To me, the entire concept of having to wait years to judge a trade is not much more than a defense mechanism fans use to defend it if the trade is looking really bad. Are there really Marlin fans out there saying they need to wait and see if the Yelich trade looks horrible because Monte Harrison is only 25 and has only had 57 big league PAs, and Yelich is following up a lost season with an injury-riddled one? The Grisham trade looks horrible right now, and it's ok to say that. You just do so with the caveat that things can change over time, but that doesn't prevent you from evaluating to this point. We're 18 months removed from the trade. It didn't happen last week. And even IF, even IF Urias becomes AS good as Grisham (highly unlikely), Grisham is still the better value, because his production to this date helped his new team. That's something that seems to be missed looked at these. Grisham and Davies producing for the Padres mattered. Davies being really good last year helped convince the Cubs to take him on in a Darvish deal. That mattered. Do we not consider the Travis Shaw trade to be a homerun just because he completely flamed out in '19? No, it was still a homerun. We got two 4 WAR seasons at 3B out of Travis Shaw, and that mattered. I think to a degree, some Brewer fans have so much respect and admiration for what Stearns did his first 3 years here (understandably), that they still can't quite believe that Stearns would make some big mistakes. I think there's some "Stearns-magic" mentality, and some believe that, if David thought enough of Urias and Lauer to make this deal, we just have to wait, it's going to work out. It might just not. The guy makes mistakes too. It happens. I'm not saying it's over, but I think our own optimistic expectations are a bit unrealistic. Yes, there is a greater than zero chance that Eric Lauer develops into a left handed ace. There is a greater than zero chance that Urias becomes a perrenial all-star caliber SS. There is a greater than zero chance that Leo Crawford becomes a stud MLB pitcher and makes me look silly for calling him a non-prospect. But when you look at the overall field of possible outcomes, the mean of all the likely scenarios are closer to this trade not looking much or any better 2-3 years from now, than they are to anything I listed above happening.