scooter is a square peg in a round hole. I'm no Kirk N fan but they are not going to go with all backup outfielders that aren't even outfielders. This regime values outfield defense. The whole thing going on with Scooter is somewhere between a spring training attempt to find a taker for him and a science experiment.

Bet you will not once in the regular season see him in the 2 hole starting in RF. Spring training reps mean little. I'm not saying he will not log a single inning there this year but Scooter simply doesn't have the arm strength to be anything more than an emergency or very rare opton in CF. If Santana were to go down with a season ending injury today Scooter would absolutely not become the everyday RF.

As far as Susac's options go, his struggles in a sense work out pretty well for us in that we can keep the catching depth and it's pretty easy to justify sending him down without looking like we're holding him back just for his options. On the other hand, it's also a bit frustrating because Susac is the highest touted of the 3 and the one we'd hope would have come in and seized the job and forced our hand. Good chance he'll be up at some point, and he can probably force his way up anyway if he rakes in AAA.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gennett is gone. There just isn't going to be a lot of playing time for him. Just cutting him saves the club around $2M - not that the money is a huge deal. But $2 million bucks is still a decent chunk of change. But I'm betting someone will trade for Scooter - even if it's just a throwaway prospect. Are you sure? I thought Scooter had a fully guaranteed contract. It was my understanding that since his contract was given prior to arbitration, not actually awarded in the arbitration process, that the non -guaranteed aspect of arbitration contracts did not apply.

Scooter's noodle-arm in RF? Yikes. That's a good way to ensure any runner at 1st will wind up at 3rd on a hit to right. It would be very shortsighted of the Brewers to bench Arcia if he has a bad start to the year, unless they're just planning on sending him back to AAA for awhile.

Scooter has played a total of 1 inning his entire MLB career anywhere besides 2nd and now he's versatile? No, we just don't have a position for him, there's a big difference between that and versatility. Scooter was a mediocre defender at 2nd and we have no idea yet whether he can play adequately enough anywhere else to even be considered for a platoon. He's got a long ways to go before supplanting either Kirk as the preferred OF bench player or Perez as the preferred IF one.

Like what? The K's? If he played like he did in the second half he would be a perennial All-Star and likely MVP candidate, yes even with the 33% K rate. Broxton is always going to strike out a ton. That's not changing. Maybe he can get it down to the 28-30% range but even if he can't that doesn't change the fact that he can still be extremely valuable.

But there's the problem, no one is going to give that for him. They'll point to his first half last year and his lack of being a big time prospect coming up, and we'll point to how good he's been after the change in his swing. There's going to be such a gap in the perceived value of Broxton by us compared to anyone else right now that I think he's about the least likely guy on the roster to be shipped out anytime soon. Basically would take Kopech or Giloto from the Sox and they won't do that.

I agree with most of it but I do agree with Brew that Garza won't be DFA, not yet anyway. Since he's not blocking anyone of significance I'm not sure it makes great business sense to just dump him now when you're literally throwing 13M away by doing that. They'll try to salvage something for him, even if that's just riding it out with him until the end of July or August and seeing if he can do enough to at least just basically give him away to a rotation needy contender and save the last few million that he's owed the rest of the season. If he totally bombs the first half and it's obvious no one will have interest, I could see him being DFA'ed in July or August.

Given how good he has looked since changing his stance and how controllable he is, I would honestly need a top 20 overall MLB prospect to move Broxton right now, and even then it would depend who it was. I know no one is going to give that for him, but with the possibilities with him right now and with 6 years cheap control I see no reason for Stearns to sell short on him.

So the Brewers are winning 22-1 today. In the 5th inning.

Claimed off waivers by the Rays.

Filling the bullpen with Crack and Snow? Those are some serious drugs. LOL! Autocorrect strikes again, apparently my phone does not believe there is such a thing as 'Cravy.'

I was more just looking to build a roster off all pre-arby guys. Use $15M or whatever you need, I realize the salary limitation isn't going to be exact, plus there would be dead money from trades or releases.

Nah, but neither has Braun, and we still talk about that annually. 1st was a tough one. Thames wouldn't be eligible, Cooper isn't good enough, so I had to be creative. Santana and Cordell were really the only two that came to mind. Perez can play 1st but I wouldn't want to waste him there when he can play defensively anywhere.

So basically, all pre-arby guys. Not counting the inevitable salary we'd have to eat to trade some guys that have to go out, like Braun, Gennett, and Garza. 1) CF Broxton 2) 2B Villar 3) RF Brinson 4) 1B Santana 5) 3B Shaw 6) LF Phillips 7) SS Arcia 8) C Susac Bench : Perez, Pina, Cordell, Reed, Dejesus Rotation: Davies, Guerra, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff Bullpen: Knebel, Magnifico, Barnes, Suter, Snow, Marinez, Crack I'm not sure how many games this team would win but I think they'd be a lot of fun to watch. Woodruff is the only guy that seems like an obvious rush to me. Maybe Cordell. 1st was a bit of a challenge to try to figure that out as well.

1. Counsell doesn't have the final say on roster decisions. 2. Nieuwenhuis has a split contract this year which pays much less if he's in the minors, so they must have at least considered that he might not make the team. The question is who you'd want to be our 5th OF instead. Counsell absolutely has say in the roster decisions. Ultimately Stearns can override him, but I can't see Stearns ever doing that over the last couple spots on the bench unless he had a very good reason.

Well 4 of a kind is 12points and 31 would add 2 to that. That's my guess on a single play. 14points. When it comes to possible peg count in a round? The 4 of a kind scenario doesn't make sense for pairing cards to have something like the possible highest in a round. Well, unless your talking teams where you have 4players and often cards don't make sense because you only can discard 1. I dunno if it works this way but say a 3,2,A,A,A,A type of play finishing at 31. Would that add up as 4 runs of 3, 4 of a kind, plus 31? Or 26? What if you started 5,4 all the way back to the Aces. Point more per card But 2 handed you wouldn't get to 31. 3handed. Hmm, 3handed or 4 if you were allowed that 4 runs with 4 of a kind, you could start at 7 counting back to the 4 aces and total 31 at that point. So 4 runs of 7 plus 4 of a kind plus 31 would be 42 points total if played out that unlikely scenario? I've never really gotten how runs work when playing a hand. What makes a double run how the card order has to be. Like 5,6,4,6 that wouldn't be a double run correct? What about 6,5,4,6? Is that just 1 run or is it double? Is a double/triple run only possible when you go 4,5,6 another 6, and another 6? then or if you played a 4 are you at a double run 5,6,6,4. I didn't even think about multi player, hard enough figuring it out for 2. As far as I can tell, 15 is possible for a single peg (hit 4 of a kind, 15, and last card all on the same card). 30 can be done on a round if, for instance, both players have 6--6--7-7, if all the 7s are played first, the dealer will get 14 for 2,, 28 for 13 with the 4 of a kind and go, 12 for 2 and 24 for 13 with another 4 of a kind and last card for a total of 30. 4 player...I suppose if every player had A, 2, 4, and either 5, 6, or 7, then the A's, 2s, and 4s could be played in succession, followed by a go, then the other card. One player would peg an obscene 50 points and his team 58. For your last paragraph, a 5-6-4-6 would be nothing. But after the 5-6-4 that would be a run of 3. They don't have to be in order, but when you add in another 6, that breaks up the run. However if you added a 5 at the end for 5-6-4-6-5, that would be another run of 3 as 4-6-5 is a run since again they don't need to be in order. There are no double and triple runs while pegging. Just a run of anywhere from 3 to 7 for the same amount of points (A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) is the highest possible run without going over 31.

Sure, I'd have no problem with it. Had a really weird year last year with a nice ERA but terrible FIP. He did finish strong, so I don't know. He's obviously cheap and so if you can add him and stash a guy with options that otherwise would have made the roster, why not.