Do you really think we went from 20th or so in overall talent last year to top 3, just like that? Just by adding Garza? Thornburg is good, Davis is okay, and Will Smith was a nice acquisition. I can't overstate the historical fallacy of declaring a division race over less than a quarter into the season. "I think we will win the division" and "This is going to be over by the end of April" are two way different things. I think it's about 50/50 that we make the playoffs right now as of this very moment. That's a lot better than I figured before the season, so I'll take it. There's nothing wrong with being optimistic, but it's not particularly credible when you twist every possible scenario in favor of the Brewers (their bats will come around, they can do more offensively than this), and completely ignore the flip side (guys like K-Rod, Duke, and Smith are pitching over their heads, and most of the rotation is likely to face a bit of a dropoff by season's end). Could we win the division? Sure, it could happen. Will we be in 1st every day from now until the end of the season? I tend to doubt it. St. Louis, unfortunately, is much much better than you are giving them credit for. They did not go from NL Champs to middling .500 team in the last year. They will go on a run at some point. It's not if, but when, and we'll have to ride that out to keep our lead. This is still a fairly loaded division. Don't let the early season records fool you. Anyone besides the Cubs could go on a run and get back in it at some point.