adambr2

Really disappointing effort. Up 13 in the 2nd half against a shorthanded Heat team without Butler, that's a game you need to put away. This one really takes a lot of the fun out of last night's big win. I'm really trying hard to buy into the narrative that this is a better team than the last two seasons and we'll see it once they gel, but they are really not making it easy.

When did Thanasis become a regular part of the rotation rather than a guy on the team to make Giannis happy?

Giannis is off to a bit of a slow start this season. (I say as he's just about at a triple double halfway through the 3rd quarter.)

As you say, reasonable people can disagree but Contreras seems like a lot more of a sure thing for the cost than anything we'll get in free agency for the price. You quoted $14-15M for 2 years of Contreras which is probably right . We spent I believe roughly that amount trying to shore up 1B and 3B just last season between Smoak, Sogard, Morrison, Holt and Gyorko and generally ended up with just a lot of dead weight on the roster. I'll take the 2 years of the almost certain productive player for that price over the handful of journeymen.

Pat Connaughton seems like a guy that would annoy the crap out of me if I was a fan of the other team.

For some retrospective, here is a top 20 Brewer prospect list from 2015. 1) Orlando Arcia 2) Tyrone Taylor 3) Monte Harrison 4) Clint Coulter 5) Taylor Jungmann 6) Devin Williams 7) Taylor Williams 8) Tyler Wagner 9) Kodi Medeiros 10) Jorge Lopez 11) Wei Chung Wang 12) David Goforth 13) Victor Roache 14) Gilbert Lara 15) Jason Rogers 16) Kyle Wren 17) Miguel Diaz 18) Jacob Gatewood 19) Tyler Cravy 20) Jed Bradley https://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/2/7482797/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2015 Of this entire list, only Orlando Arcia has turned out to be an everyday starter, and not a good one. There is one single name from this list -- Devin Williams, that would suck to see on another roster. One. Other than that, it's a whose who of flameouts, bench players, and one year filler back end bullpen arms. And even Williams didn't emerge until this season. These guys are way, way more miss than hit.

It's hard to know what to think yet. This guy spurned us multiple times. What was the reasoning? Just that Seattle was a better fit at the time, or he has no interest in being here? If its the former and he's excited to be a part of trying to win a championship, welcome to Green Bay. If it's the latter, I don't want him.

He said he had no interest in being claimed off waivers, so we'll see where this goes. You would think we had spoken to his camp before making this move but we'll find out soon.

Well it isn't the season any of us envisioned but at least they end it on a positive note.

Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can. I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something. I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years. I agree with this 100%. You can't automatically assume that a guy like Turang is future perennial all-star. You weigh that possibility and your own talent evaluation and decide whether that's worth giving up for the player you get in return. Stearns and co. have rarely if ever given up a guy that really haunts us in the way you fear. I think the difficulty of a prospect even having a productive MLB career, much less becoming a star, is often underestimated. Look no further than Brinson/Diaz/Harrison/Yamamoto. Truthfully, it was probably even on the low probability side that all would make it to the big leagues, which they all did. But it goes to show how much difference there is between a scouting report and what actually happens. "Future 30/30 player" sounds impressive in a prospect evaluation, but there's a big difference between that and having it actually happen. We've finally struck gold with a few pitchers in recent years, but it took years of churning out Eric Arnetts, Jed Bradleys, Taylor Jungmanns, and many others. Of course, there's always a chance you gave up the next Burnes or Woodruff. So you weigh that carefully in your risk/reward analysis and as you say, Stearns has done well in not giving up anyone who proved later to be a pivotal loss.

Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can. I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something. I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years.

Great performance vs. a bad team, then unrealistic expectations reared their ugly head.... I don't think they even met the expectations of those who kept their expectations modest after that game.

I remember watching Mertz just light up the world in the opener and thinking that this season had so much promise. What the heck happened?

It depends what you're judging it against. Obviously people are going to have different opinions but I don't think anybody praising it is suggesting it's a nice place to take the family for an inexpensive meal, you take them to Culvers instead. I definitely wouldn't put "inexpensive meal" and "Culvers" in the same sentence. I could just take the family to a sit down family restaurant for cheaper.

I too doubt that he goes to the Brewers or any NL Central team, but I've always thought the whole "don't trade him to a division rival" thing is dumb. Just take the best offer you can get. If the Cubs are rebuilding anyway, what do they care what Contreras does for us the next 2 years?

Small is almost 24 and has less than 20 innings above the rookie ball level. As prospects go, he's still much closer to a lottery ticket than a sure thing. Still, I agree about not willing to pay much for Candelario. Looking at the body of work for his entire career it's hard not to think his 2020 season was a mirage.

Man, it would suck to see Feliciano and Turang as Cubs in the future... That would really suck. Of course. But it would suck a lot less if Contreras helped fix the offense and we won the division the next couple years and made deep playoff runs. He's a really good player and the offense as constructed last year wasn't nearly good enough. Got to give something to get something.

Fair to note that Butler is out for this one. Still, fantastic half.

A little extra motivation in this game. I like it.

Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.

It does seem to be a buyer's market this year with trades. If the best the Brewers can do is similar to what the Cubs got for Darvish (an average #4 starter and a bunch of lottery tickets) then I'd prefer the Brewers just hang on to Hader and go for the championship in a watered-down division. Heck I'd go all-in on our bullpen by keeping Hader and signing either of Liam Hendricks or Brad Hand.

We would be fortunate to get Cronenworth for Hader straight up. I don't know what has happened with the Padres' previous moves that would make us think we're going to be able to take them to the cleaners for Hader. Hader simply isn't valued the way that we would like to see in a trade. If you want to see an arms race, then put Woodruff or Burnes on the block.

Who did we need to protect that required us to drop Christian Wood again?

Best double dip tandems: 1) Rodgers/Adams 2) Mahomes/Hill 3) Allen/Diggs 4) Murray/Hopkins 5) Mahomes/Kelce Honorable mention: Wilson/Metcalf, Herbert/Allen

Also, Darvish is owed around $60 million for the next three seasons. That doesn't help. But Hader is going to be rather expensive (as relievers go) himself the next 3 years, and obviously isn't as valuable as an ace. Also, the Cubs are picking up some of Darvish's salary, so it's not $60 million owed by the Padres.