I'm not following this logic at all. Yes, you just need one out. So wouldn't you want to face a pitcher who gives you far and away the best chance at getting that one out? The optimal move would have been to walk Bellinger to get to Grandal. Set up a force at third or second and face a struggling hitter. Walking the bases loaded? Hell no ... and I don’t care if the pitcher was up or not. Guerra was tiring and he’s a breaking ball pitcher. There would have been a high probability of a ball going in the dirt. Remember ... MACHADO WAS IN SCORING POSITION IN THE FIRST PLACE DUE TO A WILD PITCH! Game over if there’s another one. Given how tired he was and the stakes, there was a decent probability he might walk the pitcher, who, given the situation, would be ordered not to swing the bat. Game over at that point. I saw one analyst surmise that he could have thrown BP fastballs and got the out. I find that dubious, and even so, are you willing to stake a playoff game on that? I think the only thing Counsell should have done was walk Bellinger. Everything else is 20/20 hindsight at its worst. Bellinger was "struggling" too, so no your logic here is flawed. 1 for 21 entering that AB. Simple solution to your concerns about Guerra, put in Cedeno. Guerra wasn't going another inning anyway. If Cedeno can't throw 3 pitches in the strike zone, well, too bad, but there's sure a lot better chance at Bellinger or Grandal coming up with a single. Am I willing to stake a playoff game on being able to retire a pitcher? Uh, yeah, a lot more so than that same exhausted pitcher being able to retire a position player. And it's not "20/20 hindsight" whatsoever as people were saying to do this at the time and Counsell himself said that Grandal was going to be walked to load the bases next.