adambr2

The 2 Fangraphs projections for Braun have him as either a 1.9 or 1.7 WAR player in 2017, which would be a disturbing trend for a player nearing his mid 30s. You can understand why teams are hesitant to invest in him. I'm all for not taking a bad deal but I'd hate to see them turn down a decent deal just because it wasn't as much as they had hoped. I think it's very possible we end up kicking ourselves that the August deal did not get done.

Here's the possibie plans they have from my perspective. 1). Scooter backs up Villar Doesn't make much sense IMO. It's tough to carry a player just for 2nd, who isn't a good defender anyway. Scooter makes some sense as a platoon player, but Villar doesn't. Scooter is a lousy bench option. 2) Arcia begins in AAA, Scooter starts, Villar to SS There's a remote possibility that perhaps the Brewers want to keep Arcia down to start the year, either to buy more service time or because they truly think he's not quite ready. I'm not sure Arcia can benefit from anything more in AAA, but his MLB numbers wouldn't make it hard to justify. The Brewers have given no indication though that Arcia isn't in their MLB plans on opening day and they've clearly indicated an intent for Villar to start at 2nd. 3). Scooter is traded I still think this will happen. Scooter's contract, while an annoyance to us if we're unable to find a trade partner, isn't a trade hindrance. My guess is that Stearns probably wouldn't have tendered Scooter if he didn't have a pretty good feel for his market and think he would be tradeable. My guess would be he is shipped out in the late winter/early spring for almost nothing, a low level lottery ticket, but still better than nothing.

Mighty fine work there, I don't know if I can disagree with much of anything. That's a very exciting OF in Colorado Springs. There has been some talk of Dubon starting in Colorado Springs but I agree he'll begin in Biloxi, no real reason to push him at 22.

IMO the disproportionate amount of boos he gets just about everywhere else says otherwise.

$2 Million is still $2 Million. If it saves MA that money he can place it elsewhere. Just do not agree with you at all on this. Agree with Brew on this. If you make $300,000 a year and live in a $1,000 a month apartment, and they jack their rent up to $5,000, but you can get a similar place for the same $1,000, are you going to stay where you're at just because it still fits within your budget? No, you're either going to upgrade or find a similar place for less. Affordability is not the same thing as value. If we were only concerned about affordability we would have just tendered Carter. Value is equally crucial and I think Stearns is wise to that.

Agreed. I don't think he's probably the best fit for the Brewers right now, but the Brewers are probably the best fit for him. I'm pretty indifferent when it comes to the pitcher vs. DH argument, but it'd be a lot easier to hold onto Braun for 4 more years if we could DH him.

Not necessarily, and there's one of the flaws with the arbitration system. I'm sure it isn't designed this way and it doesn't happen often, but the discrepancy in the way the arbitration system values players (old school stats) and the way modern GMs value players (more value, WAR based), does once in awhile create a higher projected arbitration number than free agent value. This is a problem for teams because you either overpay the player on purpose or you non-tender them and risk them picking somewhere else in free agency if you wanted to keep them. It doesn't happen often but it happens, I'm trying to think of a good example. Dave Bush IIRC got a pretty obviously higher number in arby from us than his FA value at the time. It's not a great system. There's a theoretical 40/60/80 rule (40% of your FA value your first arby year, and so on). I think that's a great concept but unfortunately never actually works out that way because of the old school methodology of the arbitration panels. In free agency your market is whatever the highest paying GM thinks you can actually contribute. In arbitration your market is just whatever a few guys think of your raw numbers, guys who have no vested interest either way because they're not the ones paying you.

I'm totally with you on this. There is just nothing to tie Braun to Milwaukee at this point. He's not from here. His wife is not from here. His kids are so young that moving them would definitely not qualify as "uprooting" the family. The Brewers are not a good team and the earliest they will be a good team would probably be 2019. If they will be a good team it will probably all have to come from the farm system as this market will never provide enough money to lure big-time free agents here. All of his area restaurant businesses have seem to gone belly-up (not 100% sure about that, please correct me if wrong). His biggest endorsement deals in the states evaporated after the PED scandal. So what exactly is keeping him here, his love for the wonderful city of Milwaukee (LOL!). He isn't getting any younger and his window to win is getting short. Of all the major league franchises, the Brewers probably have just about the lowest odds of winning a World Series within the next four years. Not to mention that there is the possibility that he could guarantee himself another 11 million dollars if he can get the 2021 season turned into a player option. There appears to be a lot more reasons for Braun to leave than there is to stay. I don't know if it's so much loyalty as it is the fact that there are just not many great situations out there for Braun from his perspective, even if it's to go to a contender. Look, I know time has passed and it's tempting now to evaluate Braun's value solely on his numbers, but we just can't. He's generally not liked around baseball and still booed pretty much anywhere he goes. I know it's easy to believe that fans in a city will warm up to a guy once he's there, and it's probably true, but some GMs just don't want to take that chance, and I'm not sure Braun does either. The Orioles won't even consider Bautista solely on how much their fans dislike him. Does Braun, at this point in his career, want to spring to a new city and risk being generally disliked there the rest of his career. Does he want to go to a new clubhouse with players that perhaps played against him in the 2011 NLDS? With players that played with Kemp? Think of it from an opposing GM's perspective, too. 'What do my existing 24 other players think of this guy? Is it worth his salary to mix that into the clubhouse? Is my main trade acquisition this winter going to be booed in his own stadium every time he comes to the plate? That wouldn't be good.' Every GM even interested in Braun IS going to ask themselves these questions. It may not be the main consideration, but it is going to cross their minds. We often lump Braun in with the plenty of other PED users around the league, and I can understand why. It only seems fair. Unfortunately, that's just not reality. Too many other extenuating factors - the MVP award that year, the NLDS, the star he was at the time, the early acquittal first, the passionate expressions of innocence and the implication of the collector, etc. We can dislike it or think it's unfair all we want, but Braun is essentially the poster boy, well, the #2 behind A-Rod, for PED shame this decade. Yes, it's probably unfair, but it's the way it is. Right now, Ryan Braun isn't in position to play for a championship anytime soon. But he IS in a place that he's comfortable and familiar, where he's still well-respected in the clubhouse, and still (generally) loved by the fanbase. He's probably not going to win a championship here in the next 4 years, but he's going to be able to quietly ride off into the sunset and let more time pass for the sports world to forget about his indiscretions as he retires a Brewer legend. He's not, IMO, going to risk any of that for anything other than what he perceives as a perfect situation, and he certainly isn't going to go to just any contender.

Yeah I agree, but I also think he's perfectly content to ride out his career in Milwaukee if he doesn't get the select few destinations that he's willing to go to.

Problem is it has to be a someone that Braun would rather play at than Milwaukee.

I agree with most of this. I've been somewhat in the camp of 'trade Braun now while you still can,' but if you can't get much for him, it's not worth dumping him and eating salary just to get something. He's still presumably tradeable in a year if he maintains simular production and health. I'm more concerned about who he is blocking. We're pretty loaded with OF prospects that are going to need to play, and with Brinson, Broxton, Santana, Phillips, and Cordell (not to mention guys like Ray and Clark who are still a couple years away), it's hard for me to imagine only being able to guarantee two open spots in the OF for the next 4 years. Braun would make an ideal DH, but unfortunately that's not an option for us, obviously.

Is Nelson+Scooter worth anything in trade? I'd have to think Scooter's value is almost negligible relative to his salary, no idea where Nelson is at now after that year. Chase is probably more tradeable, to me, than Nelson. Tough to sell that low on Nelson after what he looked like the first couple month last year.

My best guess is we'll win close to 70-75 if we keep Braun, closer to 65-70 if we trade him. There is no way Counsell is going to tank a team and I agree that would be a bad option. Depending on how obvious it was it would be more damaging in backlash from the fan base and bad PR than it would be worth those extra 5-10 draft spots anyway. Typically in an MLB draft there isn't even enough difference between 5 spots or so to even make tanking a worthwhile strategy. Rebuilding does not equal tanking. Counsell should and will take whatever 25 players he is given every day and try to win as many games as possible with them. That's his job, and that should be our mentality.

It's called reading quickly when you are busy. I went to the Twins page on BR, not realizing the ages of the payroll page that came up first were ages next season. Then I typed in Braun in the search bar and looked at the last line. Don't ever accuse me of that. Seriously? You make the mistake, I politely point out that it's happened before, and you get mad at me for even mentioning it. Like I said, everyone makes mistakes, I only brought it up because I knew it had happened a couple times recently. I do think it's important to verify your data. That's how misinformation gets spread. I'll own up to it when I do the same. It was never a big deal to me, I simply was saying as an aside, 'Hey, I'd verify your numbers more often.' Perhaps it was a stretch for me to suggest that you were fudging numbers on purpose, and if you were offended by that, I do apoligize, but there's no need to flip out on me for YOUR mistakes.

There you go. On the nose. Agreed. Use as many avenues/resources as you can because it'll be a long time before this team is complete trash again and I happily say that. I actually think we might take a small step back next year, especially if Braun is traded. Not top 3 but maybe borderline top 5, then once our upper level prospects start contributing more in 2018-2019 start to see some major improvements. Hope I'm wrong though. The bullpen is a major work in progress right now with Jeffress Thornburg and Smith all gone in the last year, I think we're very likely for some regression there.

I respectfully feel many here overrate Braun pretty substantially. While it's true he's still a very nice hitter, and that has value, that's about where his value ends. He doesn't play a premium position and his corner outfield is...passable, if I'm being very generous. There's just too big of a gap between his 2015-16 value and his 2011-12 value for me to look at him as that kind of player anymore. He's clearly unlikely to ever be that player again. At this point, he's a good hitter with about a 135-140 game ceiling every year, who could probably benefit from playing in the AL. His contract is not an albatross, but it's not the helpful bargain that some make it out to be. Smart GM's aren't looking to dole out high prospects for a pricey 4 year commitment to a 33 year old with frequent injuries who already can't be counted on for more than 140 games.

Dozier is 30 and has a career OPS of .762. He had a career year last year (.886 OPS), but that was the only time in his career that his OPS has been over .762. Highly likely that last year was an outlier. Braun is 32 and has a career OPS of .910, and .903 last year. Last year was an average year for Braun, and his worst season was better than all but one of Dozier's seasons (last year). Yes, Dozier is making far less money, but he is not in the class of hitter that Braun is. I doubt that being unwilling to give up De Leon for Dozier means anything about whether or not they would give him up for Braun. Braun is 33 not 32, and Dozier is 29 not 30, but that's not really the point here. But on a couple occasions you seem to fudge numbers a bit to make your argument stronger, not really sure why. Everyone makes mistakes but that seems kind of deliberate, just pointing it out. Anyway, there is more to value than just determining who is a superior hitter. Dozier plays a much more premium position (and has solid defensive metrics.) Slugging corner outfielders, while valuable, can't be compared to a 40 HR middle infielder. He also doesn't have a stigmatized past or really any history of injuries. He's almost 4 years younger and far cheaper, which you kind of said as an aside but which is actually a very big deal. Dozier is owed 15M over 2 years, Braun 76M over 4 years. That is a massive difference for a team like the Dodgers that have to pay 50 cents on the dollar extra for whatever they pay Braun. Dozier is a far more attractive trade investment to a team like the Dodgers and it isn't really close IMO.

Dodgers apparently don't want to part with DeLeon for Dozier, so you can imagine how willing they will be to do so for Braun.

What others said. Scout well and get lucky, that's all we can do. Trout wasn't even a top 20 pick, lot of teams passed on him. Luck has a lot to do with it. If you're drafting #1, some drafts have your Bryce Harper types who are as close to a sure thing as you can get, but these are rare. Most drafts don't have one of those types. The 2016 draft didn't. Maybe Brinson, Diaz, or Ray will turn out to be that guy, it's just too early to say. Some guys flop and others turn out much better than you expect. Hard to believe it with a guy like Jonathan Lucroy, but he was never even a top 100 prospect. Sometimes it's just a crapshoot.

I don't think it was really about sweetening the pot. Drew Gagnon is the definition of a non-prospect Journeyman minor leaguer. In terms of trade value, he's got none. I would even argue that with all the arms we have in MiLB, his roster spot is worth more than his production. Bandy has all the tools to be a really solid backup catcher, and he has 6 years of control. As a bonus, he's got quite a bit of pop for a backup catcher.. If Susac doesn't pan out, he's a great fallback, Maldonado isn't. I mean if you look at the MiLB numbers and scouting reports, Bandy might very well turn out to be a .700 OPS catcher with a solid glove. There's value in that for sure. The money saved through Maldonado's arbitration years is also a factor. Money saved is money saved. No, we're not hard up for a million bucks, but Stearns isn't concerned about affordability, he's concerned about value. And that's a very good thing. This is a forward thinking move that I think we'll be happy about in the end.

Dodgers are supposedly in on Dozier. If they get him, considering what they'll have to give up, you have to think anything with them and Braun is dead in the water.

It's going to take us eating a very significant portion of Braun's remaining contract for the Dodgers to likely be interested at this point.

How do we know they didn't put in a claim on him. I was under the impression they did because we were trying to trade him to them. It was reported at the time that he went unclaimed. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rosenthals-latest-dodgers-brewers-braun-puig-d-backs.html

Why are people so convinced that Braun would do so much better in FA than his current deal? If the contract is so attractive, I'll just ask why the Dodgers didn't put in a claim on him. Why? They spend gobs of money already, they had the need, they were in playoff contention. If the contract was a bargain, why didn't they claim him? I know people like to point out what Fowler got at $16.5 per, but Fowler has a considerably higher combined fWAR the last 4 years, and doesn't come with the stigma of a prior scandal attached. He's also 3 years younger. Yeah, Braun has the better career track record if you want to go back to 2012 and before, but at some point, age has to become a strong consideration. How many 33 year old position players land a 20M+ contract in free agency? Names? When a team makes a contract offer, they're betting on what you'll do in the future, they're not rewarding you for your past. Few teams would bet strongly on Braun putting together 4 straight highly productive and healthy seasons for the next 4 years. I would bet on him being about 4/80 at this point in his career and I think he'd have to be pretty happy with that. No one is giving Braun 30M a year. Not a chance.

Yeah, I mean it's all situation dependent. I'm not advocating shopping Arcia, but I think you have to keep an open mind to everything at all times. What if the White Sox offered Quintana for Arcia? I'm not saying they would and I'm not necessarily even saying we should do that, but I sure wouldn't shoot it down without some real careful consideration. Everyone should always be considered tradeable, you never know what opportunities will arise. I'm sure we weren't openly looking at trading a prospect last year (Cy Sneed), but we did and we ended up getting a pretty good young player.